KT Rolster -385 vs Team Liquid +267
EDward Gaming -345 vs MAD Team +246
Flash Wolves -385 vs Phong Vu +267
Afreeca Freecs -526 vs G2 eSports +344
Royal Never Give Up -667 vs Cloud 9 +410
Gen.G eSports -556 vs Team Vitality +358
We've finally arrived at the main event! Historically week one is much more prone to upsets so if you are a believer in any of these underdogs I'd suggest firing off your lottery tickets in the first meeting between two teams. Part of the reason is beause these teams have often never played against each other and sometimes teams have a very specific strategy employed to take advantage of the best of one (double round robin) format. There's a few that I like and will be placing wagers on but it should be noted that I don't actually think any of these upsets are particularly likely. I'll actually be running a number of diversified parlays of the favorites. I won't list all of them but stuff like the full slate all favorites as a six team parlay.
Since these numbers are so out of whack in a lot of these situations you could make an argument to just go really small wagers on every underdog. If you consider how many "upsets" have typically happened on week one in the past depending on which teams you ranked where, you probably would have done pretty well with this strategy in years past but I wasn't betting then and don't really know how the lines looked then so I've got absolutely no numbers to support this. It's just a thought.
I'll write a little on each matchup as well as a rough percent chance I give the underdog to win the match.
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KT Rolster vs Team Liquid
To me KT Rolster are the best team in the tournament. Not everyone agrees with me on that but almost everyone has them in the Top 2 or 3 and one of the favorites to take the whole thing down. Team Liquid have a decent shot at Top 8 to me and I think could feasably get out of this brutal group. If you like Liquid to upset I think it will happen on Day 1 and no other time. Personally I don't like them to win this.
TL Chance of Victory: 25%
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EDward Gaming vs MAD Team
If this was G-Rex it'd be a little more interesting to me but I think MAD Team are a little weaker and EDG will likely just run this team over in a really fast win. I'd consider the UNDER on this but I'm going to wait another day.
MAD Chance of Victory: 5-10% (likely on an EDG throw more than their own proactivity)
PROP: UNDER 33:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
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Flash Wolves vs Phong Vu
I usually like betting the unknown and I think stylistically if Phong Vu were anything like most of the teams we've seen from their region I'd actually like this value a lot but they don't appear to be similar to previous Vietnemese squads in style. I still kind of like their potential to upset here. There really isn't a lot on this squad and for as good as Flash Wolves can be we don't know which of the two faces of FW will show up here. I like Phong Vu for a unit.
Phong Vu Chance of Victory 30-40%
Moneyline: Phong Vu +285 (1 unit)
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Afreeca Freecs vs G2 eSports
Afreeca are, as mentioned in my Group Stage Predictions and Pre-Tournament Rankings a well-coached and well-prepared team against stronger competition than G2 who looked slightly shaky during the Play-In. Now they were trying some things out which I respect and could make it tougher to prepare for them but I think Afreeca just outclass them a bit too much here. I wouldn't fault you for thinking Wunder and Perkz could hang but I'm staying away.
G2 Chance of Victory: 20%
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Royal Never Give Up vs Cloud 9
I just don't see it folks. I mean if you think RNG are going to troll and punt one that's fine but I think this team has made a habit of trashing mediocre teams and on the international stage I can't see C9 as more than that.
C9 Chance of Victory: 10%
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Gen.G eSports vs Team Vitality
So I've been a Vitality hater all year but hear me out here. I actually think sticking to your guns and playing the way you know how to can be a potent weapon on the Worlds Stage. We've seen it before with Week 1 C9 in 2016, LMQ, SK Telecom, Albus Nox Luna, and others. Vitality know who they are and they're extremely good at it. Coincidentally their uptempo style can really punish a team that prefers, almost to a fault, to slow play like Gen.G. Now Gen.G showed a new side during the gauntlet but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them revert to how they've prefered to play over the past two calendar years. They even did it in groups last year. They didn't turn it up until the Brackets. This smells like an upset to me even if I'm not high on Vitality it's a stylistic mismatch.
Vitality Chance of Victory: 40-50%
Moneyline: Team Vitality +358 (1-2 units)
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