First of all wow.... What an insane day of upsets yesterday. It wasn't a complete disaster betting wise as at least a few of our over/unders hit but we missed on every parlay. I got pretty lucky I didn't put more down on those because my book actually stopped taking parlay wagers on certain games yesterday (might be a bug who knows). Anyway, bank error in my favor, don't lose too much!
Going into today we need to resist the urge to assume constant upsets. Yesterday was an outlier, not for this tournament specifically, but just in general. I alos think the inconsistency of three of the teams in that group really showed through. I should have maybe given more credit to possible variance as the variety of outcomes for that group was pretty wide open. I probably should have thuoght about this but hey, hindsight is 20/20.
I'll take a moment to say to that this is why I was so mad when Gen.G got this spot. Griffin and Kingzone died for this? Seriously? Gen.G are infuriating and while I don't think they're a bad team or anything they are a frustrating team. I've lost a ton of money to them this year and they've eliminated teams that are both better and that I like more multiple times in the past two years. I probably should have put them in a tier with Afreeca and EDG, they were too inconsistent and one dimensional to be put into the tier one like I put them in. The top three teams in this tournament to me are KT, RNG, and IG. IG has inconsistencies but their style is much more suited to this tournament. These three are better than Gen.G and I should have tiered them as such.
Is Cloud 9 this good? I honestly don't think so. Their bot lane is extremely weak and they've had their pick of tier one champions the entire tournament and still haven't done well. Licorice has been a candidate for tournament MVP so far, he's carried this team almost by himself and it's incredibly impressive. I think come best of five time Cloud 9's drafts will be exposed. Sneaky is too much of a liability over a five game series and while I think their win over RNG was not a fluke I do think that this is a hosue of cards just waiting to fall and nobody in this group exposed their shaky foundation. I'm happy for the Cloud 9 faithful but as it stands right now, unless something drastic changes, I can't see them winning a best of five against ANYBODY that could conceivably make the Top 8.
One more thing I'd like to mention is that the new format with no breaks between days one through four and week two perhaps should have been factored in more going into this. Korean teams historically have been the best at using information and making adjustments for week two, it's why they almost always bounce back in week two even when they have had rough starts. It's almost every LCK team that has done this too not just specific ones. I think that mattered a lot more for this specific day than others. I'm not making excuses for Gen.G just mostly commenting so that I can remind myself that I maybe should have given this more consideration.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afreeca Freecs -125 vs Flash Wolves -101
G2 eSports -200 vs Phong Vu Buffalo +153
Flash Wolves -222 vs G2 eSports +171
Afreeca Freecs -714 vs Phong Vu Buffalo +452
Flash Wolves -625 vs Phong Vu Buffalo +413
Afreeca Freecs -250 vs G2 eSports +191
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afreeca Freecs vs Flash Wolves
The hip thing to do here would be to go with the Flash Wolves because "the gap is closing" and I feel people will overreact to the results of yesterday but unlike Gen.G who have a history of "playing down" to their competition, Afreeca are almost always well-prepared and have the correct read on the metagame to make the adjustments. Flash Wolves came in with a strategy that was sort of the opposite of how they played all year domestically but now that the cat is out of the bag with this bruiser/tank composition they've been running I'm trusting Afreeca to make the correct adjustments.
Additionally I'll just say it now, I expect Afreeca to win out in this group. IF you think that Gen.G being knocked out might scare them or the psychological edge of having all the pressure of the home crowd on them is something you believe in then bet against them tomorrow but I'm trusting Korea to be itself. Even though we don't have a true "Week 2" Afreeca are likely to use the time off they've had to make the right adjustments because they've had a couple days and have seen how teams might choose to attack them.
Moneyline: Afreeca -112 (2 units) (I got this at -112 and it immediately moved to -125 I'd still take this at -125)
PROP: UNDER 35:00 @ -114 (1 unit)
PROP: UNDER 18.5 (I'd like this more at 19.5 so I'm going to wait to see if it goes there, if it does 1 unit)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
G2 eSports vs Phong Vu Buffalo
Similar to Cloud 9, G2 have really blatant draft flaws that haven't really been too exposed yet. They've been punished more than C9 but still not much. Phong Vu just seem kinda bad to me I'll be honest. Ignore the win/loss record and just look at the numbers and overall play. It's really unorganized and statistically you'd think they had to get lucky to get a win. Did they outplay G2? Yea but I don't think that will happen again. At -200 I'm actually going to play this for a unit.
Moneyline: G2 -200 (1 unit)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Flash Wolves vs G2 eSports
This is another situation where people are going to want to slam G2 and ride the upset momentum from yestesrday. I don't think that's a good reason to bet G2 but if you want to look at the previous game between these two you could see some reasons to like G2. If you're going to bet an upset tomorrow I think this is the window to do so. Do I think G2 is a better team than the Flash Wolves? Not at all but I do think Flash Wolves have only shown one strategy and with some time to prepare I could see teams cooking up aw ay to beat it. That said, Flash Wolves could next level this and come out with something more aggressive and in the style that they played most of this calendar year. It wouldn't surprise me. I'm avoiding this game but if you believe in value you can put a small wager on G2 because I think this is probably closer to 50/50 than not.
NO ACTION
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Afreeca Freecs vs Phong Vu Buffalo
Like I mentioned earlier, after watching the film from these Buffalo games again I honestly feel like they were gifted their win and in their losses they looked lost and had no sense of how to get back in. If I spotted this then I'm assuming Afreeca, who have a history of great preparation and coaching, will have seen it coming too and have the right plan in place to easily win this one. That said the line is too rich for my blood but the under 18.5 and 29 minutes might be a bit too much of a push for how Afreeca like to slow down and 1-3-1 sometimes so I'll wait until I see better numbers, otherwise I'm avoiding any wagers that aren't including this in a parlay.
NO ACTION
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Flash Wolves vs Phong Vu Buffalo
Similar to last game, I just don't see it. Going into this tournament I didn't expect much from Phong Vu but then some people I respect insisted they could be a sleeper. I was willing to respect that but from what I've seen I don't think this team is going to do anything. They're not used to this level of competition and they don't appear to be a team capable of effectively playing from behind. Flash Wolves are the strongest early game team in this group if you look at how they've played all year and if you look at the first meeting, I'd expect something similar. I expect a fast, clean blowout here.
PROP: UNDER 20.5 total kills @ -114 (1.5 units)
PROP: UNDER 30:00 @ -114 (1.5 units)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afreeca Freecs vs G2 eSports
I love Afreeca in this game already and unless they're eliminated in the same fashion that Gen.G was then this could be a slam dunk play. -250 is a bit rich but I might actually put a couple units on it anyway. I'm going to wait until we see the games tomorrow to see how these odds move. If G2 loses their first game or two this line could get out of hand but if they win and Afreeca lose one of their earlier games this could approach 50/50 and we coudl collect some value on Afreeca.
NO ACTION (waiting on any unexpected results to see if we can get value)
No comments:
Post a Comment