Rogue Warriors (-278, -1.5 @ +116, M1 -213, M2 -227, M3 -185)
@ (Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 21.5)
JD Gaming (+206, +1.5 @ -152, M1 +161, M2 +169, M3 +141)
Royal Never Give Up (-909, -1.5 @ -185, M1 -455, M2 -455, M3 -370)
@ (Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 22.5)
TopSports Gaming (+524, +1.5 @ +140, M1 +309, M2 ++311, M3 +261)
Invictus Gaming (-1250, -1.5 @ -213, M1 -500, M2 -588, M3 -500)
@ (Over/Under 32:00, Total Kills 20.5)
LGD Gaming (+659, +1.5 @ +160, M1 +326, M2 +377, M3 +326)
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Handicapped: Rogue Warriors -1.5 maps @ +116 (5 units)
Prop: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
I think this line is an overreaction to Rogue Warriors losing their last three games but this has a couple of layers to it. RW honestly look like they mailed it in the second they clinched their #2 seed because they started losing once they got to 13 wins because it wasn't possible for RNG or Suning to catch them and Invictus had gotten to 15. If you look at their drafts they've been experimenting with carry tops and different mid lane picks like Vladimir, Taliyah, and Viktor for Doinb as well as Kaisa for SmLz.
"But Gelati, that strangely coincides with the introduction of patch 8.5, maybe they just can't play that well in the new meta?"
This is the stronger argument than the "they've lost their last three and are in free fall." Rogue Warriors are a great team, and to me they're the second best team in a very competitive LPL this season. They tried some things and they could likely do that again but the difference is that this time they aren't playing against teams like RNG and Suning who were battling for playoff seeding while trying new things. JD were a promising team early in the season but this is ultimately a mid tier team. I expect Rogue Warriors to get back on track and head into playoffs with the confidence of an absolute stomping against JD who have shown an inability to snowball games often sticking to the "scale and protect the Loken" plan. RW aren't going to let that happen whether they're trying new things or not.
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Handicapped: RNG -1.5 maps @ -185 (3 units)
With a win and a Suning loss RNG have now locked the #3 seed in the East but also cannot catch #2 Rogue Warriors with one game remaining. This would normally be a tough spot for RNG to get up for this game since there's literally no implication for either team but I trust RNG to thoroughly stomp bottom dwellers TopSports and unlike RW, RNG aren't on a losing streak going into playoffs and in need of a "get right" game. RNG had an excellent performance against RW and I trust they'll want to keep momentum rather than resting starters or getting a 1-3 game sample of something more experimental. If I'm RNG I want to keep rolling right into playoffs and not mess with a good thing you've got going but I'm going to limit this wager because it's completely reasonable for them to just punt this to not give any relevant film to playoff opponents. I actually don't dislike fading here and getting +140 on the +1.5 for TopSports if you believe in the "this doesn't matter" or "this is TopSports Super Bowl" factor but I still think even with that factored in that an RNG 2-0 is most likely. #Week9problems
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Handicapped: Invictus Gaming -1.5 maps @ -213 (2 units)
I really should abstain from this bet because I just have a gut feeling that the newly feisty LGD could steal a game here but this Invictus team is like the terminator. In every single "let down" game scenario this season they've just obliterated the opposition and it'd be really strange for them not to do so in the last game before playoffs. If you LOVE really heavy underdogs this is as good a spot as any but I'm going to trust the Invictus Terminators.
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Turkish Champions League Playoffs
1907 Fenerbahce (-588, -1.5 @ -222, M1 -278, M2 -588, M3 -500)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 21.5)
Team AURORA (+328, +1.5 @ +149, M1 +190, M2 +196, M3 +193)
Handicapped: 1907 Fenerbahce -1.5 maps @ -222 (4 units)
PROP: Team AURORA to win at least one map? NO @ +168 (1 unit)
Team AURORA and 1907 Fenerbahce actually split their season matches two each but in an eight team league it took a tiebreaker to decide the 6th seed between AURORA and HWA... AURORA actually lost their last 5 matches in a row including a blowout win by Fenerbahce in the season finale. I've been pretty spot on in the TCL this year but mostly playing props on game times. This might seem like a tempting spot to take AUR because of the season split but in both of their wins against FB they got Galio + Jarvan / Camille in a metagame where those were borderline must ban champions. I don't expect that to be the case as FB can identify that was the main reason for their loss and ban that strategy out like they did last week. This SHOULD be a 3-0 with the second most likely being a 3-1 for FB.
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European LCS Playoffs:
Splyce (-169, -1.5 @ +125, M1 -141, M2 -145, M3 -145)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 19.5)
Team Vitality (+132, +1.5 @ -164, M1 +109, M2 +111, M3 +111)
(Picks tomorrow morning, at this moment I'm leaning Splyce 3-2 but I can justify both sides so this might be a light wager, gonna think on it, line slightly moved from -172)
Prop: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
I think this line is an overreaction to Rogue Warriors losing their last three games but this has a couple of layers to it. RW honestly look like they mailed it in the second they clinched their #2 seed because they started losing once they got to 13 wins because it wasn't possible for RNG or Suning to catch them and Invictus had gotten to 15. If you look at their drafts they've been experimenting with carry tops and different mid lane picks like Vladimir, Taliyah, and Viktor for Doinb as well as Kaisa for SmLz.
"But Gelati, that strangely coincides with the introduction of patch 8.5, maybe they just can't play that well in the new meta?"
This is the stronger argument than the "they've lost their last three and are in free fall." Rogue Warriors are a great team, and to me they're the second best team in a very competitive LPL this season. They tried some things and they could likely do that again but the difference is that this time they aren't playing against teams like RNG and Suning who were battling for playoff seeding while trying new things. JD were a promising team early in the season but this is ultimately a mid tier team. I expect Rogue Warriors to get back on track and head into playoffs with the confidence of an absolute stomping against JD who have shown an inability to snowball games often sticking to the "scale and protect the Loken" plan. RW aren't going to let that happen whether they're trying new things or not.
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Handicapped: RNG -1.5 maps @ -185 (3 units)
With a win and a Suning loss RNG have now locked the #3 seed in the East but also cannot catch #2 Rogue Warriors with one game remaining. This would normally be a tough spot for RNG to get up for this game since there's literally no implication for either team but I trust RNG to thoroughly stomp bottom dwellers TopSports and unlike RW, RNG aren't on a losing streak going into playoffs and in need of a "get right" game. RNG had an excellent performance against RW and I trust they'll want to keep momentum rather than resting starters or getting a 1-3 game sample of something more experimental. If I'm RNG I want to keep rolling right into playoffs and not mess with a good thing you've got going but I'm going to limit this wager because it's completely reasonable for them to just punt this to not give any relevant film to playoff opponents. I actually don't dislike fading here and getting +140 on the +1.5 for TopSports if you believe in the "this doesn't matter" or "this is TopSports Super Bowl" factor but I still think even with that factored in that an RNG 2-0 is most likely. #Week9problems
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Handicapped: Invictus Gaming -1.5 maps @ -213 (2 units)
I really should abstain from this bet because I just have a gut feeling that the newly feisty LGD could steal a game here but this Invictus team is like the terminator. In every single "let down" game scenario this season they've just obliterated the opposition and it'd be really strange for them not to do so in the last game before playoffs. If you LOVE really heavy underdogs this is as good a spot as any but I'm going to trust the Invictus Terminators.
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Turkish Champions League Playoffs
1907 Fenerbahce (-588, -1.5 @ -222, M1 -278, M2 -588, M3 -500)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 21.5)
Team AURORA (+328, +1.5 @ +149, M1 +190, M2 +196, M3 +193)
Handicapped: 1907 Fenerbahce -1.5 maps @ -222 (4 units)
PROP: Team AURORA to win at least one map? NO @ +168 (1 unit)
Team AURORA and 1907 Fenerbahce actually split their season matches two each but in an eight team league it took a tiebreaker to decide the 6th seed between AURORA and HWA... AURORA actually lost their last 5 matches in a row including a blowout win by Fenerbahce in the season finale. I've been pretty spot on in the TCL this year but mostly playing props on game times. This might seem like a tempting spot to take AUR because of the season split but in both of their wins against FB they got Galio + Jarvan / Camille in a metagame where those were borderline must ban champions. I don't expect that to be the case as FB can identify that was the main reason for their loss and ban that strategy out like they did last week. This SHOULD be a 3-0 with the second most likely being a 3-1 for FB.
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European LCS Playoffs:
Splyce (-169, -1.5 @ +125, M1 -141, M2 -145, M3 -145)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 19.5)
Team Vitality (+132, +1.5 @ -164, M1 +109, M2 +111, M3 +111)
(Picks tomorrow morning, at this moment I'm leaning Splyce 3-2 but I can justify both sides so this might be a light wager, gonna think on it, line slightly moved from -172)
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North American LCS Playoffs:
Echo Fox (-132, -1.5 @ +216, M1 -123, M2 -122, M3 -122)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 19.5)
Clutch Gaming (+104, +1.5 @ -294, M1 -104, M2 -105, M3 -105)
(Picks tomorrow, leaning Clutch but timid because Huni can take over entire games on his own and while Solo has been excellent he hasn't had to face a threat like Huni because Hauntzer was relatively restricted by TSM compositions while Huni likely won't be... more tomorrow)
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Overrated / Underrated Teams Page Updated Weekly (Updated 3/5)!!
LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
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