BiliBili Gaming (-400, -1.5 @ -119, M1 -278, M2 -294, M3 -222)
@ (Over/Under ???, Total Kills ???)
Vici Gaming (+281, +1.5 @ -109, M1 +203, M2 +216, M3 +168)
Snake eSports (+107, +1.5 @ -286, M1 +100, M2 +101, M3 +100)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 22.5)
Team WE (-137, -1.5 @ +210, M1 -130, M2 -130, M3 -130)
We have an interesting two matches in the final week of the LPL today. BiliBili trails Snake by one game in the standings and with an second game left to play this week, could potentially overtake them for the #2 seed in the West to earn side selection for their first playoff series. Just another game behind them at 9-7 is Team WE who look to hold their playoff spot over a surging FunPlus Phoenix with a win.
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Handicapped: BiliBili Gaming -1.5 maps @ -119 (5 units)
So to me there are a few ways to slice this match and it has a lot to do with how much stock you put into games after a team secures the spot. BiliBili have two games left to get one win to technically lock their playoff spot so you could tell a story about how they get lazy for this game but I'm opting for what I believe is the more likely situation. With two wins to finsh out the season it's totally within reason for BiliBili to take over the second seed from Snake. It's also likely that could go to game tiebreakers so they'll need as many wins and as few losses as possible. Add in the fact that Team WE is breathing down their neck and FunPlus isn't far behind that and this has all the pressure of a big game to determine playoff seeding.
Like I said, with a win they lock their spot but I think BiliBili are going to want to play for the #2 seed and perhaps even more so, play to avoid the #4 seed who would have to face EDG, the clear #1 in the West. They have so many different motivations for this game and Vici, while attempting to turn over a new leaf, are still one of the worst squads in the LPL. I'm honestly shocked this line is as low as it is so I'm attacking in a spot that looks vulnerable.
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Moneyline: Snake eSports +107 (4 units)
Prop: Exact Score Snake 2-1 @ +287 (1 unit)
Prop: Exact Score Snake 2-0 @ +248 (1 unit)
So to me there are a few ways to slice this match and it has a lot to do with how much stock you put into games after a team secures the spot. BiliBili have two games left to get one win to technically lock their playoff spot so you could tell a story about how they get lazy for this game but I'm opting for what I believe is the more likely situation. With two wins to finsh out the season it's totally within reason for BiliBili to take over the second seed from Snake. It's also likely that could go to game tiebreakers so they'll need as many wins and as few losses as possible. Add in the fact that Team WE is breathing down their neck and FunPlus isn't far behind that and this has all the pressure of a big game to determine playoff seeding.
Like I said, with a win they lock their spot but I think BiliBili are going to want to play for the #2 seed and perhaps even more so, play to avoid the #4 seed who would have to face EDG, the clear #1 in the West. They have so many different motivations for this game and Vici, while attempting to turn over a new leaf, are still one of the worst squads in the LPL. I'm honestly shocked this line is as low as it is so I'm attacking in a spot that looks vulnerable.
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Moneyline: Snake eSports +107 (4 units)
Prop: Exact Score Snake 2-1 @ +287 (1 unit)
Prop: Exact Score Snake 2-0 @ +248 (1 unit)
Snake are currently 11-7 in 2nd place with only this game to play to end their season. Meanwhile Team WE are 9-8 with this game, and a second against OMG later this week meaning that if they take this match and beat OMG it's possible for Team WE to move into 2nd place with a BBG loss. Regardless both teams should be up for this game and I don't think Snake will be messing with their roster in this one because they could potentially lose their #2 seed rather easily.
So why, then, am I hammering Snake here despite Team WE perhaps having a more immediately threatening situation? Because I don't think Snake have been taking the past couple games that seriously and they were STILL AHEAD in most situations even with Light playing ADC. They've had some weird, seemingly experimental compositions as well which also lends towards a focus on exploration as opposed to winning. I know Kryst4l had a couple of bad games but I full expect him to be back in and in full form for this one and Snake to be up and ready to show the West why they were on top for so much of this season.
This line is saying that Snake are who they were in their past two games against FunPlus and BiliBili and are perhaps underrating how hungry those teams had to be in those games while jockeying for playoff positioning while Snake took some time to give their sub some experience. I'm not saying Snake is miles ahead of WE or as good as they were in the first half but this line shouldn't have them as underdogs when they could easily lose their #2 seed. This is one of the stronger teams in the LPL who aren't going to give up their playoff spot without a fight. I expect Snake to be up for this game and rather fancy the decisive 2-0 which I may add to later depending on line movement.
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LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
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