Betting: July 24th (LCK)

So I decided to take a few days off not only because I had a busy weekend coming up but because I had really started to just chase bets quite hard instead of having good reasoning for them and needed the mental reset. If you follow me on Twitter (@GelatiLOL) you'd know I did put a few picks in but this is the first blog post back.


LOL Champions Korea 7/24 Schedule:

Griffin (-120, -1.5 @ +187)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 18.5
Kingzone DragonX (-105, +1.5 @ -213)



Gen.G 
@
KT Rolster

Moneyline: Kingzone DragonX +108 (8 units)

So this might seem like I'm continuing to sip the Kingzone Kool Aide but hear me out. Griffin are by no means floundering just because they've now lost two of their last three matches and this bet is in no way signifying that THE END IS NIGH or anything like that however I do think the league has figured out a couple of key weaknesses the squad has and it took a little look in the mirror.

So far Griffin have been exceptional at both absorbing and applying pressure but a lot of things have been given to them. I'm not saying it was handed to them on a silver platter all the time, ultimately the plays needed to be made and all you can ask them to do is make them but there have been numerous times this season where enemy teams would disrespectfully force plays against Griffin who would immediately punish that. That was the case until the first time they faced KT Rolster where a team with a superior early game was able to simply outplay them early on and overwhelm them. So there's one way to defeat this team, a way which only a few teams on Earth have the individual players to do. The other way has been a more recent development first pioneered by Gen.G and that was to draft to outscale and turn the tide on Griffin. Put the ball in their court so to speak and make them create plays or team compositions to defeat you. If Gen.G hadn't punted away a series with some boneheaded decisions we'd be talking about something different here.

The point I'm trying to make is this. Griffin have shown that they're not nearly as strong of a team when you put the intiative in their hands which is pretty damn weird when you consider that they dominated the challenger scene doing the exact thing that's not proving to be their new Achilles' heel. KT Rolster successfully accomplished this in two of the three games, Afreeca did the same, and Gen.G ... well, we know what happened there. Kingzone have been very stubborn about trying to outplay other teams early and have been burned for it a few times but I think the other top teams have given them a good plan of attack for Griffin this time around.

The counterpoint to this argument is that Kingzone "haven't looked great recently" with losses to Jin Air and Gen.G but all but one of those four game losses can be attributed to a downright terrible draft that, in my opinion, is easily remedied by the coaching staff. I'm aware that drafting is part of the puzzle but it's also the easiest thing to adjust. Before the season started I had Kingzone finishing as the best team in the LCK and The World and while my expectations aren't quite as sky high as they were I still expect this team to contend for that position. Griffin I had finishing a respectable 5th and while they may seem far ahead of the standings because of their hot start, they're only half a match up on Gen.G and only two matches up on 5th place Afreeca so anything could happen. I predict Griffin will not finish first or even second and there's your #HotTake of the week I suppose.

Anyway with all of that as context I love Kingzone here. This line has since moved to -105 and I'm glad I got in at the 108 on Sunday afternoon when it was briefly posted. You don't have to trust me to the tune of 8 units but I feel extremely confident Kingzone will win this series. All of their losses have been to downright awful drafting and I can't possibly think they won't be prepared for Griffin while I could actually see them not caring enough to overprepare for Jin Air. I'm also putting a lot of faith in this veteran lineup to start tuning up in preparation for playoffs and worlds and that starts with taking down the LCK.


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Moneyline: KT Rolster -143  (4 units)

Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +196 (0.5 unit)


Gen.G are currently half a game from first place and that's even with some really awful games scattered throughout the season. KT have also been shaping up of late. Both of these teams have had wins over other elite teams but to me KT have made a lot fewer errors and have been competitive in every game without any real "shot themselves in the foot" moments, they've simply been outplayed. I find it a bit odd that KT is the favorite by this much here and line value should dictate that if I feel this is close to 50/50 we put some skin on Gen.G but I'm going with KT regardless here. KT Rolster utterly smashed Gen.G in under 61 minutes total time last match and considering the direction of both the metagame and these two teams I'd expect either a slower scaling game that KT can take over with superior carry players  or a blazing fast blowout that KT has even taken a great defensive team in Griffin out with this season. To me there are just more ways this shakes out for KT Rolster and for as good as Gen.G have been, they haven't been the cleanest and have shown a lot of mental lapses.

Betting: July 18th (LCK, LPL)

LOL Champions Korea 7/18 Schedule:

Kingzone DragonX (-164, -1.5 @ +179)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 18.5
Gen.G eSports (+127, +1.5 @ -244)


Jin Air GW (-270, -1.5 @ +121)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 20.5
BBQ Olivers (+205, +1.5 @ -161)

.

Moneyline: Kingzone DragonX -164 (6 units)

Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ +179 (1 unit)

PROP: Map 1 UNDER 18.5 total kills @ -114 (1 unit)

PROP: Map 2 UNDER 18.5 total kills @ -114 (1 unit)

Lets take a look at Kingzone's two matches since returning from Rift Rivals because it's going to tell us about Jin Air as well which is relevant since they also play tomorrow morning.

• vs Jin Air (July 14th): Game one was a total clown fiesta initiated mostly by Peanut aggressively diving all the way toward Jin Air's base to chase A KINDRED. In the next few fights he accomplished next to nothing Sejuani ulting one target and not frontlining for his team. To me this game looked like Kingzone completely messing around. There was no communication, no plan, they were just playing League of Legends and unlike in some other regions you can't do that in Korea or you get punished. Game two was similarly sloppy but at least it wasn't downright stupid like a lot of the decisions in game one. This game boiled down to Pray eventually being too strong on Ezreal but this game could have been thrown if Jin Air were a better team and able to punish some poor teamfight positioning. Game three Kingzone selected Zilean Sejuani botlane against Ezreal Morgana... I mean look I'm all for trying some different stuff and I understand the idea of using the Sej ult + Galio ult + Zilean double bomb to counteract the Kindred damage but I think it's too cute. It's the kind of thing that I wouldn't even call genius if it had worked and that's coming from somebody that has played Zilean as a Kindred soft counter in competitive leagues before. Jin Air also showed the Anivia counterpick to Galio putting BDD in a really rough position throughout this game. I think the draft was too cute and Kingzone didn't really have a window to win this game by being behind as much as they were and being outscaled lategame by Ezreal ADC from Teddy. This was a poor draft. So this series was one game of trolling and clowning around, one horribly sloppy but clear win condition type game, and a lost draft. I can't help but think Kingzone would have won this series if they weren't screwing around in game one but lets look at the next series.
• vs MVP (July 12th): Game one Kingzone had two kills onto Khan very early in the game, proceeded to show up late to a top lane dive, fail to protect and then feed another kill to give MVP at least a fighting chance in the game. Eventually Kingzone were able to close off the back of a triple Infernal. Game two was slower but Kingzone were intelligent about playing to their Zoe + Varus late game setup. It took almost 39 minutes but this game was not remotely close. 

So four incredibly sloppy games in their last five. Perhaps this was disrespecting two of the bottom three teams in the league and essentially "taking the week off" due to the easy schedule and already having a 6-2 record going into them or perhaps there are some serious problems with this Kingzone team. As many of you know I've trumpeted that Kingzone are the best team in the world since before the season started but they certainly haven't been playing like it these past two matches. I'm actually going to attribute some of the sloppiness to just lack of preparation and general cockiness because they weren't exactly hungry to prepare and smash these bottom tier teams while they sit close to the top of the standings at 6-2. However that's not all of it where exactly does this team end up? I still think this is an elite team that was just in a weird spot. You see this happen with a lot of great teams at different points in the season. Usually it's the beginning of Spring split but it's not unheard of for it to happen in Summer. Samsung did it the year they won worlds, SK Telecom did it during one of their worlds runs. It's not unprecidented for top teams to have these lulls. I think Kingzone are still one of the best teams in the world and are worthy of consideration to win the world title still.

I know this is getting long but let's talk about Gen.G too because they're an interesting case which makes this a fascinating matchup. Gen.G were a few boneheaded plays away from 2-0'ing Griffin but made some horrible draft and gameplay decisions in game three to make them truly deserve the loss. They won an absolute slugfest of a series against Hanwha showing excellent control and a clear team identity. Speaking of identity, that's really what Gen.G has going for them. They know who they are and they aren't trying to pretend to be something else like KT, Kingzone, SKT, and a lot of other teams domestically and worldwide. Season 8 has been the season of finding yourself as a team and while the teams that are settled in may not all be doing outstanding they're at least very steady. Gen.G are getting better. I think the Rift Rivals break and the horrible beating Afreeca gave them before it left a sour taste and a lot of motivation to improve. We've seen the pseudo return of Crown and once again, this team isn't pretending to be something they aren't. 

I'm going to go with Kingzone which seems counterintuitive here but hear me out. Kingzone have had some wins with non-ADC compositions but they've been far more inconsistent with them than they have playing with and ADC. Kingzone also play-up to the competition much like KT does. They show up against the big dogs. I think when push comes to shove Kingzone will start leaning on ADC's more whether that's Kindred in the jungle or in the traditional marksman role. It's what they're good at. It's also what Gen.G is good at but Kingzone tend to run over teams with slower early games. Gen.G started the season fast but, like much of the LCK and LPL, have slowed down quite a bit. To me this is where Kingzone plant their flag on who they are and "snap back to reality." There is a lot of bad blood between these teams. Kingzone (then Longzhu) were completely embarassed 3-0 by Gen.G (then Samsung) in quarterfinals. They were then swiftly smashed in the first game of LCK Spring as well. Kingzone returned the favor with a 2-1 win in week 9 of the Spring Split and proceeded to go on to win the LCK Spring Finals 3-1 over Afreeca. Fast forward to week one this season where Gen.G won 2-1 including an obscene 21-2 in 23 minutes game three. Kingzone hate this team. They've gotten the better of them in three of their last four meetings despite Kingzone being the better team each time (I'd include worlds in that argument, it was a complete stunner to see Longzhu go out that early and Samsung didn't even look that great in groups before completely reinventing themselves for the bracket stage and going on to win). This feels like the perfect setup for Kingzone to return the favor and smash and improving, but very linear Gen.G team and reassure everyone, myself included, that they belong at the top of LCK. I also think this will be two very controlled games. These two teams tend to play lower kill games and I think with teams slowly accepting that you CAN slow things down and play ADCs again which I think Kingzone might do, combined with the fact that Gen.G plays that way anyway makes me think these will be low kill games. Of course that could backfire and this could end up being a bloodbath because of the rivalry but I'll take my chances.

Side Note: I actually think Kingzaone will end up in first place by season end and that's a bit of a hot take but I'll likely do a writeup on mid seaon rankings next week.

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Handicapped: Jin Air -1.5 maps @ +121 (2 units)

Jin Air 2-0'd BBQ by playing a composition in game two that I thought could not possibly do enough damage to get through their thick (thicc??) beefy lineup. They still won that game. They also smashed BBQ in game one and have definitely looked better. I won't give them too much credit for the Kingzone win because Kingzone more or less spoon fed it to them but they at least were able to punish obvious mistakes and BBQ will most certainly make a lot of them. The counterargument here is that this is "BBQ's Super Bowl" but truthfully I'd wager A LOT more on this game if it weren't two of the bottom three teams in the LCK duking it out. If I had more faith in Jin Air this would likely be a 5-6 unit wager but we're going to keep it to two. I'm tempted to take the OVER on total kills as these tend to be sloppy games but this BBQ team often looks miserable and like they don't even want to be there so it wouldn't surprise me to see a lethargic showing even in their "Super Bowl."

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LOL Pro League (China) 7/18 Schedule:

Suning Gaming (-278, -1.5 @ +119)
@ Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 23.5
OMG (+210, +1.5 @ -156)


Invictus Gaming (-625, -1.5 @ -204)
@ Over/Under ??, Total Kills ??

Team WE (+405, +1.5 @ +136)

Handicapped: Suning -1.5 maps @ +119  (2 units)

Suning have lost four series in a row but they've played against Rogue Warriors, Invictus, JD, and RNG. They've taken a game in three of those series, (vs RW, IG, and JD). Before that they destroyed the struggling BiliBili and LGD but did drop a game in week one to Vici which I'm going to the bizarre introductory metagame this season (for the record they had a commanding lead and just sloppily threw it away). Suning are in that Tier 2 of LPL teams. They're very clearly stronger than the bottom dwelling teams and often smash them but they're not quite good enough to take down the elite 4 or 5 teams in the league like RNG, EDG, IG, and RW.   OMG appear to be the King of the Losers in the LPL showing some improvement from last season. They were able to bring a home victory for the first time this season in a back and forth matchup against Vici... wait a minute read that again. "a back and forth matchup against Vici." Yea that says about all I need to say. OMG's only victories have been against fellow bottomw dwellers TopSports, Vici, and a really weird, flukey win in a bizarre week one against Snake, who look a lot worse this season really up until this past week. OMG are not good and their strong players are at the positions of as well as are outclassed by Suning's best players. 

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Handicapped: Invictus -1.5 maps @ -200 (8 units)

Team WE appear to be the worst or second worst team, as if that matters, in the entire LPL. Even with a 50% first blood rate and a 61% first tower rate they have a 1622 gold per minute and simply cannot do anything with leads. It's actually pretty sad. This is a lineup of former world championship contenders and it should be significantly better but it just isn't. You could make the argument that after a game win against a competitive JD team that Team WE could be due for an uptick or that "this team can't possibly be this bad" as I've said about a lot of teams in the past but I'm not going to rely on that and I'm certainly not going to rely on it against the team that, in my opinion, is now going to be the best in the LPL in Invictus. It's actually surprising this isn't another -1250 or more moneyline for Invictus.

Betting: July 17th (LCK, LPL)

LOL Champions Korea 7/17 Schedule:

Griffin (-175, -1.5 @ +174)
@ Over/Under ??, Total Kills ??
Afreeca Freecs (+135, +1.5 @ -233)


SK Telecom (-238, -1.5 @ +121)
@ Over/Under ??, Total Kills ??
MVP (+182, +1.5 @ -154)

.

Moneyline: Afreeca Freecs +135 (2 units)

The last time these two teams met Griffin ran over Afreeca in game one before a back and forth slugfest hapened in game two. Gold was even over the first 33 minutes before an Afreeca pick turned into a baron, dragon, and a push onto the bot base tower. Then Griffin did their thing, pulling a teamfight win even after Sword's flank got blocked by a Trundle pillar. 

Basically what this boils down to for me is that Afreeca can hang with this team and to me can't be much less than very slightly worse. Other teams have laid a good blueprint for how you can beat Griffin and I think Afreeca will chop them down a notch this time around. Keeping this light though because this could just be Afreeca coming back down to earth.

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Handicapped: SK Telecom -1.5 maps @ +130 (4.5 units, MAX)


Both of these teams are in MUST WIN territory if they even want a remote chance at playoffs I'm simply betting that SKT are a much better team here. Their metrics are very similar with one notable difference being that SKT get first blood more (62% vs 45%). The first meeting between these teams DID NOT INCLUDE FAKER OR BANG. Read that sentence again. SK Telecom lost 1-2 without their two best players. The first meeting ALSO DID NOT INCLUDE BLANK who has finally righted the ship and has been performing well. I like this MVP team, they're spunky and they've got heart but to me SK Telecom are much closer to the Gen.G/Afreeca than they are to MVP especially as the season has progressed and they have improved. In Korea there is a huge gap between 6th and 7th but just based on film I think SK Telecom are closer to the 14 win teams than the 8 win teams which is their current win total. Is this a great team? No not by any means but I do think they're enough better than MVP for me to like the handicap here. 

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LOL Pro League (China) 7/17 Schedule:

EDward Gaming (-1250, -1.5 @ -244)
@ Over/Under ??, Total Kills ??
Vici Gaming (+625, +1.5 @ +179)


JD Gaming (-270, -1.5 @ +123)
@ Over/Under ??, Total Kills ??

FunPlus Phoenix (+205, +1.5 @ -161)

Handicapped: EDward -1.5 maps @ -208 (10 units)

This is a fairly excessive amount of money with a lot of juice but hear me out. I'm not going to call this my pick of the week but it's likely to be my largest wager for the week unless something changes my mind. Let's break this down:

• EDG have only three game losses. Two to Snake in a bizarre series with a few exceptionally snowbally early games, one of which was extremely flukey, and one to FunPlus Phoenix in week one where a boatload of upsets happened because of the wild and whacky new metagame.
• EDG have swept every other series including some against similarly poor teamst to Vici like TopSports, Team WE, and OMG. They also swept the Top 4 Rogue Warriors in convincing fashionin under 66 minutes total time.
• Vici have just a single match win against the horrid LGD and their only game wins occured last match against the equally bad OMG and in week one with single wins against Suning and Bilibili (who are currently 4-11 by the way), two teams who are terribly equipped to handle the meta at the time. 
• Vici looked like they were going to compete with OMG in their last match before being utterly destroyed in game three in under 25 minutes. OMG is NOT A GOOD TEAM AND THEY SMASHED VICI
• There's a reasonable case for Vici to be labeled the worst team in the LPL. Their only wins are against fellow bad teams and unlike those other bad teams like LGD, OMG, Team WE, and BiliBili. EDG are considered by many to be Top 4 at the minimum, more likely Top 3, and in my opinion 2nd only to Invictus currently (considering RNG will be without Uzi). 
• EDG Stats: 1864 gold per minute, 1715 damage per minute, First Blood 63% of games, First Tower 63% of games.
• Vici Stats: 1710 gold per minute, 1639 damage per minute, First Blood 33% of games, First Tower 17% of games.

Putting all that together. Vici struggled and only managed game wins against a 5-9 OMG, a 4-11 BiliBili, and a 8-7 Suning Gaming which was in week one so we'll give Suning a pass. Their only match win was a 2-1 victory over yet another 4-11 team. You know what EDG does to 4-11 teams? 2-0 in under 71 total minutes against Team WE, 2-0 in 55 minutes against OMG, and against the 6-7 TopSports they 2-0'd in just over 70 minutes. EDG are capable of playing controlled or fast and loose so they're well equipped to deal with anything these bottom dwellers throw at them. This is a borderline lock to me. The good Chinese rarely mess around or play with their food they just obliterate them. EDG could also move to within half a game of Rogue Warriors for first place in the West and considering they completely destroyed them before Rift Rivals you can expect they're hungry to claim their rightful #1 spot.

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Handicapped: JD Gaming -1.5 maps @ -105 (5 units) 

Before we talk about JD let's discuss their opponents FunPlus. This is a team that looks better on paper than they've actually been and let me explain why. Their gold per minute of 1736 is approaching Vici levels and their damage per minute is actually lower at 1604 (granted they play a lot of split pushing but still). They have two match wins: a 2-0 against OMG, and a 2-1 against Team WE, a 5-9 and 4-11 team respectively. Now FunPlus did take a game off EDG which is respectable but it happened in the first few days of the season and again, that weird metagame gave a lot of poor teams in every region some stolen victories. 

JD have frustratingly thrown a bunch of winnable games to bad teams this season but have looked dominant and in control of every series. Currently they've won their last SIX series, five of which were 2-1 victories including an absolute stunner against RNG in week two. They also have taken games over Invictus (albeit in week one), and have 2-0'd Vici. 

This line is saying that JD will once again 2-1. They're fairly heavily favored to win but the handicapped only being at -105 (+123 when you read this, it was -105 when I placed bet) showed that people and the book think this will be a 2-1 JD victory. I think JD can close this one out. FunPlus are about as good, if not a little worse than their 6-11 record suggests. This is a team that's only barely better than the bottom dwellers. While the moneyline is a tad too rich for me in this case I do like the handicap especially if you get a better number than I did.

Betting: July 16th (LPL)

**Snake eSports** @ BiliBili Gaming  -  4 units  -  **Handicapped: Snake -1.5 maps @ +130**

Snake finally looked like themselves last match and while that style may not give them a huge edge against BBG since it lines up well for BBG, I think Snake have always been stronger at that heavy team fight (with a Flandre split option) focused style. So even if BBG settle in and figure themselves out in a similar fashion I think Snake are simply better at what BBG are good at. If BBG don't go back to their roots and keep looking lost like they have been then this should be a smashing for Snake. I like the handicap quite a bit here.

Betting: July 14th (LCK, LPL, LMS, EU LCS, NA LCS)

LOL Champions Korea 7/14 Schedule:

Kingzone DragonX (-1667, -1.5 @ -278)
@ (O/U: 32:00 minutes, 18.5 total kills)
Jin Air GW (+759, +1.5 @ +194)


MVP (-217, -1.5 @ +138)
@ (O/U: 34:00 minutes, 19.5 total kills)
BBQ Olivers (+165, +1.5 @ -182)



Handicapped: MVP -1.5 maps @ +145 (1 unit)

Handicapped: MVP -1.5 maps @  +138 (3 units) (ADD ON)

I feel really sketchy putting 4 units on MVP but after watching BBQ get obliterated by Jin Air, the likely 9th place team in LCK who are in a meta that's bad for them, this team looked defeated. This BBQ team used to have spunk. They'd fight and make aggressive plays and if they lost then they lost but they always fought. MVP are potentially still in playoff contention although I wouldn't call it likely so they need to have these "free" wins when they come up if they want to have a chance to be competing. MVP have looked really good relative to them. Much better than they did last split. Their only "bad" losses have come to the elite teams. This feels weird but I think MVP can take care of business here. BBQ just look awful. They don't know what roster works, they looked defeated, and I'd say MVP are better than Jin Air in this current metagame and Jin Air smashed BBQ.

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LOL Pro League (China) 7/14 Schedule:


Snake eSports (-227, -1.5 @ +129)

@ (O/U: ?? minutes, ??? total kills)
LGD Gaming (+175, +1.5 @ -169)


Invictus Gaming (-909, -1.5 @ -192)
@ (O/U: ?? minutes, ?? total kills)
FunPlus Phoenix (+538, +1.5 @ +139)


Rogue Warriors (-227, -1.5 @ +138)
@ (O/U: ?? minutes, ?? total kills)

Suning Gaming (+172, +1.5 @ -182)

Handicapped: Snake eSports -1.5 maps @ +145 (3 units)

My unit wagers show that I'm a little less confident in this wager than I would have been last split but I think the week off could do wonders for Snake who really looked lost before the break after getting destroyed by TopSports in under 50 minutes total. That being said I think they're a good team with great players and LGD are just a complete mess. This feels like a "get right" situation for Snake to get back in contention with the big teams. I don't think they're on that level anymore but they should be able to put a horrible LGD team down.

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Handicapped: Invictus Gaming -1.5 maps @ -175 (10 units) (PICK OF THE WEEK)

FunPlus were one of the worst teams in the league last split and started off "hot" relative to last season with wins over WE and a game win against EDG. This team got destroyed by Snake and Rogue Warriors in quick 2-0 losses and I expect Invictus, who were undefeated prior to a loss to RNG before Rift Rivals. to utterly smash them here. I love the under bets in these games too if they're anything 31:00 or more and might even go as low as 29:00 when they're posted. Invictus are one of the best teams on the planet and FunPlus are overrated even for a bad team. This should be a sub 60 minute total victory easy. The only reason this line isn't -1.5 @ -250 or greater is because FunPlus have a couple flukey wins this season. Take the line value when you see it because you're not going to see a line this low again for Invictus against a bad team.

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Handicapped: Rogue Warriors -1.5 maps @ +145 (4 units)

Suning started off the season 3-0 with wins over three of the worst four teams in the current metagame in Vici, LGD, and BBG. They were then smashed by RNG and played a slugfest of a match against fellow mid tier team JD. They even took a game off Invictus after being gifted a draft with a perfect Kaisa funnel composition. I don't think they're going to get any more freebies against good teams. Suning are good but not great. Rogue Warriors, I'd argue with Uzi now sitting the rest of the season, are the second best team in China behind Invictus and you could make an argument for them being the best. This is a team that smashes opposing squads that aren't other elite teams. They rarely drop games to mid tier or lower teams. As good as Suning have been I think they're extremely one dimensional and reliant upon two strategies that are very predictable. Firstly Fenfen has only really had success with Darius counterpicks and has otherwise selected Irelia 7 times and she's been nerfed. Teams are also way smarter to not give up funnel compositions anymore which is how Suning stole a game from Invictus. With those two strategies out the window I don't see a way Suning stand toe to toe with RW. DoinB should run train on Fenfen here but RW outclass Suning in every other position as well so I'm not sure it will matter.

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League Masters Series (Taiwan) 7/14 Schedule:


MAD Team (-313, -1.5 @ +111)

@ (O/U: ?? minutes, ??? total kills)
AHQ eSports (+209, +1.5 @ -161)


Machi eSports (+272, +1.5 @ -125)
@ (O/U: ?? minutes, ??? total kills)
Hong Kong Attitude (-435, -1.5 @ -115)

Moneyline: AHQ eSports +209 (1 unit)

At first glance MAD look to be in a good spot with wins against J Team and G-Rex who were 2nd and 3rd place last split as well as a convincing win against last place Machi but upon further investigation you'd find that those squads are not the same teams and aren't performing as well as they did last split. In other words they're completely different so this number just looks impressive. MAD haven't had to face a good team yet. Is AHQ good? Absolutely not but I don't think MAD is -313 better than ANYONE besides maybe Machi and maybe Afro. AHQ have good enough players to outplay and steal some games here.


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Handicapped: Hong Kong Attitude -1.5 maps @ -115 (2 units) 


The new look Hong Kong Attitude have looked really solid and Machi are one of the two worst teams in the league. Sketchy putting the handicap here but I think the value is good enough to go 2 units on the sweep.

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EU LCS (Europe) 7/14 Schedule:


Unicorns of Love -139 @ H2K +110
Splyce -175 @ FC Schalke 04 +137
G2 eSports -500 @ Giants +344
Fnatic -286 @ ROCCAT +214
Misfits -222 @ Team Vitality +171

Moneyline: ROCCAT +214 (1 unit)


Fnatic are going to continue not playing Rekkles and they'll continue to punt random games to mid table teams like Splyce and, you guessed it, ROCCAT. By the way, this ROCCAT squad has been super fun to watch and Memento has been an absolute all star pleading his case for MVP. He's hard carrying this team and he could create enough chaos and pressure the right spots enough to cause problems for a Fnatic team that, while not lost, isn't looking like themselves.

Moneyline: Schalke 04 +147 (1 unit)

I know people are high on Splyce but I think Schalke and Splyce are kind of in the same tier right now where we know they're good but they're not really as good as the top teams. Either way I think this line should be a little closer so I'm willing to take a flyer on the underdogs here. 


Moneyline: H2K +110 (1 unit)

Similar to the above pick, when you have two relatively even teams in a best of one format I'm willing to take a flyer on the underdog for cheap. I know people say H2K are the worst team in the EU LCS but I think UOL are just as bad so to me this is a push and I'll try the +110 especially with side selection.

I must have entered these and didn't submit them like an idiot so these are void for numbers reasons.

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NA LCS (North America) 7/14 Schedule:

Echo Fox -154 @ Counter Logic Gaming +121
Team Solo Mid -159 @ 100 Thieves +125
Clutch Gaming -238 @ Golden Guardians +180
Team Liquid -357 @ OpTic Gaming +259
Cloud 9 ?? @ FlyQuest ??

Moneyline: Echo Fox -154 (3 units)

I'm willing to eat my hat on this one. Echo Fox coach Inero has stepped down and I think people are going to overreact to this. Echo Fox are significantly better than CLG even when CLG is playing "well." Especially after a rough Rift Rivals I think Echo Fox will be glad to be back home and I expect them to get right by smashing CLG. The tale of the tape here shows about as much as six games can show but it's something. Both teams have similar gold differential numbers but that's only over a six game sample size and only one win separates these two. The biggest difference to me is that Echo Fox are dealing an obscene 2171 damage per minute as a team this season which is one of the highest numbers in ANY LEAGUE. CLG for comparison are doing 1704. If you want to break this down by damage per gold Echo Fox only earn slightly more gold at 1828 vs CLG's 1775. What does this mean? Echo Fox are doing A LOT MORE WITH LESS. CLG's victories have come from early snowballs with Olaf into an Olaf+Ornn bulldozer or from a weird 40+ minute slugfest against the slow playing Clutch. They aren't going to be able get that kind of snowball against the dominant individual players and strong early jungle presence on Echo Fox. I think this is a pretty severe mismatch and is earning my strongest non-special wager for best of one, regular season plays, of three.


Moneyline: Team Solo Mid -159  (3 units)

TSM still don't quite look like themselves but they've also had the week to prepare for their second half run. 100 Thieves looked unexciting at Rift Rivals but they've been back for a week and I'm not expecting any sort of hangover effect here. I think TSM are just the better team here. The stats will tell you these two teams are even as both their gold and damage numbers are very similar but considering Grig can only get better and TSM had a full two weeks to prep for this specific weekend I fully expect them to have the advantage here. This is pretty heavily a hunch/gut call so tail at your own risk.

Betting: July 13th (LCK, LPL, EU LCS)

LOL Champions Korea 7/13 Schedule:

Griffin (-172, -1.5 @ +149)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 19.5
Gen.G eSports (+135, +1.5 @ -196)


SK Telecom (-103, +1.5 @ -333)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 19.5
Hanwha Life eSports (-123, -1.5 @ +235)

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Moneyline: Gen.G eSports +135 (6 units) 

PROP: Exact Gen.G 2-0 @ +384 (1 unit)

PROP: Exact Gen.G 2-1 @ +359 (1.5 units)

(Update: This line is now -217 and +167 making me regret my earlier wager but I'd roflstomp this line if I saw it)

Suspiciously my book has capped this game here or I'd make this my pick of the week.

I need to take a moment to discuss a couple of things regarding both of these teams. Firstly, regarding Griffin, I still think this team is due for some regression. They've looked really good and they've had carry performances from multiple players but I also think, just like with all good, new teams, they eventually get figured out to some degree. I don't think they're very one dimensional or anything like that but I do think they have tendencies and teams are starting to expose Lehends' pool and not play as blindly aggressive into the intelligent young squad. Secondly, Gen.G murdered me last season with their seemingly carefree approach to certain matchups but they've won all but two series this season, an 0-2 loss to KT Rolster and an 0-2 loss to Afreeca. Besides that they've dropped three games, one to Hanwha, one to Kingzone, and one, sadly, to the BBQ Olivers off of a really unlucky outplay on an early skirmish. In other words this team is taking things seriously and they aren't taking games off.

I absolutely love Gen.G here and that's a sentence I never thought I'd say after last split but they're a good team. Griffin are flying high right now and this feels to me like another one of those scenarios where the veterans say "welcome to the big leagues." I've been wrong on two of those calls already this season but I think the combination of Gen.G's quietly excellent performance this season and Griffin's long due regression to the mean (a little) making me love this spot for Gen.G. The line is going to keep going up and up for Griffin as people are slamming them overconfidently after a poor draft by KT lost them that series on Tuesday. Get it while you can!

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Moneyline: SK Telecom -103 (4 units)

(Update: Line is now SKT -110 / HLE -115)

Hanwha Life eSports continue to impress. They're disciplined, well coached, and are always well prepared for their games. I think if you asked me about this matchup before Rift Rivals I would have told you that it's about even. After Rift Rivals, the books think it is even but I think SK Telecom looked excellent at Rift Rivals. This roster finally seems to be coming together and Blank has actually strung together a dozen or so strong performances now so maybe he's shaken the monkey off his back so to speak. This isn't disrespecting HLE but I think SK Telecom are due for a run here. They need to start piling up victories if they want to stay competitive in the playoff hunt, coincidentally with HLE. This is a HUGE series for SK Telecom. They absolutely need this and with only one match this week it will have the entirety of their focus while HLE had to play KT Rolster on Tuesday and Gen.G on Sunday. This is a great spot for SK Telecom.


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LOL Pro League (China) 7/13 Schedule:

TopSports Gaming (-103, +1.5 @ -333)
@ Over/Under 32:00, Total Kills 23.5
BiliBili Gaming (-123, -1.5 @ +235)


Royal Never Give Up (-909, -1.5 @ -233)
@ Over/Under 31:00, Total Kills 22.5

OMG (+526, +1.5 @ +175)

Moneyline: OMG +526 (0.5 unit)

Handicapped: OMG +1.5 maps @ + 175 (1 unit)

This is a bit of a lottery ticket, hunch wager. Uzi will be taking extended time off of the game due to injuries (presumably to his wrist or back). Even without him RNG should stomp OMG but OMG have looked a little better this season and the Rift Rivals hangover COMBINED with Uzi being out could make for a situation where OMG steal a game or two here just from sloppy play. Not likely but as I said this is just a hunch.

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Moneyline: BiliBili Gaming -127 (4 units)

Handicapped: BiliBili Gaming -1.5 @ +229 (1 unit)

BiliBili have really been struggling with this metagame. They're simply not built to play the game this way but I think with time and an additional off week they could perhaps have things figured out. I'm betting that they do. I'm also betting that TopSports have overachieved just a little bit. Apart from the 2-0 they handed to Snake before the break, they haven't really beaten anybody good. As a matter of fact they didn't even sweep FunPlus. BBG being favorites is exactly how I feel here even considering the metagame being out of their favor. I think they have stronger players, especially without Marin playing for TSG. I also think they'll make at least some progress in figuring out their way to play this metagame with the time off and overall accumulated time in this meta over the season. This line would've been -250 or more last season with similar players and I think BBG can only go up from their current rock bottom.

TL:DR - BBG due to improve and underrated, TSG due for regression and slightly overrated (based on records).

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EU LCS (Europe) 7/13 Schedule:

Team Vitality -294 @ H2K +218

FC Schalke 04 -189 @ Giants +145

ROCCAT -132 @ UOL +104

Fnatic -244 @ Splyce +184

G2 eSports -147 @ Misfits +115

Moneyline: ROCCAT -132 (3 units)

Moneyline: ROCCAT -139 (2 units) (ADDED AFTER NEWS UPDATE)

With the announcement that Neon will be starting over an ill Samux I bumped this a few units for ROCCAT. I don't normally like going this heavy on best of ones unless I'm feeling arrogant but this one actually fits. ROCCAT have looked pretty solid and UoL are not only the worst team in the league but are also down arguably their second best player. I'll take my chances in this spot.

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Moneyline: H2K +218 (1 unit)

I am a relentless Team Vitality hater but H2K have not looked as bad in their losses as you'd think looking at their 0-6 record. Vitality have done nothing but smash bad teams and mediocre teams so why am I going with this? To be honest this is strictly a hunch. With a week off and time to prepare I think that favors heavy underdogs like this especially because they absolutely NEED this victory if they want to salvage any chance of a miracle playoff run. I could see Vitality punting this one on a botched overaggressive early game play. I don't think H2K are 0-6 bad even if I don't think they're good and this feels like a good spot for them to get a win.

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Moneyline: Schalke 04 -189 (3 units)

Giants kinda don't look like themselves right now and I think Schalke might be better than their record shows. They've had a relatively tough schedule facing all of the top 4 teams already (with losses each time) but they've taken care of business against weaker squads and I think Giants fall more into that category.

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Moneyline: G2 eSports -147 (1 unit)

Admittedly this is mostly just for fun, to have a stake in this game and something to cheer for. I think G2 will be feeling good coming off of an excellent performance at Rift Rivals and Misfits are due for a loss. Mostly just think G2 is a better team, arguably the best in Europe right now.