Betting: August 9th (LCK, LPL)

LOL Champions Korea 8/9 Schedule:

Kingzone DragonX (-256, -1.5 @ +116)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 17.5
SK Telecom (+194, +1.5 @ -152)


KT Rolster (-909, -1.5 @ -286)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 17.5
MVP (+538, +1.5 @ +192)

(image from lol.gamepedia.com)

So with Hanwha losing yesterday they knocked themselves out of the "money" of Championship Points and since they received none last season they are actually completely done for the season. It's kinda sad  because they were a competitive team this season and tried hard every single week, besides those few weird ones in the middle of this season. They have some solid foundations and great coaching and I think if they can put some players around Lava this could be a real threat moving forward as some of these other players age. What HLE being eliminated does is open the door for SK Telecom to play in the Worlds Gauntlet when that rolls around since they had 30 Championship Points from finishing 4th last split. 

Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ +116 (8 units) (PICK OF THE WEEK!)


Does this mean SKT will suddenly be trying hard for this last match? Not necessarily. Just more likely. They still have nothing to play for in this match and I think would more likely not show anything/opt to rest starters in preparation for a difficult push through a highly competitive gauntlet. Kingzone on the other hand could take over the #2 seed with SPECIFICALLY a 2-0 victory. Why a 2-0 specifically? Because that would put them to 13-5 match record, and +13 games. They NEED to 2-0 this series because Gen.G holds the head-to-head tiebreaker against them so a 2-1 would put them at +12 which is the same as Gen.G and the next tiebreaker is H2H. If it wasn't for these specific circumstances and the playoff seeding being so crucial in such a competitive region AND the playoff format itself I wouldn't like this pick but because it is I'm absolutely in love with Kingzone to 2-0 this. Combine that with the fact that Kingzone have displayed the trajectory that so many great teams in every league have showed us. A slow, dull start to the Summer, likely from resting players or from players just avoiding burnout by practicing less, a ramp up after a few wake up call losses, and back into form just in time for the end of season and playoffs. It's a script as old as professional League of Legends itself and you see it in traditional sports as well (think the Pittsburgh Penguins every year).

Going into this season back in January I pinned Kingzone as the best team in the World and for awhile they looked like it but they started showing vulnerabilities. Do I still think they're the best team in the world? I'm not as confident as I was but I do think they're in the top two or three names. This is a monster of a team with their eyes set on the #2 seed. SK Telecom have nothing to really play for except for repetitions and I feel this will be a situation where the subs potentially start to get them some more stage experience for the last time this year. I sitll think we'll see Pirean and Effort and potentially Blossom and Leo as well.

Do the math. Subs playing for stage time vs one of the strongest teams on the planet over the past few years that's hungry for a #2 seed and NEEDS to specifically 2-0 to get that. This is a slam dunk and my Pick of the Week.

 
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PROP: Decided map played? NO @ -233 (5 units) 

PROP: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -114  (1 unit)

PROP: Map 2 UNDER 34:00 @ -114 (1 unit)


For some reason this had stronger odds for us than the -1.5 @ -286 so we'll take it. I fully expect a KT 2-0 for similar reasons to a Kingzone 2-0. The situation for KT Rolster is that they're trying to reach Griffin who are 13-5 match score with a +15 game differential. KT Rolster is 12-5 with a +13 game differential so with a 2-0 win they would advance to tie Griffin at 13-5 match, +15 game. The catch is that KT Rolster hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. However MVP are not without something to play for. Unlike SK Telecom in the previous series MVP will be putting their best effort out to avoid the relegation tournament. The problem is that in order to avoid relegations they'd need to specifically 2-0 KT Rolster. A 2-1 wouldn't be good enough because their game differential would fall below Jin Air's -17.

So now that we know the stakes why am I going with KT? "But Gelati, the KT Rollercoaster!?!?! They always lose in spots like this!" They always lose in spots like earlier this week too. KT Rolster has a history of choking but I'm one to believe that can change. This team is playing at an absolutely ridiculous level right now. They utterly smashed Hanwha Life earlier this week. Like a full on embarassment. It looked like a mismatched solo queue game. Even if KT went out and parties their asses off I think they could beat MVP hungover. I also think this is stylistically and strategically a terrible matchup. MVP's best player is ADD in the top lane and Smeb could wipe the floor with him with the way he's been playing the past few weeks. MVP's worst player, to me at least, is Ian and UCal is going to have his way with him. UCal destroyed Lava, a budding star, in a matchup where he was counterpicked, had no jungle help, and was FORCING FIGHTS not playing defensively. KT's confidence is at a ridiculous level right now and I'm expecting these to be definitive stomps "KT Rollercoaster" or not. The only reasons this isn't a heavier play is because MVP actually have something to play for and the juice is really high.

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PARLAYS:

NOTE: I put these in before full deciding on my specific plays for the game so if you decide to tail this get the bet I used in the pick of NO DECIDER MAP PLAYED @ -233 in the KT match for better odds rather than the -1.5 @ -286.

KT Rolster -1.5 @ -286 + Kingzone -256  -  5 units - total odds: -114

KT Rolster -1.5 @ -286 + Kingzone -1.5 @ +116  -  5 units  -  total odds: +192KT Rolster -1.5 @ -286 + Kingzone -1.5 @ +116 + Hong Kong Attitude -370 -  1 unit  -  total odds: +270
KT Rolster -1.5 @ -286 + Kingzone -1.5 @ +116 + Hong Kong Attitude -370 + JD Gaming -370 + RNG -1.5 @ -263  -  1 unit  -  total odds: +549

Mixed parlay set here banking on what I think is a fairly easy to predict set of matches. We have called every match down to game score correct this week (even if we didn't necessarily bet it or bet in that direction for value reasons) EXCEPT EDG yesterday who are just raining on our parade.

Betting: August 8th (LCK, LPL)

LOL Champions Korea 8/8 Schedule:

Afreeca Freecs (-323, -1.5 @ -115)
@ Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 17.5
Jin Air GW (+237, +1.5 @ -116)


Griffin (-909, -1.5 @ -256)
@ Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 17.5
BBQ Olivers (+541, +1.5 @ +184)

(images compliments of lol.gamepedia.com) 

After this morning's matches let's take a look at how things stand. First of all I should have played to my gut on the sextuple 2-0 sweep parlay I wanted to do for LCK but instead added on RNG like an IDIOT to it. Anyway we'll be parlaying the sweeps for the rest of the LCK week because, spoiler alert, I think it's just going to be 2-0's all week. I'll be doing different iterations from 2-4 on this. I think it's a sweet opportunity to make a HUGE payday by Thursday morning. Secondly, KT completed step one on their journey to the #1 seed AND locking in a Worlds berth. Now all they need to do is not party too hard tonight and come out and smash MVP in the final match of the regular season on Thursday. Thirdly, in losing to KT without a single win this morning, HLE now no longer control their own fate and need a Jin Air upset. If they were able to take a single game this morning against KT they would have had the tiebreaker in game score if Jin Air were to take a game and lose but now Jin Air needs to win outright for them to hold the #5 seed. Fourthly, Jin Air are very likely to avoid relegation now unless MVP were to, by some miracle, beat KT Rolster 2-0 on Thursday morning. This means a few things, either they won't really care about tomorrow's match any longer or they'll want to really avoid relegations by taking a single game win. This is kind of a grey area and pretty weak logically so we're just going to assume something in the middle. Jin Air aren't really playing for much and frankly I think Jin Air or MVP would beat the #2 Challenger team Winners (formerly Ever8) pretty handedly anyway. The most important thing for the bottom table teams was to avoid DAMWON Gaming who look like they could be the next Griffin and are currently 20-1 in game score (+19) in the Challenger League which both MVP and Jin Air have already done. Good Luck BBQ!

And now the picks....

Handicapped: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ -108 (7 units)

PROP: Map 1 UNDER 36:00 @ -101 (1 unit)

PROP: Map 2 UNDER 36:00 @ -101 (1 unit)


THIS IS A HEAVILY FEELING/MOMENTUM BASED PICK. TAIL WITH CAUTION!!

I think you all saw this one coming. I know a lot of people are skeptical. Afreeca looked absolutely dreadful against HLE the other day but it's not like HLE are a bad team and to be honest with you I think maybe some nerves kicked in. So what's to stop the nerves from kicking in here? In my experience in both esports and traditional sports, teams that get a second chance or a new lease on life, or in this case a playoff opportunity, get a boost of energy and hope and that's an extremely powerful thing. Afreeca get a mulligan with HLE punting 2-0 this morning. Jin Air have nothing to really play for as the chances MVP 2-0 Thursday are slim to none especially with KT needing the 2-0 for #1 seed (and locking a World spot). It's not like Jin Air won't be trying here, they are professionals after all, but they won't exactly be particularly motivated either. They could have the "let's play spoiler" mentality but I'm confident that Afreeca 2-0 this even considering that. Let's rewind to last week before the HLE loss. Afreeca take a close series against a relatively weak but desparate SKT team. Teams in "must win" situations are tough but they got the job done. They did drop a game to MVP, an 0-2 against a hungry Kingzone and the heartbreaker loss to Gen.G. Before that they lost to BBQ 1-2. This has ben a really rough second half and I think Afreeca got a bit figured out. They also were toying with their roster, lost some power to the meta slightly shifting, and perhaps were resting on their laurels too much. I expect this second chance to be a jolt for them.. They aren't going to experiment or try new things they're going to do whatever it takes to win this series and lock up a playoff spot.

The logical wager would be for Afreeca to choke just like they did n Sunday against HLE but HLE are also a much better team than Jin Air are and a much more versatile one as well. Jin Air are really one dimensional and Afreeca are capable of playing both uptempo and scaling compositions. They are the jack of all trades but masters of none. Their average game time is deceptive to look at. This is a team that is very capable of playing faster games and I'm expecting that to happen here. Jin Air concede the early game in just about every draft because even when they try to play that way they're bad at it. They play to their win condition which is scaling for and protecting Teddy. Whether that's with snowbally mages or Yasuo bottom as Aiming has shown proficiency with, or with the variety of strong early game champions Kuro has shown this season like Leblanc, Galio, Lissandra, Rumble, Talon, and more I think the well coached Afreeca will have a solid game plan in place to take care of this and swiftly 2-0 this series. 

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PARLAY: Afreeca -1.5 + Griffin -1.5 (5 units to win ~13.4 units)

This is an absolutely massive parlay bet and I don't usually bet more than a unit or two on them but these are pretty good odds and I want to take advantage. I feel confidently that even as rookies Griffin can't mess this up and Afreeca should handedly take care of Jin Air as discussed above. However with the juice as high as it is in the Griffin series I'm just not going to touch it as a moneyline wager. If they're going to lose I'm going to limit my exposure to parlaying it not laying a ton of money on a -256 handicap.


I'm also going to parlay the sweeps for the rest of the week in as many iterations as I can. I'm basically betting against even a single upset game. There is just too much of a gap between the top and bottom teams and too much for the top teams to play for and too little for the bottom teams to play for to reasonably expect any game losses in this short week. This is a huge opportunity to make some money as we close out the regular season. It's also our last chance to push to pad our bankroll before Worlds.

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LOL Pro League (China) 8/8 Schedule:

EDward Gaming (-270, -1.5 @ +119)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 24.5
TopSports Gaming (+237, +1.5 @ -116)


Team WE (-156, -1.5 @ +189)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 24.5

OMG (+122, +1.5 @ -256)

Handicapped: EDG -1.5 maps @ +119 (5 units)

PROP: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -114  (1 unit)

PROP: Map 2 UNDER 34:00 @ -114  (1 unit)

This is going to look strange coming off of an embarassing loss to LGD Sunday morning to increase EDG's losing streak to four series in a row but I have my reasons. EDG have had two really bad losses in this four game streak. Losing 0-2 to BiliBili is pretty bad but was perhaps a bit of overconfidence as they had won seven of their first nine series before then and BiliBili was in must win mode. Losing to LGD, arguably the worst team in the LPL, is perhaps worse. They also took a game off of the best team in China in Invictus as well as a 26 minute win against JD who have proven to be one of the stronger early game teams in the league. This is all a really long-winded way of saying EDG are tough to pin down. We're going with a heavy wager on the EDG 2-0 and here's why.

If you look at a lot of EDG's drafts in the past couple weeks they've been very extremist in nature. They aren't drafting well rounded compositions. They're either all in early or late with no middle ground. In some ways this fits their style but they've also been mixing up their lineup to include ADC sub Hope and swapping ClearLove and Haro quite a bit. I want to see this team go back to their commitment to early game drafting and I think they absolutely will against TopSports. Why? Because TopSports are an early - mid game drafting team and when they lose it's because other teams draft strong early games to make sure they can't just snowball games. Almost every single one of TopSports losses this season has been the result of other teams choosing lanes that can actually fight back. Even the abysmal LGD took a series off TopSports with this strategy and they're an absolutely horrible early game team that almost never plays that style. As a matter of fact in that series LGD picked early game champions, staved off the aggression, faltered to close the game out and game two ended up dragging out to 43 minutes and they still won because of TopSports inability to close without an early lead. There have been a few isolated games where TopSports has shown a willingness to attempt scaling but they've only done it against bad teams like Vici and LGD and it mostly hasn't ended well when they do it. THIS IS EXTREMELY PREDICTABLE.

The last time these two faced EDG utterly smashed game one and then opted to play scaling with Kaisa in game two which ended up becoming a bloody mess of a game with 46 total kills. EDG will learn from their recent mistakes as well as their near game loss in the first series with TopSports. This team is significantly better than their recent performance has been. This is a Top 4 team in the LPL and other than experimenting with their lineup and some different draft strategies to become more well rounded, as elite teams are afforded the luxury to do, there is absolutely no reason they should be tied in the series standings with a team like TopSports. TopSports have been impressive this season, no doubt, but they're simply not this good and their record is the result of an extremely weak West Region. This is a spot where EDG will demonstrate why they're a full tier or more better than TopSports despite their record. EDG aren't the team you've seen the past couple weeks and with their #2 seed under threat I think you'll see the real deal here. EDG have used up their cushion. It's time to turn it up for playoffs.

NOTE: I'm not going with the OVER on kills because I think that game two in the first series was the result of a draft situation that I don't think EDG will put themselves in again. The meta was also much different then and Morgana bottom has fallen out of favor so forced dives and fights that end up in 1 for 1s or 2 for 3s and such don't happen as often as they did at the beginning of the season. I also think this is just going to be two fast games so I'm taking the UNDER on game time and not touching the kill totals despite leaning on the UNDER for those as well.

There is a good chance I'll up this wager if the line doesn't move too heavily so check Twitter.

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Team WE vs OMG

I can't get a feel for this game. Both of these teams are bottom dwellers that are feast or famine. If you go strictly by the metrics then Team WE is the selection here as they've done significantly more team damage with about the same resources but OMG are also the slightly stronger early game team. WE look like they've been fixing a lot of their obviously one dimensional tendencies and are at least picking one winning lane to stave off complete early game losses so that makes me lean slightly toward them but I'm really not sure. -156 is too much to pay for the slight lean. This line should probably be closer to -120/-101 or something. If you want the value OMG is the pick but im not confident enough to even put anything on this game.

Betting: August 7th (LCK, LPL)

LOL Champions Korea 8/7 Schedule:

Gen.G eSports (-833, -1.5 @ -217)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 17.5
MVP (+490, +1.5 @ +162)


KT Rolster (-179, -1.5 @ +165)
@ Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 18.5
Hanwha Life eSports (+139, +1.5 @ -222)

(images compliments of lol.gamepedia.com) 

Before we dive into the picks I want to discuss some of the standings implications for these matches. The final week of LCK is a shortened, three day week with every team playing one match EXCEPT for KT Rolster and MVP who have two. Playoff seeding for the Top 4 spots will likely rely a lot on tiebreakers like game differential and head-to-head matchups UNLESS there is an upset. Additionally remember that Korea uses a Playoff Gauntlet system. The #5 seed plays #4, winner plays #3, etc. so seeding is CRUCIAL.

Gen.G could move to 13-5 with a win which would put pressure on KT Rolster to actually win both of their matches this week. It would also force Kingzone to win their series in order to hold on to the #2 seed. KT Rolster, currently in the #4 seed, has the potential to end up with the #1 seed with back to back wins this week which is VERY feasable considering they face Hanwha tomorrow and MVP on Thursday. MVP are out of contention for the #7 spot but they're fighting for that #8 seed which would help them avoid the relegation tournament. With their challenger for that #8 seed Jin Air facing an Afreeca that could potentially be in "must win" situation if Hanwha were to lose today then I think we can consider MVP to be at least putting forth a full effort in these games as they do matter for something to them. There are other implications but I'll keep this relatively brief and pertinent to tomorrow's matches.

TL:DR - EVERYBODY is still playing for something EXCEPT BBQ Olivers and SK Telecom. Whether it's playoff gauntlet seeding, a playoff position, or to avoid relegation, the other eight teams all have a lot at stake and will be putting their all into these games. Al the top of the table is so close that every single game win and loss will count.

With that out of the way lets take a look at the picks.

Handicapped: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -217 (8 units)

As discussed above, Gen.G are currently holding the #3 seed with only this match to go so they'll be doing everything in their power to put themselves in the best position here. Their scenarios range from #1 to #4. With a 2-0 win and a loss by any score from Kingzone AND KT losing one of their next two series AND specifically a Griffin 0-2 loss they could rocket up to the #1 seed. They could also end up in the #4 seed even if they win 2-0 and KT gets at least +1 wins in their next two matches (3-2 for example).

All of this is a lot to keep track of so I'm just going to give you my opinion on what I think the most likely outcome is for Gen.G which is that they end up with the #4 seed despite 2-0'ing this series. I just think KT having two matches to play is such a huge edge for them so I don't see the "dream" situation for Gen.G happening with the top end teams having such easy matches this week (besides KT vs HLE). If HLE win 2-1 then that forces a necessary 2-0 by KT later this week against MVP which could be riveting but I digress.

The point I'm getting at is that Gen.G want to make this a clean 2-0 sweep to give themselves the best chance at something great. The scary part is that they could also just punt this game to "not show anything" and still end up AT WORST with the #4 seed. However with such a competitive top of the table in Korea, and Gen.G only having 10 championship points from the Spring Split I think it's safe to assume they'll show up here because they'll want the best chance possible to either win the Summer Split or acrue a big point total to get in that way without having to play it out for the 3rd Worlds spot in that separate gauntlet. MVP are fighting to avoid relegation but unfortunately for them I think Jin Air have looked better and MVP are about to run into two buzzsaws that will need all the wins they can get this week in Gen.G and KT Rolster. Gen.G don't really "stomp" games by the nature of how they play but they should be able to cleanly dispatch MVP and take care of business. I know this team has a tendency to not show up when it matters (except at Worlds last year) but I think they've got this one. I don't really think MVP has a strong chance even if Gen.G didn't have much to play for so I'm going with a huge 8 unit wager on this pick.
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Moneyline: KT Rolster -179  (5 units)

Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +165 (2 units)

As we've touched on a few times already this is, in my opinion, going to be the only competitive match this week but I happen to have a strong stance on it. We haven't discussed too much about Hanwha though. Hanwha have not mathematically secured the #5 seed away from Afreeca yet. If Hanwha lose and Afreeca win they'd have the same match score so the next tiebreaker is game differential. Currently Hanwha is 25-19 for +6 while Afreeca is 24-20 for +4. Afreeca winning 2-1 and Hanwha losing 1-2 would put them both at +5. Hanwha has the head to head tiebreaker so they'd get the #5 spot. If Hanwha gets 0-2'd and Afreeca wins by any score then Afreeca get it. If Afreeca lose then Hanwha get the spot no matter what. What this all means is that Hanwha are going to be giving it their all to take at least one game from KT Rolster so the logical bet would be to take the +1.5 or the KT 2-1 right? Yes that's right but we're looking to the next level.

KT would make their lives a lot easier with a 2-0 here and I personally think that, despite being right next to each other in the standings, there is a huge gap between the Top 4 teams and Afreeca and Hanwha. The metagame is trending back toward more traditional team compositions with either 2 or 2.5 core comps with a marksman becoming the norm again. Part of Hanwha's success this season was that they were good at the mage bottom comps ahead of the curve. As the season has gone on they've shown very limited progression. In other words they've stagnated. They aren't a one dimensional team by any stretch but they are limited in their potential upside. To me this team is well coached and disciplined but their ceiling isn't very high. They have a great player in Lava and everyone else is just pretty good or has been playing at their peak. Hanwha deserve to be the 5th or 6th best team and would likely trash teams from other regions but in Korea it's too competitive so it often comes down to how high your peaks can go. Historically the teams that do well in the late Summer in most regions are the ones that finally realize their potential, not the ones that are just maintaining and that's what I think is happening with these two teams. 

I know it's just one match and I'm extrapolating but KT Rolster have choked in big spots and tasted bitter defeat in these situations enough times that I actually think they're going to buck the trend and utterly smash Hanwha here. It's KT's time. The metagame is in their favor, they've own 8 of their last 10 matches and they're going to have that extra fire in their belly because of both the playoff seeding battle and because Hanwha 2-0'd them last time out and they'll want payback. First place is within reach for them. With back to back 2-0's putting them at 13-5 and +15 that would create a situation where they would have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Griffin and Kingzone 2-0'ing would only put them at +13. What I'm saying to you all is that I'm confident that's how this is going to end up. Your playoff seeding will be: #1 - KT Rolster, #2 - Griffin, #3 - Kingzone, #4 - Gen.G, #5 - Afreeca. I'm VERY LIKELY going to up the unit count on this but I'll admit I'm going to wait and see how the first match goes. I'll perhaps put winnings from that towards upgrading this.
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LOL Pro League (China) 8/7 Schedule:

Invictus Gaming (-714, -1.5 @ -189)
@ Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 24.5
BiliBili Gaming (+447, +1.5 @ +141)


Royal Never Give Up (-435, -1.5 @ -154)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 24.5

Suning Gaming (+307, +1.5 @ +113)

Handicapped: Invictus Gaming -1.5 @ -189 (6 units)

I like the direction the metagame is going for BiliBili but they'd been struggling to cleanly beat even bottom of the table teams like WE and OMG (who they lost to 0-2). Invictus are just going to run this team over. A common reservation for this match is going to be that Invictus have clinched playoffs and are two matches ahead of second place AND they have second place RNG on the slate later this week so why would they care about this? I'm going with the opposite angle. I think Invictus are going to want to clean up shop here and then beat RNG so they can eithe rest or conceal strategies for the last two weeks because they'll have the #1 seed locked up with back-to-back wins here this week. Stylistically this is a nightmare for BiliBili. Invictus have the fastest game time in the LPL at 29:17 (second is Rogue Warriors at 31:05). They are one of the best early game teams on the planet and BiliBili, much like WE, often concede the early game in an attempt to scale. The counterargument to this pick is that, while winning their last seven series in a row, Invictus have dropped one game in the past six of those series. Some of those have included weaker teams and similar teams to Bilibili like the aforementioned Team WE but I think Invictus squarely clean this one up. You're looking at a team that just beat Rogue Warriors in 24:24 and 19:54... that's right 19:54! Rogue Warriors are MILES better than BiliBili and I'm going to choose to go against the trend on this one and slam Invictus.

I might end up going with the UNDER's too here. Check twitter.
 

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Handicapped: RNG -1.5 maps @ -154 (2-4 units PENDING)
I might end up going with the -1.5 maps here but I'm going to wait until closer to game time to see how much I wager. If I hear definitively that Uzi is playing then I'll likely go 4 units on this. If not it'll either be smaller or no bet. Suning have been pretty good this season but they've also lost to WE and TopSports (yesterday) so I'm really not sure what to think of them. I know what they're good at and that's playing through Fury mid and late and H4cker getting them to that point from the jungle but I think RNG have the answers. They tend to handle these types of teams well. With Uzi in the lineup RNG handedly stomped this in under 63 minutes total their first meeting in Week 2. Check Twitter for this one as well.

Betting: August 6th (LPL)

LOL Pro League (China) 8/6 Schedule:

TopSports Gaming (-192, -1.5 @ +153)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 23.5
Team WE (+148, +1.5 @ -204)


FunPlus Phoenix (-156, -1.5 @ +179)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 22.5

OMG (+122, +1.5 @ -244)

Moneyline: TopSports Gaming -192 (2 units)

Handicapped: TopSports -1.5 @ +153 (1 unit)

PROP: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -114 (0.5 unit)

PROP: Map 2 UNDER 34:00 @ -114 (0.5 unit)

This slate in the LPL tomorrow is extremely difficult to call because all of these teams are remarkably inconsistent despite their total records and placements. TopSports is likely the strongest team in this bunch with a 15-17 game record while the others are 11 wins or less but I wouldn't call them a good team. This is usually a spot where I'll put a unit on the underdogs if the numbers are a big enough spread just because bad teams are closer to 50/50 when facing each other than even some good teams vs great teams so I like playing underdogs in those situations however I think TopSports have actually looked pretty good as of late and Team WE dropped a game to Vici yesterday. "But Gelati it's only one game?" you're right it's only one game but it's against the worst team in the league. Team WE did come back to convincingly win the next two so let's give them credit for that.

The thing with both of these teams is that they've had decent highs and low lows so it's tough to get a grasp. On paper Team WE are the better team both in metrics and just the player eye test but TopSports have been getting the job done all season. They've really taken advantage of the non-traditional ADCs and have been utilizing picks like Swain, Vladimir, and Morgana excellently which puts a lot of the weaker teams in a tough spot when drafting. They often get first blood and while their average game time is just about the league average they tend to win the matches in which they get ahead because of the snowbally compositions they play. Team WE are the opposite, opting to play traditional ADC's which are making their way back into the meta and slowly scaling into the late game.

I think TopSports are going to smoke this matchup and maybe this is a suckers bet between two fairly bad teams but this is a big stylistic mismatch for Team WE. TopSports have utilized the mage carries and Lucian to punish scaling bot lanes like Team WE like to play effectively all season and I think we'll see that again here. They're also coming off of a nice win against a team I'd consider a tier above them in Suning Gaming who remind me a lot of Team WE of old when they had a jungler that actually started fights to help carry their early game so they could scale. Suning are what Team WE want to be but are actually pretty good and TopSports beat them 2-1, they only failed to close it out in time in Game Two. The other options for bets in this match is to take the Over 2.5 games @ -125 or the exact TSG 2-1 but I'm liking TopSports to 2-0 this. They should be able to snowball off their bot lane and beat Team WE before they get to do what they like to do. Team WE haven't been a good defensive team which is a bad combination with wanting to scale every game (the exception being the TK + Orianna bot series against Suning which is easily bannable). TopSports could also take over 3rd place in the conference with a win to take a half match lead on Snake as well as come one series closer to locking at least the 4th playoff spot since OMG trail them by two series. Team WE have nothing to play for at this point. I'm still limiting this wager because I don't like going heavy on mediocre to bad teams but I'm fairly confident in TopSports here. I also like the under for half a unit each game. 

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FunPlus vs OMG

PROP: OVER 2.5 maps @ +107 (2 units)

FunPlus Phoenix have looked absolutely terrible in their past four sweries (including their 2-1 win over Vici) but then they took a series off RNG and a game off JD before that so what team are we going to see here? Personally I think this FunPlus team is garbage but they at least know who they are and that's a squad that plays around GimGoon's champion pool of weird top lane picks. OMG nearly had a perfect game against Invictus last week, 2-0'd BiliBili, and had a competitive game two against JD in their match this morning. They haven't really had a lot of consistency but they've been a team that reminds me of Jin Air, they're still playing hard, haven't quit on their season. OMG and TopSports aren't completely out of the playoff race yet. They trail both Snake and TopSports by 2 series so with a good run here they could actually still get into playoffs and potentially even take the 3rd seed. This should be a comptetive series. Both of these teams NEED this series to stay alive for playoffs and both could pull ahead of the other with a win here since they're tied in the standings. 

Betting: August 4th (LCK, LPL)

LOL Champions Korea 8/4 Schedule:

Griffin (-185, -1.5 @ +157)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 17.5
SK Telecom (+144, +1.5 @ -204)


Gen.G eSports (-435, -1.5 @ -115)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 16.5
Jin Air GW (+283, +1.5 @ -112)

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Handicapped: Griffin -1.5 maps @ +162 (3 units)

Let's break the scenarios down for SKT making playoffs:

Hanwha and Afreeca are both currently 9-7 match score, 23-18 game score. SKT is 8-8 with 20-20 game score.

Hanhwa plays Afreeca and KT Rolster, Afreeca plays Hanwha and Jin Air, SKT plays Griffin and Kingzone.

If SKT were to 2-0, 2-0 their next two matches it would still only put them at 10-8 match score and 24-20 game score. In order for SKT to make playoffs they would need Afreeca to exactly 2-1 Hanwha and then 0-2 against Jin Air which would put them to 25-21 game score. That would put both teams at +4, which is the first tiebreaker. The second tiebreaker is head to head record. SKT hold the 2-0 match record for the season. This EXACT situation is the ONLY way SKT can make playoffs since they don't hold the head to head against Hanwha.

With SK Telecom more or less mathematically eliminated from playoff contention I wouldn't be surprised to see the subs playing here. Griffin on the other hand are still in the tangle at the top of the standings battling for playoff seeding. So the question is do we think Griffin win this even with SKT literally fighting for their season lives in game one? I think they do. I've been saying Griffin have a lot of vulenrabilities but SKT have many more. I don't see SKT taking a game here. Even if they go back to Faker despite being better with Pirean I just don't see it happening. The reason I'm not going heavier on this is because SK Telecom do have side selection and this bet hinges a lot on game one. If SKT lose game one this is basically a lock to 2-0 as either the subs will be put in or SKT will not really have anything to play for in game two. Griffin have faltered as of late but they're on a whole other level compared to SKT. Check back for updates on Twitter as I may actually up the wager on this.

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Handicapped: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -115 (3 units)

Similar to the previous match except Jin Air have nothing to play for. Gen.G have been excellent this season. They just stuck to what they were good at and got rewarded for it. Coincidentally both of these teams play the same style. Slow, scaling, protect the carry. Gen.G are just better at it and also have the added upside of potentially just obliterating lanes so hard that it becomes easy to close a game out. I'm aware that Jin Air have looked better recently but with a lot on the line I don't think Gen.G will mess around. Again check back for updates closer to game time I might up this.

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LOL Pro League (China) 8/4 Schedule:

Royal Never Give Up (-357, -1.5 @ -120)
@ Over/Under 334:00, Total Kills 24.5
Snake eSports (+258, +1.5 @ -111)


Suning Gaming (-192, -1.5 @ +156)
@ Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 25.5

TopSports Gaming (+148, +1.5 @ -208)

Invictus Gaming (-154, -1.5 @ +162)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 24.5

Rogue Warriors (+120, +1.5 @ -217)

Handicapped: RNG -1.5 maps @ -115 (2 units)

I'm in a weird spot on this RNG team. I want to think they're now a tier 2 team and aren't elite anymore without Uzi playing but they've been scrapping and winning a lot of sloppy games and "getting the job done." Snake on the other hand just look off. Every time it looks like they've figured it out they either run into a good team and just get smashed. If you consider RNG a tier 2 squad now that puts them in line with teams like JD (maybe JD is better now?) and Suning, both of whom just convincingly 2-0d Snake. The question here is whether or not Flandre can carry this game by himself for Snake because they're outmatched at every other position including RNG's sub ADC Able. I don't think he can. If you think he can then I think the RNG 2-1 exact score is more what you're looking for. RNG should sweep this. Xiaohu has been on an absolute tear as of late and Karsa finally seems to be settling in with RNG and is showing his LMS dominant form. Mostly this is just that Snake just can't seem to put everything together. Outside of one match win against EDG in Week 3 this roster hasn't beaten a top half team. They did take one game off of Invictus with an unexpected funnel composition but other than that and the EDG wins they haven't even taken games off of Suning or JD. I have non-Uzi RNG in that Suning/JD tier. If you think Flandre can break serve with side selection and a counterpick then feel free to bet the 2-1 but I'm thinking RNG can hold off game one and smash game two.

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Moneyline: Suning Gaming -175 (3 units)

Handicapped: Suning -1.5 maps @ +171 (1 unit)

Suning have been quite good this past week with 2-0's against the middling Snake and FunPlus. Before that they lost to Team WE which is concerning and punted a game to OMG. Other than these instances this has been a solid team that's been taking games off of top teams like RW, IG, and JD. Suning are exceptionally good at what they do and fit the current 2.5 carry metagame extremely well. This is the wheelhouse H4cker, Angel, and Fury want to live in and they've been thriving. TopSports have been surprisingly decent but very VERY inconsistent. Losses to LGD, OMG, and a BiliBili that was struggling mightily at the time certainly don't look good on their resume but they've also taken games off of Invictus and even won a 2-1 series against JD. If you consider RNG, JD, and Suning in a similar level then we can extrapolate a bit based on TSG's recent matches against those teams which haven't looked particularly great outside of the JD win. I also think this team has been overperforming all season. This isn't a great team. Their record is a bit better than they actually are and Suning are in a great spot at the moment. I think there's a pretty good shot of a Suning 2-0 here but I'm going to stick mostly to the moneyline.

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Prop: IG vs RW OVER 2.5 maps played @ +107 (2 units)

My gut tells me Invictus win this 2-1 but Rogue Warriors might win 2-1 with side selection. Regardless I think we're going to three games here. These are, in my opinion, the two best teams in the LPL right now so I'm looking forward to this match but don't have a strong enough leaning either way. Should be a close match!

Betting: August 3rd (LPL)

Something a little different here. A DOTA2 pick. Compliments of /u/sorryresponsibility for pointing out that the OpenAI Bot Team plays against the DotA Pros on Saturday. I found -313 on BOL and bet  the max on it. The bot has a 90% win rate in 1v1s and while I think it might be a little less than that in a team setting I think overcoming that type of individual mismatching is extremely difficult in MOBAs. I like the bots for 4 units.

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LOL Pro League (China) 8/3 Schedule:

LGD Gaming (-156, -1.5 @ +185)
@ Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 24.5
FunPlus Phoenix (+122, +1.5 @ -250)


BiliBili Gaming (-123, -1.5 @ +230)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 24.5
Team WE (-103, +1.5 @ -323)

Moneyline: BiliBili Gaming -123 (4 units)

Handicapped: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ +230 (1 unit)

The metagame is trending in a positive direction for both of these teams but the difference is that BiliBili were a top six team when this type of meta was more prevalent like it was the entirety of last season. Now they were starting Athena every game during that era but still I think this team is build for controlled, scaling stylings. Team WE are scary because they have a previous worlds lineup and this SHOULD be better. Maybe this is the match they reappear but BiliBili have looked much better recently now that they've settled into playing their own game instead of trying to imitate everyone else. Team WE remind me a lot of AHQ in the LMS, a former Worlds contending lineup that just either doesn't have it anymore or doesn't care anymore. However it's always challenging because teams like that can ocassionally show shadows of their former selves and that could happen here. The concern I have is that BiliBili don't really punish poor early games well and letting Team WE get through early game unphased is one of the only ways they can win. I'm mostly just betting on BiliBili being a better late game team as well.

The theme today is betting bad teams against each other which is something I normally limit myself on but these lines seems quite a bit off to me so I'm going to attack the poor lines regardless or the randomness of poor teams facing each other. I'm willing to take the hit here. Tail at your own risk.

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Moneyline: FunPlus Phoenix +122 (4 units) 

I don't really understand why FunPlus are the underdogs here. Neither of these teams are particularly great but FunPlus are, to me at least, a bit above the true bottom dwellers of the LPL (Vici, LGD). That about sums this up. LGD should be better than they are, much like Team WE, but they just aren't. FunPlus have had their moments this season with wins against RNG and a game win against JD. LGD haven't had any of those with all their wins against low tier teams and even had a loss to Vici, who I consider the worst team in the LPL. Ultimately this is two bad teams so tail at your own risk  I'll limit what I'm wagering on this one for that exact reason but I'm going to try to attack what I'm viewing as a faulty line. FunPlus have side advantage and this line should probably be FPP -120 / LGD -105 or something like that. 

Betting: August 2nd (LCK, LPL)

LOL Champions Korea 8/2 Schedule:

Hanwha Life eSports (-370, -1.5 @ -115)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 18.5
MVP (+266, +1.5 @ -112)


KT Rolster (-500, -1.5 @ -149)
@ Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 17.5
Jin Air GW (+340, +1.5 @ +109)

Handicapped: Hanwha Life -1.5 maps @ -115 (5 units)

With a win here against MVP Hanwha Life can pull a full match ahead of SK Telecom and once again tie Afreeca for the 5th playoff spot. This is a crucial game for Hanwha who played an extremely competitive and entertaining series against Kingzone yesterday. Hanwha are a good team, maybe not a great team but a good team and in an important spot like this I expect them to crush MVP. Be warned that this isn't a case of MVP "mailing it in" for the season. They could actually avoid relegations by pulling ahead of Jin Air with whom they are tied in match score and down a game in game score. Expect MVP to be fighting to avoid relegations and potentially the "baby Griffin" in Damwon.

Even considering both teams playing a hard fought match and MVP to not mail it in here I still think Hanwha spike the 2-0. Hanwha won the first meeting in 57 total minutes, they looked really good against Kingzone yesterday and appear to be out of this weird funk they were in last week with the substitutions and all that going on. Hanwha Life are at least a tier better than MVP, perhaps two and I just can't see the extremely one dimensional MVP taking games off of a team like Hanwha who are always well-prepared by an excellent coaching staff (minus that weird thing last week...).

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Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ -149 (5 units)

PROP: Map 1 UNDER 36:00 @ -114 (1 unit)

PROP: Map 2 UNDER 36:00 @ -114 (1 unit)

The beautiful part about the Top 4 spots STILL being within a game of each other is that every team is going to be fighting for better playoff seeding which means these poor bottom of the table teams just get obliterated. There's no "coasting" because of a clinched position or anything in the LCK so expect KT Rolster to be prepared for this one. I know, I know, the "KT ROLLERCOASTER" Effect could be in full effect but I'm betting against it. This is crunch time and KT have been traumatized by a past riddled with "choke" performances. They'll take this seriously.

On the other side, Jin Air have looked at least a little better recently as the meta is shaping into something more up their alley. They're also battling MVP to avoid relegation so I don't think they'll be just rolling over here but if they are going to run out Justice and KaKao, who were horrible the other day, then perhaps this will be easier than we thought. Man is it sad to say KaKao is horrible .... :-(. 

Anyway the under number is all the way up at 36:00 minutes under the assumption that "both of these teams play slow and steady" which is true but I don't think Jin Air have the potential to win a game early while KT could still just steamroll these games. I also think KT WILL steamroll these games. The under for kills isn't out of the question here but I'm going to think on that some more. I expect 11-4 clean win type games from KT Rolster here especially since they've really settled into who they want to be as a calculated, scaling team with the ability to still spike early games.


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LOL Pro League (China) 8/2 Schedule:


EDward Gaming (-105, +1.5 @ -333)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 24.5
Rogue Warriors (-120, -1.5 @ +235)


I've been getting destroyed in the LPL recently. Since 7/22 I'm 8 - 14 in selections. Admittedly a lot of these were smaller wagers attempting to attack line values and the majority of them were attempting to do so via handicaps. I perhaps underrated how competitive some of the bottom tier teams could be against non-elite squads but we also had a few matches last week where good teams messed around for a game and punted. Anyway I don't want to dwell on it too much, I still feel I'm significantly better than numbers suggest in this region and until today when we dipped to close to +0 we have been profitable despite the sub.500 record.

Moneyline: Rogue Warriors -120 (5 units)

I still have to rewatch game three of this series as I was distracted while doing so earlier but if EDG struggled with JDG then Rogue Warriors will be an even harder test and on back to back days like this they're going to have their work cut out for them. Game One of EDG/JD was a really REALLY weird 50+ minute back and forth throws by both teams. Game Two ended decidedly in EDG's favor but again a lot of dumb mistakes by both teams. Beautiful team fighting and decisive play but a lot of mistakes by both sides. It's also notable that Hope started at ADC.

There's a chance RW are looking forward to their match against Invictus later this week but one of the interesting effects of conference play is that there's a much higher chance they aren't focusing as much on that matchup. You could say the same for EDG who just lost to out of conference opponent JD. Rogue Warriors could all but lock up the #1 seed in the West with a win here. RW are 10-2 and EDG, in 2nd place, are 7-5. EDG won the first meeting 2-0 in Week 3 which will give them even more incentive to do so to avoid any sort of tiebreaker situation should it come up. Rogue Warriors have looked significantly cleaner in their games against both good and bad teams. My only concern here is that RW haven't faced a good team since RNG on 7/22 so perhaps an easy past three matches could have them sleeping a bit. I'm not going to put that much weight on that. Rogue Warriors also get side selection in this match.

If RW had been coming off of a good win against a good team I'd probably play the handicap here too but we're going to stick to the moneyline on this one. I think EDG have a likely chance of taking a game but we're going to keep this one simple and not take the over 2.5 maps either although I wouldn't fault you for that. 


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