Saturday, March 3, 2018

Betting: March 4th (LPL / LCK / NA LCS)

Personal Early Line Projections:
These are what I believe the line should be not what I think the books will put it at. I will write this down before looking at the lines the books set for the day as a gauge of whether or not my expectations are in or out of line on the game. I typically weigh my own expectations a lot more because unlike in traditional sports I don't think the books know what they're doing or they just let an algorithm set their lines. 

SK Telecom -186 (65%) @ Jin Air

KSV eSports -233 (70%) @ MVP

Counter Logic Gaming @ Team Liquid -186 (65%)

OpTic Gaming @ Echo Fox -300 (75%)
100 Thieves @ Team Solo Mid -186 (65%)
Cloud 9 -300 (75%) @ Golden Guardians
FlyQuest @ Clutch Gaming -186 (65%)


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LCK March 4th Schedule:



SK Telecom (-250, -1.5 @ +118, M1 -200, M2 -200, M3 -200)

@ (Over/Under  37:00, Total Kills 17.5)
Jin Air (+182, +1.5 @ -161, M1 +145, M2 +145, M3 +145)


KSV eSports (-417, -1.5 @ -128, M1 -286, M2 -286, M3 -286)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 17.5)
MVP (+272, +1.5 @ -105, M1 +206, M2 +204, M3 +204)


Handicapped: SK Telecom -1.5 maps @ +118 (2 units)

Moneyline: SK Telecom -250  (3 units)

There are so many ways you could look at this match. Jin Air should have 2-0'd BBQ but they looked sloppy and made terrible decisions as well as mechanical misplays but they also destroyed Afreeca coming out of the break. SKT soundly defeated the surging ROX Tigers but struggled against an Afreeca team that's towards the top of the league but opted to use subs for the first two games so maybe "staying competitive" in that series doesn't really say as much as you'd think at first glance. 

If you were to make the pro-Jin Air argument you'd talk about how dominantly the defeated Afreeca and were able to hang in against KT Rolster in a 2-1 loss. Grave and UmTi have been exceeding expectations this season and Teddy has been his awesome self. They also defeated SK Telecom from down a game in the last series they played in week one. They also have side selection.


  • Jin Air looked absolutely dreadful in the second half of game one and in all of game two against a BBQ Olivers team that, quite frankly, is very weak and inconsistent. They were unable to close out leads in both games because of poor decision making and individual misplays.
  • SK Telecom are a different team than the iteration of SKT that Jin Air faced the first time and that was a slugfest of a series that easily could have been an SKT 2-0.
  • The first loss is going to be sticking in SKT's mind.
  • Statistically these teams are very similar and their players are very similar across the board (except at support). In the standings SKT have a one series lead on Jin Air for the 6th place spot but absolutely need this win to keep pace with KSV who will likely win against MVP today. Perhaps I'm wrong but I think SKT are going to be hungrier for this win. This is a dangerous line of thinking though because Jin Air more or less MUST WIN this game unless you want to assume they'll sweep 6 in a row against Kongdoo, MVP, KSV, Afreeca, Kingzone, and ROX (in that order)
  • Jin Air have the easiest schedule next week with Kongdoo followed by MVP, while SKT have Kingzone on Tuesday and KT Rolster on Thursday. You could paint this picture either way as Jin Air slacking heading into the week or prepping for this match. You could also say the same about SK Telecom.
I'm going with SK Telecom for the 2-0 and while that seems like a completely insane call hear me out. Both of these teams have shown inconsistencies and both have shown good form. I think SKT look like a better team right now. You could argue that Jin Air's victory against Afreeca coming out of the week off was a holiday hangover for Afreeca or the extra week to prepare leading to more decisive play but Afreeca have been back to themselves since then while Jin Air have really struggled since then. What I'm saying is I don't think that's a coincidence. The metagame on 8.3 (Korea is still on 8.3) is great for Faker and he'll demand Azir ban and possibly others like Kassadin, especially if Taliyah is the game plan from Grace (it's been his best champion despite his 2-3 record in my opinion). 

For what it's worth the line value screams Jin Air to me as I had this line set at -185 and I wouldn't blame you for putting a unit or two on Jin Air just in theory because the value is great but I just can't ignore my gut on this. 


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Handicapped: KSV -1.5 maps @ -128  (2 units)

I know I know. This KSV team has just killed me all season long but here's my justification. Currently their 5th seed playoff spot is threatened by their seemingly lazy play and preparation in recent weeks and with a surging SK Telecom and ROX Tigers behind them KSV HAVE TO CARE ABOUT THIS MATCH. They've also been fairly consistent about beating the bottom half teams in the league (besides that Kongdoo match). They may not be able to beat the good teams but this is a team that has more or less taken care of business against the bad teams with 2-0 victories against MVP, Jin Air, and a 2-1 against BBQ. The last time these two teams faced off KSV won game one in 28 minutes and that was when average game time was 37+ minutes. Traditionally MVP have struggle with teams who have strong laners because they have trouble transitioning out of lane from behind and KSV, love em or hate em, have excellent laners across the board. 

Something just tells me KSV are going to rofl-stomp this one. Their players are simply too good for this team not to do so against the bad rosters.


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LPL March 4th Schedule:



Snake eSports (-175, -1.5 @ +158, M1 -164, M2 -164, M3 -164)

@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 20.5)
Suning Gaming (+136, +1.5 @ -208, M1 +124, M2 +124, M3 +124)


Team WE (-588, -1.5 @ -159, M1 -357, M2 -357, M3 -357)
@ (Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 20.5)
TopSports Gaming (+353, +1.5 @ +116, M1 +240, M2 +243, M3 +243)


Moneyline: Snake eSports -175 (3 units)

This feels like it could be a surprisingly tough series for Snake as Suning have been showing very strongly but this Snake team is just so solid and consistent. They don't lose drafts on whacky picks, they know exactly who they are and play within their pools. Hell we haven't even seen a whacky Flandre pick yet this season and usually when that happens he ends up styling on some poor soul. I'm surprised this line is actually this close because as good as Suning have been Snake are more than likely the second or third best team in the LPL. They've done a great job of dispatching of mid and lower tier teams with their only match losses coming to Invictus (the best team in the league) last week and before that you'd have to go all the way back to a bizarre week one series against FunPlus Phoenix and we all know how weird week ones can be. 

If I didn't have as much respect for Suning as I do I'd probably hammer this and take the -1.5 as well but I think this could be a competitive series. 

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Moneyline: Team WE -1.5 @ -159  (3 units)

Team WE are coming off of a solid win against a strong JD Gaming team and have had no problem taking care of bottom of the table teams with 2-0's against OMG and Vici and a weird 2-1 against FunPlus Phoenix who seem to be just a tad better than the truly bad squads. TopSports might be the worst team in the LPL with Vici Gaming's new additions seemingly bringing a new complexion to that team. Marin is quite the player that's about all they've god and with Team WE still maintaining the same worlds roster from the past year I think it's about time they start kicking it into gear for a playoff push as they currently sit in the middle of the table after a relatively tough schedule the past two weeks which included JD, RNG, Rogue Warriors, and EDward Gaming.

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North American LCS March 4th Schedule:


CLG +189 @ Liquid -250
OpTic Gaming +181 @ Echo Fox -238
100 Thieves +133 @ Team Solo Mid -182
Cloud 9 -435 @ Golden Guardians +281
FlyQuest +122 @ Clutch Gaming -167

I'm limiting wagers to 2 units because I still don't have a good read on this patch and how teams are responding to it. I'm making one exception for NA today because I have a strong feeling about it. I'm also dodging the props for today for the same reason.

Moneyline: Team Liquid -250  (2 units)

(UPDATE: Hedged this at CLG -227 at 19 minutes to cut losses to less than half a unit. Might add on.)

CLG benefitted a lot from some big mistakes by Cloud 9 with a lead. They were once again behind in a game and I can't see Liquid not getting a lead against this team especially with side choice.

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Moneyline: Echo Fox -238  (2 units)

Echo Fox are going to be looking to come back after an embarassing loss to Golden Guardians yesterday to maintain their grip on first place.


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Moneyline: Team Solo Mid  -182 (3 units) 

This is my only bet in NA or EU over my 2 unit Patch 8.4 limit for the weekend after a brutal Friday. A win here will give TSM a lthe lead over 100 Thieves. TSM have looked excellent the past two weeks decisively beating everybody they've faced and while 100 Thieves have more or less only won games against teams that don't pressure them. I predicted TSM would be the best team in NA by the end of the season and while their record may not state that they certainly look like they're on schedule to reach that form by seasons end.

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Moneyline: Clutch Gaming -167 (2 units)

FlyQuest are more or less mathematically eliminated and have lost three straight to teams in the top half of the standings. Their last two wins were against OpTic and CLG so while they can hang and beat the bottom teams in the league they have struggled mightily with the better squads.

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Friday, March 2, 2018

Betting: March 3rd

Personal Early Line Projections:
These are what I believe the line should be not what I think the books will put it at. I will write this down before looking at the lines the books set for the day as a gauge of whether or not my expectations are in or out of line on the game. I typically weigh my own expectations a lot more because unlike in traditional sports I don't think the books know what they're doing or they just let an algorithm set their lines. 

Kongdoo Monster @ Kingzone DragonX -900 (90%)

ROX Tigers -186 (65%)@ BBQ Olivers

ROCCAT @ Splyce -150 (60%)

Unicorns of Love @ FC Schalke 04 -186 (65%)
H2K @ Misfits Gaming -233 (70%)
Fnatic -186 (65%) @ Team Vitality
G2 eSports -233 @ Giants Gaming


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LCK March 3rd Schedule:



Kongdoo Monster (+424, +1.5 @ +163, M1 +313, M2 +313, M3 +313)

(Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 17.5)
Kingzone DragonX (-769, -1.5 @ -227, M1 -500, M2 -500, M3 -500)



ROX Tigers (-213, -1.5 @ +165, M1 -143, M2 -145, M3 -145)

@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 19.5)
BBQ Olivers (+162, +1.5 @ -222, M1 +108, M2 +107, M3 +107)


Handicapped: Kingzone DragonX -1.5 maps @ -227 (4 units)


Prop: Map 1 UNDER 35:00 @ -116 (1 unit)


Prop: Map 2 UNDER 35:00 @ -116 (1 unit)


Prop: Map 1 Kingzone First Blood @ -167 (0.5 unit)


Prop: Map 2 Kingzone First Blood @ -167 (0.5 unit)


Kongdoo have had just a single game win in their past 8 matches (1-15). Sadly Kongdoo are in the terrible limbo spot where they're too good for the Korean Challenger scene but not good enough for the LCK. Yes they'll take wins here and there but they are more or less reliant on massive enemy mistakes. If you watch their most recent series' on this 8.3 patch they just seem so slow to make plays happen. At least with MVP, the other bottom team, we get aggression that just fails sometimes (something they weren't doing earlier in the season). Kongdoo had their one Galio comp and Zoe carry them to all their wins this season. Once you take those picks away they've shown just about nothing. Kingzone actually messed up against MVP, gave away 4 dragons (including 3 infernals) and still beat MVP in 38 minutes. I expect a thorough stomping in this one. I rarely lay this much on a handicapped bet but I'd be utterly shocked if Kingzone even drop a game here.
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Moneyline: ROX Tigers -213  (3 units)


Handicapped: ROX Tigers -1.5 maps @ +165 (2 units)


Prop: Map 1 UNDER 37:00 @ -128 (1 unit)


Prop: Map 2 UNDER 37:00 @ -116 (1 unit)




I discussed this a bit during the ROX vs KT series but I think this ROX team is just good. Lava has really emerged as an elite player surrounded by savvy veterans and they're showing the ability to beat elite teams like KT Rolster convincingly and if not, at least hang with them in games like they did against Kingzone. ROX have impressed me time and time again this season and I think we've seen enough to be convinced that this is actually an A Tier team and perhaps more. They've been really consistently beating everybody that they should be with their only losses coming against SKT (2x), Afreeca (1x), KT Rolster (1x), and Kingzone (1x). 


  • BBQ have been one of the most unpredictable and frustrating teams this season for me (read: they've lost me a lot of units via the Kingzone and JAG upsets and taking a game off KSV who I now know is mediocre). So here's my thoughts. 
  • They got completely dismantled by MVP (one of the bottom two teams in the league, maybe three if your optimistic).
  •  Against Jin Air they were ahead in the first game against a Taliyah tempo composition and surprised Jin Air with the Leona pick and it STILL took them 50 minutes to close. In game two they once again had a lead and tempo advantage, this time against a Caitlyn + Taliyah tempo comp (which absolutely sucks if it gets behind) that also had an Illaoi on which SoHwan had one of the worst games I've seen him play in the past year or so overextending early to get himself camped and it still took a 59th minute stupid mistake by Jin Air for BBQ to close this game. 
  • Jin Air looked horrible in this game and these weren't forced errors either they were just really poor decisions and mechanical misplays by every single player on Jin Air. 
  • The fact that it took BBQ 59 minutes to close this game out and 50 minutes to close the first game out with the other team playing horribly and more or less handing you a lead on a silver platter is a bad look.


Truth is, I think this BBQ team sucks and as frustrating as they've been to me I'm not going to be gun-shy on this. ROX have looked excellent of late and like a true playoff contender.  If BBQ are gonna kill me again then so be it but even if ROX doesn't perform quite to their most recent level I still think they should 2-0 this. 



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LPL (China) March 3rd Schedule:







Moneyline: LGD Gaming -128 (2 units)


Handicapped: LGD Gaming -1.5 maps @ +242 (0.5 units)


Yesterday I talked a lot about how this LGD team is significantly better than their schedule and then they go right ahead and give Vici their first match win of the season. The thing is this was a different Vici Gaming and it was talked about a lot on the cast. For the first time in, since who knows when, Vici were aggressive early and pushing the tempo of the game. LGD drafted to scale and got punished for it by a Vici team that is slowly but surely starting to gel with new member Swift and veteran Easyhoon showing why the ex-LCK connection can work. Swift took over this game one on Khazix and did the same in game two on Nidalee. I'm actually willing to throw LGD a bone here because I don't think they could have seen this Vici Gaming coming. It's still a bummer but I like the redemption aspect here.


FunPlus Phoenix on the other hand have have had three of the four match wins in the past four weeks against TopSports, JD, and Vici with their only loss coming to Invictus where they still took game two against the zero tank disrespect composition from IG. They've shown the ability to steal games off top teams but not consistently.


I'm putting two units on LGD here with the faith that the uptempo look Vici gave them will remind them that they can't go all in on late game even against other weaker teams. I also think side choice for counterpicks/priority picks matters more in the LPL than any other region because of the high skirmish, aggressive playstyle present. It's also possible that, having just played today, that LGD were perhaps looking past Vici to this match and their preparation was put here.



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Moneyline: Invictus Gaming  (2 units)

A battle between two of the LPL's juggernaut organizations should be a great match. I think Invictus are just slightly more consistent and have a stronger roster top to bottom. The main tiebreaker to me is the top half of the map for IG. TheShy and Ning have been taking over games to relieve pressure for their two incredibly gifted carries in Rookie, who I think is one of the best players in the world over the past couple years and particularly now, and JackeyLove who has been on fire all season on seven different champion picks. Invictus are dealing an absurd 2306 damage per minute as a team (the highest in the world for the five major regions) and have racked up a gold differential per minute of +268 to . For comparison EDG are 1927 and +76.

It wouldn't shock me to see EDG take a game or perhaps even the series as these are two very strong teams I just think Invictus Gaming are the best team in China with, in my opinion, the best player in China in Rookie and in a region that fights and skirmishes as much as the LPL does, having superior individual players prevails significantly more often than in other leagues.


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European LCS March 3rd Schedule:


ROCCAT +132 @ Splyce -169
G2 eSports -244 @ Giants +173
H2K +170 @ Misfits -238
Fnatic -204 @ Team Vitality +150
Unicorns of Love +116 @ Schalke 04 -159

Absolutely brutal 0-5 day in EU yesterday and it appears this patch is just wild so I'll be limiting wagers to 2 units maximum today until I get a better feel for this patch and whether it's actually this high variance or if teams just had the wrong reads. Actually running short on time here, I'll have more detail for NA LCS, but these are all basically reads on game tempo and who I think will win and how strongly I feel about that possibility (2 units strong feeling).


Moneyline: Splyce -169  (2 units)


Prop: UNDER 38:00 @ -116 (1 unit)


Prop: UNDER 19.5 kills @ -116 (0.5 unit)



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Moneyline: G2 eSports -244 (2 units)


Prop: UNDER 37:00 @ -103 (1 unit)


Prop: UNDER 20.5 kills @ -116 (0.5 unit)



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Moneyline: Misfits -238   (2 units)




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Moneyline: Fnatic -204  (2 units)

Prop: UNDER 37:00 @ -116  (1 unit)


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Moneyline: Schalke 04  -159  (2 units)

Prop:  OVER 19.5 kills @ -109  (0.5 unit)


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TCL (Turkey) March 3rd Schedule:


Moneyline: Royal Bandits @ Galakticos UNDER 32:00 @ -116 (1 unit)


Moneyline: TEAM AURORA @ SuperMassive TNG UNDER 33:00 @ -116  (1 unit)




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NA LCS March 3rd Schedule:

(No wagers, book is down)

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Thursday, March 1, 2018

Betting: March 2nd (LMS / LPL / EU LCS)

Personal Early Line Projections:
These are what I believe the line should be not what I think the books will put it at. I will write this down before looking at the lines the books set for the day as a gauge of whether or not my expectations are in or out of line on the game. I typically weigh my own expectations a lot more because unlike in traditional sports I don't think the books know what they're doing or they just let an algorithm set their lines. 

H2k -120 (54.5%) @ Unicorns of Love

ROCCAT @ Giants -150 (60%)
Vitality @ S04 -120 (54.5%)
Splyce @ G2 -300 (75%)
Misfits @ Fnatic -186 (65%)


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LPL March 1st Schedule:


Suning Gaming (-145, -1.5 @ +190, M1 -125, M2 -125, M3 -125)

@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 19.5)
OMG (+113, +1.5 @ -270, M1 -109, M2 -109, M3 -109)



Vici Gaming (+216, +1.5 @ -125, M1 +177, M2 +177, M3 +177)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 21.5)
LGD Gaming (-303, -1.5 @ -111, M1 -250, M2 -250, M3 -250)


Moneyline: Suning Gaming -145 (2 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -116 (0.5 unit)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 34:00 @ -116 (0.5 unit)

I desparately want to hammer this game because Suning have been the better team in more or less every possible way but there's an interesting wrinkle to this one. OMG are going to be playing in their brand new "home" venue for tomorrow's match. For those that don't know, the LPL is divided into the East and West conferences based on the home headquarters of the teams in that division. A couple of the teams actually have home stadiums the games are played in (Snake, OMG, and LGD). Construction finished up and this will be their first game in the new stadium with an opening ceremony featuring Dada777 and Gogoing, two of OMG's strongest players of all time. 


Season 8 has been about the teams that "show up" and while I like to think OMG will do so in their brand new facility I can't help but think the better team will be just as motivated to play spoiler. However, this is an out of conference game for Suning and they have to physically travel from their home in Eastern China to OMG's home in the Western providence of Chengdu. Not only that but Suning also have to face Snake eSports next week who ALSO have a home stadium in Chongquing so this is a bit of a real road trip for them. Perhaps that's why this line is where it is because prior to knowing OMG would be playing in their new stadium I would have put this line at something around -233 (70%) in favor of Suning. This would have been a 3 or 4 unit wager and probably a half or full unit on the sweep as well but I'm inclined to hang back a little on this especially because it's a relatively new scenario to League eSports. Snake lost their home stadium debut but it was against Invictus who are just steamrolling everybody so I won't hold that against them.


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Handicapped:  LGD Gaming -1.5 maps @ -111 (2 units)


Prop: Map 1 UNDER 35:00 @ -128 (0.5 unit)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 35:00 @ -116 (0.5 unit)

LGD have had a nightmarish schedule recently with both Invictus and Snake before the New Year's break and BiliBili afterwards. They took games off of Snake and Invictus, 2-1'd new hotshots Rogue Warriors and 2-1'd RNG. LGD are better than their record shows and I expect them to go on a bit of a run in the next couple of weeks when their schedule eases up. 

Vici went the first seven series with one game win but have two in their last two matches one against TopSports and one against RNG. Easyhoon and Swift are excellent players capable of carrying a team and with just two series together under their belts there's room for this team to improve. I mean you can't really get much worse than 3 -18. 

With that said I'm going with LGD here. They've shown better against better teams than Vici and while I'm not betting the house on it I do feel good about a couple units on the sweep here. 



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League Masters Series (Taiwan) March 1st Schedule:




Flash Wolves (-526, -1.5 @ -167, M1 -357, M2 -357, M3 -357)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 21.5)
Machi eSports (+340, +1.5 @ +123, M1 +244, M2 +245, M3 +245)


J Team (-588, -1.5 @ -164, M1 -370, M2 -370, M3 -370)

@ (Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 21.5)
Hong Kong Attitude (353, +1.5 @ +120, M1 +256, M2 +256, M3 +256)


Handicapped: Flash Wolves -1.5 maps @ -167 (3 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -116 (1 unit)


Prop: Map 1 Flash Wolves First Blood @ -175 (0.5 unit)


Prop: Map 2 Flash Wolves First Blood @ -175 (0.5 unit)




Flash Wolves are just dumpstering the LMS in downright dominating fashion. Much like SuperMassive in the TCL, this is like James Harden showing up to a college basketball game but hey, at least it's not a high school league? I even think J Team and G-Rex aren't particularly great and their numbers are propped up by the bottom 5 being so horrifically bad by professional standards. It's weird. This region used to produce two good teams but I think that may be down to one. It's possible that by the end of the year, an entire two seasons of playing against Flash Wolves will improve everyone but unless Flash Wolves decide to take a nap for this match it'll be a beatdown.

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Handicapped: J Team - 1.5 maps @ -164 (2 units)

I'm not going to roll any props on this one because J Team tend to play a lot of protect the carry comps which can take a long time to scale and often surrender early pressure in exchange for mid and late game superiority. I still think they'll handedly 2-0 but 33 minutes is a pretty tight window. Wouldn't surprise me if they hit the under but I'm avoiding it for now.


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European LCS March 2nd Schedule:


H2k +108 @ Unicorns of Love -143
Team ROCCAT -101 @ Giants Gaming -130
Team Vitality -119 @ FC Schalke 04 -114
Splyce +190 @ G2 eSports -263
Misfits +133 @ Fnatic -175


Moneyline: H2k +108  (1 unit)

Prop: OVER 19.5 total kills @ -116 (2 units)

Both of these bottom of the league squads look like they're finally figuring themselves out a bit. The Shook and Selfie addition to H2K has made a big difference in early macro decisions and overall stability. UOL have just decided to embrace the aggression and it's worked out for them. I'm going with H2K here because I do think they're a slightly better roster and have looked better to me. The numbers won't dictate that but their in game decisions have been so much better while Unicorns have honestly been a little bit lucky to have so many coinflip scenarios work out in their favor. I'm also taking the over on total kills for this game because in five of the last six games these teams have played (not against each other), there have been over 25 kills and in three of those games over 30. Unicorns of Love play to fight constantly now whether the game is long or short so I absolutely LOVE the OVER 19.5 kills here even more than the moneyline.

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Moneyline: Giants Gaming -130  (1 unit)

It's extremely difficult to get a read on this ROCCAT team. They look brilliant at times and absolutely horrible at times and it's not because they're particularly risky either they just play excellently one match and horribly in another. What's insane about Europe this split is that third and last place are only separated by three wins. Fnatic and G2 appear to be the cream of the crop and they'll both finish with 11+ win records in my estimation, but the rest is a total crapshoot. Vitality faltering, Misfits heating up, Splyce SOMEHOW 6-6 and both the bottom tier teams in UOL and H2K starting to find themselves all adds up to make this really interesting. (also I hate best of ones...)

Anyway I'm going with Giants here mostly because I think Ruin and Djoko have a good chance to take over this game especially with side preference but really "good ROCCAT" could just show up and rofl stomp so who knows. I like Giants for a unit. I'm going to avoid props for this game because these two teams have had really inconsistent efforts in total match time and kills with wide ranges for both.


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Moneyline: Schalke 04  -114 (2 units)

For the conductor of the "Team Vitality is overrated" hype train I feel awfully weird about this game. This feels like a get right situation after two weeks of straight up flailing and Vitality have to face Fnatic on Saturday so perhaps they're up for this game but I'm still not quitting on this Schalke team. They've had two losses strictly on baron throws and that's an easy enough problem to fix that I think their superior players can come out on top here plus Nukeduck and Pride can keep Jiizuke down especially with side choice. Another aspect to consider is the top lane meta shifting towards Vizicsacsi's specialty picks like Kennen, Sion, Camille, and the sneaky Camille counter of POPPY who just might see some play somewhere this week. I may actually convince myself to go heavier on this tomorrow morning but for now we'll keep this at 2 units.

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Moneyline: G2 eSports -263 (4 units)

Prop: UNDER 18.5 Total Kills @ -116  (1 unit)

Prop: UNDER 37:00 @ -130 (1 unit)

G2 are one of the two truly elite teams in Europe and they've been absolutely bonkers in the first half of games if you look at both the games themselves and the differential metrics. Splyce have one speed and that's slow. They play to scale even when the meta doesn't favor it. I'm going heavy on G2 for a handful of reasons.


  • G2: 1914 GPM, 2159 DPM, +1141 GD @ 15 minutes and all of this is with only a 50% first blood rate meaning they're organically outfarming by substantial amounts.
  • Splyce: 1760 GPM, 1725 DPM, -959 GD @ 15 minutes and they have a 58% first blood rate meaning they're actually getting crushed really bad in the games they lose or not actually assembling any value from the first blood gold/tempo.
  • A lot of the metrics will tell you that this Splyce team has been extremely lucky and are due for some regression.
  • Weirdly, Splyce were a team I liked going into the season so I definitely think they could just improve a lot as we approach playoffs but they've just shown little to no adaptation to the meta game to me until last week meaning that it's still fresh for them. G2 have been rolling everyone regardless of the metagame.  
  • G2 have the best top laner in the league and it's not particularly close (Ruin has been excellent but he pales in comparison. Wunder has quietly been having an MVP caliber season. An 8.6 KDA for a top laner is bananas, he has +11.8 CSD@15 and all of this with only 22% of his teams gold (a low number) and he's done all of this with the least jungle help of any top laner in the league at 3.3% jungle proximity.
  • G2 have the best mid laner and likely the best player in Europe in Perkz.
  • G2 have side selection.

Stylistically this matchup is just a nightmare for Splyce and while there's a chance G2 do some "experimenting" in weeks 7-9 I really doubt we'll see as much of that in a region that's so close top to bottom. G2 should roll this with surgical precision especially with side choice for a counter.


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Moneyline: Fnatic -175 (3 units)

Prop: UNDER 36:00 @ -111 (1 unit)

I think people will look at Misfits absolute demolition of Team Vitality and think "oh man they just crushed the 3rd place team!" but the reality of the situation is that Vitality have been an absolute dumpster fire recently. Misfits are a good team, as a matter of fact I think I'd say at this moment in time they're probably the third best because I think they're a cut better than the rest of the pack but they're also not quite as good as G2 and Fnatic. I'm going moderately heavy on Fnatic here for the following reasons:

  • Fnatic: 1905 GPM, 1943 DPM, +696 GD @ 15 minutes, 67% first blood 
  • Misfits: 1851 GPM, 1903 DPM, +317 GD @ 15 minutes, 75% first blood
  • Fnatic get side choice which matters slightly but in this matchup could matter a lot more. With a very volatile 8.4 patch with new priority picks and pace to the game, side selection could be key. Misfits are also 1-4 on red side this season.
  • Misfits get first blood slightly more often than Fnatic but are able to accomplish less with it than Fnatic are.
  • Caps is substantially better than Sencux who has been among the worst mid laners in the league statistically. Caps has dealt 704 damage per minute with only 313.8 EGPM for an otherworldly 2.24 damage per gold per minute. This is an elite number similar to what world class, superstars like Faker, Rookie, and BDD put up. Sencux has the lowest DPM amongst all EU mids, 243 less per minute than Caps. He has a respectable 1.77 damage per gold per minute but he has arguably been the worst mid laner that is still starting in the EU LCS this split. Now I do think he's a better player than that but Caps is going to roll this matchup.
  • The last match between these two was a 64 minute slugfest that Fnatic lost in heartbreaking fashion to Gangplank + Kogmaw + Zoe late game. They had control of the game and just couldn't close but that was at a time when Gangplank wasn't permabanned and the game itself was significantly slower (first week of patch 8.2 full stopwatch meta). Fnatic aren't going to let that happen again and will most certainly have some extra motivation to take this game in their fight to maintain their one game lead on first place.
I'm anticipating Patch 8.4 to unlock a lot of new mid and jungle picks that are much more geared toward early game and snowballing. Some of these picks have already popped up such as Syndra, Ekko, and Twisted Fate while others such as Leblanc (she's seen a 8 games in the top 5 leagues), Ahri, Talon, and Xerath are due for appearances. I think this helps teams with superior mid lane talent and with how Caps has been playing and side selection I feel Fnatic can set up an advantageous situation and close the game out.


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