April 16th Recap:
LPL: 13 - 4 (+2.301 units)
LCK: 6 - 2 (+2.035 units)
Parlays: 1 - 2 (-1.0 units)
Live: 0 - 1 (-0.5 units)
Total: 20 - 9 (+2.836 units)
BiliBili / V5 (Net: +1.105)
FunPlus / LGD (Net: + 2.996)
eStar / TOP (Net: -1.8)
Hanwha / Griffin (Net: +2.495)
DragonX / APK (Net: -0.96)
(Live was -0.5)
DragonX losing that second game to APK cost us a real whale of a day but that was a risk I knew I was stepping into.
TOP and eStar was a much higher level series than the final scoreboards would tell you. eStar tried a slower, scaling based approach to things which was a bit of a weird look but most of this series was just big outplays one way or the other and TOP had more of them. Two excellent teams duking out. Could see this one again in playoffs it certainly had that feel.
Other matches mostly went as expected. FPX look like The Crush Your Dreams Tour is in full effect for all the people they're going to eliminate decisively from playoffs, BiliBili whooped on V5, and Griffin caught Hanwha with their pants down with two different lineups.
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LPL (China)
Week 7 - Day 5
Trends:
Team WE are 3-2 as favorites, 2-3 ATS
Team WE are 0-2, 0-2 ATS in their past two appearances as favorites
(vs LGD, BiliBili)
LNG are 1-7 as underdogs, 3-5 ATS
LNG are 0-4, 0-4 ATS in their past four appearances as underdogs
(vs RNG, EDG, FPX, JDG)
Almost all of the LPL teams fit into three tiers of two kinds of teams.
There are what the broadcast has dubbed "power of friendship teams" which are ones that are about being proactive, skirmishing, and sacrificing the individual for the greater good or to help. A tier 1 version of this is FunPlus/eStar, a tier 2 is Team WE, and a tier 3 is Rogue Warriors.
Then there are the "lane kingdom" teams which are ones that prefer to utilize their individual prowess to gain advantages through laning, slowing the game down, and acruing resources that way before fighting. Examples are Invictus (tier 1), OMG (tier 2), and LNG (tier 3).
This would typically be a spot that I'd love to fade Team WE but this is a stylistic mismatch AND LNG are starting prospect top laner Chenlun17 again. Unless the individual players are vastly superior, and I mean many orders of magnitude better, the "power of friendship" is just the way to go in modern LOL. Team WE are exactly the kind of team LNG hate playing against. We just saw Team WE get a game off of arguably the best "lane kingdom" team in the league in Invictus and LNG are two tiers worse in that category AND aren't playing one of their stronger players in Flandre.
I think WE are going to smash this especially given that they need as many wins as they can get if they want to set themselves up for the win and in on Monday against OMG for the final playoff spot. Don't put too much weight on this narrative but it's a nice added bonus.
Team WE have the highest AMOV in the LPL at 13.73 and they're 2nd in kills per win (KPW) only to eStar. Their trending numbers in both categories are even more ridiculous. LNG have one of the highest margins of defeat in the LPL. 7 of their last 9 losses were by double digits.
This is a high variance total. Team WE have been one of the bloodier winners and losers overall this season but LNG have been the Griffin of the LPL in that they've kind of just rolled over an died which makes sense given their desire to lane forever and hope to scale without doing a lot of proactive stuff on the map.
LNG have faced FPX, RNG, and EDG in their last three series, a difficult schedule, but they're also now using a sub and look more or less defeated/have quit. FPX and EDG play similarly to how Team WE does but better and they were an extremely low 24.0 trending combined kills+deaths per minute and 6.83 kills per loss. People have loved WE for DFS and for the most part they've delivered. Projections have this total between 24.94 and 30.0 which is a big range but WE have had some big win totals and ahve played against the particularly blood eStar and IG in two of their past three that's skewing the numbers. I like the under here.
Spread: Team WE -1.5 maps @ -112 (1.68 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ -103 (0.515 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ -104 (0.52 units)
----
LNG eSports +299 (+1.5 @ -123)
vs
Team WE -459 (-1.5 @ -123)
Lineups:
LNG: Chenlun17, Xx, Maple, Light, Duan
WE: Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing
vs
Team WE -459 (-1.5 @ -123)
Lineups:
LNG: Chenlun17, Xx, Maple, Light, Duan
WE: Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing
Trends:
Team WE are 3-2 as favorites, 2-3 ATS
Team WE are 0-2, 0-2 ATS in their past two appearances as favorites
(vs LGD, BiliBili)
LNG are 1-7 as underdogs, 3-5 ATS
LNG are 0-4, 0-4 ATS in their past four appearances as underdogs
(vs RNG, EDG, FPX, JDG)
Almost all of the LPL teams fit into three tiers of two kinds of teams.
There are what the broadcast has dubbed "power of friendship teams" which are ones that are about being proactive, skirmishing, and sacrificing the individual for the greater good or to help. A tier 1 version of this is FunPlus/eStar, a tier 2 is Team WE, and a tier 3 is Rogue Warriors.
Then there are the "lane kingdom" teams which are ones that prefer to utilize their individual prowess to gain advantages through laning, slowing the game down, and acruing resources that way before fighting. Examples are Invictus (tier 1), OMG (tier 2), and LNG (tier 3).
This would typically be a spot that I'd love to fade Team WE but this is a stylistic mismatch AND LNG are starting prospect top laner Chenlun17 again. Unless the individual players are vastly superior, and I mean many orders of magnitude better, the "power of friendship" is just the way to go in modern LOL. Team WE are exactly the kind of team LNG hate playing against. We just saw Team WE get a game off of arguably the best "lane kingdom" team in the league in Invictus and LNG are two tiers worse in that category AND aren't playing one of their stronger players in Flandre.
I think WE are going to smash this especially given that they need as many wins as they can get if they want to set themselves up for the win and in on Monday against OMG for the final playoff spot. Don't put too much weight on this narrative but it's a nice added bonus.
Team WE have the highest AMOV in the LPL at 13.73 and they're 2nd in kills per win (KPW) only to eStar. Their trending numbers in both categories are even more ridiculous. LNG have one of the highest margins of defeat in the LPL. 7 of their last 9 losses were by double digits.
This is a high variance total. Team WE have been one of the bloodier winners and losers overall this season but LNG have been the Griffin of the LPL in that they've kind of just rolled over an died which makes sense given their desire to lane forever and hope to scale without doing a lot of proactive stuff on the map.
LNG have faced FPX, RNG, and EDG in their last three series, a difficult schedule, but they're also now using a sub and look more or less defeated/have quit. FPX and EDG play similarly to how Team WE does but better and they were an extremely low 24.0 trending combined kills+deaths per minute and 6.83 kills per loss. People have loved WE for DFS and for the most part they've delivered. Projections have this total between 24.94 and 30.0 which is a big range but WE have had some big win totals and ahve played against the particularly blood eStar and IG in two of their past three that's skewing the numbers. I like the under here.
Spread: Team WE -1.5 maps @ -112 (1.68 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ -103 (0.515 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ -104 (0.52 units)
----
Dominus +345 (+1.5 @ +108)
vs
JD Gaming -654 (-1.5 @ -154)
Lineups:
DMO: Natural, Xiaopeng, Xiye, GALA, Mark
JDG: Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, LokeN, LvMao
Trends:
JDG are 8-3 as favorites, 6-5 ATS
JDG are 3-0, 2-1 ATS in their past three appearances as favorites
JDG are 4-0, 4-0 ATS in their past four matches since Zoom returned to the lineup
Dominus are 4-9 as underdogs, 6-7 ATS
Dominus are 3-2, 4-1 ATS in their past five appearances as underdogs
(vs RNG, Suning, BiliBili, EDG, LNG)
I know people like this new look Dominus, I'm excited for them too but JDG look like one of the best teams on the planet right now and the fact that we're getting a number this good against a predictable Dominus is excellent. We also have the added bonus that Zoom is one of the best weakside top laners in the world to neutralize Natural.
By design, Dominus are going to want to play lower kill games with their new split push "play through top lane" identity. There's als othe chance that JDG just completely run them over.
My projections have this total at ~26.1 based on trending numbers which is what I'm going to stick with more heavily since these two teams have made big changes recently. I also thin that number is inflated by V5, IG and eStar being involved in half the games. I like the under a bit here for half stake.
For those same stylistic reasons I'm avoiding kill spreads here although I'd lean to the Dominus + ones.
Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ -145 (2.9 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ -118 (0.295 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ -118 (0.295 units)
----
Invictus Gaming -249 (-1.5 @ +123)
vs
EDward Gaming +175 (+1.5 @ -182)
Lineups:
IG: TheShy, Leyan, Rookie, Puff, Southwind
EDG: Jinoo, Jiejie, Scout, Hope, Meiko
Trends:
Invicuts are 11-2 as favorites, 7-6 ATS
Invictus are 4-1, 1-4 ATS in their past five appearances as favorites
(vs WE, BiliBili, JDG, RNG, V5)
EDG are 2-3 as underdogs, 5-0 ATS
(vs FPX, RNG, JDG, eSTar, TOP)
This is a classic rivalry between two of the older organizations in Chinese LOL. IG are playing to retain the #1 seed, EDG to potentially move up into a quarterfinal bye. EDG have looked like the team many projected them to be before the season now with the original lineup reassembled which we've discussed ad nauseum. IG have been a bit shaky relative to expectations of late but still one of the top teams.
I like EDG to take this series. They've been really good against the other elite teams this season with a perfect ATS record and most of those games were with the emergency subs not the A-team. They have the players AND the playstyle to punish IG's new look "lane kingdom" that they seem set on for this season. In all honesty, Rookie has been hard carrying this team and when he doesn't they've lost. TheShy has gone a bit too far off the deep end this season and I think this team's willingness to "assume" they're better has burned them on a few ocassions. They're still an excellent team and deserve to be favored in this spot but not by this much. I also think there's a chance that IG are content to let fate decide and mail this series in or sandbag it.
Could IG turn it on? Absolutely but I think giving them the benefit of the doubt can be dangerous. They do tend to step up their game against the old rivalry teams but I'm not counting on it. Something just isn't sitting quite right with this team this season. I know that sounds odd to say for the #1 team. Still, this is primarily a numbers play. Invictus shouldn't be favored by this much over other good teams that have the players to hang tough with the individual talent they have. Value is on EDG.
I project this kill total to be somewhere between 27.195 - 28.15 kill based on various factors but there is always a high degree of variance with Invictus games. Still, I think this 29.5 total is cooked way too heavily toward the season-long totals and not the trending ones so I'm going to be on the under here.
Spread: EDG +1.5 maps @ -167 (2.505 units)
Moneyline: EDG +180 (1 unit)
Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ +408 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: UNDER 29.5 @ -112 (0.56 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 28.5 @ +105 (0.25 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: UNDER 29.5 @ -114 (0.57 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 28.5 @ +105 (0.25 units)
vs
JD Gaming -654 (-1.5 @ -154)
Lineups:
DMO: Natural, Xiaopeng, Xiye, GALA, Mark
JDG: Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, LokeN, LvMao
Trends:
JDG are 8-3 as favorites, 6-5 ATS
JDG are 3-0, 2-1 ATS in their past three appearances as favorites
JDG are 4-0, 4-0 ATS in their past four matches since Zoom returned to the lineup
Dominus are 4-9 as underdogs, 6-7 ATS
Dominus are 3-2, 4-1 ATS in their past five appearances as underdogs
(vs RNG, Suning, BiliBili, EDG, LNG)
I know people like this new look Dominus, I'm excited for them too but JDG look like one of the best teams on the planet right now and the fact that we're getting a number this good against a predictable Dominus is excellent. We also have the added bonus that Zoom is one of the best weakside top laners in the world to neutralize Natural.
By design, Dominus are going to want to play lower kill games with their new split push "play through top lane" identity. There's als othe chance that JDG just completely run them over.
My projections have this total at ~26.1 based on trending numbers which is what I'm going to stick with more heavily since these two teams have made big changes recently. I also thin that number is inflated by V5, IG and eStar being involved in half the games. I like the under a bit here for half stake.
For those same stylistic reasons I'm avoiding kill spreads here although I'd lean to the Dominus + ones.
Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ -145 (2.9 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ -118 (0.295 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ -118 (0.295 units)
----
Invictus Gaming -249 (-1.5 @ +123)
vs
EDward Gaming +175 (+1.5 @ -182)
Lineups:
IG: TheShy, Leyan, Rookie, Puff, Southwind
EDG: Jinoo, Jiejie, Scout, Hope, Meiko
Trends:
Invicuts are 11-2 as favorites, 7-6 ATS
Invictus are 4-1, 1-4 ATS in their past five appearances as favorites
(vs WE, BiliBili, JDG, RNG, V5)
EDG are 2-3 as underdogs, 5-0 ATS
(vs FPX, RNG, JDG, eSTar, TOP)
This is a classic rivalry between two of the older organizations in Chinese LOL. IG are playing to retain the #1 seed, EDG to potentially move up into a quarterfinal bye. EDG have looked like the team many projected them to be before the season now with the original lineup reassembled which we've discussed ad nauseum. IG have been a bit shaky relative to expectations of late but still one of the top teams.
I like EDG to take this series. They've been really good against the other elite teams this season with a perfect ATS record and most of those games were with the emergency subs not the A-team. They have the players AND the playstyle to punish IG's new look "lane kingdom" that they seem set on for this season. In all honesty, Rookie has been hard carrying this team and when he doesn't they've lost. TheShy has gone a bit too far off the deep end this season and I think this team's willingness to "assume" they're better has burned them on a few ocassions. They're still an excellent team and deserve to be favored in this spot but not by this much. I also think there's a chance that IG are content to let fate decide and mail this series in or sandbag it.
Could IG turn it on? Absolutely but I think giving them the benefit of the doubt can be dangerous. They do tend to step up their game against the old rivalry teams but I'm not counting on it. Something just isn't sitting quite right with this team this season. I know that sounds odd to say for the #1 team. Still, this is primarily a numbers play. Invictus shouldn't be favored by this much over other good teams that have the players to hang tough with the individual talent they have. Value is on EDG.
I project this kill total to be somewhere between 27.195 - 28.15 kill based on various factors but there is always a high degree of variance with Invictus games. Still, I think this 29.5 total is cooked way too heavily toward the season-long totals and not the trending ones so I'm going to be on the under here.
Spread: EDG +1.5 maps @ -167 (2.505 units)
Moneyline: EDG +180 (1 unit)
Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ +408 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Total: UNDER 29.5 @ -112 (0.56 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 28.5 @ +105 (0.25 units)
Map 2:
Kill Total: UNDER 29.5 @ -114 (0.57 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 28.5 @ +105 (0.25 units)
------------------------
Other Leagues
none yet
--------------------
Parlays:
G2 + JDG
Parlay (2): JDG ML + G2 ML (Saturday) @ -271 (2.71 units)
Parlay (2): JDG -1.5 maps + G2 ML (Saturday) @ -106 (0.53 units)
Parlay (2): JDG ML + G2 -1.5 maps (Saturday) @ -148 (0.74 units)
Parlay (2): JDG -1.5 maps + G2 -1.5 maps (Saturday) @ +138 (0.5 units)
G2 + WE
Parlay (2): Team WE ML + G2 ML (Saturday) @ -263 (2.63 units)
Parlay (2): Team WE ML + G2 -1.5 maps (Saturday) @ -145 (0.775 units)
Parlay (2): Team WE -1.5 maps + G2 ML (Saturday) @ +102 (0.5 units)
Parlay (2): Team WE -1.5 maps + G2 -1.5 maps @ +148 (0.5 units)
G2 + EDG
Parlay (2): EDG +1.5 maps + G2 ML (Saturday) @ -119 (1.19 units)
Parlay (2): EDG +1.5 maps + G2 -1.5 maps (Saturday) @ +126 (0.5 units)
Total Units Wagers: 10.575
Potental Net Winnings: +6.538 units
I'm going to be attacking the Saturday G2 series through parlays this week. If there was such a thing as a "Whale Play of the Year" it's G2 over MAD Lions on Saturday.
Obviously if this kind of risk isn't for you then abstain or cut these wagers to a more digestible amount but I'm full disclosure here and I'll be heavy duty, back up the Brinks truck on and I'm going to do it through parlays instead of just straight up. This also positions well for some hedges if MAD somehow pull a miracle win off that I can pile on live.
G2 + JDG
Parlay (2): JDG ML + G2 ML (Saturday) @ -271 (2.71 units)
Parlay (2): JDG -1.5 maps + G2 ML (Saturday) @ -106 (0.53 units)
Parlay (2): JDG ML + G2 -1.5 maps (Saturday) @ -148 (0.74 units)
Parlay (2): JDG -1.5 maps + G2 -1.5 maps (Saturday) @ +138 (0.5 units)
G2 + WE
Parlay (2): Team WE ML + G2 ML (Saturday) @ -263 (2.63 units)
Parlay (2): Team WE ML + G2 -1.5 maps (Saturday) @ -145 (0.775 units)
Parlay (2): Team WE -1.5 maps + G2 ML (Saturday) @ +102 (0.5 units)
Parlay (2): Team WE -1.5 maps + G2 -1.5 maps @ +148 (0.5 units)
G2 + EDG
Parlay (2): EDG +1.5 maps + G2 ML (Saturday) @ -119 (1.19 units)
Parlay (2): EDG +1.5 maps + G2 -1.5 maps (Saturday) @ +126 (0.5 units)
Total Units Wagers: 10.575
Potental Net Winnings: +6.538 units
I'm going to be attacking the Saturday G2 series through parlays this week. If there was such a thing as a "Whale Play of the Year" it's G2 over MAD Lions on Saturday.
Obviously if this kind of risk isn't for you then abstain or cut these wagers to a more digestible amount but I'm full disclosure here and I'll be heavy duty, back up the Brinks truck on and I'm going to do it through parlays instead of just straight up. This also positions well for some hedges if MAD somehow pull a miracle win off that I can pile on live.
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