April 12th Recap:
LPL: 8 - 5 (+4.4095 units)
Total: +4.4095 units
eStar/OMG (Net: +0.65)
RNG / LNG (Net: +2.0595)
TOP / V5 (Net: +1.7)
Modest bounce back day after NA brutalized me yesterday with a competitive but awful series in terms of quality of League of Legends being played.
Today is going to be a high volume day. For whatever reason the numbers just panned out this way on this slate which is kind of funny given that yesterday was the FIRST DAY ALL SPLIT that chalk fully prevailed. All of the favorites won and covered for the first time! Up until today there were three matches almost every day, 112 total matches played without the favorites winning and covering all on the same day. Go home Spring, you're drunk!
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LPL (China)
Week 7 - Day 2
Trends:
JDG are 7-3 as favorites, 5-5 ATS
JDG have lost outright in 3 of their past 5 appearances as favorites (RNG, TOP, EDG)
JDG have failed to cover the spread in their past 5 appearances as favorites
Rogue Warriors are 5-5 as underdogs, 7-3 ATS
Rogue have won 3 of their past 5 appearances as underdogs
Rogue Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their past 5 appearances as underdogs
The Rogue Warriors have been the LPL's feisty underdog in Spring 2020 with outright upsets over RNG, Vici, and EDG as some highlights. Since the WeiYan match fixing incident they are 3-1 outright as dogs and 4-0 ATS. Other than eStars perfect 4-0, 4-0 ATS record, which we now know as a mispricing (we were almost all wrong besides the truthers out there...) Rogue Warriors have been the best underdog in the LPL. Their in-your-face, no-fear style of play is served them well. They're also only one match win behind OMG for the #8 playoff spot so you can trust they'll be showing up to play in this spot.
JDG are on a bit of a heater but if you would have told me this before the season started I wouldn't have been surprised as I had this team as my #2 and one of only two elite S+ tier teams going into the year. With 2-0 wins over Invictus and eStar in their last two matches and Zoom back in the lineup, it's looking like JDG are poised to make a run at a title.
JDG don't shy away from skirmishes, it's where they thrive. Typically I like taking RW as an underdog against teams that will happily join them in their game as it introduces a lot of variance to the game but with a few days off for JDG and their overall quality in terms of economic metrics and individual players I think JDG can buck the recent trend and take care of this is decisive fashion.
Other than the spread, we'll be taking JDG kill spreads.
JDG have a slightly above average margin of victory for the season at 10.9 (10.16 trending past six) while RW have the third largest margin of defeat this season at 11.82 (13.5 trending past six). Rogue Warriors are such a prototypical LPL team. When they get behind they continuously throw themselves into fights to try to battle their way out of a corner. It's not a bad way to play a lot of the time but it does result in big losses when they do lose. As a matter of fact, in Rogue Warriors 17 losses this season only 5 have been by less than double digits and only 2 by less than 6. This along with a few other factors qualifies for our volume kill spread approach.
JDG have the highest first blood rate in the LPL at 63.3% while Rogue Warriors rank 11th at 40.6%. It's obviously not a direct comparison of the numbers but the implied odds we're getting on the JDG first blood number are a shade over 58%. I'll take JDG first blood on maps one and two as well.
Combined these two teams provide a 27.265 combined kills+deaths per game average. If we take a slightly deeper dive, since Zoom has returned to JDG, their number alone is 26.16 but they've also faced Invictus and eStar, two of the bloodiest teams on the planet. Their other match was against the low ckpm team LNG where there were a combined 37 kills+deaths in two games. Rogue Warriors are more along the lines of eStar and Invictus. If we look at those games the avg kills+deaths per games for JDG games has been 29.75. Weighting for slightly less and combining JDG's avg kill per win since Zoom's return at 18.16 as well as RW's kills per loss of just 6.83 I'd handicap this total around 24.5. The thing is, you can expect RW to be throwing everything at this matchup with their playoff hopes on the line. The kill total is set at 26.5 for this match. Baking in all of the factors discussed I still think we're looking at an under.
No time plays in this one.
Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ -122 (1.22 units)
Map 1:
Prop: JDG first blood @ -141 (1.41 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -118 (0.59 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ +102 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ +123 (0.15 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 23.5 @ +148 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: JDG -5.5 kills @ -182 (0.455 units)
Kill Spread: JDG -6.5 kills @ -152 (0.304 units)
Kill Spread: JDG -7.5 kills @ -127 (0.127 units)
Kill Spread: JDG -8.5 kills @ +100 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: JDG -9.5 kills @ +128 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: JDG -10.5 kills @ +162 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Prop: JDG first blood @ -141 (1.41 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -127 (0.635 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ -104 (0.26 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ +116 (0.15 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 23.5 @ +140 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: JDG -5.5 kills @ -196 (0.49 units)
Kill Spread: JDG -6.5 kills @ -164 (0.328 units)
Kill Spread: JDG -7.5 kills @ -135 (0.135 units)
Kill Spread: JDG -8.5 kills @ -109 (0.109 units)
Kill Spread: JDG -9.5 kills @ +120 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: JDG -10.5 kills @ +153 (0.1 units)
(5Dimes)
----
JD Gaming -535 (-1.5 @ -141)
vs
Rogue Warriors +329 (+1.5 @ -102)
Lineups:
JDG: Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, Loken, LvMao
RW: Holder, Haro, Wuming, ZWuji, Ley
vs
Rogue Warriors +329 (+1.5 @ -102)
Lineups:
JDG: Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, Loken, LvMao
RW: Holder, Haro, Wuming, ZWuji, Ley
Trends:
JDG are 7-3 as favorites, 5-5 ATS
JDG have lost outright in 3 of their past 5 appearances as favorites (RNG, TOP, EDG)
JDG have failed to cover the spread in their past 5 appearances as favorites
Rogue Warriors are 5-5 as underdogs, 7-3 ATS
Rogue have won 3 of their past 5 appearances as underdogs
Rogue Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their past 5 appearances as underdogs
The Rogue Warriors have been the LPL's feisty underdog in Spring 2020 with outright upsets over RNG, Vici, and EDG as some highlights. Since the WeiYan match fixing incident they are 3-1 outright as dogs and 4-0 ATS. Other than eStars perfect 4-0, 4-0 ATS record, which we now know as a mispricing (we were almost all wrong besides the truthers out there...) Rogue Warriors have been the best underdog in the LPL. Their in-your-face, no-fear style of play is served them well. They're also only one match win behind OMG for the #8 playoff spot so you can trust they'll be showing up to play in this spot.
JDG are on a bit of a heater but if you would have told me this before the season started I wouldn't have been surprised as I had this team as my #2 and one of only two elite S+ tier teams going into the year. With 2-0 wins over Invictus and eStar in their last two matches and Zoom back in the lineup, it's looking like JDG are poised to make a run at a title.
JDG don't shy away from skirmishes, it's where they thrive. Typically I like taking RW as an underdog against teams that will happily join them in their game as it introduces a lot of variance to the game but with a few days off for JDG and their overall quality in terms of economic metrics and individual players I think JDG can buck the recent trend and take care of this is decisive fashion.
Other than the spread, we'll be taking JDG kill spreads.
JDG have a slightly above average margin of victory for the season at 10.9 (10.16 trending past six) while RW have the third largest margin of defeat this season at 11.82 (13.5 trending past six). Rogue Warriors are such a prototypical LPL team. When they get behind they continuously throw themselves into fights to try to battle their way out of a corner. It's not a bad way to play a lot of the time but it does result in big losses when they do lose. As a matter of fact, in Rogue Warriors 17 losses this season only 5 have been by less than double digits and only 2 by less than 6. This along with a few other factors qualifies for our volume kill spread approach.
JDG have the highest first blood rate in the LPL at 63.3% while Rogue Warriors rank 11th at 40.6%. It's obviously not a direct comparison of the numbers but the implied odds we're getting on the JDG first blood number are a shade over 58%. I'll take JDG first blood on maps one and two as well.
Combined these two teams provide a 27.265 combined kills+deaths per game average. If we take a slightly deeper dive, since Zoom has returned to JDG, their number alone is 26.16 but they've also faced Invictus and eStar, two of the bloodiest teams on the planet. Their other match was against the low ckpm team LNG where there were a combined 37 kills+deaths in two games. Rogue Warriors are more along the lines of eStar and Invictus. If we look at those games the avg kills+deaths per games for JDG games has been 29.75. Weighting for slightly less and combining JDG's avg kill per win since Zoom's return at 18.16 as well as RW's kills per loss of just 6.83 I'd handicap this total around 24.5. The thing is, you can expect RW to be throwing everything at this matchup with their playoff hopes on the line. The kill total is set at 26.5 for this match. Baking in all of the factors discussed I still think we're looking at an under.
No time plays in this one.
Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ -122 (1.22 units)
Map 1:
Prop: JDG first blood @ -141 (1.41 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -118 (0.59 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ +102 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ +123 (0.15 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 23.5 @ +148 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: JDG -5.5 kills @ -182 (0.455 units)
Kill Spread: JDG -6.5 kills @ -152 (0.304 units)
Kill Spread: JDG -7.5 kills @ -127 (0.127 units)
Kill Spread: JDG -8.5 kills @ +100 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: JDG -9.5 kills @ +128 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: JDG -10.5 kills @ +162 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Prop: JDG first blood @ -141 (1.41 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -127 (0.635 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ -104 (0.26 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ +116 (0.15 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 23.5 @ +140 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: JDG -5.5 kills @ -196 (0.49 units)
Kill Spread: JDG -6.5 kills @ -164 (0.328 units)
Kill Spread: JDG -7.5 kills @ -135 (0.135 units)
Kill Spread: JDG -8.5 kills @ -109 (0.109 units)
Kill Spread: JDG -9.5 kills @ +120 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: JDG -10.5 kills @ +153 (0.1 units)
(5Dimes)
----
Suning Gaming +160 (+1.5 @ -207)
vs
Vici Gaming -234 (-1.5 @ +147)
Lineups:
SN: Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt
VG: Cube, Aix, Forge, iBoy, Hang
Trends:
Vici are 3-3 as favorites, 1-5 ATS
Vici have lost outright in their past 2 appearances as favorites
Vici have failed to cover the spread in their past 3 appearances as favorites
Suning are 3-5 as underdogs, 5-3 ATS
Suning have lost their past 4 appearances as underdogs
Suning have covered in 2 of their past 4 appearances as underdogs
Vici have to win these next two to have a real shot at making playoffs while Suning would require a small miracle as well as two back-to-back wins to close the season to make playoffs.
This is a challenging one because I still think Vici have gaping flaws on tape in a lot of scenarios but they rarely come up as things that cause losses. I also still think Forge can be exposed by certain teams but not by others. Suning are also still not as bad as their record indicates. Other than Victory Five, they've faced only playoff teams in six of their past seven. Tough schedule...
Suning actually have similar economy metrics and Huanfeng has quietly been the highest damage per minute player in the four major regions with at least 18 games (to account for Western pros). On a losing team... and Angel has been pretty good too so it's not even like theres a giant percentage share. Of note, Huanfeng has only played two games on Aphelios, generally the highest damage champion that's common this split along with Rumble. He's also play 16 Miss Fortune games which contributes to this but nonetheless it's impressive. Suning are remarkably efficient. Their damage per gold numbers are as good as the elite teams, they just tend to get caught out when things matter.
This is an underdog special. Vici probably win this series but they don't deserve to be favored by this much. They are a better macro team which is what Suning have struggled with but Vici are still a very flawed and inconsistent team. Sunnig have also faced an absolutely brutal schedule which I think accounts for a lot. There's a chance they check out for this game knowing they're more or less eliminated but I'd think they want to play spoiler. This is the easiest matchup they've had besides Victory Five since LNG on March 24th.
This kill total is set at an implied 25.0 based on the juice on either side. If you average the combined kills+deaths for these two teams over the season its 26.16. Vici tend to win clean and lose bloody with one of the lowest KPW's and highest KPL's. Generally means they're a competitive team in most games that goes down with a fight. Suning are one of the higher KPW teams in the league and their trending numbers are even higher.
Long story short, I think this number is entirely too low given how these teams tend to win and lose. Even if we assume Vici win this series 2-0 the trending numbers still suggest a total of about 25.16.
Vici are 15th in first tower rate in the LPL taking first tower just 28.9% of the time even though they're 18-20 in game record. Suning are at 42.9% with a 15-20 game record. These numbers have some noise and aren't always indicative of what a draft wants to do but generally it lines up with what these teams want to be doing. Vici tend to prioritize dragons while Suning want to get ahead on the map elsewhere with heralds and towers. Suning have one of the lower dragon rates while Vici's is one of the highest. Because of the odds we're getting we'll take the tower but not the dragon prop.
I'm rather heavy handed on this series but after reviewing a lot of tape and examining this under a microscope I've come to feel quite strongly about Suning in this spot.
Spread: Suning +1.5 maps @ -192 (2.88 units)
Moneyline: Suning +166 (1 unit)
Spread: Suning -1.5 maps @ +441 (0.5 units)
Map 1:
Map ML: SN +130 (0.25 units)
Prop: Suning first tower @ +111 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ -120 (1.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 @ +101 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 26.5 @ +122 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 27.5 @ +146 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 28.5 @ +168 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Map ML: SN +137 (0.25 units)
Prop: Suning first tower @ +111 (0.5 units)
Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ -133 (1.33 units)
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 @ -110 (0.22 units)
Kill Total: OVER 26.5 @ +110 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 27.5 @ +130 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 28.5 @ +151 (0.1 units)
(5Dimes)
----
vs
Vici Gaming -234 (-1.5 @ +147)
Lineups:
SN: Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt
VG: Cube, Aix, Forge, iBoy, Hang
Trends:
Vici are 3-3 as favorites, 1-5 ATS
Vici have lost outright in their past 2 appearances as favorites
Vici have failed to cover the spread in their past 3 appearances as favorites
Suning are 3-5 as underdogs, 5-3 ATS
Suning have lost their past 4 appearances as underdogs
Suning have covered in 2 of their past 4 appearances as underdogs
Vici have to win these next two to have a real shot at making playoffs while Suning would require a small miracle as well as two back-to-back wins to close the season to make playoffs.
This is a challenging one because I still think Vici have gaping flaws on tape in a lot of scenarios but they rarely come up as things that cause losses. I also still think Forge can be exposed by certain teams but not by others. Suning are also still not as bad as their record indicates. Other than Victory Five, they've faced only playoff teams in six of their past seven. Tough schedule...
Suning actually have similar economy metrics and Huanfeng has quietly been the highest damage per minute player in the four major regions with at least 18 games (to account for Western pros). On a losing team... and Angel has been pretty good too so it's not even like theres a giant percentage share. Of note, Huanfeng has only played two games on Aphelios, generally the highest damage champion that's common this split along with Rumble. He's also play 16 Miss Fortune games which contributes to this but nonetheless it's impressive. Suning are remarkably efficient. Their damage per gold numbers are as good as the elite teams, they just tend to get caught out when things matter.
This is an underdog special. Vici probably win this series but they don't deserve to be favored by this much. They are a better macro team which is what Suning have struggled with but Vici are still a very flawed and inconsistent team. Sunnig have also faced an absolutely brutal schedule which I think accounts for a lot. There's a chance they check out for this game knowing they're more or less eliminated but I'd think they want to play spoiler. This is the easiest matchup they've had besides Victory Five since LNG on March 24th.
This kill total is set at an implied 25.0 based on the juice on either side. If you average the combined kills+deaths for these two teams over the season its 26.16. Vici tend to win clean and lose bloody with one of the lowest KPW's and highest KPL's. Generally means they're a competitive team in most games that goes down with a fight. Suning are one of the higher KPW teams in the league and their trending numbers are even higher.
Long story short, I think this number is entirely too low given how these teams tend to win and lose. Even if we assume Vici win this series 2-0 the trending numbers still suggest a total of about 25.16.
Vici are 15th in first tower rate in the LPL taking first tower just 28.9% of the time even though they're 18-20 in game record. Suning are at 42.9% with a 15-20 game record. These numbers have some noise and aren't always indicative of what a draft wants to do but generally it lines up with what these teams want to be doing. Vici tend to prioritize dragons while Suning want to get ahead on the map elsewhere with heralds and towers. Suning have one of the lower dragon rates while Vici's is one of the highest. Because of the odds we're getting we'll take the tower but not the dragon prop.
I'm rather heavy handed on this series but after reviewing a lot of tape and examining this under a microscope I've come to feel quite strongly about Suning in this spot.
Spread: Suning +1.5 maps @ -192 (2.88 units)
Moneyline: Suning +166 (1 unit)
Spread: Suning -1.5 maps @ +441 (0.5 units)
Map 1:
Map ML: SN +130 (0.25 units)
Prop: Suning first tower @ +111 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ -120 (1.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 @ +101 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 26.5 @ +122 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 27.5 @ +146 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 28.5 @ +168 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Map ML: SN +137 (0.25 units)
Prop: Suning first tower @ +111 (0.5 units)
Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ -133 (1.33 units)
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 @ -110 (0.22 units)
Kill Total: OVER 26.5 @ +110 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 27.5 @ +130 (0.2 units)
Kill Total: OVER 28.5 @ +151 (0.1 units)
(5Dimes)
----
BiliBili Gaming -102 (+1.5 @ -313)
vs
LGD Gaming -141 (-1.5 @ +222)
Lineups:
BLG: Kinge, Meteor, FoFo, Jinjiao, XinMo
LGD: Lies, Peanut, Yuuki, Kramer, Killua
Trends:
LGD have only been favorites one time, a win and cover against V5
BiliBili are 3-5 as underdogs, 7-1 ATS
Bilibili are 6-0 ATS in their past six appearances as underdogs
BiliBili's last and only ATS loss was against JDG on March 18th
This is a wild series because I think both of these teams have been performing significantly better of late. LGD have won four of their past five series. In that span they've back-to-back 2-0'd OMG and RNG, beat Team WE 2-1, and took a game off of EDG. The other win was Victory Five. LGD's early game snowball approach to the game has served them well and as their execution has improved so has their win rate. Peanut is playing out of his mind right now. It's remeniscent of the time when he was one of the best junglers in the world a few years back.
I do, however, have concerns about how much of this recent success has been because LGD have gotten their hands on Senna in six straight games to abuse the Senna + tank bottom lane synergy. Kramer wasn't performing poorly on traditional ADCs but the strategy is completely broken and perfect for creating an early game snowball as it bullies bottom lane hard.
BiliBili haven't been too shabby themselves. If not for a severe overconfidence punt against Invictus in game two, BiliBili were on their way to 2-0ing IG and would have had back-to-back 2-0's against IG and TOP. They also took a game against EDG in a competitive series and are one of the few teams to 2-0 Rogue Warriors recently. BiliBili are finally looking a bit more like what we expected them to look like before the season. Capable of playing a more controlled, Korean style of play or the execution based, up-tempo stylings that are built around Meteor on snowballing junglers like Olaf and Elise, this team just needs to fix their transitional game.
This is another underdog special.
LGD have only been favorites once this season for a reason. BiliBili are also a tremendous 7-1 ATS this season including wins in their past six showings as the dog. I like what LGD are doing but Meteor is one of the few junglers in the league that I think can keep Peanut down right now. As long as BiliBili come into this game with a "fight fire with fire" mentality like they did against Invictus I think they'll come out on top.
Kill totals on this one are wild. LGD have been feast or famine in losses with double digit kill per losses in their past three but 3, 1, and 4 before that putting their trending number to 6.66 ( \m/ ). Combined kills+deaths for these teams over the season is 26.55. Trending over past 3 series for both teams averaged together is 29.17 although it should be noted that both of these teams have played two extremely bloody matches and one very clean series in their past three.
With those numbers in mind and projecting a fairly evenly matched series I'd expect this to go well over the total of 24.5 regardless of who wins. In an LGD win based on combined trending and season long numbers the total should be ~ 26.4. Higher if you weigh more heavily toward trending numbers. In a BLG win we're looking at ~ 25.1 but with a much larger range of outcomes with about 19 on the low end. Slightly higher risk proposition on these kills but I'd expect both of these teams to play with an uptempo, skirmish heavy game plan given how BLG approached their series against IG and knowing how LGD have wanted to play this season.
The way these two teams have chosen to play the game more often recently is not indicative of their season long numbers in average game time which are both full of outliers that have pushed that number up. I absolutely love the under even with the juice in this spot.
Given the map moneylines are lower than the spread I'm going to opt for BiliBili +0.5 kills instead of the map moneylines.
Spread: BiliBili +1.5 maps @ -294 (2.94 units)
Moneyline: BiliBili +104 (1 unit)
Spread: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ +302 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Spread: BiliBili -0.5 kills @ +122 (0.25 units)
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -137 (0.685 units)
Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ -106 (1.06 units)
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 @ +109 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: OVER 26.5 @ +128 (0.15 units)
Kill Total: OVER 27.6 @ +149 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: BiliBili -0.5 kills @ +126 (0.25 units)
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -137 (0.685 units)
Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ +103 (1 unit)
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 @ +118 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: OVER 26.5 @ +140 (0.15 units)
Kill Total: OVER 27.5 @ +163 (0.1 units)
vs
LGD Gaming -141 (-1.5 @ +222)
Lineups:
BLG: Kinge, Meteor, FoFo, Jinjiao, XinMo
LGD: Lies, Peanut, Yuuki, Kramer, Killua
Trends:
LGD have only been favorites one time, a win and cover against V5
BiliBili are 3-5 as underdogs, 7-1 ATS
Bilibili are 6-0 ATS in their past six appearances as underdogs
BiliBili's last and only ATS loss was against JDG on March 18th
This is a wild series because I think both of these teams have been performing significantly better of late. LGD have won four of their past five series. In that span they've back-to-back 2-0'd OMG and RNG, beat Team WE 2-1, and took a game off of EDG. The other win was Victory Five. LGD's early game snowball approach to the game has served them well and as their execution has improved so has their win rate. Peanut is playing out of his mind right now. It's remeniscent of the time when he was one of the best junglers in the world a few years back.
I do, however, have concerns about how much of this recent success has been because LGD have gotten their hands on Senna in six straight games to abuse the Senna + tank bottom lane synergy. Kramer wasn't performing poorly on traditional ADCs but the strategy is completely broken and perfect for creating an early game snowball as it bullies bottom lane hard.
BiliBili haven't been too shabby themselves. If not for a severe overconfidence punt against Invictus in game two, BiliBili were on their way to 2-0ing IG and would have had back-to-back 2-0's against IG and TOP. They also took a game against EDG in a competitive series and are one of the few teams to 2-0 Rogue Warriors recently. BiliBili are finally looking a bit more like what we expected them to look like before the season. Capable of playing a more controlled, Korean style of play or the execution based, up-tempo stylings that are built around Meteor on snowballing junglers like Olaf and Elise, this team just needs to fix their transitional game.
This is another underdog special.
LGD have only been favorites once this season for a reason. BiliBili are also a tremendous 7-1 ATS this season including wins in their past six showings as the dog. I like what LGD are doing but Meteor is one of the few junglers in the league that I think can keep Peanut down right now. As long as BiliBili come into this game with a "fight fire with fire" mentality like they did against Invictus I think they'll come out on top.
Kill totals on this one are wild. LGD have been feast or famine in losses with double digit kill per losses in their past three but 3, 1, and 4 before that putting their trending number to 6.66 ( \m/ ). Combined kills+deaths for these teams over the season is 26.55. Trending over past 3 series for both teams averaged together is 29.17 although it should be noted that both of these teams have played two extremely bloody matches and one very clean series in their past three.
With those numbers in mind and projecting a fairly evenly matched series I'd expect this to go well over the total of 24.5 regardless of who wins. In an LGD win based on combined trending and season long numbers the total should be ~ 26.4. Higher if you weigh more heavily toward trending numbers. In a BLG win we're looking at ~ 25.1 but with a much larger range of outcomes with about 19 on the low end. Slightly higher risk proposition on these kills but I'd expect both of these teams to play with an uptempo, skirmish heavy game plan given how BLG approached their series against IG and knowing how LGD have wanted to play this season.
The way these two teams have chosen to play the game more often recently is not indicative of their season long numbers in average game time which are both full of outliers that have pushed that number up. I absolutely love the under even with the juice in this spot.
Given the map moneylines are lower than the spread I'm going to opt for BiliBili +0.5 kills instead of the map moneylines.
Spread: BiliBili +1.5 maps @ -294 (2.94 units)
Moneyline: BiliBili +104 (1 unit)
Spread: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ +302 (0.25 units)
Map 1:
Kill Spread: BiliBili -0.5 kills @ +122 (0.25 units)
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -137 (0.685 units)
Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ -106 (1.06 units)
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 @ +109 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: OVER 26.5 @ +128 (0.15 units)
Kill Total: OVER 27.6 @ +149 (0.1 units)
Map 2:
Kill Spread: BiliBili -0.5 kills @ +126 (0.25 units)
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -137 (0.685 units)
Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ +103 (1 unit)
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 @ +118 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: OVER 26.5 @ +140 (0.15 units)
Kill Total: OVER 27.5 @ +163 (0.1 units)
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