So far at MSI including the Play-In's AND the first two days of the main event we're 27-33 in our picks but +3.608 units and that's excluding parlays on which we're a combined +8.3465 units so all told on the tournament we're doing quite well but the past two days we're down around 9 units. The double big loss on PVB/IG over/unders is what's killing our number otherwise it'd be salvageable but we still have plenty of tournament to go.
I'm likely going to be fading a lot of IG numbers the rest of the tournament in wake of the ridiculous overreaction to their admittedly impressive 16 minute win against SKT. This is the same team that nearly lost to PVB so let's not overreact to one game no matter how impressive it is. SKT took a gamble and played outside their comfort zone, something that we've rarely seen Korean teams do, especially SKT. They have a ton of respect for IG. I also don't think this definitively says IG is better. It's one game people. That said, if you want to believe in the "they're tilted" narrative because they're going outside their comfort zone feel free, I can't convince you otherwise but I think it shows maturity and willingness to adjust.
--------------------------
Team Liquid vs SK Telecom
I mentioned it already but I expect a gross overreaction to IG's 16 minute win but I also don't think we should take anything away from just how impressive that was. Admittedly SKT went outside their comfort zone with the Sona/Taric but jeez... That said I actually was expecting this line to be closer and that we'd be getting some value with SKT but we aren't. For how these two teams play I'd expect a low scoring game HOWEVER 21.5 is a REALLY REALLY LOW total so we're going to put a unit+ on the over here. I kind of want to put a unit on the under 32 minutes as well but I expect this to be a close matchup and I'm not sure how these teams will approach the drafts. Liquid's strengths actually line up quite well with SKT's but I think Faker is enough of a difference maker over Jensen that I'm not sure it will matter.
Over/Under: TL/SKT OVER 21.5 kills @ -114 (1.5 units)
--------------------------
Flash Wolves vs Invictus Gaming
Wow! What a statement by Invictus! For real that's pretty impressive but as I mentioned earlier I'm actually going to fade them here. While I think PVB are a worse team than FW their style lends itself to upsets more but the truth is IG still should have lost that match to PVB. I'm going to put a quarter unit on both IG dogs tomorrow on principal.
Moneyline: Flash Wolves +611 (0.25 units)
--------------------------
Phong Vu vs G2 eSports
I expect G2 to be full try hard here with a chance to pull ahead of SKT in the standings. They do have a bit of disrespect in their history but I'd expect them to take care of business against PVB instead of playing with their food. If G2 enact a split like I expect them to in this game I like the under 28.5 as well.
Over/Under: PVB/G2 UNDER 28.5 kills @ -114 (1 unit)
--------------------------
Team Liquid vs Flash Wolves
Again a similar spot to G2 in the previous match. Western teams tend to be a lot more "try hard" against weaker foes than someone like Invictus and I expect Team Liquid to do just that. I had Team Liquid sweeping both Flash Wolves AND PVB and maybe stealing a game somewhere else going into the tournament and that hasn't changed. Team Liquid actually look quite good. Much better than in the play in match against PVB and more along the lines of what I expected. Flash Wolves showed a lot more fight today than they did on day one so I'm actually going to go with the over 23.5 here but avoid the time total since I'm not sure how Team Liquid will try to approach this. I think with a split push you could still end up with a decent kill total with Flash Wolves forcing team fight like they have been since adjusting.
Over/Under: TL/FW OVER 23.5 kills @ -114 (1 unit)
--------------------------
SK Telecom vs G2 eSports
I know SKT just got embarassed by IG and that G2 upset them in the first match and that we also called that BUT.... SKT is still an excellent team. Unfortunately we're not getting great odds here so I'd avoid this match. I'm going to bet a unit on SKT more or less to plant my flag but don't feel obligated to do the same. I think SKT are still just as good as IG and G2.
Moneyline: SK Telecom -123 (1 unit)
--------------------------
Invictus vs Phong Vu
My brain is telling me to bet the under 31.5 kills here because it's such an obscenely high number and I logically expect IG to "avenge" their near loss to PVB with a clean stomping and an attempt to break their own record but another part of me tells me that this team seemingly ALWAYS plays down to their competition and wouldn't be opposed to a fun clown fiesta again. As I mentioned I'm fading IG today with a quarter unit on both dogs they're facing BUT I LOVE the UNDER 29:00 here. I think either PVB are going to win in some weird blowout early or IG are going to speed run them. One way or the other I like the UNDER 29:00. I'm leaning toward the under 31.5 too but I feel exposed enough for a game like this on just this.
Moneyline: Phong Vu +722 (0.25 units)
Over/Under: UNDER 29:00 @ -114 (2.5 units)
Over/Under UNDER 31.5 kills @ -114 (strong lean)
--------------------------
Parlays:
Parlay (2): SKT -323 vs TL + TL -313 vs FW @ -137 (2 units)
Parlay (2): PVB/G2 UNDER 28.5 kills + TL/SKT OVER 21.5 kills @ total +253 (0.5 units)
Parlay (2): TL/SKT OVER 21.5 kills + IG/PVB UNDER 29:00 @ total +253 (0.5 units)
Parlay (2): PVB/G2 UNDER 28.5 kills + IG/PVB UNDER 29:00 @ total +253 (0.5 units)
Parlay (3): IG/PVB UNDER 29:00 + PVB/G2 UNDER 28.5 kills + TL/SKT OVER 21.5 kills @ total +564 (0.5 units)
No comments:
Post a Comment