Betting: May 6th (MSI Play-In Day 4 - Knockout Stage)

MSI - Play-In Stage - Day 4 - Knockout Stage

So I'm not going to have a ton to say about these matches despite betting them really heavily and it's mostly because I think the wild card regions, for whatever reason, are extremely weak this year. I thought the first day was kind of a fluke with all the bad play but it honestly didn't improve that much over the rest of the group stage. Unfortunately for us the books/algorithm felt the same way so we're not getting too much crazy value but I feel very strongly that Team Liquid is not only being slept on by most Western fans but that Phong Vu Buffalo looked significantly better than they are. 

Team Liquid have gotten to see a double round robin best of one group stage plus regular season film on Phong Vu which will bring them a huge edge and limit the amount of surprises that Phong Vu could bring to the table. Liquid are also the first team Phong Vu will likely ever face that has a superior early game to their own and I'm interested to see how they handle that which is a nice way of saying they're not going to have a clue what to do. Phong Vu have gotten by on their individual strength I feel Team Liquid are as good or better at every position AND bring much stronger team play and basic fundamentals. They've also had stronger competition to test that against. 

I think Team Liquid convincingly 3-0 this. The level of play from the wild card regions was disappointingly low and unless Team Liquid come out completely flat and drop game one I full expect this to be an EASY 3-0. Phong Vu and all the other wild card teams are simply not that good. I'm talking like A Tier vs D Tier here. Yea this metagame has the potential for upsets but I just don't see it.

I'm also taking the unders on kill totals and time for map one and then seeing how it looks from there. Typically in game one you either get nervous long games or both teams having a linear game plan that is executed well to make for short games one way or the other.

"Gut": Liquid 3-0 (heavy)

Confidence: 4.5 / 5 (handicap), 6 / 5 (ML)

Value: 0 /1.5 (handicap), 0 /1.5 (ML)

Prop: Exact Liquid 3-0 @ +155 (7.2 units) (BOOK MAX)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 24.5 Kills @ -116 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -116 (2 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 24.5 Kills @ -116 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -116 (2 units)

(I may also add the -2.5 @ +134 because the limit is 8.2 units but I'm going to think on it)

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Now this one is a little bit more interesting because while I think the Flash Wolves are starting to hit their stride as they grow together, I'm not quite sure they're a team that's on the same level as the major regions this year. I also think Vega looked a little better than Phong Vu showing a lot more versatility and patience in game. To sum that up, I think Team Liquid is stronger than Flash Wolves and that Vega is stronger than Phong Vu but it's still tricky to determine just how much distance is between these two teams so let's get some context here.

Flash Wolves had a rough start to their rebuilding year but progressed more and more over the course of the season. While I thought they might still be the best in their region I was proven wrong a few times and MAD Team turned out to be a pretty good team. The two of them are much better than the rest of the LMS. So when we look at a team that 3-0'd their finals against the #1 seed that was the other good team it's really easy to jump to conclusions like "clearly they're the best LMS team" or "they have to be good they stomped the second best team." I think in this particular situation that isn't the case. MAD Team seemed completely unprepared for the Sylas and while I'm not going to excuse that for them, we can all understand a team that is caught off guard by a pick and can't adjust fast enough. Credit to Flash Wolves for a well played series but I think MAD Team legitimately looked a little off in this final. Uniboy oculdnt get ANYTHING done against Rather after a full season of destroying the competition. He played a lot of Galio and Lissandra admittedly but he had some carry picks perform well also. Anyway the point I'm making is that MAD Team weren't themselves and while I bet Flash Wolves to win that series I didn't think it'd be in the fashion they did, I expected a close 3-1 or 3-2 series. 

Vega weren't even the favorites in their domestic region finishing 3rd despite probably being the second best team. Elements was a severe let down I have to admit but Vega decisively 3-0ing perennial contenders Gambit was perhaps a sign. Vega are a cool team. They kind of remind me of a diet version of G2 (... like Diet Shasta not Diet Coke). They do their own thing and see the game a different way than most people but they can also play standard. They're versatile, smart, and patient. They're a very well rounded team and that seem to have come into their own and progressed as the season went along in a historically strong IWC region. 

I think this match is significantly closer but the lines don't tell us that. Vega turned out to be the best IWC team and I think it was by a fair margain. I think they're much better than Phong Vu. I also think Flash Wolves is not as strong as Team Liquid. So how far apart are these teams? I'm going to bet as though Flash Wolves should be a small favorite. If I had to cap this game it'd be something like Flash Wolves -150ish so when I see -500 my mouth waters a little. 

If your book offers the +1.5 maps for Vega it's probably around +160 or better and I'd fire moderately on that but none of the ones I use do so I'll instead be firing on the more conservative OVER 3.5 maps @ -167 as my primary bet for this series with a smaller wager on the Vega moneyline. We've talked a lot recently on the cast about how "value" betting doesn't always pan out in league because the lines are so extreme. In other words a loser is a loser regardless of the value MOST of the time. This is, however, one of those exceptions. I could definitely see Vega stealing this series if they have even more tricks up their sleeve. I don't think it's likely that they do but we've seen teams from this region surprsie before. The LMS is also, historically, a very traditional style region and that was certainly the case again this year and they could easily be thrown off by the weird approach that Vega have enough so that I don't think the "having film" advantage is as big as it normally would be. 

I don't pick a lot of long shot underdogs but Vega are the exact type of team I like in these situations.

"Gut": Vega +2.5 @ -192 (heavy)

Confidence: 4.5 / 5 (handicap), 3.5 / 5 (ML)

Value: 0 /1.5 (handicap), 1.5 /1.5 (ML)

Prop: OVER 3.5 total maps played @ -167 (6 units)

Moneyline: Vega Squadron +324 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 23.5 total Kills @ -116 (1 unit)

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Parlay (2): TL 3-0 + VS/FW OVER 3.5 maps @ total +308 (2 units)