Mithy is still bald, Kalvin is annoyed with old people, Chris brings the ladies back to the podcast, guest pupper doggos, and Vince struggles to edit audio. We also talk about the playoff pictures in each of the major regions for those that care about that.
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Before diving into this slate I just want to point out just how ridiculous a season Griffin are having because this isn't quite like anything we've seen before. I want to quickly compare them to some of the greatest regular season performances of all time.
- Champions Summer 2015 (Korea): SK Telecom went 17-1 in match play with a 35-6 game record. A lot of people, myself included, consider this the most impressive single season performance of all time especially considering the strength of competition in what most considered the strongest region at the time.
- LMS Spring 2017 (Taiwan): Flash Wolves go 14-0 in matches and a near perfect 28-1 in game score.
- LPL Spring 2018 (China): Invictus goes 18-1 in matches and 37-5 in game record.
- LPL Spring 2019 (China): Invictus goes 18-1 in matches and 37-12 in game record
- LPL Spring 2015 (China): EDward Gaming go 17-4-1 (best of twos) with a 38-6 game score.
- LMS Spring 2016 (Taiwan): AHQ eSports go 11-3-0 in best of twos and 25-3 in games.
- NA LCS Spring 2014 (NA): Cloud 9 go 24-4 in games
There were other impressive runs I'm forgetting about but the main points I wanted to bring up are two-fold.
First, that we shouldn't rule out "the impossible." Why can't a team lose one game an entire LCK season? It's exceedingly difficult sure but why can't it be done? There's a certain amount of faith to a lot of this stuff and that's a bit of a taboo word in these circles but sometimes you need to believe the unbelievable when presented with exceptional circumstances. Nobody said Patrick Mahomes could throw 50 touchdowns as a rookie (basically). I saw a unique gift and talent and a tremendous situation and I bought as if he would throw 60. I was not disappointed.
Second, and this is a bit of a counter to the first point but hear me out, time has shown that even some of the most dominant rosters and regular season performances OF ALL TIME have had difficulty not dropping at least a few games along the way. Hell, for my money the greatest single team in competitive League of Legends history was Season 4 champions Samsung White didn't even get first place in their region that year. It's not always a measure of how great a team is.
I'm going to talk about this more in our first match but I just wanted to touch on just how historic a run we could be witnessing here and nobody is talking about it.
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LCK Spring 2019 - W7D2:
Griffin are having one of the most ridiculous season I've ever seen and I've been watching competitive League of Legends for more than eight years. I mean seriously just look at these KDAs.... This is 21 games... that's more than an LCS season. As they say in the business "lul wut?!" Take a second and just appreciate that we could be witnessing history here.
So how am I siding on this match? I think the value is in SKT and there has been some movement toward SKT both the moneyline and the handicap. There is all sorts of historical concepts and trends you could point to about how difficult it is for teams not to win this much. SKT are also, in my opinion, the clear cut second best team in the league. How do you turn down the second best team at these odds?
Because it's Griffin....
Because it's Griffin....
I can't express to you all just how dominant this team has been. I'm not saying it's impossible for them to lose, as a matter of fact if any team is going to beat them it's SKT and in this exact spot but I'm actually going the other way. SKT came into the first meeting looking like the real deal and having just played two competitive series against DAMWON and Sandbox the two new hotshot teams before a showdown in the last match before the break against Griffin. You best bet they had this match on their calendar all offseason and they were preparing for it. You know what happened in that series?
Utter destruction. Griffin were like Samsung White back in the day, completely toying with their food and laughing maniacally (thanks imp!) while doing so. This team is on a different level. I've been watching VODs for these two teams all day long and while SKT completely stomped Kingzone, a team I consider the third best in Korea, in their most recent match and they have had to have the complete humiliation Griffin delivered to them on their mind for weeks now I just can't bring myself to bet against this Griffin team.
Now there are all sorts of reasons and approaches you could take to this match. You could justify the SKT +1.5 at almost even money which is pretty absurd when you think about it. I wouldnt fault you for that. As a matter of fact I'm not going to fault you for any sort of SKT sided bet here but to me, even with all the value we're getting, I just can't do it.
I say again, why can't a team approach perfection like this? I'm willing to believe. If you want to bet the revenge narrative or the two of the greatest players of all time on one team argument or the fact that SKT are the only team capable of defeating this team and use that as your reasoning to bet SKT here be my guest but I don't feel strongly enough to bet against Griffin. As a matter of fact I think this is the last chance we're going to have to get Griffin at a reasonable number the rest of the season.
I'll go ahead and say it. I think Griffin are going to finish the rest of the season perfect. They'll finish the season with an 18-0 match score and a 36-1 game score. This team is different than anything I've ever seen in my years of watching this game. It's not just the gaudy numbers or the swagger, plenty of other teams have had that. It's not even the fact that this team punted a chance at going to Worlds in their first season in what looks now to be one of the flukiest match results in recent history (not saying it was but sure looks that way in hindsight right?). It's the combination of everything. Coaching, understanding of the current game, fresh blood, individual prowess, a seemingly endless supply of confidence, and a complete lack of fear even when looking some of the greatest players of all time right in the eye as they smash them. These guys are a bunch of killers.
SK Telecom are my favorite team and franchise of all time in League of Legends. I was on them before Faker was big, I was with them through thick and thin so it should mean something to you when I say....
Handicapped: Griffin -1.5 maps @ -125 (3 units)
There has been a lot of line movement on this match. On the podcast we discussed this match at even money. It seems people have done their research. I was on KT Rolster on the show and I still am. The question is whether or not this line changes my decision. Are KT Rolster that much better than Gen.G? I for one think so. KT Rolster are attempting to play the game the optimal way and they're capable of excecuting early on it they've just had troubles closing. Gen.G on the other hand haven't jumped out on anybody really besides Jin Air. KT should be able to get leads in this series and even if they botch one I still thnk they take the series down. If they show up looking good it wouldn't surprise me to see them 2-0 this awful Gen.G team. Ultimately this is two weaker teams and you should know that I've had a bad track record betting matches that involve Gen.G this season as well as last season but I think KT are the right side here regardless of any of the statistic edges (such as vision) that Gen.G have. I think KT are fundamentally a better team and are approaching the game the correct way unlike Gen.G.
Moneyline: KT Rolster -139 (2 units)
Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +244 (1 unit) (I put this bet in on Wednesday afternoon)
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LPLSpring 2019 - W7D4:
I'm abstaining from this matchup as TopSports should roll but this number is a bit too rich. That said Vici have stolen games off of some good teams this season including a 2-1 win over SinoDragon, games off of Suning and EDG, and a game off of Victory 5 if you consider them to be a good team (I do). The +1.5 @ +191 is an excellent number and this isn't a bad spot to take that but I think TopSports are going to roll here. They almost just defeated Snake in under 50 total minutes. They're not a team that takes the "bad teams" lightly.
No wager
Other than a really bizarre 2-0 over Invictus (yea right?) coming off of the holiday break LGD haven't really done much of anything. This team perplexes me. They have individual games where they look like they could be something. They've stolen games off of RNG (no Uzi), Invictus, FunPlus and Suning but then lost everyone of those series and were 2-0'd by teams like WE... You could tell a story where LGD win a game here. They've certainly done stranger things already this season but EDG look like the best team in the LPL at the moment as I discussed on the podcast. They've got the eye of the tiger so to speak. -189 is actually a bettable number for me and I'll be taking it. I'm not buying the LGD fluke-stars narrative. This team is bad and EDG are one of the best teams on the planet right now. I'll drink the juice and take my free money.
Handicapped: EDG -1.5 maps @ -189 (3 units)
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LMS Spring 2019 - W6D2:
I've been slowly chipping away at LMS VODs and am starting to get an idea of the picture for the league. Flash Wolves are the best (or second best if you like MAD) team in the LMS. I know the record doesn't necessarily show it but they look it to me and the differential statistics would support the claim as well depsite MAD Teams 8-1 match start. Dragon Gate are the worst team in the league from what I've watched. In most regions this is a -250 or more line and we're getting -169. I like Flash Wolves for a couple units. They've been improving over the season.
Handicapped: Flash Wolves -1.5 @ -169 (2 units)
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LEC Spring 2019 - W8D1:
I'm not going to bet this slate at all but John George did an excellent breakdown on the podcast about his EU playoff projections and I more or less entirely agree with him. The EU betting action this weekend is Saturday. I LOVE SK Gaming to beat Splyce on Saturday so bit of a look ahead line there. I'll be 2-3 units on it.
No wager (lean Fnatic -179 or better)
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Parlay (3): TOP -1.5 + EDG -1.5 + Flash Wolves -1.5 @ total odds +233 (0.5 units)
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