Betting: March 21st (LCK, LPL)

LCK Spring 2019 - W9D1:

The mighty Griffin (that I predicted might not lose another game all season Kappa) have dropped two series in a row and are suddenly only -143 to 2-0 in a bet that would have been somewhere closer to -250 just a couple weeks ago. My how the tables have turned. Anybody saying "Griffin have been figured out" is delusional. They had an extremely greedy game two draft against Gen.G running back an already risky comp for a second try. They did more legitimately lose to Afreeca in my opinion but again, somewhat risky drafts. I'm not going to put it all on that. I do think Sword has been struggling quite a bit to adapt to the new top lane meta. He's been a player that has relied heavily on Sion, Urgot, and Aatrox since joining the LCK so he's got some adjusting to do but I'm confident that will happen.

I'm going heavy on the Griffin 2-0 here for a few reasons but first I wanted to discuss the main counterpoint and why I'm going against it and that's that Hanwha are a team that are backed into a corner. This is a must win game for them. Teams in must win situations are dangerous and they also get side selection to come up with any sort of shenanigans they please here. So why am I betting into that? 

Because I'm buying the dip. 

Sure, you could make an arguement that Griffin don't really have too much to play for either but that narrative has changed since dropping two series unexpectedly. Their #1 seed is now threatened once more and suddenly they have a lot to play for again. Hanwha Life have also played back to back "must win" series and lost them and while they aren't dead yet their odds are very slim considering their own remaining schedule  as well as that of their their competition in DAMWON and Kingzone. 

• If you still agree that Korea is separated into the Griffin Tier 1, SKT/Kingzone Tier 1.5, and Sandbox/DAMWON Tier 2, then Griffin are two full tiers better than the next squad and tier on that list in Hanwha. 
• Hanwha have played back to back "must win" series and have to be close to exhausting all of their strategic options.
• "Sword struggling" narrative is sorta flimsy to me based on a few matches
• Metrics are all ridiculously in Griffin's favor.
• Griffin have something to play for again
• Hanwha have to be at least a little morally defeated after losing back to back must wins
• Hanwha roster shuffling potential.

Sure there is a chance Hanwha muster what's left in the tank and take a game here but I'm willing to bet against that AND the "Griffin are mortal" narrative at the same time to collect some value here. Before their last two matches you could've argued Hanwha could steal a game because they'd be fighting for playoff contention while Griffin had things locked OR you could have argued that Griffin would be -2000 favorites. Why are we letting two series change our mind on this team so much? They're by far the best team in this region and while playoffs might be interesting Hanwha aren't even, likely, a playoff team and they're safe from relegation as well having already secured enough of a lead in that department. I don't really care about side selection here either because if Hanwha had anything strategic as a surprise we would have seen it in their last two series. This team is spent. While they put up a fight in their last two series they were also gifted at least two wins in those six games if you ask me but that's a different discussion. I love the Hanwha Life Tryhards (should be their name) but they're going to get demolished here. I LOVE the Tom Brady revenge tour feel to this pick. Everyone saying "Griffin are mortal" or "Griffin are falling off" or "they've been figured out" are in for a rude surprise. These guys basically rage stomped the LCK in frustration for not making Worlds for for the first eight weeks this season. 

Let's not look a gift horse in the mouth here.

"Gut": Griffin -1.5 (HEAVY)

Confidence: 4.5/5 (handicap), 5/5 (ML)

Value: 1.5 /1.5 (handicap), 0.5/1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: Griffin -1.5 @ -143 (5 units)

I haven't been the biggest fan of Kingzone's drafting and they had to play an absolute slugfest against Gen.G in their last match but I'm willing to say that, in this type of metagame, Gen.G aren't as awful as they were at the beginning of the season. They're a lot like Team WE, maybe I need to throw at least a little respect on their name in slower, scaling metagames. KT have shown pretty well over their last two series taking games off of SK Telecom and Sandbox. They're showing flashes of what I thought they could be going into the season but I simply can't ignore the elephant in the room here and that elephant is perhaps the most lopsided bottom lane mismatch in the LCK besides maybe Jin Air's bot lane fiasco. Deft and Tusin are going to have their way, whichever way, whichever flavor, whatever with whichever ADC and SnowFlower so the question is whether or not KT can either get an advantage from their edge in the solo lanes or hide the bottom lane. 

I actually think this matchup is closer than this line shows considering KT Rolster's recent performance and the individual player matchups in this game. I'd give two out of three lanes to KT Rolster but I've given them that in a lot of matchups this year and they've punted. My gut says to slam Kingzone 2-0 here but KT Rolster have to be desperate to tie Gen.G in the race to avoid relegation. A win here would put them to the same 4-11 record and one win behind Afreeca. The -109 number is so juicy but I'm actually going to abstain from betting this other than putting it in a parlay with Griffin -1.5. I think Kingzone are the 3rd best team in the LCK and honestly, if playoffs were today I might put them ahead of SKT (that'll change by seasons end I think). They look really good. They also have only played two series this entire season that have gone to a third game: one a loss against SKT and another a win against Gen.G. Kingzone can typically be relied on to take care of business but KT have their backs against the wall and are fighting to avoid relegation which is a dangerous foe. 

I'm going to partially stick with my gut here but after researching and thinking this one through we're just going to do a light wager on the Kingzone 2-0. I think they could win this 2-0 even if KT show well and it's not like Kingzone have nothing to play for either, a win here could put them furhter ahead of Hanwha and DAMWON as well as into the conversation for the #2/3 seeds with SKT and Sandbox. 

"Gut": Kingzone -1.5 (medium-heavy)

Confidence: 3.5/5 (handicap), 4.5/5 (ML)

Value: 1.5 /1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ -109 (2 units)

Parlay (2): Griffin -1.5 + Kingzone -1.5 @ 226 (1 unit)

Parlay (3): Griffin -1.5 + Kingzone -1.5 + Flash Wolves -1.5 @ +406 (0.5 units)

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LMS Spring 2019 - W8D1:

Ater making all these sweet +800 Alpha win calls I'm betting against them today. Flash Wolves are actually -182 to 2-0 this which I think is pretty close to shoebox money. Not only that but Flash Wolves are half a game back from MAD Team for the #1 seed in the LMS and have an extra series to play. Flash Wolves play twice this week while MAD only play once and then both will have two matches next week. MAD vs GRex, Flash Wolves vs JTeam, before meeting in what looks to be a battle for the #1 seed in the very last game of the regular season in W9D3. Flash Wolves are the better team by a fair margain if you ask me and many of the metrics bare that out. They're not only going to be incentivized by the race for #1 but they also completely smashed Alpha the first meeting.

Look I can totally see the argument for Alpha and the whole "Flash Wolves are going to look past them" narrative but Flash Wolves are leaps and bounds better AND the odds aren't good enough to bet Alpha even if you did like that. I LOVE Flash Wolves to sweep this. These teams aren't even in the same galaxy and while Alpha seem to have made it their mission to play up to the best teams this season they're just not cut out for this. We're not getting a ton of value which will keep this out of 5+ unit range but this feels like a lock to me.

"Gut": Flash Wolves -1.5 (heavy)

Confidence: 4.5/5 (handicap), 5/5 (ML)

Value: 0.5 /1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: Flash Wolves -1.5 maps @ -182 (3 units)

G-Rex looks like an easy bet because both of these teams LOOK very similar AND HKA are coming off of losing four of their last five series 0-2 before bouncing back against the leagues worst team in Dragon Gate but it was against a formidable schedule. The metrics are heavily in HKA's favor but you could argue that they've struggle recently. I'm not going to bet this as of right now but it's close to a 1-2 unit wager on the underdog here. These teams likely shouldn't be this far apart especially because the middle of the table in the LMS is a bit of a crapshoot a lot of the time I like underdogs in mid table bouts. Check back later.

Pending (strong lean to G-Rex +140 or better)