World 2018 Pre-Tournament Power Rankings (Tier List)

World 2018 Pre-Tournament Power Rankings (Tier List)

This will be my personal power rankings going into the tournament. These do not factor in group draw or matchup strength and are strictly attempting to look at these teams relative to each other and with my opinions. I find that a tier list is the best way to group these teams together. The tier is the first indicator of overall strength and ranking within that tier will represent where I actually rank the 24 teams in list format.

These are my opinions and aren't entirely based on results so there will be some variation in what you'd consider to be consensus. I tend to place a lot of weight on both regional strength and strategic potential and less on results for the year.

Only 16 teams actually make it to the main event from the starting 24. While there are going to be a lot of hipsters out there trying to say otherwise, I think it's reasonable to expect the NA, EU, LPL, and LMS #3 seeds to be the last four teams in this tournament. As mentioned earlier these are pre-tournament power rankings not necessarily the order of finish. Certain teams have already qualified that I think might be worse than teams that haven't. My power rankings will be the baseline for how I compare teams to one another before diving into specifics of matchups.

The Tiers:

Tier 1 - Favorites to win the tournament, truly world class teams that I expect to get out of groups and make a run to win the entire tournament.

Tier 1.5 - Better than the rest of the tier 2 teams but not quite as high a ceiling and likelihood to win the entire tournament as the tier 1 teams.

Tier 2 - Teams that I expect to get out of group stage and could potentially give a competitive series to the tier 1 and 1.5 teams but aren't likely to go past the Top 8.

Tier 3 - Teams with a 50% or less chance to get out of group stage. Some of these may get out depending on group draw but require a favorable draw and matchups to do so.

Tier 4 - Outside favorites to get out of the play-in stage but not likely to win more than a game or two in the actual group stage IF they get there

Tier 5 - Teams that I don't think will get out of the play-in stage.

Some pre-rankings discussion...

• ·         To me Korea and China both had 4.5 Tier 1 teams and unfortunately only get to send three teams each. Unfortunately we got both of the 1.5 teams (EDG and Afreeca). Korea had KT Rolster, Griffin, Gen.G, and Kingzone as Tier 1 teams and Afreeca as a tier 1.5 type of team. China had RNG, Invictus, Rogue Warriors, and JDG as tier 1 teams and EDG as a tier 1.5 team. Any of the top four teams in both China and Korea would have been favorites above the field to win the tournament.
• ·         China took a step forward as they historically only have 1-2 world class teams and sometimes one other 1.5 level team to me. With significant improvements in China I think it brings a couple new wrinkles to this tournament. Korea always has 4-5 world class teams and now China can compete, upping the level of competition to make all the teams in the LPL better.
• ·         It also means that, despite improving as a whole region, I think NA has a really long shot to do anything better than Top 8 in this tournament because of China's new found improvement.
• ·         EU I think is slightly worse this year despite having new kids on the block Vitality representing them. Overall the region I think got slightly weaker relative to last year but not by much. The top teams in Europe are still good and can compete on a world stage.
• ·         The LMS, overall, has also been downgraded to me similar to Europe. Other than Flash Wolves, the other top teams simply aren't as good as they were in past years and it has made the region as a whole slightly weaker. Much like last year we don't have a competitive #2 or #3 from Taiwan. You saw with how poorly AHQ performed last year relative to previous years that Taiwan doesn't have the depth of competition it used to. Flash Wolves is still a great team but the fact that they have weaker competition works against them in my rankings.
• ·         I haven't watched a lot of wildcard regions other than Turkey and some CIS but I don't really expect any of the wildcard regions to make a splash this year. Every year there is a surprising wildcard squad but I think the major region teams have finally wised up to taking these teams lightly. Unless this patch proves to allow some really weird picks and strategies (which it could), then I don't really see the wildcard regions holding up or surprising anyone with more than one, maybe two game wins IF they were to get out of play-ins.

·       Generally speaking I think the tier 1 and 1.5 teams won't lose to any of the tier 2 teams in a best of five.

Now without further ado, the rankings...

Tier 1 (The Favorites)

1) KT Rolster (KR #1) - Most people will have RNG in this slot but most people have KT next anyway. I don't think anybody would debate that these two are the consensus favorites to win the tournament but the reason I prefer KT Rolster is due to a combination of factors. Although RNG have  won Rift Rivals and MSI as well as both domestic splits of the much improved LPL I can't help but think the LCK teams will show better at Worlds. They always do. Historically the Korean teams use information better than anybody else and I feel that over the course of the tournament they'll gain enough of an edge from this to end up the eventual winners. On the more instinctual and emotional side of things, there is simply something different feeling about this year's KT Rolster. They haven't been punting games to bad teams all year and have steadily improved as the year has progressed. They're extremely well-rounded and have four Hall of Fame level players and debatably the best young talent on the planet in UCal. If you think KT and RNG are the favorites to win the tournament I think looking at them head to head is a reasonable tiebreaker and I think KT Rolster would win the best of five.

2) Royal Never Give Up (CN #1) - As mentioned above, most people think this isn't even a debate that RNG are the top team in the world right now. They've been utterly smashing domestically and in international competition all year and have even looked like they're just toying with their opponents in a lot of games. This team is scary good. The main reason I don't have them listed as the favorites is less to do with them and more to do with the Korean teams looking particularly bad in international competition this year. Not that we're all necessarily sleeping on Korea but I think we're automatically giving RNG the nod simply because they won a couple of tournaments that the Koreans either didn't care about or didn't show well at (perhaps both). Make no mistake this team is excellent and I think KT and RNG are more or less equal odds in my mind to win this entire tournament, I just prefer KT. They're the two best teams in this tournament.

3) Invictus (CN #2) - Invictus brought RNG to five games and have been a team that has flown under the radar to non-LPL fans all season because RNG has taken the spotlight at all the international events. Really until the end of Summer Split in the LPL you could argue Invictus was the best team in the LPL and just lost a heartbreaker in Spring Semifinals to RNG in five games. There's a really good chance we could have seen Invictus with the top LPL seed to international events and taking those down in much the same way. This team is just a tad snakebitten. If you look at how dominant RNG have been both domestically and internationally then you have to respect that Invictus have been one of the only teams that can challenge them they just haven't beaten them yet. For about three-quarters of the year I had Invicuts as the best team in China despite RNG winning Spring and winning the two large international events. Invictus are severely underrated going into this tournament especially by the "public" and I expect we can take advantage of this misperception to get some good odds!

4) Gen.G (KR #3) - You all know how much I loathe this team. Back to back years now they've knocked out a team that I would have rather seen at the World Championship over them but I have to admit what I see and that's a team that's motivated to defend their title. Gen.G looked ridiculous in the Region Gauntlet, the best they've looked all year in fact. Coming in hot can be bad but I think in this case the confidence will make a world of difference for this team. I'm interested to see which players they choose to bring to the tournament but I don't think it particularly effects where I'd rank them. Gen.G could go back to back and if they're even 80% of the team they showed themselves to be in the Regional Gauntlet I think they get out of groups regardless of the group strength and make a deep run in the tournament. I don't see anybody outside of the Top 3 teams being favored in a series against Gen.G unless they show horribly in groups.

Tier 1.5

5) Afreeca (KR #2) - To me Afreeca were the 5th best team in Korea by the end of the year. I thought Griffin, KT, Gen.G, and Kingzone were all stronger teams by a decent chunk but because of these strength of the region and the fact that this team is capable of beating higher level teams I can't push them all the way down to tier 2. The only thing Afreeca have done wrong is not be as absurdly individually skilled as the top four teams in their region. They're a great team just not the class of the world. Typically teams in this spot are really narrow but particularly good at their main strategy but Afreeca are very well-rounded and have excellent coaching. Their preparation will be top notch but their ability to overwhelm opponents individually is the only thing keeping them out of tier 1.

6) EDG (CN #3) - I almost wanted to put EDG at the top of tier 2 but they've looked stronger than they have all year in playoffs and the regional gauntlet and that combined with the overall strength of their region I'm going to up them to Tier 1.5 despite my gut telling me to push them down a tier from Afreeca. EDG are much more specialized than Afreeca. They're less versatile than Afreeca but are more individually gifted and explosive. EDG are a team that have game winners. They have individuals that can simply take over a game and often play aggressively to do so.

**I think both EDG and Afreeca are stronger than the rest of the field but a cut below the top four teams hence putting them in their own half tier.**

Tier 2

7) Team Liquid (NA #1) - I wiffed hard on TSM last year going into Worlds. I thought they were the strongest roster NA has ever sent to Worlds and I still feel that way but I don't think Team Liquid are that much different and I think this team has a swagger and confidence that TSM didn't have. I legitimately think Team Liquid will get out of groups unless they rip into some crazy group of death situation. This team isn't as one dimensional as people think they are, they simply didn't need to show anything else domestically in order to win. Doublelift is playing the best league of his career and if the rest of his team shows up in a metagame where ADC's are relatively strong they'll be a force to be reckoned with and could even go as far as Top 4 with the right matchups. With experience, hunger, individual talent, versatility, and great coaching I think Team Liquid are well positioned to make the deepest run NA has ever made at the World Championships.

8) Fnatic (EU #1) - It's easy to say Fnatic always "clutch it out" but this is a team with a lot of experience and much like TL are well-coached and more versatile than they look. With world class carry players a team can go far and if you subscribe to the "only as strong as your weakest link" philosophy then Fnatic are in a decent spot with rookie Bwipo showing well in both positions. Ultimately I think this team does have some weaknesses that can be abused but the combination of individual talent and experience as well as a region that, I must admit, was better than I thought to test them week in and week out in a variety of different styles all add up to create a team that I expect to get out of groups barring a brutal group draw.

9) Flash Wolves (TW #1) - Flash Wolves are perennial Top 8 finishers and known as the "Korean Slayers" but they always prove challenging to rank going into the tournament. Historically Taiwan has had two very strong, world class teams that can test each other but last year and this year they simply lacked that. The region isn't as strong overall as it used to be. Years ago we had AHQ who, while not as strong, were competitive enough to challenge Flash Wolves and the rest of the world competitors. I don't see G-Rex or MAD Team in the same light as I saw a 2015 AHQ. These teams weren't really challengers for Flash Wolves. As I said at the beginning of this post, I put a lot of weight on regional strength because it breeds improvement and innovation but at the same time I can't completely hold it against Flash Wolves because they smashed a weaker region. If that's all they can do then it's all they can do. It's like a Super Bowl contender smashing a bad division, you can't fault them for doing that but you can use it to break ties. I think Flash Wolves aren't as good as Fnatic or Team Liquid but they are better than the rest of the field. The LMS isn't what it used to be and I don't think Flash Wolves would be favored against any of the teams I have ranked above them and potentially even below them depending on group stage performance.

Tier 3

10) Cloud 9 (NA #3) - Cloud 9 are red hot right now and I'm interested to see what the down time does to their momentum. I'm also interested to see which players they end up bringing but I don't think they're on quite the same level as the top international teams. I'm cooking a little bit of regression to the mean into this ranking otherwise they'd be in tier 2. I don't think Cloud 9 are quite as good as they've been playing. I don't think they're that much worse though and they're playing really confident right now which means something. Cloud 9 have one of the higher ceilings of the remaining teams especially if Jensen turns it on. Consider that they did all this without Jensen doing what he normally does and just taking over games.

11) G2 eSports (EU #3) - I think the G2 we saw spanking the Regional Gauntlet is closer to what we'll see at the World Championship. It's closer to what I expected to see all year and they look like a team, much like Cloud 9, that could be peaking at the right time. I can't put C9 and G2 higher than this simply because their lows are very bad and they need to play at their top end to compete internationally.

12) Team Vitality (EU #2) - This ranking might surprise some people as I've been a Vitality hater all year long but historically speaking, at the World Championships, teams that stick to who they are tend to do well. Misfits did it last year, Albus Nox Luna, LMQ, AHQ, the list goes on. This is partially a bet on Team Vitality not to defeat themselves by trying to be something they're not. It's something that happens to a lot of teams at the World Championship. For whatever reason when they start scrimming they get ideas in their head and try to warp and learn to play how other teams are doing things when the majority of the time they'd be better off just being themselves. I don't think it's particularly likely for this team to go far but if they catch teams off guard with their exceptional up-tempo style they could get out of groups.

13) 100 Thieves (NA #2) - This is basically a bet on Aphro calling a great game and 100 Thieves' macro being excellent. To me 100 Thieves are sort of the gatekeepers to the rest of the Worlds' competition. They're disciplined and have excellent macro play and decision making but they're not very strategically diverse and their individual players aren't remotely on the same level as the rest of the competition in this tournament. This is also a nod to NA being a stronger and deeper region in my opinion and 100 Thieves playing simple, fundamental league and still doing well enough domestically to get a spot at worlds. 100 Thieves have perhaps the lowest ceiling of any of the major region teams and I don't expect them to really make too much noise but I do think they're better than the rest of the field and will serve as a good check point for any lower teams to make a run in this tournament.

Tier 4

14) MAD Team (TW #2)

15) G-Rex (TW #3)

As I mentioned above when talking about Flash Wolves I think Taiwan took a step down as a region this year, therefore the #2 and #3 seeds for the LMS are getting a tier list downgrade from me. I don't think these teams are particularly bad but based off of what we've seen of these teams domestically as well as at Rift Rivals I have very low expectations for the region. I might be a tier low on these and I would understand if you wanted to argue for MAD and G-Rex to be in tier 3, after all the EU and NA teams haven't shown much this year against the Eastern teams either but I think NA and EU are slightly stronger regions as a whole than the LMS is and that's just my personal read on the situation. If you're higher on the LMS then these two both belong in tier 3. They have an incredible competitor in Flash Wolves to practice with and play against domestically (as well as the LPL teams they likely scrim against), so unlike the wild card regions I give them a slight nod in regional strength but I don't expect these teams to do too much.

16) SuperMassive (TR) - After basically coasting all Summer Split long after a dominant Spring, SuperMassive seemingly decided to claim their Worlds spot with a strong domestic league victory in the finals. Turkey has represented well at Worlds and although they've never had a Top 8 finish their teams are often at least competitive and capable of stealing a game or two. This is arguably the best team Turkey has ever sent. This team is full of familiar names including three of the top Turkish players to ever play the game in fabFabulous, Stomaged, and Zeitnot but also add GBM and SnowFlower of LCK fame. This is a macro team. While they have some weird picks they don't cheese people. They're an excellent long game team and make intelligent decisions by playing around and for objectives over kills. They had a handful of games this year where they were in complete control at kill deficits. They play like an old school Korean team with a lot of discipline. I think that if we're going to get a team from the play-in stage to truly "upset" it'll be SuperMassive. I'm not going to put them in their own tier because they ultimately have a lot of the same problems as the other squads in this tier and there isn't much of a difference but this is a solid team that people will sleep on. Turkey as a region also improved dramatically in the Summer Split with Royal Bandits and Dark Passage making substantial improvements since Spring to really bring some competition to a region that SuperMassive literally went 26-2 against in Spring. Turkey also took down their Rift Rivals against Southeast Asia and the CIS, something I won't give too much weight to but I think was a relatively accurate representation of the overall strength of these regions.

17) Gambit eSports (CIS) - Another collection of familiar names and Worlds veterans line Gambit's roster heading into this years' World Championship but I think some context is in order here. Gambit floated around #2 or #3 for most of the Summer after winning the Spring Split and while you could argue that they did what SuperMassive did and just coasted to the playoffs (which I think is reasonable), they did defeat a team in Dragon Army in the finals that pulled a tremendous upset to defeat the #1 seeded M19 in the first round of the playoffs. They still dropped a game to the regional #4 seed. I'm just a tad shakier on Gambit this year because of this but ultimately they did take care of business and come to us from a region that historically has brought us some upset kings like Albus Nox Luna. For this reason I think Gambit are the second most likely next to SuperMassive to "upset" one of these "shoe-ins" in the play-in stage.

18) Phong Vu Buffalo (VN) - Phong Vu are a team that I haven't watched any games of besides their Summer finals match and Spring 3rd place match when they were Young Generation and lost. After a rebranding to Phong Vu and a roster shakeup they had a very strong showing in the Summer in the VCS going 12-2 in series score and 26-8 in game score. Vietnam has had some success on the international stage and specifically at the World Championship with the famous Gigabyte Marines but I tend to think that that team was an exception. This is a region that typically likes to play hyper aggressive and can catch teams completely off guard with their style but I think the secret is out and ever since that Gigabyte Marines run the VCS hasn't had a lot of success with representatives internationally. In terms of style they're quite a bit different from the Vietnemese teams most international viewers have come to know. They have solid macro and great team fighting which should be good in this metagame. Phong Vu are already qualified into the main event top 16 but I personally think there are teams from the play-in that aren't from major regions that are better than they are. 

Tier 5

19) Dire Wolves (OCE) - Dire Wolves looked excellent in their Rift Rivals appearances handedly dispatching Southeast Asia (including Ascension) and Japan with a perfect 4-0 record in the group stage but they did lose the first game in the extended 3v3 series format against Mineski and it took their teammates defeating their competition in the next three games to win it but they did. Dire Wolves were absolutely dominant domestically in the Oceanic League with a perfect 10-0 Summer Regular season and a decisive 3-1 Grand Finals victory over their main competition Chiefs. If you consider that the rest of Oceania overtook Southeast Asia rather easily in the small sample size we have (it's important to remember this is a small sample size of best of ones) then I think it's reasonable to rank Dire Wolves at the top of this tier of teams unlikely to make a run for a spot in the Main Event. This is a fairly strong International Wild Card team relative to history but with SuperMassive and Gambit ahead of them and the major region #3 seeds ahead of them I'd be hard pressed to sincerely give Dire Wolves a shot to get into the Main Event although a run in the play-in stage isn't out of the question, they can definitely steal games.

(UPDATE: With Shernfire banned and him being a crucial part of Dire Wolves success, I think they probably move to the very bottom. here)

20) Kabum! (BR) - A lot of people remember the historic upset handed to Alliance compliments of Kabum and while Brazil has always been one of the best of the wild card regions I just can't see it happening this year. At Rift Rivals they went more or less even with Latin America North and after Latin America South pulled a tremendous upset over LAN, Brazil top seeded Vivo Keyd proceeded to drop a game to Kaos Latin Gamers. I think these regions have learned a lot from each other and are closer than they have been in years past. Brazil has been more competitive domestically so they have that working for them but I just don't see Kabum doing much here.

21) Infinity eSports (LAN) - Infinity showed well at Rift Rivals but not enough to carry Rainbow 7 against Kaos Latin Gamers. I think LAN, LAS, and Brazil are all fairly even with a slight nod to Brazil simply for population and server size but these regions just don't have it this year.

22) Kaos Latin Gamers (LAS) - KLG were able to take down Brazil's top seed in a best of one in the 2v2 best of five at Rift Rivals but were otherwise fairly disappointing. LAS is just a really small server with not a lot of competition domestically. Their best bet is the Brazilian server but even then it's significantly smaller than the major regions. KLG are a surprisingly good team considering their circumstances and have always surprised at international events but I can't in good conscious rank them higher than anybody besides the regions I've got even less data and sample size from.

23) Ascension Gaming (SEA) - Ascension dominated this circuit and fairly easily got in as the representative but it's important to understand that the Southeast Asian scene is run much differently. They don't really have regular seasons just very short tournaments. Ascension have literally only played 22 individual games in their region this YEAR. There simply isn't a lot of data here while most of the other wild card regions at least have domestic leagues and longer seasons to give us a sample size. They've also only done decently in the small sample size Rift Rivals taking a game of Japans #2 Pentagram and losing to Dire Wolves. We simply don't have a lot on this team and while I think teams that don't have a lot of tape for other teams to watch can come in with a huge advantage I don't think major region teams are underestimating

24) DetonatioN FocusMe (JP) - I'm pulling for you Japan but the newest server hasn't done well internationally and unlike the SEA representative Ascension, I don't think DetonatioN have the aggression to even catch people off guard. Unlike Ascension we actually have a reasonable amount of film on DFM compared to Ascension. Really it doesn't matter at this point as I don't think any of these teams are going to do much but I think DetonatioN and Ascension are the weakest teams in the entire tournament.

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I'll be doing another post about gorup stage predictions as well as a short recap of last years group stage predictions but I wanted to put my power rankings out there so people had some context on the angle from which I'll be viewing these teams. I think it gives you all a good idea of how I feel about these teams and regions relative to one another.