Group A
So SKT managed to 5 - 1 the group and get the first seed but they did not look good doing so. They had three improbable comebacks but to me that speaks to their problems as a team as we move forward into the bracket stage of the tournament. SKT easily could have ended up 3 - 3 or worse so we hope to see the expected strength to adapt in a series prove valuable for them as we move further into the tournament. As I predicted, this SKT lineup is substantially weaker than the previous two seasons iterations.
The rest of this group was kind of odd. AHQ and EDG looked like they slept through week one but came into week two ready to play and, in EDG's case, with some excellent adjustments to their week one follies. I had EDG pinned as a much stronger team and expected more like the week two performance we saw. I loved that Cloud 9 stuck to what they knew for the most part but when showed a strong concept (WE's early game Caitlyn pick) were not afraid to adapt within hours to take what information was given to them. There's something about the team that doesn't look a strategic gift horse in the mouth that I respect a lot. Belichek and the Patriots do it to other NFL teams all the time. They don't play with an ego, they don't "stick to the script" or to "their system," they say "Well that's obvious let's just do that" and that's exactly what Cloud 9 did in week two. I'd rather see a team do that in a format where you play the second round robin in a single day than the opposite which is just to stick to what you practiced.
TANGENT: Ok so I'll get this out now because it pertains to TSM and Immortals and it'll save me from typing it out two more times but I can't stand the "playing percentages" approach that TSM, Immortals, and even SKT, Samsung, and G2 in this tournament take. I'm sure they'll win 60+% of their games just playing safe and scaling but if you're truly better than another team don't even give them the chance to snowball a game on you. I understand that the metagame is the metagame for a reason and all but especially when the metagame is as homogenous as it's been at this tournament I feel you can't afford to just say "we'll teamfight better" because it takes a much more minor mistake in that to lose a game on the spot than it does to mess up an early game. I'm not saying bad openings can't be catastrophic as well but I can't stand the passivity that these afformentioned teams showed up with. It's not like playing up-tempo isn't in their arsenal (ok well for Samsung it's not...). There's no excuses for that to me. I can respect sticking to a plan to an extent but in a best of two round robin group stage you have to look at what's in front of you and not deny it. Adapt. Play for each individual game and stop playing so vanilla. Have specific game plans for each game. Plan like you plan for an LCS week. You don't have the same game plan vs two different teams and I'm not entirely sure why NA teams inparticular think it's ok to approach it this way. Six games is not enough of a sample size to play the percentages or for optimal win chance. For lack of better terms, just ball out on people and stop playing to not lose and start playing to win.
Group B
Group B
Longzhu is going to win this tournament I think. They're just dominant in every facet of the game. I don't think any team in this tournament is equipped to beat them. If I had to pick someone it'd be SKT but I just don't think they have the versatility right now. Fnatic with the "reverse sweep" to come back from an 0 - 3 start in week one was historic and, frankly, unbelievable. I couldn't believe what I was seeing. It was the perfect sequence of events. I loved that Gigabyte Marines showed up with their MSI style and not the "oh we're just meta people now" that they showed during their summer split. They're a good example of grabbing the game by the balls and playing to win each game and not lose. Immortals severely disappointed me. I had such high hopes for them to show up with their strong up-tempo style and completely punish the metagame of this tournament but they just got absorbed into the amoeba of double hyper carry two core scaling comps that everybody was playing. Just so sad...
Group C
RNG showed up to play. As I wrote in my previous predictions, I thought that of the Chinese teams in this tournament they had the best chance to make a deep run and perhaps make it to finals even though I feel World Elite are a stronger team. Well RNG are every bit as fiery and dominant in game as they are personalities off the rift. They're a fun team to watch and I hope they continue to be. Samsung is just so boring... And that's coming from someone that loves excellent defense and disciplined play but man oh man is this team just lacking any kind of balls whatsoever. They got out of this group because they just have stronger players and are exceptionally good at what they do but I have a feeling they're just going to get completely run over if they don't make adjustments. G2 had a respectable showing but, as I thought, just didn't quite do enough to advance past the likes of RNG and Samsung. Fenerbahce had a couple of good games despite running a sub which surpised me and is perhaps an indication that this team could make an appearance again next year.
Group D
Well nobody saw that coming... Yea I'm talking to you guy that had Misfits advancing in your bracket because you're a homer... Nah I'm just salty, mad respect. I expressed my frustrations with TSM earlier but I'll quickly digress for a second here. This wasn't a draft problem or an individual problem or a coaching problem. Their Jayce pick was fine. Each player had moments of underperforming. They lost as a team. Period. It's a damn shame too because I'd take TSM in a best of five over Misfits like 95 times out of 100. That being said I think this has more to do with the ideological approach of split best of two round robin that I discussed in my tangent earlier.
Misfits look good. In no universe did I think I'd be saying that but they're playing with confidence, solid game plans, and they're playing without regret. They know who they are and they're going to go down trying to do what they do. And the reason that's different than TSM and Immortals "just doing what they do" is because Misfits are both adapting to the tournament, mixing in their own comfort and personal touch, and just playing out of their minds. To me this is damn near the level of Cindarella story that ANX was last year. EU was a weaker region, Misfits has no truly elite players. At least ANX had Kira. What a pleasant surprise and I couldn't be happier to have been wrong. They deserve to move on.
BRACKET STAGE PREDICTIONS
Longzhu Gaming vs Samsung Galaxy
You know by now that I think Longzhu wins this tournament so this is just a matter of how many games, if any, can Samsung take off of Longzhu. To me the answer is zero and that's not because I think Samsung is a bad team but Samsung is a predictable team and this happens to just be a complete nightmare matchup for them. This is the League of Legends equivalent of the football team that can't run block facing the best running game in the league. You can't stop them. That being said I didn't expect Samsung to beat KT either and it was a similar type of matchup. This team made finals last year and they're a world class squad that will, no doubt, make adjustments. I think Samsung takes one game here unless Bizarro Longzhu shows up and gets absorbed into the metagame amoeba like TSM and Immortals did.
Prediction: Longzhu wins 3 - 1
SK Telecom T1 vs Misfits Gaming
This is normally a situation where I'd stick to my pre-tournament read on a team because it's usually more accurate than six games but this is one that we have to consider what Misfits have showed us. They aren't afraid of anyone. They have good plans, are executing well, and have a playstyle counter to what SKT has shown to fall weakness to. With that in mind I think this match ends up sort of like Misfits vs World Elite from week two where they can jump out to an early lead but just struggle to close against the highest level of defensive teams.Also worth noting is that SKT uses information better than any team in the history of League. They always have a great gameplan and with time to prepare are extremely tough to beat and for that reason I don't see Misfits taking a game here even if they get close in game one.
Prediction: SKT wins 3 - 0
Royal Never Give Up vs Fnatic
I think this match has the potential to go five if Fnatic show their week two form again. It is, however, a stylistic mismatch since RNG should, presumably, be able to jump out to a lead on this Fnatic squad but if you think about these teams they both play bot lane centric, both have weaker top laners and both have aggressive junglers that like to make things happen early. I'm going to give the edge to RNG simply due to player quality but I'm looking forward to watching Uzi vs Rekkles.
Prediction: Royal Never Give Up wins 3 - 1
World Elite vs Cloud 9
I'm looking forward to this one more than any of the other quarterfinals because I think Cloud 9 has roughly a 40% chance to win the series. World Elite showed at least one of their aces with the early game Caitlyn rotation strategy and Cloud 9 immediately adapted it. If you look at overall body of work Cloud 9 have shown a bit more stylistic versatility as World Elite had shown absolutely nothing ALL YEAR to make you think they could be that clean at executing an early game strategy like that (I know it's not that hard but still). It's probably what caught TSM so off guard. They probably didn't prepare for WE who so stubbornly stick to their late game scaling team fighting style to have an early game centric strategy prepared. I think C9 are at a disadvantage in player quality and team fighting quality but a stylistic advantage. The question will be how drastic are those gaps. I think patch 7.18 allows teams that aren't great at late game team fighting to be functional at it just due to the nature of itemization and champion picks right now so I think Cloud 9 can hang late and has more versatility and unpredictability otherwise. I'm betting Cloud 9 have something VERY SPICY cooked up for this series and I think they force five games but ultimately fall short to just better players. I hope I'm wrong. GO NA!!
Prediction: World Elite wins 3 - 2
I'll be back with semi's predictions when the time comes but I hope everyone enjoys this round!
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