Worlds 2014 Predictions - Knockout Stage

**** I'll be editing this as I get time to write it, for now my thoughts on the first quarterfinal match***

                Before I begin I'd like to quickly discuss some thoughts about the different regions, progress, and some general thoughts regarding group stage results as it's worth mentioning before we dive into predictions which can be rather polarizing:

-          We can now see how much infrastructure matters to the progress of the Western professional scene. The Western teams showed excellently this year taking multiple games off of top Korean teams and overall exceeding expectations.

-          While we all love international tournaments, you're seeing the benefits of league based play to create competition within a region to up the level of play. The primary example here is LMQ who also overachieved in groups this year taking games in the "group of death."

-          It's all fine and good that the West has progressed and while I do believe the gap has closed I think it's important to take a step back and look at things as a whole. Just because Western teams took games off the Koreans in group stages doesn't mean that they're now on an even playing field. Group stages in competitive gaming are often about having a good, generic, one-style-fits-all strategy that doesn't show your hand unless you have to so that you have hidden weapons/strengths for the knockout stage. The Korean league, OGN Champions, copies the World's format almost exactly. A 16-team point system group stage (best of 2, 2-0 is 3 points, 1-1 is 1 point, etc.), top two from each of four groups advance to a best of five playoff bracket. Korean teams rarely show much in group stages unless they have to and their true strength lies in versatility and adaptation in a best of five series. They do this three seasons a year while LCS is a significantly different format. In many ways they are built to win Worlds and will take shortcuts to get through group stages without revealing much. With this in mind, the Korean teams still went a combined 15 wins - 3 losses (16 wins if you count the tiebreak between Shield and C9) and for the most part dominated in the games that mattered. Just because Western teams managed to take some games in the relatively meaningless group stage (to the Koreans who are confident they'll advance) doesn't mean jack when it comes to the adaptation and depth of strategy necessary to win best of fives. All I'm saying is to have both realistic expectations as well as analysis before you jump on the "Those Koreans aren't that much better than us anymore!" bandwagon.

-          KABUM!!!!!!

Knockout Stage Predictions:

OMG vs Najin White Shield

Match ups:

Ggoing vs Save

                - The two best top laners in the entire tournament by a long shot. With that said, Save is arguably the best top laner on the planet and to me is just an edge above Ggoing from a gameplay perspective. Ggoing, however, has worlds stage experience, and has been playing absolutely out of his mind this tournament. The obvious but still impressive highlight of his tournament thus far was the marathon game between Fnatic and OMG where he went the entire 71 minutes without dying and made the game clinching play on a crafty teleport flank with Ryze. Both of these legendary top laners have the pedigree, results, and are widely considered the last remaining vanguards of the "carry" top laners. You could make an argument for either but I personally think Save has straight up embarrassed superior Korean competition and Ggoing will have his hands full with the challenge.  SLIGHT ADVANTAGE SAVE

 Lovelin vs Watch:

                - Watch has received a lot of criticism this tournament after raising his expectations to an absurd level with the best play I've ever seen from him in the Korean qualifier tournament for the third seed. He's still a solid jungler in a scene where he frequently has to compete with the likes of Dandy, Kakao, Spirit and many others. Watch has also been on the international stage before with Najin Black Sword and was a professional Brood War player before his career in League. While the criticism is real and often justified, I remind everyone once again that strength of competition matters A LOT. China has long been ridiculed for their lack of solid jungle play. ClearLove and Lovelin have long been considered the two best by a long shot in the region and both were usurped upon Insec's introduction to the region with Starhorn Royal Club. Lovelin is a special player. It's not easy to play at the highest professional level in two different roles. He also has world stage experience. I simply think Watch is the better jungler due to success against superior competition but his tendency to be inconsistent could provide a potential weakness for Shield. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE WATCH

Cool vs Ggoong:

                - This is the match up to keep your eye on! Cool is considered by many to be one of the premier players in the entire tournament and some even have him as the second best mid laner in this tournament. While I don't agree, you could make a pretty solid argument for this with consistently dominant showings in his region and an MVP award for his play in the LPL this Summer. The really interesting thing about this match up to me is that much like Dade vs Hai, there is quite a bit of overlap in champion pools. Both players top champions include Yasuo, Zed, Ahri, and Orianna which leads me to believe that there will either be a lot of competition over this pool (the Zed and Yasuo inparticular) or a lot of counterpicking due to familiarity with match ups. On the surface I feel that most people give the advantage to Cool simply because his name commands a lot of respect but I'm again going to reference strength of competition and give Ggoong the slight edge seeing as he frequently plays against the likes of Faker, Dade, Pawn, Rookie, and other premier Korean mid laners while Cool has significantly less competition within his region (that's not to say he doesn't have any).  SLIGHT ADVANTAGE GGOONG

San/Cloud vs Zefa/Gorilla

                - The battle of inconsistent bot lanes! The strength of both Shield and OMG is primarily derived from their solo lane and junglers. Historically the bot lanes for both teams have been the biggest question marks and both tend to play a passive, safe style to cause the least amount of damage while their solo lanes do the heavy lifting. After an abysmal group stage performance by Dada777, OMG has opted to replace him with Cloud. As a player Cloud prefers to play more aggressive support champions like Thresh, Sona, and Leona but I've never seen him on champions other than these so I'm not entirely sure how well he plays the current meta support picks like Janna and Nami. In my personal opinion, barring an massive synergy problem, this substitution can only be an upgrade. Dada777 is widely considered one of the worst professional players on any of the Chinese teams and he honestly had no business being in this world championship in the opinions of many. That being said, Gorilla is one of the top support players in the tournament and if Shield is able to get Zefa on his best champions like Corki and Lucian then I can't see this ever going in favor of OMG. It becomes slightly closer with Cloud replacing Dada777 but Gorilla is a world class support player and creates the biggest mismatch in this match up even with Cloud playing now.                               SLIGHT ADVANTAGE ZEFA/GORILLA

Picks and Bans:

               There is a lot of overlap in champion pools between these two teams and much like Samsung Blue vs Cloud 9 I expect some interesting drafts. Both teams have dominant solo laners that will undoubtedly want premium champions for their match ups. However, while in most cases I feel the blue side has an advantage in the draft in situations like this, I feel that the counter play options are there for Cool and Ggoong as well as Ggoing and Save and I fully expect a lot of the draft to be focused around this. Expect a high priority or ban to be placed on Zed and possibly Yasuo as well. I wouldn't be surprised if this game turns into Ahri vs Orianna or Zilean in the mid lane the majority of this series. The Ryze pick will also be highly contested as many people consider Save's Ryze to be the absolute best right now, Expect the Ryze to be first picked or banned. Personally though I feel that Shield gains a huge edge in the draft with their pocket Kassadin pick. Save's top lane Kassadin has proved time and again to be effective even in seemingly terrible match ups. This leaves OMG's hands tied in the draft as they'll be forced into playing or banning Ryze to take the pick from Save and either banning or finding some way to deal with Save's Kassadin pick. So from purple side I feel that OMG MUST BAN Ryze which gives Shield a lot of leverage to take either Lee Sin, Thresh, Zed, Yasuo, Zilean, Lucian, or Tristana. This flex pick Kassadin (even though it's usually top lane for Shield) is going to cause of lot of problems for OMG during the draft. I also feel that Shields ability to play the Twitch/Kayle combo successfully provides another wrinkle for OMG to deal with. The combination of this pocket pick, overlapping champion pools, and Shields ability a variety of comps including their unique 3 or 4 carry skirmish comps that excel at separating traditional AoE comps will provide an edge to Shield in the draft.  ADVANTAGE WHITE SHIELD

Overall Prediction:         NAJIN WHITE SHIELD 3 - 1 

             I feel that this will be a relatively close series but over in four games. Shield are very good at tooling teams around the map and winning with minion wave management and a team like OMG hasn't had to really deal with that in the LPL (closest would be LDG). If you consider that superior map management alone can win Shield the game even when they're out drafted I just can't see OMG taking three games off of Shield even if they're not as solid as they were during their qualifier run. Shield also has the advantage in the draft with the ability to play a variety of compositions. Their patented divide and conquer comp with double, and sometimes triple, assassins plus Janna, Nami, or Thresh excels at separating traditional team fighting compositions into smaller, more digestible pieces with the added bonus of split push possibilities. Shield has also shown the ability to run a successful Kayle + Twitch combination which I've yet to see OMG cleanly execute. OMG do have an incredible amount of individual skill in their solo lanes and I could see their brutish Chinese play style powering through the sometimes inconsistent Shield. Shield is just the better team here folks. They're more versatile and I again reference the strength of competition in Korea but they are the most mortal of the Korean teams in this tournament and are the most inconsistent. With time to research, inconsistencies in Shield's game, and OMG's high skill ceiling, I could see them snowballing one and possibly two games to a victory but I can't justify giving them the series win.

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Edward Gaming vs Starhorn Royal Club

Match ups:

Koro vs Cola

                - Admittedly I haven't watched nearly as much Chinese league as some experts but from watching playoff performances of both EDG and SHRC in the last two splits I can evaluate that the Chinese top lane meta is dominated by Ryze and Irelia (and Maoki to a lesser extent because he's banned frequently). Because of this I often consider the top players on these champions similar to how I do for other roles. I personally don't know who the better top laner is, only that they both pale in comparison to Ggoing. Koro has impressed from time to time, Cola really hasn't to me. I'm going to call this a wash but it might be slightly in favor of Koro. I could be wrong. NO ADVANTAGE

Clearlove vs Insec:

                - This goes to Insec. Clearlove is known for passively farming and there are very few LPL junglers that punish that, Insec does. Clearlove is, however, much less likely to make a game ending error. ADVANTAGE INSEC

U(nstoppable) vs Corn:

                - .U has played 7 different champions ranging from utility mids like Orianna and Zilean, to assassins like Zed and Kassadin, and even a Jayce pick. He's shown how deep his champion pool can be but has been known, much like his jungler Clearlove, to play much too passively and not take advantages when given to him. U is closer to a traditional mage player. Corn, while not the opposite, is closer to the opposite end of the spectrum. He tends to roam a lot more with Insec and try to get his world renowned bottom lane going. He prefers to play assassins and lane bullies like Yasuo, Fizz, and Syndra but has also shown a willingness to adapt to his teams needs playing Orianna to a 3 - 0 record as well as Zilean. Both are role players for their teams and while U has been touted as an incredibly gifted mechanical player he has yet to really show me that in this tournament. When it looks like a tie I tend to give the advantage to the play maker and that's Corn.  SLIGHT ADVANTAGE CORN

NaMei/Fzzf vs Uzi/Zero

                - Historically NaMei has been the only Chinese ADC to be able to bend but not break to Uzi's incredibly aggressive laning phase but make no mistake, this is going to be a battle that could define this entire series. I completely expect lane swaps to happen and for EDG to get NaMei on a champion that will allow him to abuse his superior positioning and efficiency in the mid and late game team fights. That being said, Uzi has proven time and time again to outplay even the worlds best. Unlike the mid lane, I tend to give the advantage to better positional play and decision making in the ADC position but let's be real here, this is going to be close to even. NO ADVANTAGE

Picks and Bans:

                In their previous series and matchups in LPL, EDG has always seemed to have the perfect solution to solve SHRC's aggression. I expect Maoki bans in every game for purple side as both Cola and Koro are highly proficient on the tree. This will make the top lane a battle of Ryze vs Irelia (and maybe Lulu) until somebody takes one of these picks away with a ban. Zilean bans will likely be another staple of purple side leaving the final ban choice between something like Tristana, Lucian, Alistar, and Yasuo. To me this series is going to be about baiting a pick and counter picking. That might be baiting the Tristana and taking a Corki or Lucian, or perhaps Alistar and taking a niche top laner like Swain or Mundo.  In other words, whoever breaks serve during the drafting phase is going to win. To me that's EDG. They've shown time and time again that they can more effectively use their depth of champion pools to gain an edge in the draft against other Chinese teams.   ADVANTAGE EDWARD GAMING

Overall Prediction:         Edward Gaming 3 - 2

              This is by far the closest quarterfinal match up we have this year. These teams have played each other a number of times in their own region with EDG coming out on top most of the time. Consistently the stronger strategic team and significantly more patient than SHRC, EDGs advantage has shown in all of their playoff series where they've seemingly had SHRC's number. You could pick this either way. I feel that it's roughly 55-45 in favor of Edward Gaming due to their historical dominance of Starhorn Royal Club. The primary argument against EDG is that they haven't looked as solid as people assumed they were but take a step back and remind yourself that many people considered EDG the 3rd or 4th best team in this tournament before it started. They've gone on record saying that they didn't practice for group stages or research for groups at all and were looking blindly forward and preparing for their possible quarterfinal match ups. Combined with the fact that they've now had a couple weeks to digest their mistakes and refocus I just can't see them losing this series. But I do think it will be close and go to 5 games. I also feel that it's entirely possible that Royal Club rides their high energy group B performance and uses that momentum to take this series but I'm taking Edward Gaming to win this in 5 hard fought games.
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Samsung Blue vs Cloud 9

Match ups:

Acorn vs Balls

                - While I feel very strongly that Acorn is severely underrated Balls is one of the better top laners in this tournament as well and has a champion pool that is in a really good spot right now, Acorn has just accomplished so much more in a competitive region. He is also arguably the best top laner on the planet at managing lane swaps correctly. You just don't see him decide incorrectly on those kinds of decisions. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE ACORN

Spirit vs Meteos:

                - This is pretty even but again just quality of competition I give the edge to Spirit. The Rengar pick will prove problematic to Cloud 9 and it's not something NA teams have had success playing. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE SPIRIT

Dade vs Hai:

                - There is a lot of champion overlap here but lets face facts. Dade is the best mid laner and possibly the best player in this tournament. Multi-OGN Champions tournament winner, veteran, and most importantly, a man on a mission to prove that last year's humiliating early defeat is not what his legacy will be. MAJOR ADVANTAGE DADE

Deft/Heart vs Sneaky/Lemon

                - One of the top bot lanes on the planet in Deft and Hear get to face off against one of the West's most consistent performing duos in Sneaky and Lemon. Sneaky has been on the rise and performing excellently, improving since his spring split. Deft, while having a rough start to the tournament righted the ship and now looks just as good as he always does. Contributing 44%+ of his teams total damage to champions, the focus of Blue is squarely on Deft and he often delivers. For what it's worth I feel that Heart outclasses Lemon as well, but not by a lot. ADVANTAGE DEFT/HEART

Picks and Bans:

                To me, there are a few ways this can go. It's either going to be Hai and Dade fighting for their premium champions (Zed and Yasuo) or Blue building around the Rengar pick. Whether Cloud 9 chooses to ban Lee and Rengar will determine how the rest of the draft shapes out. I feel their best bet is to take out the Rengar and Lee and let Dade first pick one of his premium champs blind as he always does and secure a strong bottom lane for Sneaky and Lemon. I feel like Meteos can come close to matching Spirit and Balls to Acorn so if you can keep the bot lane close to even there is a slight chance for Cloud 9 to take a game ADVANTAGE SAMSUNG BLUE

Overall Prediction:         Samsung Blue wins 3 - 1

               Blue is just the better team. Hell you could make an argument saying that they're the best team in this tournament (I feel they're 2nd). With that being said, I feel like Cloud 9 will take a game. Blue suffers from early game issues and Cloud 9 does an exceptional job at pushing leads to a strong finish. Their solid early game scripts and drafting will do them good in the slow starting Blue. I also feel that Cloud 9 is one of the few teams that could potentially tool Blue around the map and are intelligent enough with these types of tactics to steal a game if straight up fights or an early game lead aren't enough against the resilient Blue. If they take a game there is a strong chance it will be game 2 (or the first game they get blue side).

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Samsung White vs Team Solo Mid

Match ups:

Looper vs Dyrus

                - Looper is seldom talked about due to the star power on the rest of his team's roster but he has quietly become one of the world's best top laners. Let's not forget that just one year ago he was called upon to replace Homme for the Season 3 World Championship and was arguably the only positive thing to come from an otherwise disastrous and embarrassing performance from then Samsung Ozone. Hailed as the best user of teleport he quietly ekes out advantages without ever having to make the huge outplay. Dyrus has performed admirably this tournament and far beyond the expectations of many including myself. My gut tells me that Looper is a far superior player but both of these guys tend to just role play for their respective teams. I could see this being relatively even if they do end up in a standard one on one lane. If there are swaps however I give a large edge to Looper who has shown a great deal of success in management of these scenarios. I fully expect there to be a lot of lane swaps to hide WildTurtle and Lustboy from the legendary Imp and Mata which leads me to believe that Looper has the edge here even if individually they're similar. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE LOOPER

Dandy vs Amazing:

                - For my money, this is the single biggest disparity between two players in the same role in the entire knockout stage. Dandy is by far the best jungler in this tournament and I don't think it's even close. He's in a tier all his own. Amazing was possibly the worst jungler in his group and one of the worst of the 16 attending teams. Dandy possesses a massive champion pool with legendary Lee Sin and Rengar play and proficiency on a number of other champions as he showed in group stages with an uncharacteristic Jarvan pick. Amazing has an extremely narrow champion pool of Lee Sin and Elise followed by a massive drop off to his emergency Nunu pick and whatever else he has been working on. Amazing is predictable and Dandy has made a career on abusing predictable jungle players. It would take a miracle for TSM to overcome the gap between these two players alone in a best of five. SEVERE ADVANTAGE DANDY

Pawn vs Bjergsen:

                - Pawn is an extremely gifted mechanical player that does meticulous research on his opponents. He's one of the only players to consistently score solo kills on Faker earning him the name "Faker-Killer." While SS White had an easy group stage, Pawn still scored wins on 6 different champions including Katarina. His Fizz and Yasuo are ban worthy but he also plays an excellently on Zed, Orianna, Zilean (recently), and Talon. He also has a pocket Jayce pick that we haven't seen yet at this year's Worlds. Bjergsen has performed very well in all of TSM's games including their losses. He is a world class mid laner for sure but I'm not quite he's better than Pawn as a lot of people think. There is a lot of overlap in the champion pools here but Pawn is excellent at shutting down world class mid lane competition (Faker, Dade, Ggong) and I could see him simply picking Orianna or Zilean as a means to maintain control and let the rest of his team win. With Bjergsen having to worry about shot calling and his jungler and bot lane being completely outplayed, I can't see him having the best of games here. ADVANTAGE PAWN

Imp/Mata vs Turtle/Lustboy

                - The best bot lane in the world vs a weak, passive laning duo... This is ALMOST as big a disparity as the Dandy vs Amazing duel. Lustboy has performed very well recently in NA and here at Worlds and while Turtle has had his moments, he just isn't a world class AD carry. This is going to be a stomping if matched up 2 v 2. If TSM does decide to lane swap then they'll likely have to ban Imp's Twitch to avoid giving him free farm. There is just no profitable situation here for TSM.  SEVERE ADVANTAGE IMP/MATA

Picks and Bans:

                The major focus is going to be on Lee Sin because, as we've seen recently, Amazing is a non-factor on any other champion with the exception of Elise and a Nunu that I don't quite believe in after a few successful playoff games. Unfortunately for TSM this cripples their versatility in the draft as they have to face arguably the best Lee Sin player on the planet. But TSM's troubles don't stop there. If you consider that in patch 4.14 Alistair is a must-ban as well, you're already down to a single ban to deal with the entirety of White's massive champion pool from the purple side (assuming they're there the majority of the series). With Zilean, Maoki, Ryze, Tristana, Rumble, Twitch, and many other power picks available the options are extremely limited for TSM. I honestly have no idea what TSM is going to come up with for their draft. Samsung White is a team with so many threats, incredible compositional depth, and remarkable strategic versatility. TSM's best bet is to ban out a single player and leave multiple power picks open to secure two of them and hope to snowball off of that. Maybe ban out Dandy's Lee Sin and Rengar and try to get Elise for Amazing? That's not exactly an ideal situation either. White could honestly choose to let Amazing have what he wants and it would still be a mountain for him to climb against Dandy. Turtle pretty much has to get Lucian or Tristana as he's proven unexciting on others. Lustboy will be fighting for his Nami, Janna, and Braum with Mata who also plays those champions. And I doubt Samsung is going to give Dyrus his Rumble but if they do they're be more than willing to lane swap their more than likely un-banned Twitch to a free farm lane while completely denying Dyrus (Rumble is awful in 2v1s). Outside of some ridiculous cheese picks or a monumental error by White this series is, in many ways, over before we even enter the Rift. SEVERE ADVANTAGE SAMSUNG WHITE

Overall Prediction:         Samsung White wins 3 - 0

                Not only is Samsung White the best team in the world (IMO), but they're also a ridiculously bad match up for TSM specifically. If you were to look at the champion pools alone, completely disregarding individual skill and competitive history, this match would already be an uphill battle for TSM. Severe mismatches in the jungle and bottom lane as well as a vulnerable, one dimensional pick/ban phase make this series borderline unwinnable for TSM. One of the other major weaknesses TSM has is their inability to adapt on the fly and with the strategic versatility and depth that Samsung White possesses as well as their insanely high level of individual outplay potential I could see this 3 - 0 being over in under 75 minutes of game time. As a matter of fact, I'm so confident that White completely embarrasses TSM that I've made a few wagers on that under 75 minute number. Sorry NA but even Baylife and apple pie couldn't save you from this one. It's going to be a biblical beat down for the ages.