Betting: July 13th (LCK, LPL, NA LCS, LEC)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 5 Day 4

These odds are too out of range to do anything with except include in parlays. I could understand a bet on Jin Air +1.5 or the exact Sandbox 2-1 at these numbers but I'm just going to pass. Sandbox should win this and I'd think after an embarassing loss to DAMWON that they'll be looking for someone to stomp on to feel better. That said, you could argue that they spent the majority of their prep time on the DAMWON match and didn't look at Jin Air as much. It's been a couple of days so I don't think that's the case and even if it was I don't trust Jin Air to even be good enough to take advantage. The other pro-Jin Air angle is that if you think Sandbox don't correct their egregious draft approach based on the results of the DAMWON match then I actually love a Jin Air bet here.

No wager

I feel like I should be on a side here but truthfully I don't know what to expect out of this match. Kingzone looked sluggish in game one but then figured it out and slammed the door shut while DAMWON just completely ran over a Sandbox team with a neat game one draft and took advantage of an awful game two draft by Sandbox. 

DAMWON, while still clumsy at times, are looking more improved by the day. Earlier in the year we took DAMWON to beat Kingzone on the basis of their solo laners presenting a unique problem for Kingzone to solve and while that wasn't the entire reason they won that match it did play a role. I don't think anything has changed here so the question is whether or not we like these numbers. My initial thought was that I couldn't say no to Kingzone being an underdog against more or less anybody but DAMWON are firing on all cylinders right now and that's a pretty hard thing to ignore. I tend to zig when everyone is zagging because that's where the value is but I'm not going to deny DAMWON's momentum and quality of play right now. Do I think they were gifted a win by Sandbox in game two? Yes. Does that mean they didn't look good at Rift Rivals, before Rift Rivals, and do exactly what you're supposed to do when a team hands you a free win like Sandbox did? No. DAMWON are the real deal and I think taking them here isn't necessarily a slight against Kingzone as much as it is an endorsement. This is a difficult stylistic matchup for Kingzone just like it was the first time around and I don't think DAMWON was playing nearly as well then as they are now. 

This is one of the few times I'm going to ride a hype train but I think it's deserved. Kingzone aren't as equipped as teams like Griffin, SKT, Afreeca, and honestly, despite the loss, Sandbox to combat what DAMWON brings to the table with their solo lane talent. For as impressive as Rascal, Cuzz, and Naehyun have been this split I think they're just outmatched here and it's going to be a tough thing to overcome without some creativity.

Moneyline: DAMWON -156 (3 units)

Parlay (2): Sandbox -1.5 + DAM ML @ +102 (2.5 units)

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LPL Summer 2019 - Week 6 Day 2

If you believe in Rift Rivals hangovers the Chinese teams had to travel but did get some extra time off compared to the LCK. FunPlus and Invictus both played in the tournament and I'd say played well regardless of the results. Vici and OMG look like two of the worst teams in the league. I think it's a totally fine spot to bet the dogs to take a game here but I'll be passing over than a very small 0.1 unit wager on the "double hangover" parlay. I don't hate the individual +1.5's either but I'm going to pass on that.

"Hangover" Parlay (2): Vici +1.5 + OMG +1.5 @ +608 (0.1 unit)

"New Years Day Hangover" Parlay (2): Vici ML + OMG ML @ +3601 (0.1 unit)

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LEC Summer 2019 - Week 4 Day 2

I didn't really have any selections for Europe coming off the break. I'm having a hard time getting a read with so much down time but I tend to like underdogs with extra time. Usually bad teams can cover more ground then mediocre or good teams can in the same amount of time just by nature of amount of improvement that can be made. I like Rogue, Excel, and Splyce quite a bit and even Schalke though not as much. All of these will be half unit wagers and a quarter unit on Schalke. I don't actually think these odds are even that far off but I think the combination of time off and potential lessons learned from internatinoal film could perhaps help these underdogs in a best of one in the first week back.

Moneyline: Excel +221 (0.5 units)

Moneyline: Rogue +206 (0.5 units)

Moneyline: Schalke +269 (0.25 units)

Moneyline: Splyce +212 (0.5 units)

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NA LCS Summer 2019 - Week 6 Day 1

I've hammered Liquid already at -189 for one unit more than my best of one limit up to 4 units. Coming off of a rough week last week I think Liquid have learned their lessons and while they might not change, they'll certainly adjust. CLG have looked really solid and clean but the style and form they've played this season isn't  one that I think punishes how Liquid want to play. I also think Liquid are just way better than the rest of NA and anytime we can get them at a remotely bettable number we're just going to fire on it.

Moneyline: Liquid -189 (4 units)

The other game on this slate that I absolutely love is FlyQuest +134 vs Golden Guardians. Not only are we likely getting the academy bot lane of FBI and Huhi again but I just think these teams are kind of on opposite trajectories and this line should be closer to even. It's not that FBI and Huhi were bad but I love the spot for FlyQuest here and this should likely be even money instead of this. I'm firing a best of one max three units on FlyQuest here. They might not make playoffs but they'll be competitive the rest of the split, this team has too much pride and I think they're trending up while Golden Guardians are sort of floundering.

Moneyline: FlyQuest +134 (3 units)

Betting: July 12th (LCK, LPL)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 5 Day 3

This is exactly the kind of spot the Gen.G blow me out so it should be noted that my track record against this team is sketchy. It comes with a Rift Rivals "hangover" potentially baked in here. Yesterday I was punished badly for betting narrative. Sandbox had the week off to plan for this match against DAMWON and had an uncharacteristically bad read especially in the game two draft where they selected Olaf late after selecting losing solo lanes. Game one was forgivable, DAMWON had a creative flex situation prepared and you can't expect everything but how Sandbox proceeded in game two, unless you think they were just shell-shocked from game one's draft, gave a glimpse into their coaching staff's draft priorities and I'm not a huge fan of it. Maybe they learn but I digress, this isn't about them. 

It wouldn't surprisem to see Gen.G take a game here at all but I'd be lying if I said that's what we should bet. For my money, Gen.G are the most stubborn professional team in any of the major region leagues. They simply DO NOT CARE what people think or what they're supposed to do. Sometimes that has served them well but in a metagame like this one they aren't going to be able to get away with the kind of Gangplank/Azir scaling obsession they have. Sure there is a chance Griffin do what Kingzone did in their first game back against KT and agree to a scaling gentlemen's handshake. After all that's exactly what all the good teams are doing against KT but Gen.G aren't KT. KT almost reliably punt leads while Gen.G just hand the lead over and hope to outsmart you late. Logic says that good, versatile teams like Griffin should see this and exploit the glaring weakness and attack early. 

For this reason, against every ounce of my gut feeling, mostly from bad tastes left in my mouth from Gen.G over the past few years, I'm slamming the Griffin 2-0 here. Gen.G are boring, predictable, and have shown that even with time off to prepare new ideas and strategies they're stubborn to a fault in their addiction to scaling. There's simply no way Griffin allow this to happen. Just as a thought experiment I'll list the things that I do have concerns about that would prevent this from happening:

- Griffin become fascinated with an FunPlus Phoenix style cheese comp to avoid laning and just can't exceute it with limited practice. 

- Griffin, with a lack of time to prepare, just stick to their win lane, win game approach and go even agaisnt scaling. (it should be noted that I think Griffin probably still win this because they have superior laners but still...)

- Gen.G for the first time in who knows how long actually come up with something fresh and creative and blow my bankroll out of the water like they've been known to do.

Spread: Griffin -1.5 @ -200 (5.5 units BOOK MAX)

O/U: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -130 (1 unit)

O/U: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -130 (1 unit)

The Telecom War hasn't had quite the luster that it has historically with the past few being absolute routes. If you watched KT's series against Kingzone there was visible frustration from Smeb and others after the match was over. KT still struggle to close games. They have a knack for finding ways to lose. SK Telecom on the otherhand looked clean and dominant, albeit against an awful Hanwha Life squad. SKT had a great Rift Rivals performance and look poised for a strong second half run. As I mentioned before Wednesday mornings matches, SKT are in no position to punt even individual games after their abysmal start. With a competitive middle of the table that looks to include Sandbox and Afreeca the 5th playoff seed isn't an automatic lock for anybody so SKT need to take care of business in these types of scenarios. 

I'm convinced by SKT's resurgence and KT's lack of ability to close even with a lead that I'm going to fire heavy on the SKT 2-0 as well. I know it's a recipe for disaster but SKT look like they've finally figured out that they can't just let teams run them over early. We have the added bonus of in that rare situation that KT actually get a sizeable early game lead they're just as likely as anyone to punt it. I also think that after seeing Kingzone drop a game to KT with a greedy draft that SKT won't make the same mistake. I feel really confident SKT sweep this. As sad as it is to say KT are a bad team with some good players and in Korea that isn't enough to do anything other than avoid last place. After punting against Kingzone, KT honestly looked defeated and a little tilted and it wouldn't surprise me to see a lethargic performance here.  To be clear, I'm not betting the narrative just because I'm mentioning it, I'm betting the recent film I've seen. SKT SHOULD run this series over.

Spread: SK Telecom -1.5 maps @ +102 (2.5 units BOOK MAX)

Prop: Exact SKT 2-0 @ -119 (2.5 units)

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I thought it was rather interesting as I looked at it but coming off the break during the Spring split (Jan 30th-Feb 15th, albeit for a holiday), the LPL opened that week with SIX 2-0 matches in a row and THIRTEEN of the EIGHTEEN matches that week ending in 2-0 sweeps one way or the other. The difference was that that was for a holiday with a lot of players likely spending at least some time away but I thought it was worth noting. 

LPL Summer 2019 - Week 6 Day 1

It's going to sound a bit whacky but I actually thought JDG looked better than I thought they would at Rift Rivals. That doesn't mean I think this team is good just that they exceeded my low expectations. So unlike Korea, China had to travel for Rift Rivals so the "hangover" narrative perhaps holds a little more weight. Team WE looked like a team in shambles with all the off the Rift drama going on but they managed to steal a game from TOP before the break and before that 2-0 an EDG team that apparently didn't show up to play League of Legends with their assbackwards drafts and starting Hope on the day to play what I would argue was his worst performance ever. A free win but hey, credit for taking what EDG handed you. I was really hoping we'd get plus odds on Team WE to take a game here. I like the spot quite a bit but unless this line gets down closer to 100 I'm just going to pass this game for a side but I am going to fire a unit on the OVER 2.5 maps at a surprising +128 number. I expect this to be a sloppy, fiesta type of a series and I'm willing to put a small wager on it going to three games. 

Prop: OVER 2.5 maps played @ +128 (1 unit)

This is an interesting one. Both of these teams have been rather disappointing to me but one much more so than the other and that's Dominus. I've said it a lot this season but Dominus look like a team without a leader. They actually remind me a bit of a less creative version of DAMWON. Very good players but with not a lot of direction. DAMWON have since cured many, but not all, of those problems while Dominus are still struggling. BiliBili are the opposite. They know who they are, they're disciplined and have strong leaders in ADD and Kuro dictating how they want games to be played. 

This feels like a spot for BiliBili to "get right." It's not that they've necessarily been bad this season. They've been beating the bad teams. They've dropped games in the process but they have beaten all the teams I'd consider worse than them. I think the disappointment comes in that I expected them to take a step forward and compete against the elite teams but they've struggled to do that so far. BiliBili should take care of business here but these odds, plus the week off, plus the fact that the LPL is a bit wild and I think Dominus are likely a little better than their record has me a bit tame on this wager. I'm taking the BiliBili sweep for just a unit.

Spread: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ +100 (1 unit)

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LEC Summer 2019 - Week 4 Day 1:

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Parlays:

Parlay (2): GRF -1.5 + SKT -1.5 @ +203 (2 units)

Betting: July 11th (LCK)

LCK Summer - Week 5 Day 2

This is a fascinating matchup! DAMWON had an outstanding performance at Rift Rivals and Sandbox have won six series in a row heading into the week off. Normally I'd say this kind of break kills the momentum but after facing three of the four weakest teams in the league for their most recent three matches I think Sandbox have a higher chance at just being caught off guard by a good team rather than being simply "due for a loss." Jin Air, Gen.G and KT Rolster aren't exactly world beaters. 

Tough game to cap here. On one hand you have the "hangover" factor for DAMWON which is a combination of lack of preparation on their part AND perhaps some extra preparation by Sandbox. This is impactful. However on the other you could argue DAMWON are the stronger team overall. Personally I don't believe that narrative like a lot of people do. Sandbox have impressed me and while that sounds stupid to say about the current second place team they really have shown the ability to elevate against good teams even taking a series from Griffin handing them two of their three game losses on the season. This team is really good! 

I think Sandbox might not be due for as much regression as people think but I do think they're going to have some losses here and it wouldn't surprise me to see this be one of them. I was hoping we'd get better odds on this but we didn't so we're just going to stick to the OVER 2.5 maps played for a couple units. I think this should be a close series that could go either way. There's a chance we get blown out by a flat performance by DAMWON in their first match back but I think they'll be game especially after seeing Kingzone punt a game to KT Rolster yesterday. 

Prop: OVER 2.5 maps played @ +100 (2.5 units)

UPDATE

Moneyline: Sandbox -128 (2 units)

Prop: Exact Sandbox 2-1 @ +211

More I've thought about it I think with two relatively evenly matched teams I'm going to go with Sandbox having an entire week to prepare for this matchup especially because they have Jin Air on Saturday and I'm sure they spent the majority of their time prepping for this match.

Neither of these teams went to Rift Rivals and have had a full week to prepare for one another. I think a lot of people are going to be on Jin Air +1.5 here citing the extra week of preparation. Typically I'd agree because a week of extra prep for a bad team allows them to improve much more than a good team but Jin Air are also incredibly bad and Afreeca aren't coming in off of a winning streak or anything. In fact Afreeca have a showdown with Griffin later this week. You could argue maybe that Afreeca might be looking forward to that but with the extra time to prepare I think it's ample for both. Also worth considering is SKT look primed for a second half run after a good performance at Rift Rivals which means Afreeca are going to have to step it up if they want a playoff spot. Every game is going to count.

Given the circumstances I don't think Afreeca will be sleeping on Jin Air even with a match against Griffin coming up later this week. I think Afreeca take care of business here.

Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ -196 (5.5 units BOOK MAX)

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Parlays:

Parlay (2): DAM/SAN OVER 2.5 maps + Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +196 (1.5 units)

Parlay (3): DAM/SAN OVER 2.5 maps + Afreeca -1.5 + Griffin -1.5 @ +344 (1 unit)

Betting: July 10th (LCK)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 5 Day 1

Korea looked excellent at Rift Rivals. I've been trying to tell everyone that the region has been slowly and steadily making adaptations but even I didn't expect them to perform that well. I don't think there will be as much of a tournament hangover since it took place in Korea and because SKT specifically need the wins right now but we'll talk about that in a bit. Today is a MASSIVE potential day and we have not one but TWO PICKS OF THE WEEK IN ONE DAY!!

After MSI we saw a bit of a hangover from the Korean teams upon their return home with some very generalized and boring preparation and slightly less sharp play resulting in a couple sloppy losses, or in SKT's cast a pseudo meltdown. The difference this time around is that Rift Rivals Asia took place in Korea so there isn't the matter of jet lag. Also Korea looked exceptional at this tournament taking down the LPL in the exhibition. Kingzone were perhaps the most impressive of the bunch defeating the formidable FunPlus Phoenix in the group stage. 

Now KT Rolster have had plenty of time to prepare and while I expect this team to improve in much the same way I expected FlyQuest to in NA, it still doesn't necessarily make them a great team just one that was underperforming. The difference is that I just think KT isn't good. This team STILL hasn't fixed their biggest fundamental problem which is closing games and they've done absolutely nothing to make adaptations for this weakness. Kingzone should be able to take care of this and while it wouldn't surprise me to see KT steal a game here I'm not going to say no to firing heavy at these odds. Kingzone look like a world class team and while I think they'll drop games here and there this team has to be feeling tremendously confident coming off of this tournament and got to face some competition that is vastly superior to KT Rolster. I'm going the max 3.5 units on the spread at -122 and even adding on another 2.5 units to the 2-0 at far worse odds for a grand total of a 6 unit early pick of the week.

Spread: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ -122 (3.5 units BOOK MAX)

Prop: Exact Kingzone 2-0 @ -152 (2.5 units)

Remarkably similar situations for both SKT and Kingzone coming off of great performances at Rift Rivals to face bottom half teams in their first game back. SKT and Kingzone are not teams that I expect to have let down games. They're what I like to call "tryhard" teams. You could argue SKT got their tournament buff and might come back or try subs or something but I think SKT are going to mean business here as they push for a playoff spot after their abysmal start. SKT looked close to full form at Rift Rivals with Faker looking as confident as ever and the full lineup working well together. I also liked their drafts a lot more at this tournament and I think this patch works a lot better for them than any other this year. Hanwha are bad. There isn't a whole lot more to say about that and while you could say Lava has had his moments this season he's not up to in the zone Faker, very few are. 

Simply put this is a slam dunk especially because unlike Kingzone, SKT absolutely need to start winning games to make a push for playoffs to secure enough circuit points to guarentee a worlds berth. We're firing the exact same play on the exact same odds for two situations I think are remarkably similar. I'm slightly more confident in the SKT play but they're both locks to me.

Spread: SK Telecom -1.5 maps @ -122 (3.5 units BOOK MAX)

Prop: SK Telecom 2-0 @ -152 (2.5 units)

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Parlays:

With two book max plays you can expect me to be heavy on parlay exposure as well. This day has absolutely massive potential for us. There are a TON of heavy heavy favorites facing bad teams this week and while the "classic" situation of let down games looks like a real possibility we're actually going to roll the dice on Invictus as well since they're so far behind in the playoff race just like SKT and finally have their full roster back together.

Parlay (2): Kingzone -1.5 + SKT -1.5 @ +231 (2 units)

Parlay (3): Kingzone -1.5 + SKT -1.5 + Afreeca -1.5 vs Jin Air @ +400 (1.5 units)

Parlay (4): Kingzone -1.5 + SKT -1.5 + Afreeca -1.5 + Griffin -1.5 @ +621 (0.5 units)

"Long Week" Parlay (6):

Kingzone -1.5 + SKT -1.5 + Afreeca -1.5 + Griffin -1.5 + FunPlus -1.5 + Invictus -1.5 

@ +1443 (0.5 units) 

Betting: July 7th (NA LCS, Rift Rivals Asia Day 4)

Rift Rivals Asia - Day 4

This has been a surprisingly entertaining tournament outside of Saturday mornings smashing of the VCS/LMS. The LCK and LPL have both brought it more than I thought they would. I'm going with the LCK here for a few reasons. I think top to bottom they've looked a lot cleaner and more disciplined. Their execution has also been excellent. DAMWON are perhaps looking like the weak link but their individual players are playing so well that even when they misplay I'm always confident in them to win. Korea looks like they're back and I don't just want to declare that based on this tournament but watching the region as intently as anybody I know the younger teams have done wonders for the development of every team in the region. They've also learned from the struggles of the past year of international play and aren't just rolling over early against international foes.

To me this mostly boils down to JDG just being the weakest team by a good margain of the eight teams here and that I don't think IG outclass everyone. I think Griffin and IG look like the two best teams but I think either could win. To help visualize this I'll just power rank the level I have these teams at specifically for this tournament going into this match (this doesn't mean I necessarily believe this to be true the rest of the year):

1) Griffin

2) Invictus

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3) FunPlus

4) Kingzone

5) SK Telecom

6) DAMWON

7) TOP eSports

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8) JDG

I think the teams in the middle of the pack can all beat each other but I'd generally say this is how I'd rank these teams right now meaning I think only two of the LPL representatives should be favored over any non-Griffin LCK team. For this reason I'm going with the LCK. Would it surprise me to see the LPL win this? Not particularly, these are all great teams (besides JDG). Picture this series as a best of five with the LCK getting spotted a game to start.

Moneyline: LCK -147 (3 units)

Spread: LCK -1.5 maps @ +137 (1.5 units)

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NA LCS - Week 5 Day 2

I'm betting basically anything remotely close against Echo Fox the rest of the way. This team is just lost. I didn't even think FlyQuest looked particularly great (we'll get back to that later) but Echo Fox are just in shambles. I'm actually going to lay -244 here (this line has moved down for some reason). I don't think GG are particularly great either but they're typically pretty smart so I think their macro alone could probably get there. Regardless of the starting bottom lane for GGs I'm firing here.

Moneyline: Golden Guardians -244 (3 units)

Clutch have looked just ok. Sometimes good, sometimes bad. They're not Echo Fox but this team is definitely not good either. Cloud 9 looked really sharp yesterday and completely abused a Team Liquid's arrogance in not taking cleanse against Veigar. Kumo also looked pretty good, although I'd argue not nearly as good as the casters hyped him up to look. The heavy lifting was done by Nisqy and Svenskeren yesterday. I think if Cloud 9 can look look even a fraction as clean and crisp as they did yesterday against Liquid they'll have an easy time with Clutch.

Moneyline: Cloud 9 -250 (3 units)

No wager on the Liquid / 100 T game because I don't like the o/u totals and the -500 is too rich.

No wager

I'm firing for a unit on CLG here. I don't think CLG are a great team but they're a good team and they've been surprisingly consistent this season. TSM didn't look too clean against 100 Thieves yesterday despite the very clean looking score line. There were a lot of minor miscues that I think they might not get away with against other teams. I don't think CLG are a better team than TSM but I do like the line value we're getting here so we'll take a chance on it for one unit.

Moneyline: CLG +166 (1 unit)

I initially liked FlyQuest but even in their win against Echo Fox they weren't really as impressive as Echo Fox was awful. OpTic on the other hand took care of business rather cleanly against the sub bottom lane of GGs. As I said before the break, I actually think OpTic aren't just a flukey hot start. This team is actually pretty good and look like a playoff team to me. Perhaps the fourth best team in NA. I like OpTic to beat FlyQuest even though I liked the confidence and vibes in the interviews from FlyQuest yesterday and I don't always ignore that sort of thing. I just think OpTic are actually good.

Moneyline: OpTic -169 (1.5 units)

Betting: July 6th (Rift Rivals Asia Day 3, NA LCS)

Rift Rivals Asia - Day 3

There isn't really a lot to say here in terms of what I expect this outcome to be but we'll play devil's advocate here and try to come up with the scenario where the LPL lose a game. Flash Wolves showed some fight but I actually think Dashing Buffalo or EVOS are the team to pull an upset game if there will be one. I think TOP is potentially vulnerable just stylistically to how these teams play but I think JDG make so many stupid decisions in their games and tend to draft and play heavily towards late game that they could be punished for it. I'm actually going to take the LMS/VCS team to steal one here. The odds imply around a 33% chance of that happening. Look, I actually think those odds would be not enough value in a bubble when strictly comparing the strengths of these teams but the truth is there is potential for the LMS/VCS squads to treat this as their Super Bowl, a way to leave good memories in the eyes of their fans rather than being embarassed. They're going to pull out all the stops. I also think that the LPL teams might be suffering from a bit of a lack of confidence (besides IG) right now. That combined with JDG's seemingly endless supplies of brain farts and China not dominating group stage like poeple thought could lead to either some laziness as they prepare for Korea or just general lower morale and I think you have a reasonable recipe for at least one upset game. 

It only takes one and we're going light but I think we're slightly more likely to see a win than the lines give credit for. 

Spread: LMS/VCS +2.5 maps @ +205 (0.5 units)

Prop: Exact LPL 3-1 @ +318 (0.25 units)

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NA LCS - Week 5 Day 1

So consider this a flag planted and perhaps my last stand but I think the week off is just what the doctor ordered for a FlyQuest team that's had a nightmarish start to the season. For a team that we had top four aspirations for this season has gone wildly off the rails sort of like 100 Thieves' did during Spring split. Similarly to 100 Thieves I think FlyQuest can turn this around. This team was so solid last split. It doesn't look like they've been solved or figured out they're just executing badly. It seems like a sort of contentedness set in over the team during the break and after a poor start a bit of tilt might have set in. I think a week off to relax frustrationgs and refocus this team can recapture themselves.

Echo Fox picked up MikeYeung and dropped Rush but I'm honestly not sure how much this changes how I feel about Echo Fox. This team and organization are in shambles with this LCS squad. I don't want to blame ownership specifically but if your coaching staff and scouting can't assemble any sort of momentum over two splits besides a few random wins I think changes need to be made. I'll be betting against Echo Fox in almost every possible scenario the rest of the season unless dramatic changes happen.

I'm going over my best of one limit up on this match because I feel so strongly about it. This number is only close because of FlyQuest's rough start but Echo Fox are the worth team in the LCS. With a roster move during the week off as a distraction while FlyQuest could refocus and being due for progression I'm absolutely in love with this line.

Moneyline: FlyQuest -112 (5 units)

O/U: EF/FLY UNDER 33:00 @ -105 (1 unit)

Yes Cloud 9 are probably the second best team in NA but I think we all know Team Liquid are a cut above everyone as we saw at Rift Rivals. Do I think Cloud 9 is as bad as they performed at that tournament? Probably not but I do know the Liquid are that good and this is actually a bettable number which is going to be rare moving forward. Both of these teams are coming off of the same week of Rift Rivals preparation so it's not like either has an edge there either like we sometimes see with teams coming off a tournament while the other had the week off. I love Liquid here. There's a reasonable chance they don't drop a game the rest of the season and I'll be taking them at any number that's remotely close to bettable.

Moneyline: Liquid -222 (3 units)

I thought TSM looked absolutely absymal at Rift Rivals and not just because of the competition they were facing. This team looked out of sync and out of focus. I think this is one of those scenarios where a team can be more demoralized than inspired from being stomped by superior teams. He hasn't said anything and he won't because he's a true professional but Bjergsen has to be getting frustrated with the performances of every other player on this team. I don't blame him either. The jungle is an absolute shit show and the bottom lane has been so mistake prone you never know what to expect. BrokenBlade has had his moments but has ultimately been underwhelming as well. I know this sounds like I'm buying into the 100 Thieves hype but to me these teams are trending in opposite directions and at this number it's pretty tough to say no to at least a light wager on 100 Thieves.

We're also going two units on the under 34 minutes. Even for the relatively slow playing NA I think 34 is a really high number and I feel like 100 Thieves should be crisp with the week to refresh while TSM will be rather flat. Alternatively if you want to believe TSM had a more positive takeaway from Rift Rivals by practicing against elite European teams then you could say they'll be more motivated to play uptempo like the European teams did and push the pace. Either way we should see an under here.

Moneyline: 100 Thieves +197 (0.5 unit)

O/U: TSM/100T UNDER 34:00 @ -118 (2 units)

I was 50/50 on this matchup before Golden Guardians announced that FBI and Huhi will be starting in the bottom lane. As you know I'm not typically a person to overreact to substitutions. As a matter of fact I'm usually the one telling people not to but a relatively new bottom lane against Arrow is something I'm going to take note of. I also think Crown is one of the few people that can actually outclass Froggen. I'm also wondering how much this swap in the bottom lane affects Golden Guardians drafts. As we know they're a team that relies quite a bit on comfort to succeed. Perhaps this loosens things up and allows them to do that but we'll see. I said before the break that I think OpTic are the real deal. I still think that. Golden Guardians will probably be a playoff team but I think there's something weird going on right now with them. It's aggressive but I'm going to trust OpTic to come back just as strong as they were before the break.

Again we're going to try to attack fairly high over/under totals for the week. I like unders coming off of time off during seasons to clean things up. I also think NA can't keep playing this slowly and will learn from what they're seeing around the world.

Moneyline: OpTic -110 (3 units)

O/U: GG/OPT UNDER 35:00 @ -122 (1.25 units)

Counter Logic Gaming look like a playoff team. It turns out if you just play consistently average in NA that's enough. CLG have been playing close to what I personally perceive as their potential ceiling but similar to Splyce in Europe that's often enough. Consistency can be powerful in mediocre regions. When looking over this game I kept finding myself saying "Clutch should" to a lot of different things. Clutch "should" have better players. Clutch "should" be better and due for some positive regression. It goes on. After a bit I took a step back and realized that I think CLG are just pretty good. As much as it pains me to say it, it's true. They've always infuriated me as an organization because they've been consistently overrated over many years but this team is pretty ok and until Clutch show me otherwise I'll try CLG here.

Moneyline: CLG -141 (2 units)

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Parlays:

Parlay (2): Liquid ML + FlyQuest ML @ +165 (2 units)

Parlay (3): Liquid ML + FlyQuest ML + 100 Thieves ML @ +714 (0.5 units)

Parlay (4): Liquid ML + FlyQuest ML + OpTic ML + CLG ML @ +776 (1 unit)

Parlay (5):
Liquid ML + FlyQuest ML + OpTic ML + CLG ML + 100 Thieves ML @ +2546 (0.5 units)

Parlay (5):
Liquid ML + FlyQuest ML + OpTic ML + CLG ML + TSM ML @ +1100 (0.5 units)

Parlay (5):
Liquid ML + FlyQuest ML + OpTic ML + Clutch ML + TSM ML @ +1367 (0.25 units)

Betting: July 5th (Rift Rivals Asia)

My takeaways from day one via my Twitter:

1) Korea looking more confident and loosened up at an international event for the first time in a long time. I don't know if it was just pressure from the years long dynasty after rough performances last year or if it's new teams or both but LCK looks great

2) Brains beat braun as KZ beat FPX. Helping out your rookie in Naehyun against DoinB did a ton to help in this game as Nae had an absolutely sick game on Azir. Loved the Rascal Kled too. Shows a willingness to adapt and mix it up that Korea hasnt had. Great coaching on KZ

3) Buffalo had a shot to beat JDG, both teams made a lot of macro mistakes but teamfought well. I like JDG going simple with front to back 2-core but against better teams they're going to be exposed for having little prio early. Lack of discipline let Buf back into the game.

4) TOP are a cold, disciplined, tryhard type team and today they were straight up disrespectful to EVOS. TOP are feelin' themselves right now and while I'm not sure it's necessarily a good thing it's definitely a nice change of pace to watch.

5) As mentioned earlier, against better teams JDG are going to get punished just playing scaling 2-core. Griffin going uptempo with the Akali, Sylas jung, Talon showing a significantly different look than we're used to from them. Can't stress it enough, Griffin can do everything There has been evidence of this and just because they don't always play this way doesn't mean they're incapable or unwilling to do so. Griffin were also in full style mode showing a ton of disrespect to JDG. Weird look for a team that's super disciplined but i LOVE the swagger!

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Rift Rivals Asia - Day 2

We didn't get to see MAD on day one but people should know that they currently look slightly better than the Flash Wolves. As I mentioned on the podcast both MAD and Flash Wolves play a very slow and steady style and are very similar teams. That said we really shouldn't expect much from the LMS or VCS teams and as we saw yesterday they're just outclassed by everyone including a JDG team that I think is a cut worse than the field. I'm taking the under 21.5 kills in this game as well as the under 31:00. It will depend on how Kingzone wants to approach this game. My guess would be to assume rational coaching because their coaching staff is excellent and they select a more uptempo look for this game. This is also a team that just beat a menacing FunPlus Phoenix squad yesterday so they're going to be feeling really confident. MAD aren't even in the same universe of quality. This should be a Kingzone stomping.

O/U: KZ/MAD UNDER 31:00 @ -115 (3 units)
(I erroneously entered this as OVER 31:00 counting the loss since I didnt spot it to hedge)

O/U: KZ/MAD UNDER 21.5 kills @ -114 (3 units)

Prop: Kingzone First Blood @ -169 (1 unit)

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I've been saying that I'm going to feel so bad for the first team that has to face Invictus with their full lineup reassembled this season and unfortunately for Flash Wolves they drew the short straw. Invictus are going to smash this team. I don't think there will be any real rust to shake off when you have players of this caliber and after a lackluster performance in day one, I'd expect this to be the fast and decisive IG we all know and love utterly smashing a team that's never seen anything quite like this. The 24.5 kill total is intriguing to me on both sides. You could argue that even against bad teams IG tend to give up a ton of kills and that it's a lock this is a bloody affair but LPL teams and LMS teams play vastly different styles and you could make the under argument for that reason. I could see this match being something like 17-4 kills. I'm siding with the under 24.5 mostly based on the LMS' lack of willingness to commit to fights. Flash Wolves aren't fight averse but they are risk averse so when fights go south they just bail instead of trying to force the rest out. I expect IG to be invigorated. With their full lineup finally intact they can start the road back to worlds off right and shake off this early season funk they've had. Expect IG to take it to the Flash Wolves.

O/U: IG/FW UNDER 24.5 kills @ -114 (1 unit)

O/U: IG/FW UNDER 28:00 @ -114 (2 units)

Prop: Invictus First Blood @ -175 (2 units)

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I feel like I should be on a side in this game between DAMWON and TOP eSports but I just can't get a read on this game. I think TOP were uncharacteristically disrespectful on day one but they also played EVOS, a team that they perhaps could style on a bit. DAMWON, who also played EVOS, were more or less themselves. Both teams smashed a bad opponent. I think a lot of this series comes down to what DAMWON lineup we're going to get. They played Flame in day one for the first time in awhile. The Karma top is definitely not a Nuguri style pick so if they're relying heavily on that to shutdown 369 then I actually think I like TOP. Nuguri I think can actually go blow for blow and might even outclass 369. It's a matchup I want to see really badly but I'm not sure we will. I'm abstaining from this match despite it being one that actually has betable odds. It feels bad but I just don't know how these teams are going to approach each other. I do like a light wager on the over 32:00 as I think this should be a competitive game.

O/U: TOP/DAM OVER 32:00 @ -114 (1 unit)

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Griffin vs Buffalo is a surprisingly weird game to approach. If Griffin are in full swagger style mode this kill score could get run up past the 22.5 number especially with Buffalo constantly forcing things. The thing is Griffin are another really intelligent team and they're just going to do what they need to to win.I think they'll look at how the more disciplined teams just didn't play Buffalo's game and outmacro'd them at MSI but Invictus, who did scrap with them should have lost. My guess would be that Griffin ice this game and slow it down to a crawl like they've been so damn good at this season in the LCK. This is, for my money, the best defensive team in the world and perhaps ever. I also think their lanes are just vastly superior to anything the Buffalo can march out. Sword against a guy playing his first split in top lane? I'll take that all day long. I'm going to take a risk and put a unit on the under 22.5 because I think Griffin will play this by the book. If you think they're feeling themselves and want to try to have some fun scrapping against the Buffalo than you should definitely take the over because this is an EXTREMELY low number if you feel that's the likely outcome.

O/U: GRF/BUF UNDER 22.5 kills @ -103 (1 unit)

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FunPlus vs Kignzone was the most interesting game yesterday and I don't think we should take anything away from FunPlus for it. Kingzone had the right gameplan AND executed well because their players are good and playing at a high level right now. MAD aren't in the same ballpark. They're not even in the same county, state, etc. FunPlus have been on a revenge tour in the LPL after their disappointing exit in the playoffs last split and after a loss yesterday I honestly feel bad for MAD Team who are going to have to stare down the raging Phoenix. FunPlus are going to utterly smash this team. The 23.5 kill total is too low to bet in a FunPlus game. They average just shy of 18 kills per game on their own and even against teams they smash the games tend to be style fests. 20-6 in a 25 minute win against LGD, 22-6 in a 25 minute win against Victory Five, etc. Actually if you want to draw a team comparison in both style and relative strength I think Team WE in the LPL is a reasonable comparison and FunPlus demolished them in 28 minutes and 23 minutes. I'm slamming the under 30 minutes here. FunPlus are going to be full on Edward Norton beating that dude to a bloody pulp in 'Fight Club' "I felt like destroying something beautiful."

O/U: FPX/MAD UNDER 30:00 @ -125 (4 units)

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I thought SKT looked pretty good yesterday and they get to face an Invictus that they've seen before AND in their second game after their full lineup has reunited. If you think the rust factor is real feel free to bet SKT but I think Invictus are a stylistic nightmare for how SKT like to play the game and I actually think this line is accurate even with all of the factors working against Invictus. Consider this a statement but I'm going heavy on Invictus tomorrow morning and expect them to run over this SKT lineup. I won't hold it against SKT if they lose this either.

Moneyline: Invictus -161 (4 units)

O/U: SKT/IG UNDER 32:00 @ +100 (1 unit)

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Parlays:

Once again we're going to do some heavy favorite pseudo hedge parlays like we succeeded with this morning. In these we're taking a few heavy favorites and then both sides of the match we're less confident in which is TOP/DAM tomorrow. This allows us to win no matter what providing the heavy favorites KZ, IG, and GRF all win their matches.

Parlay (4): KZ ML + IG ML + TOP ML + GRF ML @ +174 (2.5 units)

Parlay (4): KZ ML + IG ML + DAM ML + GRF ML @ +148 (2.5 units)

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Parlay (2): Invictus ML + FPX/MAD UNDER 30:00 @ + 192 (1 unit)

Parlay (2): FPX/MAD UNDER 30 + IG/FW UNDER 28 @ +238 (1 unit)

My books have closed the KZ/MAD under for now but I plan on firing that in combination with these three selections in parlays of two and three as well when it reopens.