Rift Rivals Asia - Day 3
There isn't really a lot to say here in terms of what I expect this outcome to be but we'll play devil's advocate here and try to come up with the scenario where the LPL lose a game. Flash Wolves showed some fight but I actually think Dashing Buffalo or EVOS are the team to pull an upset game if there will be one. I think TOP is potentially vulnerable just stylistically to how these teams play but I think JDG make so many stupid decisions in their games and tend to draft and play heavily towards late game that they could be punished for it. I'm actually going to take the LMS/VCS team to steal one here. The odds imply around a 33% chance of that happening. Look, I actually think those odds would be not enough value in a bubble when strictly comparing the strengths of these teams but the truth is there is potential for the LMS/VCS squads to treat this as their Super Bowl, a way to leave good memories in the eyes of their fans rather than being embarassed. They're going to pull out all the stops. I also think that the LPL teams might be suffering from a bit of a lack of confidence (besides IG) right now. That combined with JDG's seemingly endless supplies of brain farts and China not dominating group stage like poeple thought could lead to either some laziness as they prepare for Korea or just general lower morale and I think you have a reasonable recipe for at least one upset game.
It only takes one and we're going light but I think we're slightly more likely to see a win than the lines give credit for.
Spread: LMS/VCS +2.5 maps @ +205 (0.5 units)
Prop: Exact LPL 3-1 @ +318 (0.25 units)
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NA LCS - Week 5 Day 1
So consider this a flag planted and perhaps my last stand but I think the week off is just what the doctor ordered for a FlyQuest team that's had a nightmarish start to the season. For a team that we had top four aspirations for this season has gone wildly off the rails sort of like 100 Thieves' did during Spring split. Similarly to 100 Thieves I think FlyQuest can turn this around. This team was so solid last split. It doesn't look like they've been solved or figured out they're just executing badly. It seems like a sort of contentedness set in over the team during the break and after a poor start a bit of tilt might have set in. I think a week off to relax frustrationgs and refocus this team can recapture themselves.
Echo Fox picked up MikeYeung and dropped Rush but I'm honestly not sure how much this changes how I feel about Echo Fox. This team and organization are in shambles with this LCS squad. I don't want to blame ownership specifically but if your coaching staff and scouting can't assemble any sort of momentum over two splits besides a few random wins I think changes need to be made. I'll be betting against Echo Fox in almost every possible scenario the rest of the season unless dramatic changes happen.
I'm going over my best of one limit up on this match because I feel so strongly about it. This number is only close because of FlyQuest's rough start but Echo Fox are the worth team in the LCS. With a roster move during the week off as a distraction while FlyQuest could refocus and being due for progression I'm absolutely in love with this line.
Moneyline: FlyQuest -112 (5 units)
O/U: EF/FLY UNDER 33:00 @ -105 (1 unit)
Yes Cloud 9 are probably the second best team in NA but I think we all know Team Liquid are a cut above everyone as we saw at Rift Rivals. Do I think Cloud 9 is as bad as they performed at that tournament? Probably not but I do know the Liquid are that good and this is actually a bettable number which is going to be rare moving forward. Both of these teams are coming off of the same week of Rift Rivals preparation so it's not like either has an edge there either like we sometimes see with teams coming off a tournament while the other had the week off. I love Liquid here. There's a reasonable chance they don't drop a game the rest of the season and I'll be taking them at any number that's remotely close to bettable.
Moneyline: Liquid -222 (3 units)
I thought TSM looked absolutely absymal at Rift Rivals and not just because of the competition they were facing. This team looked out of sync and out of focus. I think this is one of those scenarios where a team can be more demoralized than inspired from being stomped by superior teams. He hasn't said anything and he won't because he's a true professional but Bjergsen has to be getting frustrated with the performances of every other player on this team. I don't blame him either. The jungle is an absolute shit show and the bottom lane has been so mistake prone you never know what to expect. BrokenBlade has had his moments but has ultimately been underwhelming as well. I know this sounds like I'm buying into the 100 Thieves hype but to me these teams are trending in opposite directions and at this number it's pretty tough to say no to at least a light wager on 100 Thieves.
We're also going two units on the under 34 minutes. Even for the relatively slow playing NA I think 34 is a really high number and I feel like 100 Thieves should be crisp with the week to refresh while TSM will be rather flat. Alternatively if you want to believe TSM had a more positive takeaway from Rift Rivals by practicing against elite European teams then you could say they'll be more motivated to play uptempo like the European teams did and push the pace. Either way we should see an under here.
Moneyline: 100 Thieves +197 (0.5 unit)
O/U: TSM/100T UNDER 34:00 @ -118 (2 units)
I was 50/50 on this matchup before Golden Guardians announced that FBI and Huhi will be starting in the bottom lane. As you know I'm not typically a person to overreact to substitutions. As a matter of fact I'm usually the one telling people not to but a relatively new bottom lane against Arrow is something I'm going to take note of. I also think Crown is one of the few people that can actually outclass Froggen. I'm also wondering how much this swap in the bottom lane affects Golden Guardians drafts. As we know they're a team that relies quite a bit on comfort to succeed. Perhaps this loosens things up and allows them to do that but we'll see. I said before the break that I think OpTic are the real deal. I still think that. Golden Guardians will probably be a playoff team but I think there's something weird going on right now with them. It's aggressive but I'm going to trust OpTic to come back just as strong as they were before the break.
Again we're going to try to attack fairly high over/under totals for the week. I like unders coming off of time off during seasons to clean things up. I also think NA can't keep playing this slowly and will learn from what they're seeing around the world.
Moneyline: OpTic -110 (3 units)
O/U: GG/OPT UNDER 35:00 @ -122 (1.25 units)
Counter Logic Gaming look like a playoff team. It turns out if you just play consistently average in NA that's enough. CLG have been playing close to what I personally perceive as their potential ceiling but similar to Splyce in Europe that's often enough. Consistency can be powerful in mediocre regions. When looking over this game I kept finding myself saying "Clutch should" to a lot of different things. Clutch "should" have better players. Clutch "should" be better and due for some positive regression. It goes on. After a bit I took a step back and realized that I think CLG are just pretty good. As much as it pains me to say it, it's true. They've always infuriated me as an organization because they've been consistently overrated over many years but this team is pretty ok and until Clutch show me otherwise I'll try CLG here.
Moneyline: CLG -141 (2 units)
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Parlays:
Parlay (2): Liquid ML + FlyQuest ML @ +165 (2 units)
Parlay (3): Liquid ML + FlyQuest ML + 100 Thieves ML @ +714 (0.5 units)
Parlay (4): Liquid ML + FlyQuest ML + OpTic ML + CLG ML @ +776 (1 unit)
Parlay (5):
Liquid ML + FlyQuest ML + OpTic ML + CLG ML + 100 Thieves ML @ +2546 (0.5 units)
Parlay (5):
Liquid ML + FlyQuest ML + OpTic ML + CLG ML + TSM ML @ +1100 (0.5 units)
Parlay (5):
Liquid ML + FlyQuest ML + OpTic ML + Clutch ML + TSM ML @ +1367 (0.25 units)
Echo Fox picked up MikeYeung and dropped Rush but I'm honestly not sure how much this changes how I feel about Echo Fox. This team and organization are in shambles with this LCS squad. I don't want to blame ownership specifically but if your coaching staff and scouting can't assemble any sort of momentum over two splits besides a few random wins I think changes need to be made. I'll be betting against Echo Fox in almost every possible scenario the rest of the season unless dramatic changes happen.
I'm going over my best of one limit up on this match because I feel so strongly about it. This number is only close because of FlyQuest's rough start but Echo Fox are the worth team in the LCS. With a roster move during the week off as a distraction while FlyQuest could refocus and being due for progression I'm absolutely in love with this line.
Moneyline: FlyQuest -112 (5 units)
O/U: EF/FLY UNDER 33:00 @ -105 (1 unit)
Yes Cloud 9 are probably the second best team in NA but I think we all know Team Liquid are a cut above everyone as we saw at Rift Rivals. Do I think Cloud 9 is as bad as they performed at that tournament? Probably not but I do know the Liquid are that good and this is actually a bettable number which is going to be rare moving forward. Both of these teams are coming off of the same week of Rift Rivals preparation so it's not like either has an edge there either like we sometimes see with teams coming off a tournament while the other had the week off. I love Liquid here. There's a reasonable chance they don't drop a game the rest of the season and I'll be taking them at any number that's remotely close to bettable.
Moneyline: Liquid -222 (3 units)
I thought TSM looked absolutely absymal at Rift Rivals and not just because of the competition they were facing. This team looked out of sync and out of focus. I think this is one of those scenarios where a team can be more demoralized than inspired from being stomped by superior teams. He hasn't said anything and he won't because he's a true professional but Bjergsen has to be getting frustrated with the performances of every other player on this team. I don't blame him either. The jungle is an absolute shit show and the bottom lane has been so mistake prone you never know what to expect. BrokenBlade has had his moments but has ultimately been underwhelming as well. I know this sounds like I'm buying into the 100 Thieves hype but to me these teams are trending in opposite directions and at this number it's pretty tough to say no to at least a light wager on 100 Thieves.
We're also going two units on the under 34 minutes. Even for the relatively slow playing NA I think 34 is a really high number and I feel like 100 Thieves should be crisp with the week to refresh while TSM will be rather flat. Alternatively if you want to believe TSM had a more positive takeaway from Rift Rivals by practicing against elite European teams then you could say they'll be more motivated to play uptempo like the European teams did and push the pace. Either way we should see an under here.
Moneyline: 100 Thieves +197 (0.5 unit)
O/U: TSM/100T UNDER 34:00 @ -118 (2 units)
I was 50/50 on this matchup before Golden Guardians announced that FBI and Huhi will be starting in the bottom lane. As you know I'm not typically a person to overreact to substitutions. As a matter of fact I'm usually the one telling people not to but a relatively new bottom lane against Arrow is something I'm going to take note of. I also think Crown is one of the few people that can actually outclass Froggen. I'm also wondering how much this swap in the bottom lane affects Golden Guardians drafts. As we know they're a team that relies quite a bit on comfort to succeed. Perhaps this loosens things up and allows them to do that but we'll see. I said before the break that I think OpTic are the real deal. I still think that. Golden Guardians will probably be a playoff team but I think there's something weird going on right now with them. It's aggressive but I'm going to trust OpTic to come back just as strong as they were before the break.
Again we're going to try to attack fairly high over/under totals for the week. I like unders coming off of time off during seasons to clean things up. I also think NA can't keep playing this slowly and will learn from what they're seeing around the world.
Moneyline: OpTic -110 (3 units)
O/U: GG/OPT UNDER 35:00 @ -122 (1.25 units)
Counter Logic Gaming look like a playoff team. It turns out if you just play consistently average in NA that's enough. CLG have been playing close to what I personally perceive as their potential ceiling but similar to Splyce in Europe that's often enough. Consistency can be powerful in mediocre regions. When looking over this game I kept finding myself saying "Clutch should" to a lot of different things. Clutch "should" have better players. Clutch "should" be better and due for some positive regression. It goes on. After a bit I took a step back and realized that I think CLG are just pretty good. As much as it pains me to say it, it's true. They've always infuriated me as an organization because they've been consistently overrated over many years but this team is pretty ok and until Clutch show me otherwise I'll try CLG here.
Moneyline: CLG -141 (2 units)
-----------------
Parlays:
Parlay (2): Liquid ML + FlyQuest ML @ +165 (2 units)
Parlay (3): Liquid ML + FlyQuest ML + 100 Thieves ML @ +714 (0.5 units)
Parlay (4): Liquid ML + FlyQuest ML + OpTic ML + CLG ML @ +776 (1 unit)
Parlay (5):
Liquid ML + FlyQuest ML + OpTic ML + CLG ML + 100 Thieves ML @ +2546 (0.5 units)
Parlay (5):
Liquid ML + FlyQuest ML + OpTic ML + CLG ML + TSM ML @ +1100 (0.5 units)
Parlay (5):
Liquid ML + FlyQuest ML + OpTic ML + Clutch ML + TSM ML @ +1367 (0.25 units)
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