LCK 2019 Spring Pre-Season Power Rankings

LCK Spring 2019 Pre-Season Power Rankings

The 2019 competitive League of Legends season is already underway with the LPL starting up this morning, CBLoL this weekend and the LCK on Wednesday so it's time for my bi-annual pre-season power rankings!

I've broken the LCK down into five seperate tiers which is a bit more than usual but I think there are fairly clear breaks here and unless a team shows a stylistic strength or weakness to take advantage of that we can more or less rank based on these tiers.

S Tier: The best teams in the league, favorites to win the split championship
A Tier: Definite playoff teams that can be competitive with the S Tier teams
B Tier: One or two of these teams usually make the playoffs but aren't on the same level
C Tier: Non-playoff teams that aren't quite as bad as the worst teams
D Tier: The worst teams, likely to be relegated back to challenger

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D Tier

10) Sandbox Gaming

Projected Starters: Wizer, Crush, Dove, Hollow, Joker

Subs: Summit (top), OnFleek (jungle), Ghost (ADC), DoRaoN (support), Totoro (support)

Coaches: Sally (head coach), Dragon, Laden

So with the bottom tier LCK teams the question is always whether or not this is a team that will provide a speed bump for good teams or middling teams. Rarely, actually almost never, do we get teams like Griffin last year who storm onto the scene and make an immediate impact. Actually they were the first team to really do that since SKT's second team did so over 5 years ago. In other words is this a team that belongs here or doesn't.

Sandbox Gaming were formerly Team BattleComics, a squad that convincingly defeated MVP for the LCK spot in the promotional tournament back in September. The finished the Summer season in Challengers Korea in 4th place with an 8-6 series record and a 21-13 game record. They defeated Kongdoo Monster 3-2 and then whooped on Winners 3-0 in the finals before proceeding to the promotion tournament. They actually went 1-1 in regular season with DAMWON as well which is worth noting because DAMWON were far and away the best team in Challengers Korea this Summer once Griffin left.

They have a few familiar names for subs including Ghost and Totoro as well as OnFleek but the likely starting lineup will be Wizer, Crush, Dove, Hollow, and Joker with OnFleek swapping in from time to time. So how good are they? Honestly I can't say I'm that hopeful for Sandbox and I'd say they have a greater than 50% chance to be back down in Challenger after the Spring split. It's debateable whether they were even the second best team in Challenger. They just happened to catch Winners off guard in one series.

Bottom line is I'd be shocked if this team won more than one two series this split and think it's not outside of the realm of possibility that they go winless. They're going to be REALLY REALLY bad!

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C Tier

9) Jin Air Green Wings

Projected Starters: Lindarang, Malrang, Grace, Stitch, Nova

Subs: TaNa (top), CheonGo (mid), Route (ADC), Kellin (support)

Coaches: H-Dragon (head coach), Alvingo, W

I'm not really sure what Jin Air was thinking letting Teddy go unless it was just a financial situation or that he was unhappy. Teddy is a super star. Think of it like the Raiders trading Khalil Mack but instead of getting a lot back they got next to nothing. Really outside of Teddy, Jin Air were an awful team last year despite a few memorable upsets. They're extremely one dimensional and while they've added a few coaches that I'm sure will have this team adjusting to the new state of the game, I actually can't guarantee that. As a matter of fact I thought they'd do that last season and they didn't, they just kept playing like Jin Air does. Slow and steady. 

With all the bad things said I do think there are some redeeming characteristics to this team and they won't be quite as bad and the potentially winless Sandbox. Malrang and Grace stick out to me as potential solid performers based on what I've seen from them but unless this team completely changes who they are they're going to have a lot of work to do to make a playoff spot. I just think in a micro-focused metagame this team is going to struggle against superior individual talent and it's going to be tough to overcome that.

8) Hanwha Life eSports

Projected Starters: SoHwan, bonO, Tempt, Sangyoon, Key

Subs: Thal (top), Moojin (jungle), Lava (mid), Clever (ADC), Asper (support)

Coaches: Kang Tae-woo, OnAir (head coach), LinLan, Woong (former MIG/Azubu Frost)

Hanwha Life eSports were the darlings of the LCK last split. The "try-hards" as I titled them. They were exceptionally well-coached and Lava really showed potential to be a player to build around. They've added Thal from SKT, and a few new ADC's and Bono from BBQ but it appears they'll be continuing to start Moojin who showed potential last season. SoHwan and Thal, two fairly underrated players, will battle for time in the top lane.

There is a chance the competition keeps this team hungry and that coaching matters more than I'm giving it credit for. That was arguably this teams strongest aspect last year but in a metagame that's less about macro decisions and more about micro as it's appearing Season 9 will be makes me feel that this team could struggle unless Lava and Moojin can do some heavy lifting. Hanwha Life are a team full of underrated players which makes me think this team could end up challenging for a playoff spot if they all perform well but I also think they'd all need to perform well in a micro-focused metagame. I don't like to reference Demacia Cup for a lot but losing to a non-challenger team is something that shouldn't be ignored but they were also doing that with new subs. Just something to note is all.

7) DAMWON Gaming

Projected Starters: Nuguri, Canyon, ShowMaker, Nuclear, Hoit

Subs: Punch (jungle), Calm (ADC), BeryL (support)

Coaches: Micro (head coach), MorNinG, Kang Tae-su, Kim Jeong-soo

So a lot of people are going to be a bit overhyped on DAMWON after the results Griffin put up last season. "Gelati, if Griffin can do well so can DAMWON!?" You're right they could but I also think Griffin was a generational new team. The kind that only pops up every 5 years or so (a generation in pro gaming). Contrary to how this appears, I actually think DAMWON could be the second best team to ever come from the Challengers Korea only to Griffin but that doesn't mean they're going to be as good as that team. For those that don't know DAMWON were the only thing remotely close to competition for Griffin in their last challenger split in the Spring and then proceeded to go 13-1 with their only series loss to BattleComics (now Sandbox) in the Summer CK split. This team is really good and has a good blend of young talent and veteran players but the LCK is a different beast than Challengers Korea and unlike Griffin, who were the exception to the rule, I think DAMWON will have their struggles. 

That said there is enough individual talent on this roster to succeed in a micro-focused meta that it appears Season 9 will be. With veteran leaders like Nuclear and Punch as well as former pros along the coaching lineup I think we could see a blazing hot start from the new kids on the block that will remind people of Griffin last split. I just don't think they're quite as good as Griffin and the LCK is looking to be extremely competitive once again this split. I have DAMWON with about a 40-50% chance to make the playoffs and it wouldn't surprise me if they did. It would just take one of the "old guard" having a below average split. DAMWON look to be the "best of the rest" to me.

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B Tier

6) Gen.G eSports

Projected Starters: CuVee, Peanut, Fly, Ruler, Life

Subs: Roach (top)

Coaches: Lee Ji-hoon, Edgar, oDin, TrAce

Continuity is underrated in the Spring split. This ranking is a combination of a few factors for me. One of them is that I think Gen.G will be underrated by the public because of their poor performance at Worlds this year as well as the first roster change they've been through in a few years with CoreJJ going back to the NA LCS. The second factor is that I think this is that I think this team isn't built to succeed in a micro metagame but they proved last year that they can overcome meta considerations so take from that what you will. The third factor is that they've made improvements.

Individually this team is unbelievably good but their strengths are somewhat out of line. Peanut is an exceptional early game player and will certainly give this team a much needed boost there. If Gen.G were able to play from ahead last year they would've been one of the best teams in the world but they were so consistently behind that it became a problem for them. Peanut was an EXCELLENT addition. However I do think there are going to be some growing pains with this team as they have a collection of players that are stylistically at odds and it will take time for them to all meet each other in the middle. I expect a slow start from Gen.G and a strong finish. They'll likely be a playoff team as long as their start isn't too slow. I think they're a cut better than DAMWON and WAY better than the other bottom teams.

5) Kingzone DragonX

Projected Starters: Rascal, Cuzz, PawN, Deft, Tusin

Subs: Naehyun (mid)

Coaches: Hirai (head coach), Supreme, Acorn (former Samsung)

I'm going to get some that disagree here but I actually love this Kingzone lineup. It's got a lot of continuity, veteran experience, and excellent individual players. I think a lot of people are going to look at Rascal and Cuzz and think these are huge downgrades when in reality they aren't that big of a drop off from Khan and Peanut. Yea I said it. Khan and Peanut are world class players but I think people are forgetting that Cuzz was, at one point, the premier super prospect ON THE PLANET. It's why I was so high on Kingzone in previous years because they had both Cuzz AND BDD. Now the downgrade of BDD to Pawn isn't to be understated. BDD is one of the best players on the planet in any position and Pawn is in the twilight of his career and often struggling with health problems. Naehyun will have to be ready to roll if Pawn begins struggling with health again but hopefully the hall of famer can get over that and return to form.  Tusin was an underrated player during his entire career on Afreeca and was one of the main reasons that team performed consistently well across many metagames in his two year career there. Deft is... well Deft doesn't need an introduction, he's still one of the best of all time at any position. 

I think this team is going to surprise a lot of people, especially Cuzz and Rascal but a lot depends on Pawn's health and/or Naehyun's ability to step in if, unfortunately, Pawn's health becomes a concern. I expect to make a lot of money on people sleeping on the Kingzone roster this split just because it isn't as star-studded as last years.

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A Tier

4) KT Rolster

Projected Starters: Smeb, Score, BDD, Gango, SnowFlower

Subs: Kingen (top), UmTi (jungle), Zenit (ADC), Mia (support)

Coaches: ZanDarc (head coach), Noexcuse, S0NSTAR (former CJ)

I can't believe KT let UCal walk but I'll touch on the unknowns first here. Gango used to be known as Skatch and played for a number of years in the Chinese LDL for Vici, Unlimited Potential, and then last year spent time in the new Japanese league the LJL for USG. USG were the 2nd place team in the LJL Summer with a 6-4 record. His numbers were decent but nothing spectacular. 

I don't really think the rest of this roster needs an introduction. You could make arguments for Smeb, Score, and BDD being in the top two or three at their positions in the world. The top side of the map is going to be fine. SnowFlower has always been an underrated and solid support player. It's just going to depend on how Gango performs or Zenit if Gango isn't up to snuff. One thing Gango did well was present good damage per gold numbers and an impressive 3.7% first blood victim during the summer in the LJL. If KT wanted to find a player that would lose gracefully then they appear to have found one. Whether he can become a plus at the position might not matter with this lineup but we shall see. I personally think KT missed out on the Teddy sweepstakes as SKT scooped him up.

This top side of the map is so utterly dominant that I can't see this team finishing anywhere outside of A Tier even with a potential liability at the ADC position. SnowFlower should be able to babysit him and show him the ropes as a veteran of many years in the LCK. We've seen with players like CodySun and Stixxay that you can get by and make a mediocre talent, relative to the league, at the ADC position look good if the rest of the team is built to do so (shots fired). KT will be a competitior.

3) Afreeca Freecs

Projected Starters: Kiin, Dread, UCal, Aiming, Jelly

Subs: Summit (top), Spirit (jungle), SSUN (mid/inactive), SSol (ADC/inactive), Proud (support)

Coaches: iloveoov (head coach), NoFe, vINylCat, Yeon

I honestly can't believe KT Rolster let UCal walk (yea I said it twice) but they at least got BDD who is a similarly world class talent. For my money Afreeca and KT Rolster (and really SKT also) have assembled to the two best pairs of solo lanes in the world. Kiin and UCal is terrifying and seemingly impossible to gameplan for as an opposing team. Dread (formerly Twinkle and Hyeok) has been kicking around the challenger scene in Korea for a number of yeras on Gangwon and, most recently, on REVERSE Gaming with mixed success. He'll either have Spirit showing him the way or Spirit will be the starter and Dread was just playing for Kespa Cup. Aiming has been a member of Afreeca for a couple years and had some success as a starter last year. During the Summer split he actually started more than three times the number of games Kramer did but was unfortunately not brought to Worlds due to the 6 player limit. TL:DR - Aiming is a good ADC. Maybe not a superstar but a solid starter. Jelly has been dying for a chance to play in the big leagues as he's been riding the bench for Afreeca for more than a year at this point. I tend to like players that are finally getting their shot like that. Afreeca and KT Rolster are both in the A Tier to me and you could make the argument that KT should be ranked higher than Afreeca but they're interchangable. I'm breaking the tie for Afreeca only because I like Kiin quite a lot and think Jelly could potentially make a name for himself but they're very similarly built and even in strength.

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S Tier

2) SK Telecom T1

Projected Starters: Khan, Clid, Faker, Teddy, Mata

Subs: Crazy (top), Haru (jungle), Gori (mid),Leo (ADC), Effort (support)

Coaches: kkOma (head coach), Fly, Zefa, Sayho

They're baack!! Man oh man what a ridiculously good offseason for SK Telecom. They got the best free agent ADC BY FAR in Teddy as well as the best free agent top laner in Khan. If that wasn't enough, they've assembled arguably the two greatest players of all time on one team with the addition of Mata to Faker. This isn't even mentioning the addition of Clid from the LPL's JDG who was excellent last season. They even added Crazy from BBQ, Haru from Gen.G, and retained Effort who looked solid at points during last season once the roster settled down. This team looks exceptional top to bottom. If Clid is your weakest player you're in good shape. I also love not only the quality of the players but the stylistic pairings here. These are all excellent aggressive players and thrive in the early game. They'll be able to enable each other to have explosive starts. Not to say they can't play late but players that thrive individually in the early game and in skirmishes are going to be the most well positioned this season unless dramatic changes happen.

SK Telecom saw the problems that not only they had internally last season and addressed them but also saw the potential improvements Korea as a whole needed to make to the way they play the game and addressed those too. This is going to be a contender for the World Championship this year and I might be delusional ranking them at 2 instead of 1 but....

Griffin

Projected Starters: Sword, Tarzan, Chovy, Viper, Lehends

Subs: Kabbie (support), Rather (mid, loaned to Flash Wolves)

Coaches: Cho Gyu-nam, TINO, cvMax (head coach), Byun Young-sub

Griffin burst onto the scene last year. I had them ranked #5 in my Pre-Season Power Rankings for the Summer split but still in the S- Tier and they honestly overperformed that lofty expectation. Not only did Griffin dominate all season but they did so in a completely different way than they stomped the challenger scene. Impressive. This team is the truth. They're all young, they've all had their contracts extended, they looked hungry as all hell in the Kespa Cup and I expect them to come out and prove to everyone that they should have been one of the Korean representatives at Worlds last year. 

Why do I have them ahead of all the hall of famers and the excellent lineup of SK Telecom? Not only do I think this is the next generation of super stars already but I think they've stayed together and continuity is important. They're also so ridiculously young that they have room to grow into even better players. We've also seen that they don't plan to start slow and as mentioned earlier, this team has way more tools than they showed us last year. If they didn't run into a KT super team last year in one of the best finals I've ever seen then they likely would have had a shot at winning the World Championship last year and they're going to have that in mind for this entire calendar year to motivate them.

Betting: January 15th (LPL)

LOL Pro League January 15th Schedule:

SinoDragon are a new team and winners of the LDL Summer Championship (China's Challenger scene). The lost in the winners bracket semis to Unlimited Potential before winning their losers bracket semis and then going on to win the finals 3-1 in a rematch. Truthfully I don't know too much else about this team since the LDL is one of the few leagues I don't really watch or research. This is a total unknown quantity to me and because of that I'll be limiting wagers here but one thing I do know is that they'll likely perform better than the new look Rogue Warriors did yesterday as this team was, in more or less every way, a better challenger squad than the one the four new RW players played on. 

EDward are more or less the same team with the same lineup. Continuity can be a strong point and the odds show that. EDG were, in my opinion, the 5th best team in the LPL over the course of the calendar year last year and they performed about as well as I expected them to at Worlds this year. 

EDG are a good team with continuity and probably a chip on their shoulder from being eliminated by Fnatic (not that Fnatic is a bad team by any stretch) however this is also a team that lost to the improved Suning Gaming in the Demacia Cup. As you guys know I don't put too much stock into preseason tournaments as it's difficult to see who is motivated and who isn't and inparticular teams that were at Worlds often rarely prepare for these in order to give their players some time off. 

I don't know much about SinoDragon but honestly EDG should crush this. You could go all transitive property on me and look at the Demacia Cup results and try to compare that way and say "oh there's value here in SDG because they took a game of Suning just like EDG did" and I wouldn't blame you for that but I'm going to take the Worlds representatives to 2-0 this for a small wager. I'm also going to take the OVER 25.5 kills in both of these games. New teams tend to be really hungry and aggressive in my experience and even if I expect EDG to wipe the floor here I think it's safe to look at yesterdays games where three out of four went WAY WAY over 25.5 kills and expect early season China to remain as aggressive as always. Let's farm that value while we still can.

Handicapped: EDG -1.5 maps @ -122 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 OVER 25.5 Total Kills @ +101 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 OVER 25.5 Total Kills @ -103 (1 unit)

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In early December BiliBili acquired ADD and Kuro from the LCK. Two criminally underrated players over the course of their careers in Korea. I became excited about BiliBili's potential. Shortly after on December 17th there were a few departures of subs and coaches which made me a bit skeptical again. So I really don't know what to expect here. BiliBili had a great Spring split last year being the "grown up" team in the LPL playing with heavily influenced Korean style and discipline. Slow and steady wins the race but they were winning with Korean Mid Athena at the helm. During the Summer they moved some starters around and without Athena playing as much really struggled quite a bit. Granted the meta became pretty bad for that style but they still struggled. It appears that they want to go back to that disciplined style based on the pickups of ADD and Kuro who are two veteran LCK players. I'm not sure how much weight to put on this and I'm not going to assume they'll do this because there isn't a Korean coach but I think it's safe to say that they wanted to at least get back to that style a bit.

LGD also imported a few players in Ian and Kramer from the LCK and RD from the LMS. They also picked up Condi, one of 2017's strongest junglers and still a solid one last year, from World Elite, and renewed star support players Pyl's contract. They also changed head coaches on December 16th to UDJ who was an assistent during the Summer and previously coached JDG. To me this LGD lineup actually looks solid. I think people are going to have some "price memory" of LGD being one of the worst teams inthe LPL last year but towards the end of the year they actually appeared to be figuring things out even if it was too late.

This is two teams that I think will be much improved and will likely be mid tier LPL teams this split. Somewhere in the 5-8th range. Based on how these teams appear to want to play I like LGD a bit more in this matchup and the odds line up with that. I tried to find an angle to play the over/unders with BBG's tendency to want to play slower and controlled but I want to see it first. I won't be making any plays on this game just a slight lean to LGD and a slightly lean to the OVER 32:00.

No Wagers

Betting: January 14th (LPL)

LOL Pro League (China) - January 14th

First bet of the 2019 season is going to have to get out a bit early as I'll be on the road this weekend. I'll be slightly adjusting release schedule this season a bit. Picks will be coming out a few hours later than they were last year. There's a few reasons for this but for the most part I think it will be easier to have a consistent release schedule if I aim for evenings instead of afternoons. Things happen. I'll have my LCK, NA LCS, and EU LCS Pre-Season Power Rankings coming out next week (LCK hopefully Monday). Anyway, on with the selections!

Anybody that watched Knight last year could have told you he was this good but a superstar mid laner does not a great team make so why are people so hype on TopSports? Firstly we have LGD analyst Quanquan going over his rankings on a video uploaded to Bilibili. (here is the actual video) Obviously this guy is doing this for a living and sees these players in scrims more than I do but I tend to think Loken and Ben's experience as a bot lane could prove worthwhile. For the most part I agree with most of his ideas in this but I also think simply grading players individually to a total score isn't always an accurate representation of that team. We see this in football with Pro Football Focus' player rankings and ratings all the time. While they may be accurate it doesn't necessarily mean the team will be good. Secondly I think people tend to be really hype about the "next great player" which, in this case, is Knight and people tend to overrate that a bit.

So it may seem like I'm a bit of a wet blanket regarding TopSports but I actually do think they'll be a Top 4 team this split. Are they in the same tier as Invictus? I don't think so. To me they're the best of the rest and IG and RNG are just a cut above everyone until proven otherwise.

Some points to consider with these two teams:

• Invictus has never been a team to have slow starts and/or not "care" about regular season (see Gen.G/Samsung). They literally lost two best of threes in BOTH the Spring and Summer split combined last year. TWO! 
• Invictus have the continuity advantage bringing back the same lineup as last year.
• TopSports are going to have their growing pains with this new roster even if they are a Top 4 team.
• Individually there is potential for TopSports to "cancel" out Rookie with Knight. These are two of the best individual players in the world and I'm looking forward to the two of them duking it out this season. Invictus have the advantage in every other position and a dramatic one in top lane.
• Potential revenge factor here for TopSports after their loss in the Demacia Cup a couple weeks ago.
• Fatigue or "hangover" potential for the World Champs if you believe in that.

I really want to like TopSports here but I just can't bring myself to bet against the champs. I'm not a believe in championship "hangovers" in any sport and anecdotally there's absolutely no real evidence supporting them in most sports and competitive activities. In League specifically the champs often come back just as solid but tail off a bit in the middle of the year from fatigue. I was originally going to place a small moneyline wager on TopSports here but I'm instead going to go two units on the IG moneyline and a half unit on the -1.5 handicap. I wouldn't fault anybody for taking TopSports here but I just can't bring myself to do it.

Moneyline: Invictus Gaming -233 (2 units)

Handicapped: Invictus -1.5 maps @ +122 (0.5 units)

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FunPlus Phoenix are another team that's been hyped a bit with the acquisition of stud mid laner and leader DoinB. Adding him to a team that really struggled from the mid lane with the aging Cool giving it one last go could be a huge improvement. I'm still skeptical but DoinB has a history of leading rosters he's on to overperform. He's one of the most vocal and charasmatic leaders in the world of League of Legends and I expect that to be the case here as long as his health holds up.

Rogue Warriors on the other hand are a completely revamped squad. On one hand I love when a team opts to bring in fresh new blood instead of just trying to rebuild with one or two pieces of an old team. It's almost always a trap and rarely ends up working out.With the amount of players in China any up and coming young talent is always promising but historically it hasn't been as productive as you'd think. 

To me this comes down to whether or not you trust the "fresh blood" approach Rogue Warriors are taking. Truth be told I simply don't know enough about most of these Rogue Warriors players to have a great read on them. The things I do know:

• Top laner Jiangqiao is formerly Betsy, not the LMS Betsy. 
• Killua is the only remaining member of the previous LPL roster
• Most of these players were on Rogue Warriors developmental team the Sharks.

So it's not like these are a random hodge podge of players. Most of them played together in the challenger scene and Killua has LPL experience to guide them so it's not an absolute given that this team will be one of the worst in the LPL but if I'm being honest, I look at the improvements made by a lot of these squads and it looks rather grim for the previously mighty Rogue Warriors. They're in "rebuild" mode and unless you believe that will happen a lot more quickly than I do, which I won't rule out, then this is EASY money with FunPlus.

FunPlus were a middling team last year but landed a potential prize in DoinB if he can stay healthy and lead this team. They'll be fired up and ready to go. They've got a great leader, continuity, and experience on their side as well as a relatively disappointing season last year and I expect them to come out the gates firing. One last thing of note is that if the metagame is heavily dependent on individual lanes as I think it will be, FunPlus were surprisingly good in that style last year. The current metagame suits the way they played last year. Does that mean they'll play that way? Not necessarily but it's just another reason to like their side here.

Moneyline: FunPlus Phoenix -270 (3 units)

Handicapped: FunPlus -1.5 maps @ +110 (1 unit)

Analyzing My 2018 in Handicapping League of Legends

Analyzing My 2018 in Handicapping League of Legends

This was not my first foray into betting and capping but it was the first time I kept detailed logs and records and really dove deep on League of Legends handicapping. At the beginning of the year I set off to really push my limits to see what works, what doesn't, why, and, of course, to make some money. I took a heavy volume approach and wrote a lot about this as I got started last year. I wanted to see how much I could feasibly handle (or get away with) both in terms of analysis and wagering. Writing also encourages you to want to put your money where your mouth is.

We had a blast going through this thought experiment this year and I'll be aiming to do so again with the new season coming up in a few weeks! Anyway here's my results for 2018!

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FIRST HALF STATS


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End of Season Stats (by region):

A few of these won't add up correctly because I made corrections about halfway through so some of the props and O/U counts might be wrong since, for quite some time, I had them labeled the same. I went through and made the corrections within the regional sheets I have but not in my overall sheet. Other than that there shouldn't be many discrepencies and if there are they're probably from me inputting something wrong.

North American LCS

Win-Loss: 110 - 93 (54.187%)
Net Units Gained: +13.1115 units
Avg Yield per Wager: -0.1473%
Avg Wager: 2.2145 units

Moneyline: 66 - 46 (+20.6295 units)
Live/In-Game: 26 - 21 (-0.353 units)
Over/Unders: 15 - 19 (-7.625 units)
Other Props: 2 - 6 (+0.22 units)
Handicapped: 1 - 1 (+0.24 units)

0-0.99 unit Wagers: 4 - 12 (25%)
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 34 -34 (50%)
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 32 - 24 (57.14%)
3-3.99 unit Wagers: 16 - 13 (55.17%)
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 11 - 5 (68.75%)
5-5.99 unit Wagers: 7 - 3 (70%)
6+ unit Wagers: 6 - 2 (75%)


I had one thing VERY wrong going into the Spring Season which was 100 Thieves and had I been able to admit I was wrong about them sooner I could have had a monster year in NA as well. Other than that I was more or less right on the money with my preseason read of the region. My tiers were more or less exactly right by both the end of Summer and really by the end of the year other than 100 Thieves. The best of one angle scared my quite a bit and after a few really rough swings in the middle of the Spring Split I decided that I'd be limiting myself to three units on all but the most exceptional plays just based on the variance of best of ones. I had a good Summer in NA but if I had to go back I would have limited my wagers just like I did again. I think it was the correct call.

Goals for Next Year:

• Be willing to admit you were wrong about a team a bit sooner. Don't deny your initial read the chance to pan out but don't insist.

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European LCS

Win-Loss: 92 - 72 (56.1%)
Net Units Gained: +3.88
Avg Yield per Wager: +0.522%
Avg Wager: 2.055 units

Moneyline: 49 - 49 (-7.895 units)
Live/In-Game: 12 - 3 (+2.71 units)
Over/Unders: 19 - 9 (+8.4115 units)
Other Props: 10 - 6 (+3.36 units)
Handicapped: 2 - 5 (-2.41 units)

0-0.99 unit Wagers: 6 - 7 (%)
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 36 - 33
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 16 - 17
3-3.99 unit Wagers: 11 - 9
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 12 - 5
5-5.99 unit Wagers: 6 - 0
6+ unit Wagers: 2 - 1


Lost a single 10 unit live wager on Roccat that lost me most of the gains I would've had in Europe. It was my lone 6+ unit loss and it was a stupid, tilted mistake. Similarly to North America, I had an excellent read on Europe with the exception of we'll call it 1.5 teams. Spring Vitality and Spring Schalke 04. I held on to my "Vitality will come crashing down" thought process for way too long. It ended up being true to a certain extent but those losses that confirmed my suspicions could have been predicted even if I changed my mind enough to respect Vitality. Schalke I was just wrong on all of Spring since, it turns out, they needed more time to gel as a unit and didn't really do so until Summer. If you consider that I was 19--9 in my Over/Unders and that was where the bulk of my profits came from I really didn't do that well in Europe. Let's say that number regresses closer to 50% and I don't punt away 10 units on a garbage team like Roccat and we would've ended up well but not exceptional.

Goals for Next Year:

• Similar to NA, be willing to admit you were wrong about a team a bit sooner. Don't deny your initial read the chance to pan out but don't insist.
• DON'T BREAK YOUR LIMIT RULES

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LOL Pro League (China)


Win-Loss: 154 - 185 (45.427%)
Net Units Gained: -43.479 units
Avg Yield per Wager: -5.967%
Avg Wager:  2.14 units

Moneyline: 27 - 36 (-29.25 units)

Live/In-Game: 2 - 0 (+5.85 units)
Over/Unders: 55 - 55   (-11.026 units)
Other Props: 11 - 26 (-6.02 units)
Handicapped: 59 - 68 (-3.033 units)

0-0.99 unit Wagers: 29 - 39
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 41 - 62
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 31 - 34
3-3.99 unit Wagers: 20 - 22
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 9 - 14
5-5.99 unit Wagers: 12 - 11
6+ unit Wagers:  12 - 3

By the end of the Spring Split I was only down 1.064 units total in the LPL. What the hell happened to my second half? Well it's actually really simple and it's a trap a lot of people fall into and I didn't realize I was too until it was too late. I actually came out the gates relatively hot in the LPL Summer Split getting off to an 18-12 start and, if memory recalls, I was in the green double digit units at one point before it all came crashing down. I don't think it was a matter of overconfidence or "smelling myself" as much as it was that I had a pretty rough losing streak in every region besides the LCK that started early in the middle of the Summer. By the time the other regions finished up and it was just the LPL active I was in this mindset that I "had to make a lot of money before the season ended" which is an absolutely stupid idea. I started chasing heavy favorite 2-0's, a stat which was a big positive for me in Spring in the LPL, and severely overbet bonehead scenarios over and over. 5+ unit wagers all over the place on heavy favorites -1.5 when the reality of the situation was that a lot of teams clinched playoffs early and didn't really have the same urgency for "securing a first round bye" or whatever as I thought. This problem compounded on itself and I was in full tilt mode.

Did I have a few bad beats? Admittedly yes (IG losing to OMG?) but I was definitely chasing and putting way too much on matches that not only were very likely to have weird outcomes due to end of season playoff/not playoff scenarios, subsitutions, etc. I'll also admit there was a bit of a boredom factor here as well with all of the other leagues being done for the year I got super greedy betting a lot of these end of Summer LPL matches that I would have had the discipline to abstain from the rest of the year. It's not justification, it's just incorrect.

Goals for Next Year:

• DON'T CHASE
• REALIZE WHEN YOU'RE CHASING
• Keep in mind that the end of the season is extremely high variance especially after playoff spots are secured.
• DON'T BOREDOM BET without accepting the consequences and communicating it to your readers.

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LOL Champions Korea

Win-Loss: 214 - 172 - 1 (55.44%)
Net Units Gained: +68.275 units 
Avg Yield per Wager: +7.354%
Avg Wager: 2.458 units

Moneyline: 59 - 35 (+4.4625 units)
Live/In-Game: 11 - 4 (+10.424 units)
Over/Unders: 51 - 46 - 1 (-2.47 units)
Other Props: 21 - 30 (+6.7625 units)
Handicapped:  72 - 57 (+49.096 units) (+10.1554% yield)

0-0.99 unit Wagers: 31 - 28
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 59 - 69 - 1
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 38 - 24
3-3.99 unit Wagers: 20 - 19
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 28 - 10
5-5.99 unit Wagers: 14 - 13
6+ unit Wagers: 23 - 9
8+ unit Wagers: 10 - 3 (extended from the 6+ unit wagers because I did more of it here than any other region)

My biggest strength for the year was playing LCK Handicaps. I had a ridiculous 72 - 57 for a total of +49.096 units in just this style of bet in this league alone. I averaged over a 10.15% yield per wager in LCK handicapped wagers. 

What can I say, I just destroyed Korea. It's the region I pay the most attention to and the results show it.

Goals for Next Year:

• Maybe shave wager size on Over/Unders  but generally just keep doing what you're doing.

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League Masters Series (Taiwan)


Win-Loss: 26 - 26 (50%)
Net Units Gained: -15.27 units
Avg Yield per Wager: -16.1587%
Avg Wager: 1.82 units

Moneyline: 2 - 2 (+1.425 units)

Live/In-Game: 0 - 0
Over/Unders: 6 - 4 (+1.445 units)
Other Props: 6 - 2 (+0.545 units)
Handicapped: 12 - 18  (-18.685 units)

0-0.99 unit Wagers: 9 - 5
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 6 - 7
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 6 - 8
3-3.99 unit Wagers: 3 - 3
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 0 - 2
5-5.99 unit Wagers: 1 - 0
6+ unit Wagers:  1 - 1

The LMS was sort of the opposite of North America for me. When I made sharp, small wagers I was generally successful, albeit with a small sample size. A majority of the larger wagers were during the beginning of the Summer split where there was a bit of a changing of the guard happening in the mid tier teams. By the middle of the Summer Split I was chasing quite a bit in the LMS too trying to "rebound." Most of the handicapped bet losses were basically trying to get any kind of value out of a region full of -1000 range favorites and it ended up biting me in the ass.

Goals for Next Year:

• Don't chase heavy favorites just for the value.
• Don't convince yourself of 2-0's when the realistic odds of 2-1's are higher than you're willing to admit.

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Turkish Champions League (Turkey)


Win-Loss: 22 - 12 (64.7%)
Net Units Gained: +6.235 units
Avg Yield per Wager: +15.0241%
Avg Wager: 1.22 units

Moneyline: 3 - 0 (+4.84 units)

Live/In-Game: none
Over/Unders: 16 - 9 (+5.54 units)
Other Props: 3 - 2 (-0.145 units)
Handicapped: 0 - 1 (-4.0 units)

0-0.99 unit Wagers: 4 - 1
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 12 - 9
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 6 - 1
3-3.99 unit Wagers: none
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 0 - 1
5-5.99 unit Wagers: none
6+ unit Wagers: none

Almost all of these wagers occured in the Spring season when I felt I had a much better read on the TCL as a whole. Who the good/bad teams were, the metagame, and the regional metagame and how it affected game time totals where we had the most success. Early in the Spring, the books didn't have any idea how games would play out here so if you just watched the good teams at all you'd realize none of these games were going to 30 minutes and we were getting totals 32-34 minutes. It was, as they say, "easy money." Once algorithms adjusted it was a little harder to consistently make money in such a lopsided region. The Summer Split had a lot of roster changes which made things even more predictable so I stay away for the most part.

Goals for Next Year:

• THIS IS A GOOD EXAMPLE OF ABSINTENCE. The Summer was wild and you didn't force bet into it.
• Maybe try to get a read on style for smaller regions again, there's money to be made in game flow based betting like over/unders. 

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LOL Continental League (CIS)


Win-Loss: 0 - 5 (0%)
Net Units Gained: -5.25 units
Avg Yield per Wager: -100%
Avg Wager: 1.05 units

Moneyline: 0 - 1 (-1 unit)
Live/In-Game:
Over/Unders:
Other Props: 0 - 1 (-0.25 units)
Handicapped: 0 - 3 (-4 units)

0-0,.99 unit Wagers:0 - 2
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 0 - 2
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 0 - 1
3-3.99 unit Wagers: none
4-4.99 unit Wagers: none
5-5.99 unit Wagers: none
6+ unit Wagers:  none

I mostly bet a few of these for fun. Truth is I didn't know enough about all but the top two teams to really do much here.

Goals for Next Year:

• Don't bet what you don't know.

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Mid Season Invitational 2018


Win-Loss: 14 - 7 (66.66%)
Net Units Gained: +15.74 units
Avg Yield per Wager: +31.79798%
Avg Wager: 2.357 units

Moneyline: 8 - 5 (+4.5 units)

Live/In-Game: 2 - 0 (+4.6 units)
Over/Unders: none
Other Props: 1 - 2 (-0.58 units)
Handicapped: 3 - 0 (+7.22 units)

0-0,.99 unit Wagers: 0 - 1
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 5 - 2
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 3 - 2
3-3.99 unit Wagers: 2 - 1
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 2 - 0
5-5.99 unit Wagers: 2 - 1
6+ unit Wagers: none

In years past I'd do prediction articles. If you dig deep enough on here you can find them. I was pretty damn accurate too. My tournament record/results were way better than my regular season reads most of the time so when I had an excellent MSI I honestly wasn't surprised. The other tournaments however....

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Rift Rivals 2018

Win-Loss: 19 - 24 (44.186%)
Net Units Gained: -17.37 units
Avg Yield per Wager: -14.2377%
Avg Wager: 2.837 units

Moneyline: 4 - 8 (-11.13 units)
Live/In-Game: 0 - 1 (-9.0 units)
Over/Unders: 13 - 10 (+2.6 units)
Other Props: 1 - 4 (-0.65 units)
Handicapped: 1 - 1 (+0.81 units)

0-0,.99 unit Wagers: 0 - 2
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 1 - 3 
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 11 - 13
3-3.99 unit Wagers: 1 - 2
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 0 - 1
5-5.99 unit Wagers: 3 - 2
6+ unit Wagers:  3 - 1

Yeesh... Rift Rivals is a really weird tournament and I'll be the first to admit I was sippin' on the Korean Kool-Aid a bit too much. In hindsight this looks REALLY REALLY stupid after knowing how Worlds turned out but at the time I didn't think I was too far out of line and just had a bad tournament. Boy was I wrong.

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World Championships 2018


Win-Loss: 41 - 53 (43.62%)
Net Units Gained: -15.545 units
Avg Yield per Wager: -9.933%
Avg Wager: 1.68 units

Moneyline: 8 - 12 (+6.455 units)

Live/In-Game: 3 - 2 (+2.23 units)
Over/Unders: 26 - 23 (-5.585 units)
Other Props: 1 - 7 (-2.82 units)
Handicapped: 3 - 8 (-15.825 units)

0-0,.99 unit Wagers: 6 - 3
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 26 - 36
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 4 - 6
3-3.99 unit Wagers: 0 - 2
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 0 - 2
5-5.99 unit Wagers: 2 - 2
6+ unit Wagers:  3 - 1

We all know how upset heavy this Worlds tournament was and I'd like to give mad props to a few of the "system" style guys that treated this like the soccer World Cup and just even bet underdogs throughout the group stage. You would have been WAY UP if you just placed single unit wagers on every single dog in the group stage. It's impressive and a strategy I may attempt to employ, even experimentally next year. A lot of you know just how dreadful this tournament was for me. The only real regret I have is trusting Gen.G. I had absolutely no reason other than "they're a historically good Korean team" to trust them while other teams at least showed me something. I guess I believed in their tournament buff. If you read me all year you know I couldn't stand this team. I actually lost more money betting Gen.G than any other individual team this year by a lot. They were the subject of many heavy wagers and heavy disappointments but for whatever reason I convinced myself they'd be fine for this tournament which I regret. 

Other than Gen.G what is there to say? This was a wild and crazy tournament and I've honestly never had more fun losing money. 

Goals for Next Year:

• Don't assume you will do better at tournaments.
• Consider alternate strategies.

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2018 Full Annual Results

(according to master sheet)

Win-Loss: 692 -  649 - 1 push (51.603%)
Net Units Gained: +10.3275 units 
Avg Yield per Wager: -0.83%
Avg Wager: 1.98 units

(according to these individual regional sheets tallied totals)

Moneyline: 222 - 194 (-6.963 units)

Live/In-Game: 56 - 31 (+16.461 units)
Over/Unders: 201 - 175 (-8.7095 units)
Other Props: 56 - 86 (+0.4225 units)
Handicapped: 153 - 162 (+9.413 units)

0-0,.99 unit Wagers: 89 - 100 (47.09%)
1-1.99 unit Wagers: 220 - 257 - 1 (46.025%)
2-2.99 unit Wagers: 147 - 130 (53.0685%)
3-3.99 unit Wagers: 73 - 71 (50.694%)
4-4.99 unit Wagers: 62 - 40 (60.78%)
5-5.99 unit Wagers: 47 - 32 (59.49%)
6+ unit Wagers: 50 - 18 (73.529%)



DATA DISCREPANCIES:

I lost or duplicated some games at some point along the line because in my master sheet I have 1331 total bets made. I know at least a few of these were "add-on" wagers that are entered as two separate entries in my sheet for the same game, likely because odds changed or I felt like tacking on. There were, from what I can find, six of those scenarios. I'm also missing four wins and one loss somewhere along here but I'm not going to fret over this. I'm also missing 0.2965 units, likely from missed % translations from unit size changes. It was more than likely a clerical error on my part and likely wouldn't have a huge impact on our totals for the year.

A few of these won't add up correctly because I made corrections about halfway through so some of the props and O/U counts might be wrong since, for quite some time, I had them labeled generically as "props" before I eventually separated them into O/U and other props. I went through and made the corrections within the regional sheets I have but not in my overall sheet. Other than that there shouldn't be many discrepencies and if there are they're probably from me inputting something wrong.

Betting: November 3rd (Worlds 2018 Grand Finals)

SNAP BACK TO REALITY! After a dreadful quarterfinals for me we finally get back on track with an absolutely huge semifinal. Combined with live bets my semifinal predictions cut our ridiculous deficit more than in half to get us closer to the black again. We probably aren't going to get there with only one match left but at least we won't be buried deep in the ground after this tournament.

In all seriousness if you didn't see this kind of result coming I think you were just a tad delusional. I know there were some cappers and fans out there that had legitimate reasons to think these matches could be closer but if you really thought G2 and Cloud 9 had good odds to win these matches I think you're sippin' the Western hype train Kool-Aid a little too much. We ended up 9-1 in our picks and it all happened more or less exactly how I predicted (ok I thought G2 would take a game but whatever). The deficiencies of both Cloud 9 and G2 were on full display and, dare I say it, their luck ran out.

That said this was a tremendous showing for both teams and they far exceeded even my wildest expectations for them. Cloud 9 managed to take down a difficult, albeit not as difficult as we initially thought, group to get into quarters and then soundly defeated a team that was grossly underprepared for them in Afreeca with two rookies and a roster that looked like a trainwreck only months ago. It's quite impressive. G2 also had it's fair share of questions going into this year with their roster changes and a rough start but they figured it out and performed excellently here as well. Is the gap closing? I discussed this in my retrospective piece but honestly we won't know until we have more data so time will tell. There is one thing for sure though, the Western teams no longer fear the Koreans and Chinese teams so that advantage is now gone for them and should prove interesting moving forward.

Now onto the finals....

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Invictus Gaming (-149, -1.5 @ +120)

vs Over/Under 32:00, total kills 23.5

Fnatic (+114, +1.5 @ -164)

(Invictus 3-1 is the book favored prop with the lowest odds)

(The lines for this game are all over the place. As of this writing you can find Fnatic +129 on Pinnacle, +110 on BetWay, +137 on Unikrn. I've even seen Fnatic as slight favorites immediately after the games last week but I can't seem to find that anymore. The point being lines for this are kinda all over the place and the books don't seem to feel too strongly about this.)


We've seen this matchup in three individual games in this tournament already from group stage and man oh man were they great games! I'm going to take a bit of a different angle in discussing this grand final because the truth is I don't feel strongly either way so I'm going to instead offer some insight on how I see each side winning or losing this series and the strengths and weaknesses each team has based on their performance this tournament and against each other. My hope is that it will give you some idea on how you may want to bet either side if you choose to do that.

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Fnatic

Fnatic have looked absolutely incredible ever since their second day of group stage action winning nine out of their last ten individual games since then (3-0 on final day of groups, 3-1 vs EDG, 3-0 vs Cloud 9). They've shown incredible versatility both in the draft and in willingness to play both scrappy and controlled styles. They've tustled with Invictus and EDG in the early game and won, and played a more controlled macro game and still won. Playing against both EDG and IG have really given Fnatic a lot of experience against the aggressive stylings with perhaps the two most aggressive LPL lineups. Collectively they're 5-2 against them so let's dive into this a bit and see what they did wrong and right in these games.

(FNC vs IG Group Stage Game 1)

In both Fnatic losses the LPL team had red side counter. Against Invictus in group stage they used their counterpick in the midlane where Rookie used his Syndra with great success against Caps' Swain but interestingly chose a matching tank top matchup where neither really has priority in Sion vs Ornn and opting for the Kaisa + Leona into a first pick Rakan instead of stealing the Xayah away. In theory this is two matched lanes (neither has priority) and one heavy priority avantage in mid lane meaning Invictus were trying to leverage their mid lane + jungle advantage to create advantages on the map. In this game Ning took a risky top side buff steal into double scuttle opening that turned into a first blood on bottom side and the game was more or less in IG's favor from that point forward. He was able to do this because of Syndra's early strength against Swain and Xin Zhao's potent dueling potential. They effectively leveraged their advantage and turned it into a win.

(FNC vs EDG Quarterfinals Game 1)

Against EDG, Fnatic handed over Xayah + Rakan in order to secure Irelia with their first pick which is fine but they then opted into the extremely passive bottom lane of Ezreal + Alistar which has difficulty trading and more importantly gets shoved early providing no priority from the bottom side of the map to assist their jungler or make proactive roams early in the game. In both of these games Fnatic was willing to double blind pick their solo laners from blue side, a strategy that's had mixed success at this tournament but has mostly served them well. Fnatic ended up losing this game based mostly off of both bot and mid lane losing. Regardless of the weird level one that helped put bot lane behind this wasn't looking good from the draft as EDG had early advantage in two lanes and Fnatic weren't able to play defense well enough to avoid getting bulldozed in this game.

In both losses Fnatic made the correct adjustment to acquire lane matchups that didn't just automatically punt the early game. Against EDG they didn't go with the Alistar + Ezreal again and opted instead to shift to Sivir + Braum twice and Xayah + Thresh in game four. Against Invictus they did an Urgot + Aatrox double blind which is arguably the strongest possible in the game right now which really put Invictus in a bind (but this was also from red side). The case and point being Fnatic have made errors in the draft but seem to have learned their lesson. Their main goal in the draft is to select lanes that don't lose badly.

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Invictus Gaming

Invictus had a significantly harder road getting here in my opinion because they had to go through my pre-tournament favorite KT Rolster in an absolute slobberknocker of a series. In terms of identity I think we all know who Invictus are at this point. They are all in on the early game and look to transition leads they gain there into fast wins. Invictus are a lot more one dimensional than Fnatic are and while their domestic record while trailing in games was one of the best in the LPL it wasn't good and it's definitely not where their strength lies. Generally speaking this is a team that wins early or loses but they just so happen to be the best early game team on the planet.

Typically early game teams need big advantages in the draft to secure two winning lanes or one dominant lane and two neutral lanes and because of this Invictus are one of the few teams in this tournament that heavily favor red side. They've played nine games there with a record of 6-3 and a 5-1 blue side record. Their solo lanes were consistently able to get advantages (with TheShy playing) in both blind and counterpick scenarios even against teams with potent solo lane threats like KT Rolster and G2 eSports. This is where Invictus gain their edge against other teams. Even in Invictus' losses their solo lanes have outperformed their counterparts in lane.

The reliance on lane domination and ability to do it is both a blessing and a curse to this team. It makes their drafts fairly predictable and really corners them into certain picks when they could otherwise remain open and flexible but nobody fights themselves out of a corner better than Invictus does. Much like a football team with an exceptional quarterback, sometimes you can see it coming and still have difficulty stopping it. Invictus are exceptional in the early game and in terms of individual talent and they showed just how dominant they can be in their first two victories over KT Rolster who are also an excellent early game team.

-------------------------------------------------

The Matchup

The three games these teams played in group stage were some of the most entertaining and competitive games in this entire tournament and showed us a lot about the good and bad both Invictus and Fnatic have to offer. This is looking like it's going to be one hell of a final. I have these teams damn close to even. They've both performed incredibly well this tournament. I won't be making any heavy selections on the side in this matchup but I am leaning toward Invictus and here's why:

• Invictus have had a more difficult road getting here as they had to go through KT Rolster while Fnatic only had to go through EDG. To me there is a big enough difference in the quality of those teams that I'm putting some weight on it.
• Fnatic gave up fairly large leads in EDG in three of their quarterfinals games but EDG were unable to leverage them into further advantages.
• Invictus have a clear gameplan and have won with it despite teams planning against it.
• Invictus have the best individual player in the matchup in Rookie
• In the first three games between these two teams we saw two games with Duke (a win and a loss) and a loss from TheShy in a match that he was dominating in on Fiora and his team just botched the split push.
• Invictus had leads against Fnatic and botched them, something I don't expect them to do again this time around.
• TheShy and Ning are both playing at an extremely high level right now compared they showed earlier in the tournament something that wasn't the case in group stages when they faced the first time.

The pro-Fnatic side is that they're more versatile and were able to bend but not break on defense both against EDG and IG. There is something to be said for that but the current state of the game heavily favors early leads and I don't like betting against a team that has to play from behind (unless its old SK Telecom). Invictus have also shown a tendency to make macro mistakes which is a reason to bet against them. Fnatic are also capable of taking the fight to Invictus which is worth noting as well. To me it's a lot easier for Invictus to make Fnatic play their game than the other way around and because of that I think the overall feel will be Invictus dictating the pace of this series. I have a hard time going against that in a five game series. 

I like Invictus to win this series 3-2 but could honestly see this going either way so select a side at your own discretion. If you like value betting then Fnatic is almost definitely the play as they're underdogs in most places ranging from +100 to +120. While I may not like either side in this series as a bettor, there are a few other picks I like.

I'm taking the UNDER 32:00 on the first two games of this series. With prep time I expect these will go one way or the other in a hurry. I don't normally like taking the under in a best of five in a big spot like a Worlds grand finals as there can be some nerves that make players hesitate but I think these teams are both so incredibly confident in how they play the game that I don't see as much hesitation especially in the first game or two. I'd expect more of that later in the series. This won't be a slow starting series like a lot of best of fives are. 

Numbers supporting the UNDER 32:00 in maps 1 and 2:

• Invictus vs KT Rolster: Game 1 29:59, Game 2 25:53
• Invictus vs G2: Game 1 29:07, Game 2 26:55
• Fnatic vs EDG: Game 1 27:20, Game 2 26:17
• Fnatic vs Cloud 9: Game 1 25:11, Game 2 32:51

In all of those games only one was longer than 32:00. In the group stage, both of IG and Fnatic's first two games were under 27:17 and 28:43. I suspect this series will start fast and end slow. 

While I don't think it's particularly likely, there have been two 3-0 finals in Worlds history. SK Telecom in Season 3 were a team that were simply playing on a different level than the rest of the world. As somebody that was there in person I was in no way surprised AT ALL by that result. SKT were far and away better than every other team that year. The second was Samsung against SK Telecom last year which was a bit of a shocker. I was initially going to just slam 10 units on the -303 OVER 3.5 maps played because it feels like free money but the truth is weird things can happen on the big stage here. If one of these teams jumps out to a lead I could see it self destructing. I won't be placing that wager like I initially thought I would, I talked myself out of it and this tournament has been so weird and I'm down quite a bit that I'd prefer not to punt it away in a flukey 3-0 situation if that were to happen.

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -105 (2 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -105 (2 units)

Prop: EXACT Invictus 3-2 @ +410 (1 unit)

------------------------------------------

Above all else I encourage everybody to just enjoy this final. These are two incredibly entertaining teams to watch and hopefully we get to see a competitive finals!