March 9th Recap:
(WILL UPDATE THE REST OF RECAP AFTER LCS TONIGHT)
LPL: 6 - 3 (+4.97 units)
LCS: 0 - 2 (-1.0 units)
Parlays:+0.46 units
TOTAL: 6 - 5 (+4.43 units)
Anyway... The LPL is really frustrating for that exact reason. Even the good teams are sloppy, clumsy, and don't make great decisions a lot of the time. I ranted and raved about this on Twitter this morning saying that, in so many words, if the LPL thought even a little tiny bit about some of the things they do that they'd have 9 world championships by now. The chops are there, the players are there, they just don't think so often and it's frustrating. I want to see good, high-level, League of Legends. I don't care where, I don't care who. This isn't me hating on the LPL. It's just frustrating know how good this league could be and not meeting that expectation. I'm going to put together a stream one afternoon and just record some examples to further illustrate my point. While it could be that their weakness is their greatest strength, I really do think that with just a little more brains over brawn they could demolish everyone. I'm not talking about making the LPL into disciplined surgeons, just asking them to think a little more than they do. I won't waste anymore space here, just read my tweets from this morning on the topic if you want more.
Cloud 9 snowball games so so well. It's a joy to watch. They never take their foot off the gas.
Liquid drafted themselves into a hole yet again, this time with Doublelift in the lineup. I had a long discussion on Twitter about it that I'd direct you all to. Just happy I dodged this bullet.
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LPL (China)
Week 2 - Day 2
LGD -102 (+1.5 @ -313)
vs
Dominus -141 (-1.5 @ +222)
Lineups:
LGD: Lies, Peanut, Yuuki, Kramer, Chance (sub)
Dominus: Natural, Xiaopeng, Xiaowei (sub), GALA, Mark
So I know I said I was going to be on underdogs because the value and all the other reasons I've discussed a million times on here, but I'm going to have a tough time with this one. LGD are so difficult to trust as a team. They have this constant revolving door for their roster and it's so difficult for their players to develop any kind of chemistry with the constant changes but I think with almost six weeks to prepare for these matches that we actually get to avoid that, at least for one match. On paper I like LGD's "expected" roster more. If they run out the lineup we saw in week one I like them over Dominus. I rated Dominus in the C tier and LGD in the D tier but it was almost entirely based on consistency. In a weird way, I think this is probably the best we'll see from LGD this season. They have two of the three best players in this game in Peanut and Kramer. As an added bonus, if you believe in karma, it's Kramer's birthday.
Cover your nose and take the dog and the over maps. Three maps have been played in 9 out of 17 series so far this season including two yesterday and the last four in the original week one. I think given that the LPL tends to be a lot looser and often sloppy, the current Season 10 metagame being as punishing to mistakes as it is, and that we're working with likely bottom half teams, I like the over maps quite a bit.
Map Total: OVER 2.5 maps @ -102 (1.02 units)
Moneyline: LGD @ +100 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
---
Suning Gaming -141 (-1.5 @ +222)
vs
eStar Gaming -102 (+1.5 @ -313)
Lineups:
Suning: Biubiu, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt
eStar: Xiaobai, Wei, Cryin, Wink, ShiauC
eStar are going to be an interesting team to keep an eye on. Before the season, the shoddy, last minute assembly of their roster of unexciting players looked primed to be an absolute dumpster fire but then they came out and 2-0'd Rogue Warriors and 2-1'd the world champions FunPlus Phoenix (with Khan). My gut immediately tells me "beginners' luck" and with some review of those matches you could see the classic week one sloppiness of both favorites in an already high variance metagame. The thing is, now we get to see eStar with an extended offseason of sorts with the six week hiatus. They should be closer to form than you'd expect a roster that was thrown together at the last minute. In other words, they've had closer to the same amount of practice time as everyone else while that was a major concern before.
I still don't think this roster is anything particularly special. That may come as a bit of a surprise to a team that beat the world champions in their second match, but keep in mind that it was not only week one, but this is also the highly variant LPL in a highly variant metagame that punishes mistakes very hard. Plenty of "better" teams are going to lose games in this metagame. That said, I don't think eStar is necessarily bad automatically either. I'm not ignoring their week one performance, I'm simply not putting as much weight on it.
My gut is telling me to fade the hype and take Suning but again, the week one effect is in full swing here.I don't want to overreact to Huanfeng's tremendous performance in the scrim league but considering how poor Weiwei was and that I still had Suning in the B tier even with him makes me a tad more optimistic for this team. I was able to find a -115 at 5Dimes.
Like the last series, I also like both of these to go over the game total in ugly, new week one, Season 10 fashion.
Map Total: OVER 2.5 maps @ +105 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
Moneyline: Suning -115 (1.15 units)(5Dimes)
LGD -102 (+1.5 @ -313)
vs
Dominus -141 (-1.5 @ +222)
Lineups:
LGD: Lies, Peanut, Yuuki, Kramer, Chance (sub)
Dominus: Natural, Xiaopeng, Xiaowei (sub), GALA, Mark
So I know I said I was going to be on underdogs because the value and all the other reasons I've discussed a million times on here, but I'm going to have a tough time with this one. LGD are so difficult to trust as a team. They have this constant revolving door for their roster and it's so difficult for their players to develop any kind of chemistry with the constant changes but I think with almost six weeks to prepare for these matches that we actually get to avoid that, at least for one match. On paper I like LGD's "expected" roster more. If they run out the lineup we saw in week one I like them over Dominus. I rated Dominus in the C tier and LGD in the D tier but it was almost entirely based on consistency. In a weird way, I think this is probably the best we'll see from LGD this season. They have two of the three best players in this game in Peanut and Kramer. As an added bonus, if you believe in karma, it's Kramer's birthday.
Cover your nose and take the dog and the over maps. Three maps have been played in 9 out of 17 series so far this season including two yesterday and the last four in the original week one. I think given that the LPL tends to be a lot looser and often sloppy, the current Season 10 metagame being as punishing to mistakes as it is, and that we're working with likely bottom half teams, I like the over maps quite a bit.
Map Total: OVER 2.5 maps @ -102 (1.02 units)
Moneyline: LGD @ +100 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
---
Suning Gaming -141 (-1.5 @ +222)
vs
eStar Gaming -102 (+1.5 @ -313)
Lineups:
Suning: Biubiu, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt
eStar: Xiaobai, Wei, Cryin, Wink, ShiauC
eStar are going to be an interesting team to keep an eye on. Before the season, the shoddy, last minute assembly of their roster of unexciting players looked primed to be an absolute dumpster fire but then they came out and 2-0'd Rogue Warriors and 2-1'd the world champions FunPlus Phoenix (with Khan). My gut immediately tells me "beginners' luck" and with some review of those matches you could see the classic week one sloppiness of both favorites in an already high variance metagame. The thing is, now we get to see eStar with an extended offseason of sorts with the six week hiatus. They should be closer to form than you'd expect a roster that was thrown together at the last minute. In other words, they've had closer to the same amount of practice time as everyone else while that was a major concern before.
I still don't think this roster is anything particularly special. That may come as a bit of a surprise to a team that beat the world champions in their second match, but keep in mind that it was not only week one, but this is also the highly variant LPL in a highly variant metagame that punishes mistakes very hard. Plenty of "better" teams are going to lose games in this metagame. That said, I don't think eStar is necessarily bad automatically either. I'm not ignoring their week one performance, I'm simply not putting as much weight on it.
My gut is telling me to fade the hype and take Suning but again, the week one effect is in full swing here.I don't want to overreact to Huanfeng's tremendous performance in the scrim league but considering how poor Weiwei was and that I still had Suning in the B tier even with him makes me a tad more optimistic for this team. I was able to find a -115 at 5Dimes.
Like the last series, I also like both of these to go over the game total in ugly, new week one, Season 10 fashion.
Map Total: OVER 2.5 maps @ +105 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
Moneyline: Suning -115 (1.15 units)(5Dimes)
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Parlays:
none for now
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