LPL Spring 2020
Week 1 Day 1 Recap
Moneyline: Invictus Gaming @ +166 (1 unit)
Moneyline: LNG eSports @ -162 (1.62 units)
Spread: LNG eSports -1.5 @ +162 (0.5 units)
We had a great start on opening day hitting Invictus as +166-+175 underdogs and LNG, who probably would have 2-0'd had they banned Aphelios in game one, at least making us a half unit on our moneyline/spread split.
For you new comers, I have a 1 to 5+ unit range which is a blend of confidence in the research, perceived value, and a little tiny bit of "gut." I know people hate that word in these parts but I've been at this for awhile and I'm willing to listen to it when it's telling me something fishy is going on.
For you new comers, I have a 1 to 5+ unit range which is a blend of confidence in the research, perceived value, and a little tiny bit of "gut." I know people hate that word in these parts but I've been at this for awhile and I'm willing to listen to it when it's telling me something fishy is going on.
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LPL Spring 2020
Week 1 Day 2
Rogue Warriors -305 (-1.5 @ +106)
vs
eStar Gaming +218 (+1.5 @ -143)
This is a bit of a strange one. I have these two teams rated as the bottom two teams in the entire league with RW at #16 and eStar #17 but the catch is that I put a tier between the two. eStar didn't figure out their lineup until this past week and unless they've had it and only officially announced last week, which is certainly possible, they are basically many weeks behind on practice AND bringing generally weaker players to the table. I have never given out an F Tier in a major region. Even Jin Air last year didn't earn that. It's reserved for teams that probably shouldn't be in the league they're in and I do think that COULD be the case here.... but there's a ton of unknowns.
I'm operating under the assumption that eStar has essentially been thrown together last minute, is completely unorganized, and even though the owner has managed a successful challenger team in Young Miracle, more or less threw this together on the fly but there is a non-zero chance that these players just have some instant chemistry.
Rogue Warriors are a bad team. They struggled all last year even with stud marksman player ZWuji shining bright. They brought in a few fresh faces this offseason. Ruby is the one I'm most optimistic about but generally this wasn't exactly a highly graded offseason. As a matter of fact I was really disappointed with this team for not aggressively going after some players to foster their budding star in ZWuji. Maybe I'm wrong but Rogue Warriors basically moved laterally from last season where they were one of the worst teams in the league.
I'm actually going to roll with eStar here even though I put them in my F Tier. This early in the season there's a lot of strange things that happen. Some teams click right away, others don't. Some teams have put a ton of practice in, others haven't. Some players and teams take time to get comfortable and shake the rust off. There is a lot of sloppy play while people figure things like the metagame, new individuals on both teams, and general feel of the new season in professional play. The result of all this is some strange results. Sometimes you see teams that just clicked right away stomp teams that are eventually way better than they are while they're figuring things out. Sometimes, like we saw this morning, the world champions make some boneheaded mistakes.
Combine the rust, variance, wildcards/unknown players, the overall snowbally-ness of the game right now, and the fact that I just don't think this Rogue Warriors team is very good and I think we have a recipe for an upset here. Maybe eStar are exactly what I think they are, a team that was just thrown together, isn't practiced, and doesn't belong but if they're going to win some games it'll either be right here, early in the year against one of the other bad teams OR later once they've had time to grow. I don't really know if we're getting "value" per se, but I do think this number is good enough to take a shot on in the opening week with so many unknowns.
Spread: eStar +1.5 maps @ -140 (1.43 units)(5Dimes)
Moneyline: eStar +218 (0.5 units)
Spread: eStar -1.5 maps @ +570 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
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I'm operating under the assumption that eStar has essentially been thrown together last minute, is completely unorganized, and even though the owner has managed a successful challenger team in Young Miracle, more or less threw this together on the fly but there is a non-zero chance that these players just have some instant chemistry.
Rogue Warriors are a bad team. They struggled all last year even with stud marksman player ZWuji shining bright. They brought in a few fresh faces this offseason. Ruby is the one I'm most optimistic about but generally this wasn't exactly a highly graded offseason. As a matter of fact I was really disappointed with this team for not aggressively going after some players to foster their budding star in ZWuji. Maybe I'm wrong but Rogue Warriors basically moved laterally from last season where they were one of the worst teams in the league.
I'm actually going to roll with eStar here even though I put them in my F Tier. This early in the season there's a lot of strange things that happen. Some teams click right away, others don't. Some teams have put a ton of practice in, others haven't. Some players and teams take time to get comfortable and shake the rust off. There is a lot of sloppy play while people figure things like the metagame, new individuals on both teams, and general feel of the new season in professional play. The result of all this is some strange results. Sometimes you see teams that just clicked right away stomp teams that are eventually way better than they are while they're figuring things out. Sometimes, like we saw this morning, the world champions make some boneheaded mistakes.
Combine the rust, variance, wildcards/unknown players, the overall snowbally-ness of the game right now, and the fact that I just don't think this Rogue Warriors team is very good and I think we have a recipe for an upset here. Maybe eStar are exactly what I think they are, a team that was just thrown together, isn't practiced, and doesn't belong but if they're going to win some games it'll either be right here, early in the year against one of the other bad teams OR later once they've had time to grow. I don't really know if we're getting "value" per se, but I do think this number is good enough to take a shot on in the opening week with so many unknowns.
Spread: eStar +1.5 maps @ -140 (1.43 units)(5Dimes)
Moneyline: eStar +218 (0.5 units)
Spread: eStar -1.5 maps @ +570 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
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JD Gaming -457 (-1.5 @ -123)
vs
OMG +295 (+1.5 @ -112)
So you know by now via my tier list or The Gold Card Podcast that these are the two teams that I think the market is most incorrect on. They are two teams I'm heavy on in the futures market going into the season to win the split. I had JDG in my S+ tier along with FunPlus. The addition of Loken not only fixes their biggest problem but in arguably the best possible way. JDG are going to go from a -10 to a +10 at ADC, that's a HUGE SWING! Similarly, OMG fixed all of their problem spots with excellent players. I had them rated in my S tier, slightly below where I had JDG.
I think both of these teams could end up challenging FunPlus for the title this split. Do I think JDG is better? A bit yes but they're both excellent teams. Should JDG be favored here? Probably, but this number is absolutely obscene! Why the hell are two similarly rated teams this far apart? Because the market is looking primarily at last year. This line should probably be something like JDG -120 or -130. This early in the season where variance tends to be pretty high due to the reasons discussed in last match's writeup with all the different pre-season dynamics I tend to love underdogs as it is. I especially love underdogs that are decent teams but here we're getting underdogs that are both excellent and both relatively even. I don't usually go this heavy this early in the season but this line is just way WAY off to me. Like I said this should be even money. We're going to take a shot with OMG here for a moderate amount. I can live with being wrong on this one when the value is this insane.
I'm going to play this in a way where we cover our other exposure plus some change if OMG even take a game and get paid off HUGE on an outright win.
Spread: OMG +1.5 maps @ -112 (2 units)
Moneyline: OMG +310 (1.25 units)
Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +593 (0.5 units)
I think both of these teams could end up challenging FunPlus for the title this split. Do I think JDG is better? A bit yes but they're both excellent teams. Should JDG be favored here? Probably, but this number is absolutely obscene! Why the hell are two similarly rated teams this far apart? Because the market is looking primarily at last year. This line should probably be something like JDG -120 or -130. This early in the season where variance tends to be pretty high due to the reasons discussed in last match's writeup with all the different pre-season dynamics I tend to love underdogs as it is. I especially love underdogs that are decent teams but here we're getting underdogs that are both excellent and both relatively even. I don't usually go this heavy this early in the season but this line is just way WAY off to me. Like I said this should be even money. We're going to take a shot with OMG here for a moderate amount. I can live with being wrong on this one when the value is this insane.
I'm going to play this in a way where we cover our other exposure plus some change if OMG even take a game and get paid off HUGE on an outright win.
Spread: OMG +1.5 maps @ -112 (2 units)
Moneyline: OMG +310 (1.25 units)
Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +593 (0.5 units)
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Parlays:
"Double Dog" Parlay (2): eStar ML + OMG ML @ +1130 (0.1 unit)
"Slopfest" Parlay (2): eStar +1.5 + OMG +1.5 @ +202 (0.2 unit)
Not sure if you read these, but can you get the write-outs earlier? Since these LPL games start at 4AM I'm not seeing them in time before I go to sleep lol.
ReplyDeleteI do try to get them done in the afternoon but it's not always possible.
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