Betting: February 15th (LCK, LPL, LMS, LEC)

LCK Spring 2019 W4D3 - February 15th:

So the story this week has been whether or not a weird thing will happen because of the break week. So far we haven't had anything besides one very odd game yesterday in the Jin Air series. For the most part things have gone as expected. I think this is another "according to plan" situation. Griffin should stomp this match. KT Rolster's only wins have been against the league worst Jin Air and debateably second worst in Afreeca. I don't think this KT squad is quite that bad and they're at least approaching the game the right way but their execution is just so bad and they've shown an inability to cleanly close out games. I do think KT are more of a middle of the pack team by seasons end but Griffin are just on a different plane of existence right now. 

I'm not touching this one. The odds are too far out of whack. If you're one of the spicy underdog bettors these are good odds for a KT team that has players that could conceivably steal a game here but I'll leave that to you. If you want to dabble in the UNDER 33:00 I actually don't think that's a bad number but Griffin have done a lot of splitting one over and one under. Typically they smash in game two after breaking the spirits of their enemies. I'll be abstaining there too. Other regions have opted to play on the hotfixed version of patch 9.3 but Korea I think is going to finish this cycle out on it so honestly anything could happen.

No wager (lean to UNDER 33:00)

If we consider the top three LCK teams to be Griffin, Sandbox, and SK Telecom then I think Kingzone are solidifying themselves as the #4 and I think they have more room to grow than Sandbox, who I believe might be due for some regression. Kingzone had a rough start but in hindsight their first two matches were against Griffin and Sandbox so those losses don't look so bad. They played well against SK Telecom and other than a weird punt to Gen.G have looked convincingly better than the rest of the league. Kingzone are a good team.

Hanwha Life are sorta floundering around with all these roster swaps and it's driving me insane. Going into the season I thought they'd be a little worse than last year and that has mostly turned out to be true but I just don't understand all these changes. I feel this team has the right idea they simply can't get into a rhythm. That said, Hanwha have shown us absolutely nothing against good teams. They're firmly ahead of the bottom of the table with convincing wins over Gen.G, Jin Air, and Afreeca as well as one over the middling KT Rolster. They did look quite good against Gen.G Wednesday morning but it's Gen.G.

I think the post-break weirdness factor is the only thing keeping me from firing heavier on this match. Regardless we'll be confidently taking Kingzone. They've not only improved with every match but have strong, decisive victories against teams similar or better than Hanwha like DAMWON. I also think Hanwha's strongest asset besides Lava, who has weirdly been on and off the bench, is their bottom lane of Sangyoon and Key and they have to face one of the strongest bottom lanes in Deft and Tusin in a matchup where I believe they'll struggle. Between the musical chairs of the roster, side selection, Kingzone's strongest lane likely handling Hanwha's biggest strength, and Kingzone overall looking like a much stronger team I feel confident enough to go bigger on this wager. We're simply not going to get value much better than this with Kingzone in a few weeks as they solidfy themselves as a playoff team so we need to fire now while the gettin' is good.

Moneyline: Kingzone -159 (3.5 units)

Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ +185 (1.5 units)


Parlay (2): KZ -1.5 maps + GRF -1.5 maps @ +276 (0.5 units)

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LPL Spring 2019 W4D1 - February 15th:

The LPL returns from it's two week break with a matchup between two very intriguing teams. One is RNG who have only played two series and without Uzi. The other is Vici look much improved this season, which may not be saying much compared to last year but still, improved. All three of their series have gone three games including a 2-1 victory against SinoDragon and 1-2 losses to likely playoff teams in EDward and Suning. They're aggressive and take the fight to you unlike anything they've done in the past two calendar years. It's promising but....

UZI IS BACK! Royal are a different team with Uzi in the lineup and after a short and well-deserved break after the long offseason the Eastern players go through with extra international tournaments immediately after Worlds we can hope to see him refreshed. This is the lineup a lot of people figured would start for RNG and I think with a couple weeks to relax and/or hammer out some ideas RNG should roll right over Vici and start their climb to the top of the table.

You know I'd say it's not just Uzi and that this whole team looked a little lost but there is a really good chance they just didn't give a damn about the first few weeks of the season knowing they had a two week break coming up. This lineup could have been a bit burnt out from a busy, shortened off season and really looked at the start of the season as tomorrow morning. Also Uzi and Karsa and simply two of the best of all time to play the game and if you consider that Karsa was solo carrying this team in a lot of their games already this season it can only improve with Uzi in the lineup. This should be a stomping.

Handicapped: RNG -1.5 maps @ -145 (4 units)

SinoDragon are a lot like what we'd consider a typical "Chinese" team. They're aggressive, love skirmishing, great team fighters, and while their macro game has holes they generally have the right approach to the game right now. They're kinda like a diet version of Snake from a couple years ago. Great deathball team with potential split push win cons too. SinoDragon are on of only a couple of teams we've seen play four series already. That said they've only really faced one top of the table team in EDward and struggled in that series. Decisive wins against Snake and Team WE as well as a really snowbally 1-2 loss to Vici where both teams seemed incapable of playing from behind make this team appear to be at least in the huge jumble in the middle of the LPL table. 

Rogue Warriors on the other hand have looked absolutely awful in my eyes. I know they have three games wins in four series which isn't abysmal but two of them were against LGD who look like they might be the worst team in the entire league and the other was against a JDG roster that's mostly brand new and honestly doesn't look that great yet either (or maybe never). ZWuji and Killua have been excellent and since replacing HuaTian, KongMing has been solid but I think this team looks better than they actually are. In game one of the LGD series this team was spoon-fed a massive lead by two completely moronic decisions by LGD early in the game and STILL punted their lead away multiple times. They're sloppy, careless, and I'm not even sure you can call them proactive when a team just gives you stuff like that. As a matter of fact, all of their game victories have come in this way. 

ZWuji looks like a promising young start but unfortunately I think this might be similar to Teddy's situation on downright awful Jin Air teams for most of his career. I don't think SinoDragon are the next big thing I just think Rogue Warriors are much worse than their record and more so their statistics show. I like SinoDragon here. They're a much stronger team fighting squad and have shown the ability to be effectively proactive even against better teams. 


Moneyline: SinoDragon -132 (1.5 units)

Handicapped: SinoDragon -1.5 maps @ +217 (0.5 units)


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No selections but I wanted to mention that the LMS is in flux right now. In the two weeks and seven matches per team before the break there are only three wins separating first from last and that includes four teams at five wins. It's pretty interesting and there is definitely value to be gained in actually combing through these VODs to see who are the showers and growers but I simply don't have the time to at the moment (hopefully soon). Flash Wolves still appear to be the best team based on the few matches I have watched but it's debateable. Anyway it's just interesting and thought I'd mention it.

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Spring 2019 LEC W5D1 - February 15th:

No lines posted yet,

It should be noted that the LEC have opted to play on the HOTFIXED Patch 9.3.

While there aren't lines posted on my primary book yet I do like the situation for Fnatic to beat Splyce. I know Fnatic have struggled but I simply can't see this team remaining bad. They have too much talent and experience. I also think Splyce is tremendously overrated so this is a weird version of the overrated/underrated concept and the spot is OUTSTANDING for Fnatic here in my opinion. I'll likely fire on them in the morning.

I'm also looking at Origen depending on the odds. I have a feeling to books will have them as slight favorites but I think anything less than -150 and I'm going to fire a couple on it for sure.

More on EU tomorrow.