I've definitely had a bit of a rough start so I'd like to go into a few things before this big Saturday slate hits us.
First, this is a 9+ month season and we're in this for the long haul. Bad stretches happen.
Second, don't immediately abandon your intial research based on a small sample size. I'm almost positive most of the "surprise" losers will get it together and this is just a blip on the radar. It just stings extra hard because it's the first take and it wasn't what you thought. Give it time.
Third, there are a few ways to go about early season betting. Abstain/Go light and wait until you know more (this is more conservative and totally fine) or plant your flag and take aggressive stances against lines that look out of whack based on pre-season misconception (what I prefer to do, higher risk, higher reward). The reason I do the ladder is that over the course of a season it becomes a lot harder to find severely inaccurate lines than early on IF you have the correct read. I mopped it up early season last year even with a few teams I was wrong about because I attacked based on my pre-season research. I'll continue doing the same.
Lastly, TRUST THE PROCESS (see "First, this is a 9+ month season..."). I'll admit I'm already skeptical on a team like Gen.G because I'm seeing fundamental flaws that aren't as easily fixed but I'm a lot less worried about a team like KT. I'll go into more detail but that's just one example. I'm definitely not worried about Fnatic after one loss. If anything I'll prolly fire heavy on them tomorrow. See what I mean?
Anyway onto the picks....
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LPL Spring 2019 - January 19th Schedule:
Team WE were so completely disappointing the entirety of last year and yet still they bring a weird 11 man hodge podge of mostly the same members. Who knows who is going to start. SinoDragon didn't look great in their debut but it was against the formidable EDG. I don't know what to think here honestly. If WE looks like the same team from last split then this metagame is downright awful for them. I said that many times last year and they just refused to adapt. That said with an entire offseason we'll just have to wait and see.
No wager
I'm really down on Rogue Warriors and they weren't exactly looking good in their debut against FunPlus either but similar to SinoDragon and EDG, FunPlus looks to be a formidable team (Top 6-8ish). JDG don't look as strong as last years lineup to me but they did bring in Levi of Gigabyte Marine's (and 100 Thieves) fame who appears well suited for the current state of the game. They also brought in Imp who, honestly it's sad to say, hasn't really looked good in awhile and might be done but perhaps a change of scenery helps. He may not even start over Bvoy. I liked Yagao a lot and Zoom a decent amount last split and with the addition of Levi I think maybe this team can compete for a top 6-8 spot as well. I like JD to sweep this for a light one unit wager. I'd put more down but we just haven't seen them yet but I definitely like this roster.
Handicapped: JDG -1.5 maps @ +106 (1 unit)
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LCK Spring 2019 - January 19th Schedule:
I'm not a huge fan of using transitive comparison but if we consider how poor Gen.G have started, how much credit can we really give DAMWON for their victory? They certainly deserve some because their composition was actually fairly nuanced and but they were also spoon-fed the broken Cassiopeia in game one. I'm not saying that it isn't an impressive win, after all, all they can do is take care of business. It's just something to consider.
I actually love KT Rolster in this spot. They had a few mishaps against Hanwha Life in games two and three but they utterly dominated game one and easily could have ran away with game two. There is a lot of hype on the new teams with their "new" approaches (hint: not all the new teams are approaching things as creatively as SK, Sandbox, etc). I put a lot of weight on my preseason evaluations and I tend to stick to them a lot longer than a lot of people do. It has served me well in the past. KT haven't shown me anything particularly alarming. Yes they lost to HLE with some sloppy play in game two and three but they haven't shown the complete ineptitude and cluelessness that Gen.G have so far. I'm honestly not even willing to rule out Gen.G getting it together eventually yet (although I'm getting close).
DAMWON looked clean against Gen.G and they've had a lot of reps from last year against Griffin. I felt that I was respecting them by putting them in that 7th spot in my power rankings and they'll certainly be a competitive team but I think people are way too low on KT based off of a couple games and a tad too high on DAMWON whooping on a Gen.G team that looks compeltely lost. It's exciting seeing the new generation bust onto the scene in almost every league so far but I also think we're disrespecting the veterans based off of week one a bit too much. Let's cool the jets and not overreact.
Moneyline: KT Rolster +142 (3 units)
I fully expect Griffin to smash this series but these odds are a bit too rich for my blood.
No wager
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LMS (Taiwan) Spring 2019 - January 19th Schedule:
I'm half tempted to put a couple units on J Team as I think they might end up being the strongest LMS team this split but I'm just not sure about the new look AHQ and as I said yesterday I'm going to just abstain from the LMS until I can get some VODs and see these teams in action.
No wager
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Turkish Champions League Spring 2019 - January 19th:
Similarly to the LMS I'm going to wait and see on MOST of these but it should be noted that the TCL has brought in A LOT of talent from out of the region for this split including Ruin, Kirei, Godbro, Bolulu, Hades, Gilius, Nagne (THROWBACK), Trick, and Wolf (formerly SKT). The TCL should actually be pretty sweet this split. Lot's of characters over there! There are lot of new domestic faces that I simply don't know the capabilities of but there were a handful of moves from team to team as well. Feel free to look into it on Leaguepedia but I'll spare you all the nitty gritty details for now.
I kinda like SuperMassive here. Royal Youth are Armut, Closer, GBM, Pilot, and Dumbledoge while SuperMassive return the same lineup except for Wolf replacing SnowFlower.
Moneyline: SuperMassive -208 (1 unit)
I'm going to look to see teams that maintained most of their members AND are heavy favorites in this first week as part of parlay. SuperMassive + Fenerbahce as well as Besiktas look like good options for this.
Parlay (2): SuperMassive -208 + Fenerbahce -400 @ -118 (0.25 units)
Parlay (3): SuperMassive -208 + Fenerbahce -400 + Besiktas -294 @ +148 (0.25 units)
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LEC (Europe) Spring 2019 - January 18th:
For a game that ended as fast as it did the Vitality vs S04 game was actually close and back and forth. Well played by both squads. A little confirmation bias but I think that makes me feel pretty good about my prediction about those two squads being solid. I don't like putting that much stock into one game but they both looked pretty sharp. Splyce actually stole a game from Excel who were firmly in the lead for the majority of the game. I'll be on Vitality for two units.
Moneyline: Vitality -172 (2 units)
I also kinda like Schalke against G2 for a small amount. To me G2 is a stronger team but not by this much. For two teams I have next to each other in my pre-season rankings and that both played well yesterday this line seems a bit out of whack to me.
Moneyline: Schalke 04 +226 (0.5 units)
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Additional/Misc Bets:
Parlay (3): KT Rolster +142 + Griffin -1.5 @ -345 + JTeam -1.5 @ -101 @+521 (0.5 units)
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