Worlds Season 5 - Metagame Predictions

     As someone that looks at League of Legends through an analytical lens I see no better way than predictions as a rough measurement of my personal success as an analyst when it comes to evaluating the game. However one can't break down a teams performance or how they matchup against other teams without first looking at the underlying metagame at any tournament for most non-static competitions.

     In this post I'll be highlighting what I believe to be the core pieces of the 2015 World Championship metagame and how they affect each other was well as the competing teams. I'll be doing a seperate write up for my group stage predictions shortly after this post so keep it tuned in!

Defining my tiers

• Tier 1 are champions that are powerful enough that they absolutely must have a specific answer to them and those answers are usually few and far between. The exception to this are champs that are so overly powerful at their given skill set that they're worth the risk of forcing the other team to attempt to counterplay it. (think Kassadin last few season, so broken that you just never let it through ever, for the record I don't think there are really any champions quite that extreme this season even if there are people with higher ban % than he had) Tier 1 champions will typically be over 75% picked/banned.
• Tier 2 champs are the counters to the top champs that are powerful enough to be effective in the meta, the best role players (tanks, split push, etc.), and the "safest" champions. They will sometimes eat bans because specific teams might have a specific comp that needs them off the board or a player is particularly good on one but the'yre in the 25-50% ban/pick rate usually.
• Tier 3 champs are typically composition specific or non-meta counterpicks. These champs are usually slightly lower on the power level than the tier 1 and 2 champs even if they're still strong. Rarely banned, usually a handful of picks.
• Tier 4 is where you see off meta specialist picks and cheese. Typically the power level is lacking so much that even when in a good scenario it's not quite good enough to overcome the power level of everything above it. Usually takes extraordinary individual skill or a lack thereof from the opponent to achieve success (Kikis' Jungle Twisted Fate for example).

Top Lane:

     Top lane still shoulders the biggest load in the current meta and has, for the most part, all year. There was a slight decrease with a shift toward the mid lane for patch 5.18 but for the most part it's still a top centric meta. For this reason there are a lot of power picks and strategies that depend on the top lane.

• Tier 1 - Gangplank, Fiora, Darius
• Gangplank will be the most contested pick in this world championship... in what universe did we think we'd ever say that? The power to instantly clear a creep wave, incredibly strong scaling damage, zone control power, a global ultimate, and the ability to be flexed to the mid lane are all powerful effects at the highest level of play. This will make him near 100% picked or banned for the tournament. 
• Fiora is the premium duelist for a lot of the carry top laners right now. It didn't take long after her rework for people to catch on to just how absurd she is in the hands of a skilled player. She can wreak havoc in small skirmishes and in team fights she demands an answer in the form of hard CC and focus fire because if she's not popped immediately the fight is going to end in her favor. Fiora is the most potent threat of the bunch but doesn't have the versatility that a Gangplank does.
• Darius, similar to Fiora, presents a potent question that needs an answer but the answer is slightly more achievable most of the time in that he's melee and can be kited by skilled players. He is, however, so ridiculously powerful in his zone of control that if you end up there it's more or less unbeatable. He is a power exception. Against ANY melee he wins. If his team has secondary engage or if he is the peel for a team then he's really tough to beat. He's a tanky bodyguard that can kill everything, tanks included, while healing. Another threat that needs to be killed immediately or you end up having to run away and stop fighting.
• Tier 2 - Shen, Irelia, Gnar, Maoki, Lissandra, Kennen, Malphite, Rumble
• Shen has an incredibly powerful ultimate with a lot of uses in professional play and "not lose" lane against pretty much everybody. Lacks hard wave clear and needs some time to gear up but he can usually gain map advantages because of his ultmate to pick up extra gold. Safe, sturdy, and a powerful utility champ that might even earn some bans from some teams.
• Irelia is a champ that a lot of high rated players are playing right now. She's always been the skill tester. The champ that good top laners use to asert their dominance over weaker ones. She has great matchups against alot of the power picks including being considered one of the best answer to Gnar.
• Gnar is safe, can bully certain champs, has limited bad matchups (Irelia, Top Reksai, Yasuo come to mind), and has a very powerful team fighting effect. Has the added bonus of being a ranged attacker for sieging and if he gets ahead early and takes the enemy tower he can opt into a Frozen Mallet build that more or less ends the laning phase on the spot for the opposing top laner keeping them pinned down because of the long lane. Gnar also does much better than his peers with limited gold. He's almost always relevant.
• Maoki is safe, simple, and versatile. He can be the frontline in a protect composition, the engage in a pick comp, and can even be a setup piece for Yasuo who is a premier pick at the moment (more on that later). He has wave clear, very strong CC and utility from his ult and saprolings as well as very few truly bad matchups.
• Lissandra is a champion that has not really seen play in recent months in any region but I have a feeling we'll be seeing a fair amount of her at worlds. She has strong matchups against a lot of the premium picks in both top and mid lane (Yasuo, Darius, Fiora, Diana, Fizz, Leblanc). Strong CC, decent wave clear, and the ability to be flexed to mid lane combine to present Lissandra as a strong pick for this tournament. I wouldn't be surprised if as the tournament went on she becomes higher priority.
• Kennen is another champ we haven't seen in the solo lanes for awhile but he's good for a lot of the same reasons that Lissandra is and against a lot of the same champions she is. Kennen's wave clear is slightly less reliable and is more skill intensive than Lissandra is but also bring the ability to be flexed to mid, top, OR support. We will see Kennen this worlds. It's just a matter of how much.
• Malphite may be a bit low on this list considering the last we left the pro scene in all regions he was starting to see some play primarily as a setup for Yasuo but in a few cases as a standalone champion. Has seen some play as support and is actually gaining popularity as a jungler in solo queue. I'm probably too low on him but I think we'll see more Kennen and Liss by the end of the tourney with so many Yasuo counters viable.
• Rumble has only been helped by recent item changes in past few patches and is still a potent pick on raw power level alone. He still has the same problems. Susceptable to lane swaps, vulnerable post ultimate, and has some brutal counter matchups at the very highest level of play. All of these weaknesses could be covered up with the insane amount of early and mid game damage he can dish out with The Equalizer which could be super effective with all of these low range champions running around.
• Tier 3 - Lulu, Olaf, Riven, Jax, Yasuo, Diana, Tahm Kench, Kayle, Vladimir, Ekko
• Lulu will see play in juggermaw style compositions as well as full press/fast push comps as safe, versatile wave clear early. 
• Olaf has seen play in both top and the jungle in compositions aimed at training (rushing down) the enemy's immobile ADC. Usually paired with Lulu, Sivir, or a super hard engage like Malphite.
• Riven is a more extreme version of Irelia to me. Good players will take it seeking to outplay inferior opposition. Slightly more counterpick dependent than the versatile Irelia but a lot more powerful when successful. A couple of the top laners in this tournament have some mean chops on Riven (Ssumday) as well as Faker in the mid lane.
• Jax is used by some as a lane counter to some of the power picks as he has a favorable matchup against the likes of Yasuo and Gangplank. He also scales as hard or more so than these champions so he can fill the carry role while not sacrificing as much as a typical counterpick might. Still has some problems vs high level players but certainly a powerful champion. ** If a split push meta develops at this tournament Jax will almost certainly be at the center of it if Gangplank, Fiora, and Yasuo are trying to do the same.
• Yasuo has a great matchup against Gnar and I'm sure there are some others that specific pros like against specific champions. He's a powerful champion that can utilize the longer lane in top for kills but as it stands he's mostly just the powerful champ being flexed to wherever he can succeed. I personally find him less effective in the top lane than the mid lane overall but we'll almost certainly see him either as a flex or a specific counter.
• Diana is in a similar situation to Yasuo. Both premium mid lane picks for raw power level and both strong enough to be worth the relatively low, but relevant, risk of putting them in the long lane. I doubt a team gets them both but at some point someone will definitely try the Diana + Yasuo wombo in a weird tango of a draft where people were playing keep away.
• Tahm Kench is Riot's newest addition. He has powerful implications as an anti carry for these melee carries like Diana + Yasuo that are so popular and he has ability to save his teammates multiple times in short succession. There is a lot of powerful stuff going on in this kit. It's just a matter of whether pros can actually lane with him. Seeing pretty even play in top, jungle, and support. I'd actually say theres a decent chance he becomes a surprisingly popular pick in the tourney due to his versatility and the mystery of the unknown as we really haven't had the chance to see him much in competitive play.
• Kayle is a great option against Yasuo and Diana and can punish assassins with her ultimate on either herself or allies. When Twitch is meta you almost always see Kayle in the top or mid lane. Jungle would've also been an option until devourer nerfs on this patch.
• Vladimir shows up from time to time in the pro scene and is a half decent mid laner right now. With so many dive compositions as relevant players you might see a Vladimir as some point in the mid or top lane.
• Ekko is getting a spot here because he can be tri flexed but you'll rarely see him in the top lane. The champ is certainly powerful but he's much higher tier as both a mid and a jungle. There is just a chance he gets seen in top from a draft flex or something.
• Tier 4 - Garen, Hecarim, Dr. Mundo, Galio, Ryze, Heimerdinger, Shyvanna, Nasus 
  
  **** Doubt we'll see these but they're who I'd bet on to make a one-of appearance. ****
• Hecarim is the least powerful of these champions but I'm sure we'll see him at least once or twice by a team or player that just feels its best in that situation. He's received too many nerfs to be a regular player.
• Dr. Mundo might actually show up as he has a decent matchup with a couple of the top picks and if people go heavy on magic damage because of a Yasuo ban and having Corki as an ADC there's a good chance you see the good doctor show up and stack magic resist.
• Galio is the same as Dr. Mundo for the most part except that he could maybe go mid. Coincidentally Galio is actually really really good against the current metagame (even Yasuo and the Juggernauts because of his ultimate) but I'm not sure his long cooldowns and lack of engage outside of flash make up for his strengths to see play more than once or twice. Hey he showed up last year!! ... lets forget about that one. Good luck Galio.
• Ryze is much much much weaker earlier than he used to be but he's still a late game powerhouse. He's also really good against melee carries like Diana and Yasuo so somebody might give him a try mid (faker) or top. 
• Heimerdinger is another good anti-dive champ. Still too cheesey for pro play in all likelihood. Too easily played around by pro players.
• Shyvanna can punish melee carries with her strong melee aoe and innate tankiness OR dive the enemy backline and punish those that try to peel. Good matchup against Yasuo, Diana, and others certainly helps the chance of us seeing her.
• Nasus the doge happens to have some decent matchups and can be another anti-dive champ. Wither can absolutely ruin Yasuo, Diana, and the juggernauts. Long shot to see him because of his time to scale but if a team can make it work it'll be rewarding.
• Interesting/Honorable Mentions: Garen is seeing a ton of play and bans on live but he's just NOTgood against professional teams. He does stone nothing if he can't get to you and even if he does it's not an unescapable deathtrap or anything. I'll put Renekton in here too because he matches up well and arguably the best top laner in this tournament Ssumday was a Renekton specialist for a long long time so it wouldn't surprise me to see him bust it out for a game if they're already clinched or something.

     Top lane is incredibly diverse and by far the deepest pool at worlds this year. With so many options available it's going to come down to the strongest players either having a deeper pool or simply outclassing in matchups or team play. The MVP of this tournament should be a top laner because their role is arguably the most important right now.

Jungle:

     The jungle meta received a few new additions with the rework of Skarner, and introduction of the reworked Runeglaive which brought back everyones favorite high heeled shadow dancer and spider lady. While not as diverse as a solo lane by nature, there is actually a lot of viable options in the jungle right now.

• Tier 1 - Elise, Skarner, Evelynn
• Elise received a number of small buffs back in 5.14 that include increasing the level 1 cocoon stun to 1.6 seconds from 1 second (making it a better 1 point wonder) and slight buffs to spiderling damage. Whenever Elise is viable she seems to be top priority amongst pro teams. Her early tower diving ability, strong dueling, and safe clear time as well as the ability to solo dragon early make her a potent, well rounded threat that can fit into a number of situations.She also has the ability to build Runeglaive or Cinderhulk and play a role as either a carry or utility tank with decent damage.
• Skarner the reworked crystal scorpion is very strong as a duelist, has a great clear, better ganks than he did in previous iterations because of his new slow, and with the crystals around the map becomes a mobile killing machine that still has the good old flash + impale combo that had him seeing play before. Tough to stop once he gets rolling.
• Evelynn can also do a number of different builds from full hybrid with Runeglaive to Blade of the Ruined King or even Cinderhulk + Rylais.Her build versatility and ever broken ability to be stealthed and avoid vision is an incredibly powerful in the pro scene and completely changes the way teams play. I'll note that not all junglers have had success with Evelynn but most can. She'll be a high priority pick this year.
• Tier 1.5 - Nidalee
•  Nidalee gets her own tier because she's rather polarizing. There are only a handful of junglers that really play her well enough at the highest level to make her a choice for them but the ones that do completely take over the game with her. Runeglaive only added to her absurd early game power spike and her ability to get the game snowballing in her direction is uncanny.
• Tier 2 - Ekko, Lee Sin, Gragas, Nocturne, Vi
• Ekko jungle saw a lot of play in NA LCS and China's LPL as well as Taiwan's LMS. His Parallel Convergence ability is much easier to actually land from out of vision than in vision which makes his ganks potentially devastating. For how difficult he is to kill due to his mobility and tankiness from his shield he actually does a fairly large amount of damage and benefits greatly from Runeglaive as well as Cinderhulk. I expect the more skirmish reliant LPL and LMS teams like Invictus, AHQ and Flash Wolves to place a higher priority on him but he'll certainly be seeing some play especialy because I feel a lot of bans will be thrown toward the top tier junglers.
• Lee Sin struggled for a lot of this season because the Cinderhulk junglers were so prevalent that he couldnt get early games rolling hard enough to pay for his relative uselessness in the mid and late game vs very tanky teams. With more people playing assassins and skirmish oriented junglers as well as a small buff to the Warrior enchantment I think there is a good chance you'll see Lee Sin. Also consider that some junglers at this tournament are historically excellent Lee Sin players and will likely lean on their old comfort pick to outplay inferior competition in some scenarios.
• Gragas has received some nerfs but the fat man's suite of crowd control and displacement abilities combined with his tankiness and quick clear time make him a strong pick in almost any meta. Also combines well with two of the premium picks in other lanes in Yasuo and Vayne so you'll see him as a setup piece for those in specific compositions.
• Nocturne received a buff to the range of his ultimate in a recent patch and saw plenty of play in solo queue as a Devourer enchantment jungler that could one shot ADC's with the use of Sated Devourer and Blade of the Ruined King. With Devourer slightly nerfed and Warrior slightly buffed you might see some Warrior Nocturne but even tanky Cinderhulk builds are perfectly fine because of his solid clear, high base statistics, and ability to dive the backline and deny vision. With so many global threats as viable choices such as Shen, Twisted Fate, Gangplank, and Soraka you'll almost certainly add Nocturne to the mix. He's been pushed by Riot and pro teams are usually pretty quick to pick up on a change like this most recent one.
• Vi also received a slight buff but this is more of a pick that people will fall back on as a comfort pick or "we just need to kill that person no matter what" button. She's still quite good and has a number of build options that are all viable. Surprised we haven't seen her more.
• Tier 3 - Jarvan, Reksai, Olaf, Rengar, Diana, Amumu, Khazix
• Jarvan is always better when the tank junglers are worse. His early game damage actually matters when that's the case and he still has one of the strongest engages in the game. He's also a comfort pick for a number of junglers in the tournament that have had great success on him in the past. Only reason he's tier 3 is because he can be exploited on his first clear because he tends to get pretty low so he's predictable.
• Reksai has received some nerfs but her overall kit is just really powerful for pro play. There are a lot of viable junglers right now and thats the only reason I have Reksai here and not higher up. 
• Olaf has the versatility to be flexed top and combined with Lulu, Zilean, Sivir, or another potent backline threat has the ability to dive and demolish ranged mages and ADCs. TSM used this to great affect in the playoffs and I'm sure other teams have him on their radar.
• Rengar is a powerful champion that always turns up come worlds time and there happens to be a number of strong Regnar players at this tournament this year (hello Kakao). Benefits from both Cinderhulk and Warrior buffs and has a semi global in the form of his ultimate that could be used as a counter ganking tool or one to make a pick before the globals from other champs are able to be used.
• Diana just has a strong kit. She's a strong mid, top, and jungle because her base stats are absurdly strong and having an engage like that is powerful as an assassin or a tank. She's also a potent split push threat. Runeglaive certainly helps in the jungle but even Cinderhulk Diana can be quite good.
• Amumu is vulnerable but can punish dive teams very very hard if he just stands between his backline and the enemy melee assassins. I'm putting him here because he might be used as an assassin/dive counterpick. He also has a very quick clear time and benefits from Rylai's buffs.
• Khazix certainly has the snowball potential to be relevent in a meta where tanks are slightly less frequent but I can't see more than a game or two.
• Tier 4 - Zac, Volibear, Fiddlesticks, Post nerf devourer Master Yi/Shyvanna/Udyr/Jax
  
  **** Doubt we'll see these but they're who I'd bet on to make a one-of appearance. ****
• Zac benefits from Rylai's and Liandry's buffs and is still a powerful Cinderhulk jungler with great ganks. He's also half decent against assassins because of his passive meaning they have to spend more time killing him after the initial kill. Not sure he brings enough to the table but it wouldn't surprise me to see somebody bust out the AP bruiser build as a cheese pick.
• Volibear is only here because somebody always tries it...
• Fiddlesticks is great as a counter dive if played right. Just really weak early because Runeglaive doesn't benefit him. He was one of the only junglers that misses the old Magus enchant.
• The Devourer Junglers include Shyvanna, Master Yi, Aatrox, Udyr, Jax, Kayle, and a few others. With Devourer being nerfed from 1 bonus damage per stack to 0.67 I just don't think you'll see them outside of maybe a game or two of a weaker team trying to make it work against a good team out of desperation. 

     The jungle isn't quite as deep as the top lane with a relatively large drop off in power happening from Tier 1 and 1.5 to the bottom of Tier 2 I expect there to be a number of bans and first picks directed at the top 4 junglers. The main focal point in a lot of drafts will be who gets the premium jungler and who doesn't or if neither does.

Mid Lane:

      Mid lane received an slight bump in overall priority this patch with a number of direct and indirect nerfs to Viktor and Azir as well as the rise of Yasuo, Diana, and Ahri once more. While not as deep or powerful as top lane I think we'll see more of the higher tier champions because of fewer bans spent on the mid lane and because mid laners will be picking blindly more often than usual in the draft so the well rounded, safe picks will be at a premium.

• Tier 1 - Orianna, Ahri, Lulu, Yasuo, Diana
• Orianna is back a she is every year around this time. With nerfs to Viktor and Azir (two of her worst matchups) and the rise of melee laners that she can punish with high level play she'll be the premier blind pick for mid lane 
• Ahri is another well rounded blind pick that has the mobility to kite out the ever popular dive comps we're seeing rise to popularity. 
• Lulu is the utility blind that can be flexed to top lane or support if necessary. She has high priority because she doesn't reveal a lot about your team and can more or less go even in most lane matchups in both top and mid. Base stat nerfs were not enough to affect how good of a blind pick she is as well as some strong synergies with hyper carries and champs like Olaf, Darius, and Fiora.
• Yasuo is powerful and demands answers within the draft itself. With recent nerfs to armor items and the rise in popularity of excellent setup pieces to his ultimate like Malphite, Alistar, Lee Sin, Gragas, and others, Yasuo will be one of the rock-paper-scissors makers drafts this year at Worlds with teams either having a counter comp or matchup ready of mind gaming the enemy with drafting the pieces without necessarily drafting him. Can also be flexed to top in certain matchups. 
• Diana is a base stat machine. She needs very little gear to help her do what she needs to do, she benefits greatly from teleport, Nashor's Tooth buffs, and the ability to play top, mid, and jungle. She poses a threat that needs to be answered with a counterpick and this kind of initiative and proactivity makes her a strong pick.
• Tier 2 - Leblanc, Azir, Lissandra, Twisted Fate, Ekko, Fizz, Gangplank, Viktor
• Leblanc is back boys and girls. Azir can no longer punish her with E knockup (hasn't been able to for awhile now). Viktor now needs more gold to get to his previous power spike. Yasuo, Diana, Ahri, and Orianna are all premium meta picks. Who is great against all of these? The Deceiver. 
• Azir has been nerfed a few times but his kit is simply too powerful to be ignored. In my opinion he presents the absolute strongest threat in League of Legends and if he's able to get to his first two items unchecked the game is more or less over. He's not tier 1 anymore simply because some counters have come into the meta and he's received a few nerfs but make no mistake the power level is still there it's just a tad bit more risky.
• Lissandra is a perfect attack on a primarily melee meta game with juggernauts, Diana, Yasuo, and others running around. She has excellent lane matchups in both top and mid against these champions as well as Ahri, Leblanc, Ekko, and Fizz. Due to her ability to be flexed, great tools to answer the current meta, and some recent buffs to make her self cast ult heal her I feel that Lissandra will be a very popular pick this year and I'm probably a bit too low on her.
• Twisted Fate is always a favorite of some mid players like Westdoor and in a meta where Shen, Nocturne, Soraka, Gangplank, Ashe, and Twitch are all relevant another semi global ult with a ton of CC to punish melees is going to be a factor. Has some rough lane matchups but the risk is likely worth it.
• Ekko is another tri flex special. Very strong kit with excellent base stats that can build any number of ways to fit the scenario he's in. Strong champion with a lot of excellent players like Rookie showing mad chops on the mobile time twister and the ability to be sent top and as a premium jungle pick as well as a solid mid.
• Fizz had his base stats and AD bruiser build nerfed but his AP ratios slightly buffed to encourage AP and CDR Fizz to make a return. In a meta where people are relying on hard cc to lock down melee assassins Fizz can actually avoid quite a bit of it and buy time for his team to finish the job if he doesn't. He also matches up well with a few of the melee assassins. Certain players like Westdoor, Rookie, and recently Kuro always tend to favor Fizz and with some recent buffs I'm sure we'll see a bump in his played %.
• Gangplank is likely the most picked/banned champion this year because he is arguably the best top laner but can also be played mid. It'll be interesting to see which teams opt to spend time for their mid laner to learn him as either a take away or to make it a true flex. This will be an important factor for a lot of teams and could be a major weakness if they don't have a backup plan.
• Viktor is still very powerful don't get me wrong. I just don't think he's as well positioned as he previously was. In other words he'll still be played but with more gold needed to get to where he was before he won't be picked or banned in most games like he was most of this season.
• Tier 3 - Kassadin, Anivia, Cassiopeia, Karthus, Vladimir, Ziggs, Veigar
• Kassadin as well as the other members are tier 3 are all scaling champs that perform specific functions well at a cost. Kassadin can be a good top or mid laner against certain matchups that scales really well and can be a champ that can still dive in a meta where diving is drafted against. As someone that's as mobile as he is he also doesn't need to worry about being dived on himself. His lack of early wave clear could be an issue.
• Anivia benefits from almost every single ap item change they made. Archangels, Rod of Ages, Liandry's Torment, Will of the Ancients, and Deathcap are all excellent for her and were all buffed. She's also incredible against melee's where her wall, slows, and stun can punish botched dives. You also need to kill her twice. Anivia is a sleeper for this year. I think if players get good enough to get her through a relatively weak early lane she could be the surprise of the tournament. Even Froggen has said she's definitely going to be played. I'm more along the lines of she "should" be not that she necessarily will.
• Cassiopeia CAN be good against dives but can also be awful. She CAN be good in certain matchups vs melees or she can be the worst. With all the ap item changes helping her as well I'll be interested to see if people are willing to pick her. The power level is there but it'll depend on how fast the metagame is this year and I'm predicting that it'll be much faster than we've seen all season which might leave her too slow to hang with the big guns.
• Karthus is another one that is excellent against dives, benefits from new ap item buffs, and is better against some assassins than people think while being absolutely horrific against others. IF he can get a favorable matchup, which I doubt because he's bad against most of the top two tiers in lane, then he could be a solid punish champ.Also decent against globals because he can run teleport in a pinch and his ultimate can help counter dives as well as Nocturne, TF, and Shen ultimates amongst others.
• Vladimir is in much the same spot as Cassiopeia in that he can punish dives well, benefits from the ap item changes, and takes time to scale so that's the question. Is there a matchup people favor Vlad against? He's also a possible top lane choice so I'll keep him in Tier 3 because I feel we'll see him in one role or the other.
• Ziggs is risky because of his bad matchups in lane but he wave clears well, does a ton of damage and ulting, placing your mine field, and satchel charging an opposing dive can be a devastating punish with the potential to also become a siege tool if you're ahead. Also decent against globals because he can at the very least get there with his ultimate to help teammates out.
• Veigar has picked up a ton of traction in solo queue and with pros like Froggen spamming him. With excellent zone control, and ridiculous scaling with some CDR (to lower his Q stacking ap cooldown) he can pose quite the threat. Still not sure he can manage lane against the popular picks but if people can hide him or get him through lane phase you'll see him. I have a feeling somebody will bust him out just because he's popular even if it isn't optimal.
• Tier 4 - Galio, Riven, Irelia, Kayle, Jarvan, Heimerdinger, Karma, Varus/AP Kog, Cho
  
  **** Doubt we'll see these but they're who I'd bet on to make a one-of appearance. ****
• Galio is just a hard counter to what I believe to be a dive heavy meta. I'm just not sure his power level is high enough to be played but I'm sure we'll see it tried in mid or top at some point.
• Riven is on here almost entirely because Faker will choose to style on somebody but there is the off chance that she gets played by some other insanely mechanically skilled mid laners like GodV or Pawn or Rookie because she actually does match up well against the likes of Yasuo, Diana, Kassadin, and others.
• Irelia is on here as another one of those off-meta counters to the meta with a lot of risk attached. She's great against all these melee assassins and could be a niche counter to some others like Azir as well.
• Kayle might be an option as a Yasuo counterpick in lane and the ability to ult whoever certain assassins target could prove to be very effective. Can also be flexed top and maybe even support (RIP devourer Kayle).
• Jarvan ultimate plus another punish could be an effective way to both dive and counter opposing dives. I'm sure some of his melee vs melee matchps are half decent but I'm not entirely sure which.
• Heimerdinger is still a bit too cheesy for pro play but he does obnoxious damage and is incredibly effective at punishing enemy dives.
• Karma has good poke and a good early spike as well as her team speed boost and shield to perhaps kite out hard engages.
• Varus/AP Kog I could be wrong about but with so much mobility and hard engage around I'm not sure poke champions are worth the risk. I'll bet somebody tries Varus tho because his ult can be used as a disengage/punish.
• Chogath has a lot of good matchups but I feel he's just outclassed by other champions for a similar job. Off chance we'll see him.
• Not-so-honorable mention to Zed who I feel just doesn't do enough to warrant a pick right now when you could pick literally any of the other assassins. Maybe somebody will try it but I'd bet money that it won't win unless it's Faker or another premium mid styling on a bad team.

        My guess is that mid lane will vary the most drastically even though top lane has more general depth of champion pool. I think you're going to see most teams prioritize the safe blind picks like Ahri, Lulu, Orianna, and Diana (because of the flex option). Some teams will opt out of learning the newer stuff and stick to Azir and Viktor even through the nerfs as an homage to their raw power level. The real question is of red vs blue side and how it affects top vs mid. With so many hard counterpicks available in both top and mid lane it'll be interesting to see which teams prioritize countering top from red side vs countering mid from red side. This could also heighten the priority of flex counters like Lissandra and Kennen a lot because they can be picked blind and flexed depending on which matchup you see which can put the other team in a tough position. I'd guess most teams will be opting for comfort and power over the flex even if that's whats optimal or I would've had Lissandra in Tier 1 both top and mid.

AD Carry:

      AD Carry is at it's all time weakest point in recent patches and is still there. This means a few things. A diminished impact for premium ADC players on most champions is the first one. But it also means that ADC's are going to get pretty much everything they could want with no bans really being thrown their way.

• Tier 1 - Tristana, Corki, Vayne
• Tristana two escapes in a melee and dive heavy meta with her ultimate and her Rocket Jump. She also sieges towers incredibly effectively and has a decent matchup against the other top tier ADCs. Her late game is excellent with long range, safety, and the ability to get resets in fights. She's also pretty good at fast pushing and in lane swap. I think she was underplayed during the playoffs world wide and you'll be seeing a lot of her as a blind pick ADC at Worlds.
• Corki while there wasn't the annual Trinity Force buff this year Corki will still be relevant. His excellent lane swap, early power spike, and magic damage contribution in a meta with Yasuo around as well as his strong matchups against almost everybody in lane will make him a primary blind pick for teams since ADC has a diminished heavy carry role. 
• Vayne is the one carry that can still hard carry in the hands of a master player. She's excellent against the juggernauts because she can actually duel them and win. The top supports like Alistar and Braum are great pairings for her. She still has a weak lane but for teams looking for early spikes Vayne has the best one item spike for ADC's besides Corki and maybe Twitch.
• Tier 1.5 - Twitch
• Twitch, much like Nidalee, has her own tier because there are just certain players that have him in their pool and others that don't. Certain teams will play him and certain teams won't. He's certainly powerful. With a buff to shorten his time to stealth as a nice little push and more squishy targets than previous metas as well as a few great Twitch players like Imp at this tournament I'm sure we'll be seeing him. Assassins are good everyhwere else, why not have the ADC assassin right?
• Tier 2 - Ezreal, Ashe, Jinx
• Ezreal just got a .5 AD ratio added to his Arcane Shift which seems pushed to me by Riot. Completely independent of this buff is the fact that mobile, assassin champions like Diana, Yasuo, Fizz, Ekko, and Ahri are powerful picks right now and Ezreal, especially blue build, is excellent against ALL of them right now. With teams blind picking ADC a lot this tournament, him being a good general fit against the meta, and a seemingly pushed buff I think you'll actually see a lot of Ezreal this year.
• Ashe has been a priority pick in the current meta with ADC's being pushed towards utility her ultimate, slows, and Hawkshot provide a lot of utility and engage potential from a role that can't typically provide it. She also benefits A LOT from Zeke's Herald which amps critical strike chance, or in her case, ALL of her damage due to her passive. I'd have her higher but with so many mobile ADC killing machines around I'll conservatively place her here. 
• Jinx has good matchups in lane against the likes of Vayne and Tristana and has a lot more support options that are viable to lane with her. She's sort of in the same spot as Ashe in that the meta doesn't favor her but her raw damage output and potential to snowball a fight off her resets makes her a choice for Tier 2 on power level a lone.
• Tier 3 - Kogmaw, Sivir, Lucian, Kalista, Graves
• Kogmaw will be played as a counter or as the primary piece in juggermaw or protect the carry comps which will be seen at this tournament at some point with Lulu being such a safe option but I doubt we'll see him outside of those compositions. 
• Sivir has a rough time in lane against a lot of the popular picks right now but when a team just needs her ultimate and wave clear she can still be a decent option even if she's not exactly optimal. I'm sure we'll see her here and there.
• Lucian pairs up well with Braum and Alistar, two of the top supports right now and is a versatile pick the is usually pretty good in short range, assassin heavy metagame. His well-rounded kit will see a handful of games I'm sure. 
• Kalista has received a number of nerfs and is not particularly well suited to deal with all of the assassins (although she's good against the juggernauts). her lane phase was also nerfed quite a bit but she still has a strong kit with the utility from her ultimate synergizing with almost every single good support right now. Being able to outsmite a jungler is still a powerful effect that I might just be overlooking in pro play but I doubt we'll see more than a handful of games on Kalista.
• Graves is always good against assassin and melee meta's but I'm not sure if he's good enough to overcome some bad lane matchups against the premium champs right now as well as his lack of overall benefit from lane swaps. I still think we'll see a few people try 
• 
  
• Tier 4 - Mordekaiser, Urgot, Caitlyn
  
  **** Doubt we'll see these but they're who I'd bet on to make a one-of appearance. ****
• Mordekaiser is maybe the biggest mystery of the tournament. With a complete rework his ceiling is pretty ridiculous with the ability to control a ghost of the dragon and basically take a free tower with every dragon buff. He's also a great punish vs all the melee and juggernauts running around. This comes down to a question of whether or not a team actually needs a ranged AD carry or not. It's a question I've been testing with my 5s team and a lot of teams have been experimenting with. He had his base stats nerfed pretty hard which might scare teams off of him but I think one of the weaker teams might give him a shot as a desperation play. He's incredibly powerful I'm just not sure he can be played at the highest level where you can just kite him out.
• Urgot tends to be pretty good in heavily melee meta games although he's typically not as good against assassins he's certainly not useless. Being able to ultimate a Diana or a Yasuo for example is a powerful effect that a team may use him as a counterpick.
• Caitlyn seems to make an appearance every year but with Uzi not attending worlds this year I'm not sure we'll see her.

     Since ADC will get to pick whatever they want for the most part I think we'll be seeing a whole lot of the top four champions and less of the bottom tiers outside of comfort picks for certain players. I think everyone just wants to know if Mordekaiser will actually be a thing and if he can find a way to become a threat that somehow determines the meta at the tournament.

Support:

      Support has a few interesting options available to make the second tier very diverse and interesting but the premium picks will be in the majority of games.

• Tier 1 - Alistar, Braum, Janna
• Alistar is so well rounded and perfect for pro play. He's safe, he sets up dives, he has sustain, he's tanky, he's an engage, he's even a peel. The perfect disruptor. He's not as perfect a niche pick as Braum or others are against certain champions but overall the bull is the king right now. Also has the added bonus of pairing well with Orianna and Yasuo, two highly contested picks.
• Braum is the best champ in the game at dealing with some champions but is also pretty damn good against the rest of the field. He and Alistar are both excellent blind picks with incredibly high versatility and next to no downside. The only reason these two won't be picked is in favor of something more specific for a given strategy.
• Janna is the opposite end of the spectrum in terms of what she seeks to accomplish but she's still the safe blind with very high floor just like Braum and Alistar
• Tier 1.5 - Soraka
• Soraka gets her own spot simply because she's ridiculously annoying and frustrating to play against if your comp doesn't have ways to deal with her. She doesn't bring any of the utility that the above bring but her specific niche is so unbelievably powerful that if left unchecked she can appear to be the best support in the game. Almost no bad lane partner and limited bad lane matchups are going to make her a game of chicken in the draft. Some teams will run her, others won't, others will be punished for not respecting her, and maybe she even becomes the premier pick after people realize this.
• Tier 2 - Morgana, Thresh, Nami, Kennen, Leona, Bard, Tahm Kench, Shen, Malphite
• Morgana happens to be pretty good at stopping the lane dominance of champs like Braum and Alistar and typically has an advantage with some ADCs against something like Janna. Black Shield as well as her ultimate are typically very powerful in assassin and dive heavy metagames as a punish so I'm sure we'll be seeing her as a pretty safe blind pick stop sign to the metagame.
• Thresh is incredibly versatile and can hold his own against everyone he's simply not optimal which is the only reason he's here and not in tier 1. With certain ADC's like Jinx and Kalista he's bumped up in power. Great support players mean there will be great Thresh played at worlds I'm just not sure it'll be an every game thing.
• Nami pairs excellently with Jinx, Tristana, Vayne, and Twitch and while she's vulnerable to being gimped by the popular assassin champs she provides a slow for her ADC to kite out threats and her ult is an excellent anti dive tool. I'm sure we'll see her.
• Kennen is a dangerous flex option and a perfect attack on a meta where bot lane bully ADC's arent popular and he can push people around as well as hard counter dives with his ultimate. Pairs excellently with Lucian, Kalista, and even Corki. 
• Leona is still super reliable as an engage and can tustle with Alistar, Braum, and Thresh pretty well. Pairs excellently with Corki, Ezreal, and Jinx which means we might see more of her than you'd think. Certain players like Yellowstar happen to favor her a lot as an added bump to her pick %.
• Bard is a champ we only got to see a limited amount of and he seems to thrive more as an attack against protect/double hyper carry comps as a way to stop their backline from damaging while yours gets into position. He's vulnerable to a lot of the assassins but I think certain supports will favor him as an anti dive champ and a way to stifle hard engages. Certainly a unique kit with a lot of potential in the right hands.
• Tahm Kench is absurdly powerful against dedicated assassins. He punishes melees really hard as well. and his lane phase is actually a lot better than people think. I'm putting Tahm as my sleeper hit of the tournament with the ability to be played support, top and jungle as an anti carry or as a multi use Kayle ult that happens to be tanky as hell. He's super strong I'm just not sure where he fits into pro play.
• Shen is a strong top laner that has also seen some play as a support. Being resourceless and excellent against melee divers and single damage type stacking teams make him a viable option that might only be played by a couple of players and often as a take away from the opposing top or as a flex for their own top.
• Malphite support has popped up a few times and its ability to be flexed to top and (maybe) jungle is an interesting proposition. He's in a pretty good spot as both a peel and a hard engage in the current meta I'm just not sure of his specific matchups and his lack of effectiveness before level 6 will be enough. Might be seen as a take away from enemies threatening a Yasuo comp or as a way for you to threaten your own if Alistar was taken off the board.
• Tier 3 - Nautilus, Annie, Blitzcrank, Karma
• Nautilus fell off in popularity for seemingly no reason. He's still a decent option but I just feel that others are better. He's much better moving forward than as a peel even if he's not particularly bad at that. I just think there are more optimal choices right now but you might see him.
• Annie always seems to pop up at Worlds. The flash + Tibbers engage is still one of the best in the game but she has a weak lane matchup against a lot of popular supports and ADCs as well as vulnerabilites to a lot of other popular champs in other lanes.
• Blitzcrank ... somebody will try it. It's actually not too bad with fewer tanks being played.
• Karma is a possible attack on dive champions and has a really strong lane phase to punish weaker ones like Tristana. Certain players like LemonNation really favor Karma. Also has fringe flex pick possibilities to top and mid and even jungle.
• Tier 4 - Galio, Velkoz, Zilean, Kayle
  
  **** Doubt we'll see these but they're who I'd bet on to make a one-of appearance. ****
• Galio is just a hard counter to what I believe to be a dive heavy meta. I'm just not sure his power level is high enough to be played but I'm sure we'll see it tried in mid or top at some point.
• Velkoz does a stupid amount of damage. Small chance one of the weaker teams might try to cheese with him.
• Zilean should be really good in theory. His ult is powerful, it's easier to hit his double stun when everyone is diving forward. I'm just not entirely sure of his laning. He also has some great synergies with Olaf, Diana, and Darius.
• Kayle might be an option as a Darius, Leblanc, or other as a niche counterpick.

        While support has a lot of counter options available I think you'll mostly just be seeing the top 4-6 with a heavy emphasis on Alistar and Braum. If I had to pick a sleeper here it'd be Zilean but I think Tahm Kench has some very real power and if people catch on you'll see a ton of him.

Conclusions:
       This patch 100% helps the Chinese and LMS teams as well as Europe. With so many juggernauts, assassins, and niche counterpicks in both solo lanes available and these regions showing no fear to play the draft aggressively I think they benefit the most from the meta shift heading into worlds. Teams like AHQ, Flash Wolves, Invictus gain significant boosts in win potential and teams like Origen and Fnatic also receive a bump. I'll mention that I think this actually helps out Pain Gaming, SK Telecom, and KT Rolster as well with a power shift towards the mid lane and these teams having particularly strong players at that position. This patch hurts KOO Tigers, TSM, H2K, and possibly C9 depending on how they choose to prioritize countering vs picking comfort comps. The higher dependency on the combination of mid, top, and jungle as a combined unit makes these teams a bit more susceptable due to relative weakness at those spots compared to the field.

       This year should be a lot more interesting in drafts than Season 4 where Alistar and Zilean were true 100% must pick or bans. I think Gangplank and Fiora are the closest things we have to t at this year but they both have more counterplay than the afformentioned. I think the most interesting thing will be whether or not side dependent flex picks like Kennen and Lissandra become the meta or if teams will just play power and comfort over versatility.

     Thanks for reading and feel free to add me in game or chime in here. I'll be posting my predictions for group stages in the next couple of days now that I've made my read on the meta.

EDIT 1:
 Syndra in Tier 4 Can have some good matchups against other zone control mages and a few of the mid laners have had great success with her in the past but I doubt we'll be seeing her.

Veigar Tier 3 Mid and Support: Recent buffs to assists granting bonus ap and strength against heavy melee teams put him in a decent spot.

Zilean top of Tier 3 supports: Another anti metagame fit. Took people awhile to figure it out but he's really powerful when everyone is dog piling in. Also great for speed buffing champions like Olaf, Jax, Volibear, Diana, Yasuo, etc.