Wednesday, January 21, 2015

NA LCS 2015 Spring Predictions



                With LCS starting this weekend it's time for my predictions for the split for both NA and EU. I didn't follow the challenger scene nearly as much as I did for previous splits but I'll still give you my thoughts for this season. These predictions are made in the style of power rankings. I'm not going to predict records like I did for LoL Champions Korea but this is what I expect to be your END OF SEASON rankings.

#10 - Team 8

Starting Roster: CaliTrlolz, Porpoise, Slooshi, Maplestreet, Dodo8

                There's a chance that I'm not giving enough credit to roster continuity here seeing as Team 8 have been together in the challenger scene for quite some time now but that fact is that the level of skills here is just not up to par with the rest of the LCS. The only player really worthy of the higher level is top laner CaliTrlolz who is going to thrive in the current meta game where the top lane is vibrant and full of potential champion selections. They might have been good enough to get into LCS but they're not ready to compete yet.

#9 Gravity (former Curse Academy)

Starting Roster: Hauntzer, Saintvicious, Keane, Cop, BunnyFuFu

                Once again, continuity can be very valuable but there is a reason Curse Academy was a challenger team for well over a year. I think they're the superior of the two mainstays from the challenger scene in NA. Keane can be an absolute beast and while old man Saintvicious might not be what he used to be, he is the emotional leader this team needs to cause some upsets. Gravity and Team 8 will likely both end up back in challenger at seasons end.

#8 Dignitas

Starting Roster: Gamsu, Crumbzz, Shiphtur, CoreJJ, KiwiKid

                I can respect the loyalty that Dignitas has to its players but do they honestly expect people to believe that there wasn't a better option than Kiwikid? Especially with QTpie leaving it would've been a great time to just bring in a new bot lane all together. Anyway, I digress. The problem I see with this team is that they didn't fix any of their problems during the off season and downgraded at two positions. CoreJJ may end up better than QTpie but he's got to prove it to me first. He also has the language barrier/moving to NA issues to deal with. It's possible that he has stronger game sense and could be more coachable though so perhaps that was part of their considerations. Gamsu I've heard good things about from higher level players but he's not Zion. To me the bigger issue is that star player Shiphtur does not play well when behind and I just can't see this team having many early and mid game leads. Unless their new coaching staff figures out something that nobody else does this could be the end of Dignitas as we know it.

#7 Impulse (former LMQ)

Starting Roster: Impact, Rush, XaioWeiXaio, Apollo, Adrian

                If the language barrier can be overcome then this roster has the potential to finish significantly higher than this ranking but I'm speculating that that will not be the case. As great a coach as Fly can be they just don't have the time together as a team before the split starts to make a massive impact (heh!) in this split. We all know XaioWeiXaio is a beast but this just seems likea cobbled together bunch. Apollo and Adrian from NA solo queue, Impact after being cut from SK Telecom, and Rush who I know next to nothing about. This ranking is almost entirely respect for XWX to carry and for some younger, fresh talent and good coaching to come on stronger towards the end of the season even if they start rough.

#6 Team Coast

Starting Roster: Cris, Impaler, Jesiz, Mash (dontmashme), Sheep

                A lot of veterans here and while not all of them have played at the highest levels, they've all been in the scene for quite some time. It will be interesting to see how Jesiz makes the transition to NA and a new team but I really liked his performance on SK last year and his ability to play safely will allow Impaler and Cris to play aggressively which is what they are best at. Experience is the primary advantage this team will have as long as they have some sort of synergy.

#5 Winterfox (former Evil Geniuses)

Starting Roster: Avalon, Helios, Pobelter, Altec, Imagine

                Altec was by far the most underrated player in both NA and EU LCS last year posting absolutely unbelievable numbers on a losing team that was going through roster changes. He was the best in the league in average KDA in wins, least percentage of team's deaths, least deaths per minute, 2nd in percentage of team's kills, 3rd in kills per game, 2nd in minion kills per minute, and 4th in overall KDA last split. He's an animal that's just waiting to be unleashed on the rest of the league if a good roster can be assembled around him. But it's not just Altec I'm hyped about. Pobelter's journey to the upper echelon of Korean solo queue during the offseason was well documented and full of highlights against the best Korean professionals. At one point he was rank 30 with a 71% winrate. While solo queue rating doesn't always translate to great pro play, it is certainly a representation of how the individual player is doing currently. I'm not sure any of the other NA mid laners outside of Bjergsen and maybe XWX could do something like this and it's enough to earn a lot of my respect. I don't know a lot about imports Avalon and Imagine but I can say that the language barrier won't be as big an issue for this team with Helios there to smooth out the transition. Speaking of Helios, his experience, game knowledge, and aggressive play this past year could prove beneficial for emerging young stars Altec and Pobelter. Part of me wants to make a bolder prediction here and put Winterfox in the top 2 or 3 but I'm going to reserve that after seeing a season of play but they are, in my opinion, the highest upside team in NA LCS.

#4 Counter Logic Gaming

Starting Roster: ZionSpartan, Xmithie, Link, Doublelift, Aphromoo

                It carries some weight with me to see the seasoned, unexcitable veteran Doublelift completely hyped for this season. I'm not sure why he's so amped. Maybe it's the addition of Scarra to the coaching staff or a carry oriented top laner in Zion (top 2 top laners in NA?) to pull attention away from him but something is going on here. The big questions with CLG are whether or not Xmithie can re-acclimate himself to the pro game and whether Link can develope any sort of consistency at all. Maybe a change of pace in the jungle could fix both of these problems, especially with the changes to the game as a whole, new faces will benefit greatly by coming into the scene now and not later. A combination of playmakers in Doublelift and ZionSpartan and veteran presence will leave CLG in a familiar place somewhere in the upper half of the NA LCS.

#3 Team Liquid (former Curse Gaming)

Starting Roster: Quas, IWillDominate, Fenix, Piglet, Xpecial

                There' s a lot of hype surrounding this team. Team Liquids' first foray into League of Legends after shunning it for so long, the acquisition of globally popular and former world champion Piglet, the retirement of Voyboy, etc. It's really easy to overrate a team like this but I also think that people are either in one camp or the other. The believers and the non-believers. I for one am closer to believing than not but I'm going to temper my expectations a bit. If we break this team down the biggest weakness is IWillDominate who has been a veteran player for a number of years and while rarely exciting, has been effective for most of his time as a professional player. The next biggest weakness, at least in my opinion, is the potential psychological problems Piglet might have in getting used to the United States. It's been well reported that he went through a sort of depression, has been to Korea a number of times, and has voiced his feelings on stream. I for one think that he'll be a lot more comfortable once the LCS season starts and he starts whooping on the majority of the ADCs in NA. Is Piglet the best ADC in NA? No. Just because he's Korean and a former world champ doesn't mean that. He was cut because he performed poorly for almost an entire year on SK Telecom (also roster rule...) and there are a number of ADCs in NA that I feel are on a similar level such as Doublelift, Altec, and Sneaky. In my opinion, the main reason Team Liquid will be successful is that they will no longer be limited by Voyboy's shallow champion pool and narrow playstyle. Quas has been an underrated commodity, the addition of Piglet is a massive upgrade over Cop, Xpecial is still the best support in NA. All of these things add up to a solid team for me. As long as Fenix and IWD don't absolutely suck then I just can't see this team finishing any lower than top 3. Upgrades all around, early roster changes, and solid individual players in four out of five positions give Team Liquid great odds to do well. They also have the upside to come out the gates on fire and surprise a lot of teams. I could see this team winning this split if Piglet and Fenix pan out but I'll keep them at #3 for now.

#2 Team Solo Mid

Starting Roster: Dyrus, Santorin, Bjergsen, WildTurtle, Lustboy

                Many of you know that I'm sort of a TSM hater so consider that when I make them my #2 for the Spring split. It's easy for a hater to forget that TSM got to worlds last year with a roster that underwent a late season roster change and with a jungler that could essentially play two champions (albeit well). My gut tells me that this will finally be the downtrend for Dyrus. I can't see him staying at that high of a level for much longer. It's nothing against him but time wears on you. The good thing, is that Bjergsen, Lustboy, and WildTurtle are all playing at an extremely high level and I feel that the addition of Santorin will benefit this team much more than losing Amazing hurt them. Amazing is the better player but only on Lee Sin and Elise. His narrow champion pool was what lost them matches in worlds and prevented them from pushing on to that next level internationally (also they had to face Samsung White...). With more versatility, and a fresh start in the form of the new jungle changers, I think the addition of Santorin will provide much more beneficial for TSM as an organization. This team was already towards the top, and they even defeated Cloud 9 in the Summer split. I think they made an overall upgrade and thus, deserve this #2 spot.

#1 Cloud 9

Starting Roster: Balls, Meteos, Hai, Sneaky, LemonNation


                Cloud 9 are simply the best team in the West. They've made no roster moves which gives them a level of competitive continuity unrivaled in the NA LCS. They team fight well, they play well from behind and when ahead. Strategically they're creative and efficient always finding interesting solutions to problems that are presented to them. They're well coached, organized, and humble. But what Cloud 9 does best is win. Sneaky has elevated his play from role player to playmaker in the past year and with the new jungle changes and robust top lane meta-game, Meteos and Balls are going to run wild on the rest of the LCS. Hai's champion pool is in a good spot at least right now and with the full offseason to get himself back on track and add some new tricks, I see him performing better than he did towards the end of last year. Cloud 9 always seem to know the most effective and efficient ways to play the game and adapt very well patch to patch. With the new changes and continuity from top to bottom as both a team and organization, I fully expect Cloud 9 to come out of the gate fast and not let their foot off the gas.

Prop Bets and Individual Awards:
League MVP - Meteos
Rookie of the Year - Keane
Biggest Disappointment - Impact (obviously will have unrealistic expectations on him)
Biggest Surprise - Altec (shouldn't be a surprise but will be)
Best in Role:
               - Top: Balls (or Quas)
               - Jungle: Meteos
               - Mid: Bjergsen (Pobelter and XWX are a close)
               - ADC: Sneaky (Doublelift and Altec close)
               - Support: Xpecial (Aphromoo, Lustboy, and Lemon also close)

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