Betting: August 13th (LPL)

LPL Summer 2019 - Week 11 Day 2

I think Rogue Warriors are pretty firmly a tier better than the true bottom dwellers in the LPL like Vici and OMG and while it looks kind of weird to feel confident about the 2-0 here I actually do think Rogue Warriors will sweep. They managed to take a game off WE in a must win scenario, whooped on JDG straight up, took a game off the new look Dominus, and defeated a somewhat surging LGD 2-1 in some of their most recent matches. Vici have won a game against a good team in back to back series now with new stud top laner Cube doing a lot of the heavy lifting but they've announced Chelzi will be starting tomorrow. Holder should have a field day. I did pretty well betting the bottom tier teams in every region over the past two years and this is one of those few spots that I think one of these teams is better than their record (RW) while the other has a record that accurately portrays their level (Vici).

Spread: Rogue Warriors -1.5 maps @ +114 (2 units)

I know it's Invictus, and I know they're starting Leyan at jungle again, and I know it's late summer LPL, and I know this looks like the exact spot where IG "must win" and they still slack off, and I know LGD have been looking better recently.... but I'm taking the IG -1.5 here. IG actually looked pretty good outside of that weird breakdown in game three against RNG this weekend and that was also with Leyan playing. They even managed to roll over RNG in one of the games and remain competitive without losing their aggressive, skirmish heavy stylings. IG actually looked closer to themselves with a non-top lane sub for the first time in maybe ever. I also think people are bit too overhyped on LGD. Just because they've improved doesn't mean this is a good team. IG also need this win to secure their playoff spot so I fully expect them to be motivated and driven to win this (... I know I've been burned on this). LGD are ripe for a back to reality moment to me. Garvey and Bademan are super risky players that haven't been punished nearly as much as I think they could be and IG are just the type of team to do that.

Spread: Invictus -1.5 maps @ -200 (3 units)

O/U: Map 1 UNDER 31:00 @ -118 (1 unit)


O/U: Map 2 UNDER 31:00 @ -118 (1 unit)

---------------

Parlays:

Parlay (2):  Invictus -1.5 + Rogue Warriors ML @ +107 (2 units)

Parlay (2): Invictus -1.5 + Rogue Warriors -1.5 @ +221 (1.5 units)

Betting: August 9th (LCK, LPL, LEC)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 9 Day 2

The majority of my LCK bets the rest of they way, with a few exceptions, will be value based since I believe the top seven teams are all capable of taking series off of one another to varying degrees of likelihood. Sandbox and Afreeca are in a similar tier in that they're excellent at their specialties but have very obvious, very exploitable weaknesses. The catch is that both are good enough and have good enough players to overcome those adversities. I think Sandbox and Afreeca are essentially the same roster construction with different styles. Both have a liability at support for varying reasons and both have a ridiculous top side. Afreeca have looked slightly better in recent matches and I prefer their uptempo style but this is primarily just based on value. I have these teams rated evenly with a tiebreaker to Afreeca due to stylistic preferences on my end. I'm going to take Afreeca here as well on Sunday against Gen.G before that line gets out of whack.

Moneyline: Afreeca +112 (2 units)

Prop: Sandbox to win at least 1 map? NO @ +268 (0.5 units)

When we went over this series on the podcast last night the line was at Griffin -213 and it's actually kind of ridiculous to me that Griffin have moved even more in our favor. You all know my history with Gen.G so feel free to fade me but I'm going 7.5 units on Griffin here. This is a world class team in a pseudo must-win situation to earn a playoff spot. I could see being skeptical on this because Griffin have historically "choked" in big spots while Gen.G have a knack for showing up in clutch moments but I watch the recent performances between these two and I can't help but think Griffin just smash Gen.G back down to earth regardless of who starts in the top lane. Gen.G had a good read on the metagame and were playing far beyond their expected level after Rift Rivals but as we discussed on the podcast they sort of caught a wave of teams on their downswing. The LCK seems to have a pattern of good teams slumping for 2-4 series at a time and Gen.G rode a half dozen matchups with that happening. I don't want to take credit away from them. They look like an improved team but I also think the first time these teams met was Griffin's first series back since Rift Rivals and that they were a bit shellshocked by that experience as well as the game one Volibear support and Lux mid flex. Gen.G are kind of running out of tricks and at the very least people aren't going to be surprised anymore. I think Gen.G are the worst of the seven top Korean teams. They had their run and now it's over. Griffin need this win badly to secure a playoff spot especially with Kingzone taking care of business today against Jin Air. They're going to have to work for it.

This is my pick of the weekend. Griffin opened at -213 and are down to -189. They're the better team, and for my money are the second best team in Korea next to SKT. They had their issues a few weeks ago but this metagame is exactly the kind Griffin thrives in. Lane forever, choke you out of the game with superior individual players, and methodically close out. This is Griffin's wheelhouse. It's also Gen.G's but Griffin have better players at, in my opinion, every single position on the map except ADC where I think Viper and Ruler are comparable. It's heavy handed and obviously you know my history with Gen.G but Griffin feel like an absolute slam dunk here so we're hammering it.

Moneyline: Griffin -189 (7.5 units, BOOK MAX)

Spread: Griffin -1.5 maps @ +132 (2 units, bet placed Tuesday)

Spread: Griffin -1.5 maps @ +142 (1.25 units, add on wager)

-------------------

LPL Summer 2019 - Week 10 Day 4

EDG should stomp this but you know how I feel about late season LPL spread wagers and you know how I feel about LPL spread wagers on teams that aren't FunPlus or TOP. Just avoid them. I'll be including this -1.5 in parlays but not wagering straight up.

No wager (including EDG -1.5 in parlays)

I almost made this my pick of the week for the podcast but liked a few other selections more. That said I absolutely love this spot. Team WE are still in must-win mode as they look almost destined for a date with the 8th playoff spot in the LPL. The thing is they need to keep winning. Rogue Warriors have shown signs this season and we've been blown out pretty badly by "bad" LPL teams this week but Team WE are rolling right now. This meta fits their style perfectly, their chemistry is better than it's been all calendar year, and Mystic is playing some of his best League of Legends in the past few years (respect, he's been pretty good in that time). I'm not ruling out the possibility of Rogue Warriors stealing one here but I feel very confident that WE take care of business here.

Spread: Team WE -1.5 maps @ +110 (4 units)

--------------

LEC Summer 2019 - Week 8 Day 1

To me the only bettable games here are the heavy dogs like Rogue vs G2 if you think G2 is going to clown around (and lose... they can win while clowning around), Splyce/Origen, and Vitality/SK Gaming. SK Gaming have come out publically about their inner turmoil and while it's easy to just lay it on whoever is facing them I'll just remind people that sometimes players rally around that sort of thing.... but not at the end of the year when you've lost all hope. There is a lot of dejection here and Vitality are in must-win mode to secure playoffs while also being a superior team. I'm actually laying -213 on Vitality here. I usually cap my best of one selections at 3 units due to high variance but the spot is just so good for Vitality and the number isn't obscene so I'm going to hammer it. I haven't come to a decision yet on Splyce/Origen but I'm leaning Origen in a matchup with two simlarly style teams with similar overall capability.

Moneyline: Team Vitality -213 (5 units)

--------------

Parlays:

I'm going to have a boatload of exposure to Griffin and WE so if you feel squimish about either of those matchups I'd advise shaving on these or cutting them all together but since I'm limited it's my way of gaining more exposure. I'll write more about this but it's just one of those unfortunate things I have to do currently if I want more exposure to a series. It's risky. Tail at your own caution.

Parlay (2): Griffin ML + Team WE -1.5 @ +221 (2.5 units)

Parlay (2): Griffin ML + Team ML @ +111 (2.5 units) 

Parlay (3): Griffin ML + Team WE ML + Vitality ML @ +210 (2.5 units)

Parlay (3): Griffin ML + Team WE -1.5 + Vitality ML @ +372 (1 unit)

Betting: August 7th (LPL)

LPL Summer 2019 - Week 10 Day 3

LPL Playoff Picture after 8/6 games:

(from Leaguepedia)

They say a team with nothing to lose is soemthing to be afraid of and sometimes it is but most of the time that's not the case. Vici are done. They've actually been done for awhile. They're trying out new players and lineups and none of them have looked remotely good. This team has 6 game wins this season. After a rough loss to Victory Five this week LNG now find themselves under threat of losing their playoff spot. This is a must win game for them. I know LNG aren't a great team and I know they've regressed to what we thought they were as the season has gone on but they've also still been a better team than I thought. Before Victory Five they faced a nightmare schedule of FunPlus, RNG, and TOP. This team isn't great but they're good and they're in must win mode against a team that's been down and out and doesn't exactly take on the role of spoiler proudly like some other teams. LNG should stomp this series and I think we're getting good value on it because people tend to overreact to losing streaks. LNG have been facing good teams. Vici is just what the doctor ordered.

Must win to hold a playoff spot, bad Vici team with nothing to play for, rough recent schedule for LNG, great value on the line. This is a slam dunk. I think a lot of people might get too cute with this one and try to mise a Vici game win but I actually think LNG are being undervalued here based on recent performance.

Spread: LNG -1.5 maps @ -133 (6 units)

JDG are somehow still in the playoff picture. The way I see it they're going to have to win all three of their remaining series against LGD, OMG, and RNG in order to get in and that's only if some other teams like LNG, WE, and EDG really drop the ball. LGD are a complete circus right now. Constantly changing lineups and even player positions as they try to figure things out. Yuuki isn't having a great season compared to his normal performance. Kramer has been excellent but a single ADC can't do it all (unless you're Teddy on Jin Air). BadeMan has been a detriment in my opinion and while Garvey has shown flashes he hasn't really done a lot with the leads he does accrue. LGD are bad and also have nothing to play for. 

I know that JDG are kind of like Gen.G and do the thing that makes the least possible sense at any given time but I can't help but think just their player quality and need to win this series can drag them to a 2-0 against a poor LGD squad. That said, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them accomplish the win as dramatically as possible and punt a game or have a few longer ones. I'm putting less on this but JDG should pull this one out.

Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ -122 (3 units)

---------------------------

Parlays:

Parlay (2): LNG ML + JDG ML @ -185 (5 units)

Parlay (2): LNG -1.5 + JDG -1.5 @ +219 (1 unit)

Longer, multi-day parlays

Parlay (5): LNG ML + JDG ML + Kingzone ML (vs Jin Air) + Team WE (vs RW) ML + EDG (vs Vici) ML @ +150 (5 units)

Parlay (5): LNG -1.5 + JDG -1.5 + Kingzone -1.5 + WE -1.5 + EDG -1.5 @ +1211 (0.5 units)

I feel pretty strongly about all five of these sweeps and while I may not bet each individual one I'm confident enough that I'll be parlaying them multiple ways over the next few days while the odds are still good and people aren't doing the same.

Betting: August 4th (LCK, LPL, NA LCS)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 8 Day 4

I was back and forth on the podcast for my pick of the week and this was the other option. DAMWON aren't as consistent as a traditional top Korean team but this is also a team that really drives home leads and is willing to take more risks than almost any other Korean team. This is more of a bet against the bottom three LCK teams than it is a bet for DAMWON as they've been less consistent about 2-0ing than some top teams. I think we're just clearly seeing a large gap and I think DAMWON aren't just in the top seven but one of the best teams in the LCK. 

DAMWON should smash this series. They're also currently half a game ahead of both Gen.G (lol) and SK Telecom in the race for first place and a clean win here could put them up to 11-4 (first) and tied in game differential with SKT at +11. DAMWON are going to be highly motivated to take care of business here against a bad Hanwha team and I think they will.

Spread: DAMWON -1.5 @ -175 (8 units)

O/U: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -114 (2 units)

O/U: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -114 (2 units)

This line has moved a lot since opening at Sandbox -119. I think people are starting to see that while there is a clear distinction between the top seven and bottom three LCK teams, that there is also a distinction between the top four and middle three. Sandbox, Gen.G, and Afreeca are all good teams with some obvious weaknesses that can be exploited. They're also good enough to overcome those weaknesses but the top four are more consistant, more versatile, and have fewer weaknesses. I expect Kingzone to win this match but it's important to understand that I'm betting this more on value than I am on confidence. Sandbox are a challenging individual matchup for Kingzone, particularly in the solo lanes but Kingzone also hold such a massive advantage in the bottom lane that it's tough to ignore that. 

Kingzone is a better team, we're getting good value, we're attacking that. I wouldn't be surprised to see Sandbox win this, again, the top seven teams in Korea are all capable of taking a series off of each other but for how much more consistent and versatile Kingzone are I'm willing to fire aggressively on this.

Moneyline: Kingzone -127 (5 units)

Spread: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ +196 (2 units)

----------------

LPL Summer 2019 - Week 9 Day 6

We talked a lot about Invictus' three game escapades on the podcast this week. They actually have NOT won a series in two games this season. Not one. Good teams, bad teams, you name it. Invictus just love playing League of Legends apparently! I do think this could be a spot for it but I'm not sure that given the evidence that we're getting a great value in betting the IG sweep. It's not that we can attribute IG's inability to sweep to intent but they do tend to play around. One thing we said alot during Spring split was that this team did smash good teams and punt games to bad teams. I think BiliBili are likely going to be one of the bottom playoff teams and that stylistically Invictus are an absolute nightmare for them to face but I can't bring myself to bet IG sweeps anymore I've just been burned too many times.

We are, however, going to lay a substantial stake on the moneyline because I'm very confident IG win this series. Invictus are actually not locked for playoffs yet. They're fairly comfortable as 7-4 match scores but I think they'll be motivated in this one because they'll want to avoid playing against the other top teams in the first round if possible and perhaps draw somebody like BiliBili or LNG or WE. I also think there is an element of late season form that will come into play. With all the trials and tribulations this lineup has gone through this Summer I have to think that they can establish some sort of rhythm heading into playoffs. IG are an extremely good team and have just had a weird season. Now that they've had the full lineup together for a few weeks I think they'll come into form a bit. I expect this to be an IG 2-0 but we're just going to take the moneyline to be safe.

Moneyline: Invictus -244 (8 units)

LGD are bad. I feel bad because they do have some good players but this constant shuffle trying to look into the future has really hurt this teams momentum. They just haven't been able to really play this season. WE on the other hand are hitting their stride and looking confident, collected, and quite frankly really good in the last few weeks. WE are also a few wins out from a playoff spot so I expect them to take this match seriously and grind whatever lineup LGD marches out to a pulp.

I made this my pick of the week on the podcast because I think we're getting obscene value considering the trajectory of these two teams currently. WE are looking like they're going to end up a playoff team, they look better than some of the other playoff potentials like BiliBili and LNG right now and LGD are a complete dumpster fire.

Spread: Team WE -1.5 maps @ +102 (4 units)

-------------------

LCS Summer 2019 - Week 9 Day 1

I'm tempted to take Clutch against Golden Guardians but the line has since moved to -110 for Clutch so I'll likely just pass. Last day situations are always tough when you have so many games locked already. It's going to be a weird day on Sunday wiht essentially only two games mattering. OpTic battling for their lives against Cloud 9 who are only playing for second. Golden Guardians and Clutch are the other.

FlyQuest and Echo Fox in the final game of the day looks like a fiesta waiting to happen. Two bottom of the table teams with nothing to play for playing in a match to close out the season (unless we get tiebreakers). It's got memes and jokes written all over it. I'm betting five units on the OVER 21.5 kills.

O/U: FlyQuest/EchoFox OVER 21.5 total kills @ -125 (5 units)

--------------------------------

Parlays:

Parlay (2): Kingzone ML + DAMWON -1.5 @ +181 (2.5 units)

Parlay (2): Kingzone -1.5 + DAMWON -1.5 @ +365 (1 unit)

Parlay (2): Invictus ML + WE ML @ -111 (3 units)

Parlay (3): DAMWON -1.5 + WE ML + IG ML @ +140 (2.5 units)

Parlay (3): DAMWON -1.5 + WE -1.5 + IG -1.5 @ +425 (1 unit)

Parlay (4): Kingzone ML + DAMWON ML + IG ML + WE ML @ +299 (3 units)

Parlay (4): Kingzone -1.5 + DAMWON -1.5 + Invictus -1.5 + WE -1.5 @ +1918 (0.5 units)

---------------------

Betting: August 3rd (LCK, LPL, LEC, NA LCS)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 8 Day 3

Earlier in the split I said that if Jin Air are going to take a series that it would be against Gen.G. I know it was awhile ago and that Gen.G have looked like a real team finally but this is the exact kind of situation that Gen.G has lost in the past. This team plays down to it's competition so badly and so frequently that I'm actually going to go ahead and put some money on the Green Wings here. Stylistically this is a weird matchup because Jin Air can jump out to leads but can't close games while Gen.G give up early leads but rarely lose if it goes to late. I'm going to put a lottery ticket on Jin Air here. I've only bet Jin Air one other time this season (against Hanwha). I've been fairly disciplined in not getting sucked into the value of Jin Air because they're a full tier lower than even Hanwha Life who are probably a full tier lower than teams like KT and Gen.G. 

Gen.G absolutely need this game to stay in the playoff hunt which is EXACTLY why it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them lose this. That's the kind of ass backwards team Gen.G is and if you don't believe me just look at the past few years from them. They punt in spots like this ALL THE TIME.

Call it a hunch, call hatred for Gen.G, call it whatever you want but I'm gonna take a flier on Jin Air tomorrow. Tail at your own caution but for lack of a better way to put it Gen.G losing here would just be so Gen.G.

Moneyline: Jin Air +631 (0.5 units)

Spread: Jin Air +1.5 maps @ +202 (0.5 units)

This is a fascinating matchup because Afreeca, against all odds and with huge draft liabilities are finding ways to play through it and make adjustments. I loved seeing the Gragas support from Senan and think it could be just the one more pick they might need. Afreeca are still a fairly linear team but they're exceptional at their strength and are finding new ways to work around their weaknesses that other teams have attempted to expose. This is a tenacious team.

This is a weird spot in the season because with the top seven teams so close together in the LCK you want to be value betting in spots like this (taking the Afreeca ML or +1.5) but if you sincerely think SKT are going to win this match, like I do then there isn't a lot of value. 

I'll probably include the SKT moneyline in parlays but I'm not going to be betting it straight up instead just a small wager on the -1.5. I think SKT are the better, more consistent team and while I think this could be a close match it doesn't always mean it goes to three games as we've discussed in the past.

Spread: SKT -1.5 maps @ +108 (1 unit)

------------------

LPL Summer 2019 - Week 9 Day 5

Ok Dominus have looked reinvigorated and OMG, unfortunately, look like their organizational failures might have turned this team temporarily back into a pumpkin but I'm going to take OMG here. This line is way WAY WAY overinflated due to recent performance. Curse and Icon are still straight up ballers that could run away with a game here. Even if you power rank Dominus as a borderline playoff team with this new roster (not saying they'll make playoffs just that if they started the season with this team they probably could have) this line would be too much. Just because they're improved doesn't mean they're great. This is the kind of line you see on a playoff team against a bottom of the table LPL team. I'm going to take the OMG +1.5 here for a couple units. I know they've looked bad but this line is absurd. We'll put a small wager on the moneyline too. It wouldn't shock me at all to see OMG win this and that's not a slight against Dominus it just happens.

Moneyline: OMG +218 (0.5 units)

Spread: OMG +1.5 maps @ -123 (2 units)

For awhile I thought TOP was a tier below the top teams in China but I'm not 100% sure of that anymore. TOP are really good. This is very similar to the SKT/Afreeca series except closer. The "correct" side here is probably taking the value in TOP but I think RNG probably win this so we're going to take the moneyline for enough to cover a small wager on the -1.5 which I think is still the most likely outcome even though I have a lot of respect for TOP. TOP don't really punch up well and haven't had a win against one of the elite LPL teams this year (they've only faced Invictus without Rookie and lost that 1-2).

(UPDATE: No wager. This line is now -286, a bit too far out of range for my liking. We're going to just put a single unit on the RNG -1.5 though)

Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ +103 (1 unit)

------------------

LEC Summer 2019 - Week 7 Day 2

(G2/Fnatic opened at G2 -227 / FNC +170)

I like Misfits for a unit and probably two if you can find plus odds anywhere. Two even teams that I'd give the tiebreak to the new look Misfits in. 

Moneyline: Misfits -109 (1 unit)

This opened at Vitality -227 and has closed since Excel's upset today AND their winning streak. Let's not forget Vitality just had an upset as well, albeit over a trolling G2. The Garen pick obviously mattered but Vitality looked like they could have won a more straight up game too, one of the reasons we bet them. Vitality had a rough start but are starting to look more like themselves again. This is a team people are going to want to avoid in playoffs because their ceiling can be just as high as anybody. I think it's a joke we're getting value this good on Vitality so we're best of one max on it. They also need this win to build toward securing a playoff spot. 

Moneyline: Vitality -189 (3 units)

-------------------------

NA LCS Summer 2019 - Week 9 Day 1

(from Leaguepedia)

Liquid, CLG, and C9 have all clinched playoff spots and are just battling for seeding now. 

There isn't really a clean way to break all the variables down for this and we talked about it a lot on the podcast just now but you more or less need to look at this schedule and determine who you think will be playing for what and create and if/then chart for how you wish to wager and do it during Saturday's games for Sunday's action. Create scenarios for yourself like "If CLG lose the first game and Cloud 9 are currently losing to Golden Guardians then I need to bet OpTic Sunday right now before I lose value." There's a lot of those kinds of situations. I have a few pre-weekend wagers I'm going to put in but I'll mostly be live betting these hence the limited action here.

Moneyline: OpTic +131 (1 unit)

Moneyline: Golden Guardians +180 (1 unit)

Moneyline: Clutch -106 (3 units)

These are two value bets based on the premise that we have teams in must win situations that aren't bad against teams that could be battling for top two seedings but have already clinched playoffs. The Clutch wager is not as much a value as it is a selection based on the fact that I think this is a matchup Huni can run away with individually which is going to create a lot of problems for 100 Thieves and FakeGod.

----------------------

Parlays:

First few are recreational on a hunch that it could be a weird day tomorrow. Tail at your own caution/entertainment value.

"A really long shot" Parlay (2):

Jin Air +1.5 + OMG +1.5 @ +447 (0.25 units)

"A really REALLY long shot" Parlay (2):

Jin Air ML + OMG ML @ +2225 (0.25 units)

"While we're talking long shots...." Parlay (3):

Jin Air +1.5 + OMG +1.5 + Echo Fox ML @ +3420 (0.125 units)

"While we're talking REALLY REALLY long shots...." Parlay (3):

Jin Air ML + OMG ML + Echo Fox ML @ +14,870 (0.05 units)

"Eastern Saturday Exacta" Parlay (4): 

SKT -1.5 + RNG -1.5 + Jin Air +1.5 + OMG +1.5 @ +2208 (0.25 units)

-----------------

The more serious parlays....

Parlay (2): SKT ML + RNG ML @ -116 (3 units)

"Sure Shots" Parlay (3): SKT ML + RNG ML + Vitality ML @ +185 (1.5 units)

Parlay (2): Clutch ML + Vitality ML @ +198 (2 units)

-----

Saturday/Sunday Parlays:

Parlay (4): SKT ML + RNG ML + Invictus ML + Team WE ML @ +265 (2.5 units)

Parlay (4): SKT ML + RNG ML + Invictus ML + Team WE -1.5 @ +466 (2 units)

Parlay (4): DAMWON -1.5 + Kingzone ML + SKT ML + RNG ML @ +418 (1 unit)

Betting: August 2nd (LCK, LPL, LEC)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 8 Day 2

I kept trying to find an angle on this game and that probably means there isn't one. Both of these teams are in a similar spot battling to avoid relegation but likely better than the challenger series teams and definitely better than Jin Air. Hanwha have looked like an improved team recently but if you asked me to look at these teams in a vaccuum I'd say KT SHOULD be the better squad. I'm leaning toward KT here but was hoping we'd get better odds for either. As is there's too much juice. I don't hate taking a 2-0 one way or the other, take your pick, but I'm just going to avoid this series. 

Originally I liked the over 33:00 a bit but when Hanwha have won games it's typically been pretty quick. I expect this to be a surprisingly competitive series though. If you can find closer to even money on the over 33:00 than the -125 we have to pay then I'd take it for a unit or two. For me this is just a pass. 

No wager

(Strong lean KT Rolster ML and OVER 33:00)

I said in a group chat I'm part of last night that I think the top teams in Korea are all more competitive than it may look. Really I think the top seven teams are all capable of taking games or even a series off of each other. Nobody outclasses anybody that much right now. And sure enough Afreeca deliver a stunner beating DAMWON 2-0. Both series ended up in 2-0's last night but both series' were more competitive than that scoreline would show you. The SKT/Kingzone one inparticular was extremely high level by both squads so don't overreact to the results without watching the film. 

From this point forward I'll likely be value betting the matchups between the top seven teams unless some bizarre playoff scenarios pop up. I do think the top four of SKT, Griffin, DAMWON, and Kingzone are slightly higher class teams than Afreeca, Gen.G, and Sandbox and have fewer weaknesses but it's not by as much as it looks. As such we're going to get a lot of sweet value for underdogs moving foward. 

I think Sandbox just reminded everyone why they were atop the leaderboard at one point in their match against DAMWON but I also think this team has weaknesses that a smart team like Griffin will expose. That's the difference to me between the top four teams and Sandbox, Gen.G, and Afreeca. The top teams have very few weaknesses and plenty of strengths while these three have very obvious weaknesses. The thing is these three middle squads still have exceptional strengths. I think in the case of Sandbox inparticular in this specific matchup their strengths are their top half (solos and jungler). Until their match against DAMWON it was looking like the Sandbox solo lanes were becoming a bit figured out but they seemingly showed up to prove everyone wrong. I think Griffin's solo lanes are just as good and pose a similar problem.

I said I'm going to be value betting Korea from here on out but this is going to be an exception. I think Griffin are enough better and absolutely need this series to make playoffs. Sandbox could make things extremely difficult on Griffin with a win here so it's not that they aren't motivated also but I think Griffin are a more complete, more versatile team and are actually being undervalued right now by the general public who seem to think this team is "choking" again. 

It's a tad aggressive and I'd suggest maybe cutting this wager in half but I'm planting my flag on Griffin here. Value models probably tell you Sandbox is the pick here (after all, they're second place underdogs against the sixth place team...) but I think Griffin are half a tier stronger and I'm willing to aggressively move on that. I think this is the last time we see Griffin sub -200 against a non-tier one team the rest of the year and I'm going to try to take advantage. I'm going to have a lot of exposure to this through parlays as well so I'll stay away from the -1.5 in lieu of that.

Moneyline: Griffin -179 (5 units)

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LPL Summer 2019 - Week 9 Day 4

Suning have been quietly racking up wins and this team that we found so terribly disappointing in Spring appear to be silently taking care of business as they solidify themselves as a playoff team in the LPL. Part of maintaining that is beating up on weaker teams like Victory Five. We've talked a lot about Victory Five and their foray into the swapping solo lanes so I won't bog down the conversation with that again but this team has struggled against elite solo lane talent. Are Maple/Angel/Biubiu elite solo lane talent? Debatable. I think they're solid enough and versatile enough to outclass V5's shenanigans but I wouldn't quite call them the choice of the LPL. Suning should win this series but they haven't really been handling weaker teams in the way you'd expect a playoff LPL team to. We're going to place a light wager on the Suning -1.5 here because I think we're getting a good value (should probably be ballpark -130 or so) but it wouldn't surprise me to see V5 take a game. 

Spread: Suning -1.5 maps @ -114 (1 unit)

Similarly to Suning against V5 we're doing a small wager on the -1.5 because I think it's a more likely outcome than these odds provide but I'm not excactly hyper confident in that result. Rogue Warriors are in a constant state of SHOULD be better but just haven't been delivering. This is also a classic JDG losing to a bad team type of situation but I think because of the hole they've dug they absolutely need this win for a playoff spot. I also think Rogue Warriors don't exactly have the macro to punish some of the more sloppy decisions JDG frequently make.

Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ -115 (1 unit)

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LEC Summer 2019 - Week 7 Day 1

I only have two selections in Europe for tomorrow one that I'm extremely confident about and another that's just a value pick. I bet against Rogue last week citing overhype inflating the line value (also I like Vitality). The overinflation has gone the complete other direction. It seems markets just can't decide on Rogue and are constantly over or underrating them. I think Rogue are a better team than SK Gaming and that these lines should be swapped. Rogue should be favored in this match. SK Gaming look like the second worst team in the league right now. We're best of one max three units on Rogue as underdogs attempting to attack a soft line here.

Moneyline: Rogue +104 (3 units)

This Vitality bet is simultaneously a value bet and one that I think isn't too unlikely to be an upset. I'm going to take just about anyone reasonable at +358 in a best of one but I particularly like feast of famine squads, like Vitality, against higher variance good teams like G2. This could be a let down spot as G2 coast to playoffs, this is also a must win for Vitality. Add in the general variance these two teams typically play with and there's a recipe for a big upset to happen. 

Moneyline: Team Vitality +358 (1 unit)

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Parlays:

Parlay (2): Griffn ML + JDG ML @ +100 (2.5 units)

Parlay (2): Griffn ML + Suning ML @ -102 (2.5 units)

Parlay (3): Griffn ML + JDG ML + Suning ML @ +154 (2 units)

Parlay (2): Rogue ML + Vitality ML @ +834 (0.25 units)

Betting: August 1st (LCK)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 8 Day 1

We get two outstanding matches in the LCK tomorrow that are challenging to call. The simple reasoning for this bet is that I think this line is too far apart. I think SKT will win but I can't look at Kingzone as a +230 against literally anybody on earth and think it's correct. Feel free to abstain from this one and just enjoy the game but I can't look at these numbers and say no.

Moneyline: Kingzone +230 (1 unit)

Spread: Kingzone +1.5 @ -128 (2 units)

This one feels like a trap. Afreeca are a good team and while they have glaring weaknesses they have such incredible solo lane talent that they can often bulldoze their way through those disadvantages in much the same way FunPlus does with their decisiveness. I'm still questioning Senan and think the draft liabilities this team has are going to be difficult to consistently overcome against the top teams. You could argue DAMWON is the top team in the LCK right now. Afreeca were able to take care of Kingzone but the solo laners on DAMWON are significantly better.

The approach to this match is that if you believe Afreeca's strong solo's have more of a cancelling effect on DAMWON's then the Afreeca +1.5 maps is the bet here and maybe even justifiably the moneyline but I wouldn't go that far. If you think DAMWON are simply too good of a team to not abuse the liabilities Afreeca have then it's DAMWON -1.5 maps. The moneylines are a bit out of range.

I've discussed that DAMWON are probably the best team in Korea but they aren't like the historical best teams in Korea because they're not quite as crisp and clean. They drop games in their overzealousness. I'm going to be light on the DAMWON -1.5 because I do think they can punish Afreeca's weaknesses well enough. I also think DAMWON are the other elite uptempo team and facing someone that does what they do but worse should be an advantage to them. I think DAMWON take this 2-0 but I'm only wagering a small amount on it because of the likelihood of Afreeca's solo lanes to steal a game here.

Spread: DAMWON -1.5 @ +103 (1 unit)

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Parlays:

This is another one of those "guarantee IF" style parlays. We're going to take the double favorite moneyline for 2.5 units to win just short of 2 units, but also the DAMWON + Kingzone ML to win just short of 4.5 units. We ned 0.75 if both favorites win and a little less than 1 unit if DAMWON and Kingzone win. Both of these hinge on DAMWON winning.

Parlay (2): SKT ML + DAMWON ML @ -125 (2.5 units)

Parlay (2): Kingzone ML + DAMWON ML @ +349 (1 unit)