Betting: July 20th and 21st (LCK, LPL, LEC, NA LCS)

I've had a very up and down week. My single best individual day on Sunday followed by one of my worst but hey sometimes that's the way the cookie crumbles. Can't be scared off, can't be overconfident.

I'll be away almost all day Saturday so I won't have time to writeo n Saturday so I'm just going to do the full weekend writeup in one post!

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LCK Summer 2019 - Week 6 Days 3 and 4

This is one of the marquee matchups in any region this weekend. Two of the best teams on the planet coming off of losses. I'm going to keep this short and sweet and advise you all not to tail blindly here. You should be on one side of this game or the other and there is plenty of justification for both.

Perhaps the primary justification for DAMWON is the "mismatch" between Nuguri and Sword. Sword has been a bit exposed for only playing the priority blind pick champions this season so it made Griffin's drafts a bit too predictable and in their two most recent series they were punished for it. The thing is we saw Sword playing a different role last season. What am I getting at? First, Sword is a more versatile player than I think people are giving him credit for. Second, he played that same role for the entirety of Spring split and didnt waver so we shouldn't rule out that he'll just continue to do so this split. What else does this mean? Well honestly did Griffin look bad by the end of the season in Spring? Outside of their playoff loss to SKT not at all. They were dominant.

I'm going to be on the Griffin side. Consider my flag planted.

I happen to think that this is STILL one of, if not the best team in the world and they were just adapting to a new patch and got punished for "safe" preparation instead of being proactive. I'll remind everyone that Griffin still have three of the best lanes (by metrics AND the eye test) on the planet. Like literally lanes in isolation against any lane anywhere in the world Griffin are probably winning. As a matter of fact do that thought experiment to yourself. Build your own super team. Ignore language barriers and build the three best lanes you possibly can. I bet Griffin are like 50/50 against that team maybe even winning. I mean absolutely no disrespect to DAMWON here at all. They also look like one of the best teams on the planet I just happen to think Griffin have fewer liabilities. 

This is a bit personal preference for me so, as I mentioned at the top, I'd advise not blind tailing here. The "value" is in DAMWON if you consider these two equal. This line should probably be something like -120 / +100 for Griffin (you could argue it should be that in favor of DAMWON). I'm betting Griffin getting no value and am basically wagering this as a gut feeling wager on Griffin. Tail if you like but I'd say just pick the side you like or don't bet this at all.

Moneyline: Griffin -161 (3 units)

This line opened at -227 / +167. Kingzone -1.5 @ +123.

If Gen.G could play the way they played game two against Sandbox every game then I'd be willing to change my tune on Gen.G.Gen.G look pretty good but they also haven't been punished at all in their recent matches. I don't know if that's a problem with the LCK or just this patch or a combination of the two or what but I haven't found Gen.G to be playing particularly great defense. They've been a bit more proactive in some games, like the game two I mentioned earlier but they've largely remained the same team with just overall better performances from individual players. Maybe that's enough. Maybe Gen.G is just diet Griffin now and they can just lane you to death but I'm not buying it.

Kingzone had an absolutely embarassing loss to Hanwha Life yesterday that blew a hole in mine and a few colleagues' bankrolls. They honestly looked like they were sleeping through this match but credit to Hanwha for probably their best performance this year. I actually thought earlier in the week that this could be a let down spot for Kingzone and that Gen.G could keep their LCK tour of beating teams that slack off cuz they're ahead in the standings (I'm exaggerating slightly but think about it...). Now that Kingzone had that wake up call against Hanwha AND Gen.G have been rolling of late I fully expect Kingzone to be game for this match.

I want to be careful not to just assume Kingzone are an elite team. I honestly expected them to finish this season making the playoffs but maybe at 4th or 5th after a blazing start but this team has continued to impress me (until yesterday). I don't want to forget just how good Kingzone have been. There is an argument for them as the best team in Korea. I might not agree with that but the point is they've earned enough respect to be considered.

I dodged two bullets with my embargo on Gen.G bets but I'm lifting it for this because I simply can't say no to this at this number. I actually think this is a value for Kingzone now. I was going to bet this last week at Kingzone -227... I might get blown out here but I'm willing to bet in a Gen.G game for this kind of value. Knowing them they'll prolly find a way to ruin me but I'm not going to abstain from this one it's just too juicy.

It's important for me to advise you all that I have an absolutely awful track record with Gen.G. For those that have followed me for awhile it's a bit of a meme at this point. Gen.G have caused more net losses for me than any other team BY FAR.

YOU'VE BEEN WARNED!

Moneyline: Kingzone -227 (5 units) (put in early last week)

Moneyline: Kingzone -164 (3 units) (add on)

Spread: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ +123 (2 units)(early last week)

Prop: Gen.G to win a map? NO @ +123 (0.5 units)(early)

Prop: Exact Kingzone 2-0 @ +134 (1.5 units)(add on)

Prop: Gen.G to win a map? NO @ +156 (0.5 units)(add on)

This looks really weird because I'm limited and these odds changed. At the current number I'd bet the total amount of these at that better, new number.

Kingzone ML 8 units

Kingzone to 2-0/-1.5/Gen.G to win a map NO combined total 4.5 units

Sometimes you catch a bad beat (like Kingzone against Hanwha) but other times there is some detail you missed and I think I was wrong about Afreeca this morning against KT Rolster because I was too blinded by how bad KT Rolster was and what I consider to be a good Afreeca team. There were a few angles to this.

First, I think Afreeca have been figured out a bit. It's not to say that they can't play through that but it's a factor that should at least put a chip in their armor. Senan is a liability on any support that isn't a tank and really he hasn't shown well on anything that isn't Nautilus or Galio. He's a specialist so that's going to happen. I assumed he'd get better over the year and develop his pool but that doesn't seem to be the case. The problem this is causing is that Afreeca are now in a rough spot drafting because with Yuumi and Lux still remaining the power pick supports, Afreeca are either forced to pick or ban them in a lot of situations or it limits what the rest of their draft can look like even if Senan "counters" with Naut or Galio. Alternatively other teams can also ban his picks and force them to ban Yuumi/Lux because they know he'll either be bad on it or not pick it meaning they can get it on the pick back from either side.

Second, the introduction of Mordekaiser is going to be another must pick/ban that Afreeca are going to have to consider because it stymies early pressure so much with his ability to stall from weakside and avoid dives. That's going to make Afreeca's uptempo, snowball style a lot tougher to pull off. For those that don't know, the new Mordekaiser is not only extremely hard for melee champions to play into but also extremely difficult to dive and punish without weird counterpicks. It's not a flawless champion but it's one that directly affects Afreeca's style and it's going to be yet another ban for them to have to consider on top of the above mentioned Yuumi/Lux situation with Senan.

TL:DR - New patch, new champion, and Senan being a liability (not a bad player just very linear) is going to make Afreeca's drafting AND their snowbally style really REALLY difficult moving forward. So I think we're going to need to knock them down a peg.

So I'm not betting this but I'm curious to see if this line goes down after Afreeca's absymal performance against KT this morning. If this gets into the -180 or better range I'll bet it but for now I'm going to just include this in a couple parlays. I know things are working against Afreeca and that Jin Air showed a little life against SKT this morning but honestly Jin Air have shown "a little life" against almost everyone this season and have nothing to show for it. I'm sorry Jin Air but I don't think you're going to take a series this season :-/ If they can't take a game with some of the leads they've had then I just don't think they understand the game at a high enough level to actually close one. I hope I'm wrong but I'll be betting against them until that happens. It's a shame too because their laners have been doing a decent job (besides TaNa who, on Mordekaiser, got solo killed by Khan around level 6 this morning which is something that should never happen). 


No wager (including the AF -1.5 in parlays)

Sandbox just had an embarassing loss to Gen.G not because losing to Gen.G is embarassing, quite the contrary in their current form, but in the manner they lost. Hanwha just had a surprise victory against Kingzone. This line hasn't moved yet but it almost definitely will when money starts coming in I just think people haven't looked ahead to Sunday yet. I love Sandbox to bounce back here. Hanwha just played their best series of the year and I'm not betting on them to repeat. Sandbox are going to back with a vengeance after how embarassed they were by Gen.G particularly in game two. They'll be surprisingly motivated for this game and I expect them to completely stomp HLE. I put this wager in earlier this week but I kind of love it even more now after the embarssment Sandbox experienced. We will get some value on this just wait for it but I'm going to be a heavy five units on the Sandbox sweep here. Sandbox aren't the #1 team in Korea but the'yre still an excellent team and Hanwha simply aren't. Don't be fooled by a couple weird series from these two squads.

WAIT FOR THE LINE TO MOVE IN OUR FAVOR BEFORE BETTING THIS I'm just putting this down now since I won't be here tomorrow.


Spread: Sandbox -1.5 @ -192 (5 units)

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LPL Summer 2019 - Week 7 Days 5 and 6

RW Holder has been impressive in the top lane and along with ZWuji have been leading RW to some competitive showings this season. I don't think Suning are that great a team. They're almost certainly the better one of these two but I love Rogue Warriors as heavy dogs against a mediocre team and think they're favored to take a game and perhaps this series and stun a still overrated Suning team.

This is primarily a value play but I think Rogue Warriors are a weaker team that punches up well and they have a couple players that run away with a game and hard carry in Holder and ZWuji. I like the dogs here.

Spread: Rogue Warriors +1.5 maps @ -156 (1 unit)

Moneyline: Rogue Warriors +185 (0.5 unit)

There are two feature matchups in the LPL this weekend between four of the top five teams. These are two of the best teams in the LPL but the rub here is that we haven't seen RNG since their last LPL match June 30th. They didn't go to Rift Rivals this year. The lineups have been announced and it's the full starters for both, as expected. It's really hard to gauge what we'll see here. On one hand RNG have seen some film from EDG on this patch and have had almost three full weeks to prepare for their second half push. On the other hand we have EDG who are looking in dominant form right now. 

My gut tells me the right side is RNG here. If you believe in "shaking off rust" vs "running hot" then take EDG because I actually think there is probably some value there. I think with both of these squads playing their best that its something like RNG -120 vs EDG +100 so just based on that you should take EDG but I can't help but think the off time is only going to help this veteran RNG squad. Combine that with the fact that they've already seen some of post RR EDG on film and can prepare specifically for this and it's pretty hard for me to feel confidently about EDG here. I'm going to take the RNG moneyline for a few units. This is another gut feeling call because I think the value is in EDG but it's extremely rare three weeks off in the middle of a season like this happens and it's a potentially distinct advantage for RNG. There is a chance this backfires and the "rust" aspect or running into a hot EDG team is just too much but I'm willing to bet on preparation especially with RNG against a good team and with experienced, intelligent veterans.

GUT FEELING BET TAIL AT YOUR OWN RISK

Moneyline: RNG -159 (4 units)

I bet this before the somewhat shocking news that Changhong is retiring. After three years primarily spent in the LDL he finally made it to the pro scene and had a really solid Spring split. He was struggling a lot this split with tanks mostly eliminated from the metagame but has decided to call it quits for now. Really alarming news because Dominus were already lacking a real carry on this team and if they had one is was Changhong. As a matter of fact they were almost living and dying by him. A true "tank carry" player. His weaker Summer performances (primarily because he's been patched out) are a big reason why this team only has a few game wins this season and went from a 60% win rate, 4th best record team to one that's battling Vici for the bottom of the table. 

In his place will be Melody from Dominus' LDL team. I know next to nothing about him so I won't sit here and pretend I do but I think this team needs a few things. Firstly a true leader or to band together and grow a pair so to speak and secondly a top laner that isn't incapable of playing the meta top laners. On one hand you could argue that this only helps Dominus but you could also say that Dominus, being a team that's more the sum of their parts than their individuals, is a team that relies heavily on team play and synergy rather than standout performances.

I'm going to leave these wagers as they are because I'm intrigued and almost think this can't hurt as bad as it seems for a team that's now tied for last. They desperately needed a change of pace or something to light a fire and maybe this is it. If it's not and this team looks like it's going to be a dumpster fire then so be it but I'm willing to give the new kid a chance even against the formidable Zoom. 

I WOULD NOT BET THIS GAME NOW but there is very little value in hedging so I'm just going to let it ride. If you want to join in I'd actually wait until more people here this news/see the lineup and likely hammer the JDG -1.5 in order to get some value. I'm going to leave my wagers as is and hope the new kid can surprise.

Spread: Dominus +1.5 maps @ -137 (2 units)

Moneyline: Dominus +213 (0.5 units)

The game of the week in any region. The two best teams in the LPL and two of the best teams in the world. They're also two tremendously entertaining teams to watch. This is another situation where I'm planting my flag but the truth is you could make an argument for either of these teams at these odds. If you think Invictus are still shaking the rust off from their time without being a full roster then FunPlus is the side. They look ridiculously impressive right now. I'm looking at this as Invictus' welcome back party. I also think FunPlus, while formidable, are a linear and "solvable" team and that Invictus have the individual players to do just that. I also think the rust doesn't really apply to a team of this caliber even with the style they play.

Even simpler when are we ever seeing Invictus at plus odds? Like really when's the last time? Consider my flag planted on the Invictus hill. I think FunPlus are very good and I hope to see them represent China at Worlds but Invictus is the best team in China and you know they had this match circled on their calendar.

Regardless of which side you choose or if you even bet this just enjoy this series it should be a great one between two elite teams. Get the popcorn ready!

Moneyline: Invictus +100 (3 units)

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LEC Summer 2019 - Week 5 Day 2

ROGUE is now -175 vs Misfits

Misfits is starting an entirely new lineup so if you believe that's a positive for them then there is an argument for taking Misfits here but I'm loving Rogue's form right now. This line is likely higher now with Rogues win against Fnatic today but I still love it!

Moneyline: Rogue -132 (1 unit)(early wager)

Vitality have looked bad enough executing that I'm willing to take Origen over them here laying -185. I love Vitality and that they always go down fighting but they're simply not good right now. It's a real bummer.

Moneyline: Origen -185 (2 units)

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NA LCS Summer 2019 - Week 7 Days 1 and 2

NEWS: Keep an eye on Twitter/Reddit to see if we hear anything about Impact starting or not. For those that don't know, Impact and TL Academy player (and former Karthus god and inpsiration for me personally as a Karthus main) Insanity were in car crash when taking an Uber. It doesn't appear that anybody was hurt as they were Tweeting about it but there was a picture with Impact in a neck brace posted. It was likely just cautionary from EMTs. I'm sure he'll be starting but just keep and eye out just in case.

I have a few selections I like in the NA LCS this week. I won't write on the ones I'm not betting but feel free to check out the podcast where we talked about each match!

I love what CLG has been doing this season. They started the season in midseason form with a new top laner which is really impressive. However, I've been saying it all season long, I'm not sure how much more room for growth this team has. In other words CLG have been playing closer to their ceiling since the start which was notable but now that we're halfway through the season we need to ask who this team really is. I think they're a middle of the table team. They're strong, consistent and will likely make the playoffs but can we definitively say they're better than the "bottom" teams? That answer has more layers to it because we have 100 Thieves and FlyQuest who are looking like they're better than the massive win/loss holes they've dug themselves into and are starting to come into the form we thought they'd have before the season started. FlyQuest look confident and collected. I don't think they're going to get hot enough to make playoffs but don't tell them that. I absolutely LOVE this spot for FlyQuest especially because CLG's best players Wiggily and Ruin are going to have a tricky time dealing with Viper. One of these teams is progressing, the other is stagnating. I think the break even point might happen this weekend. CLG are going to finish the season with a better record and pole position than FlyQuest but they might not finish the season the better team.

Moneyline: FlyQuest +141 (1.5 units)

This is a combination of my affirmation that OpTic, despite a rough past couple weeks, are a good team and that Echo Fox are an absolute dumpster fire right now. This is a bettable line and I'm going to just take it. Three units is my max for a best of one with a few exceptions. We're going to max out here. Take the free money.

Moneyline: OpTic -200 (3 units)

Licorice should be back for Cloud 9 and they should be able to handle a CLG team that looks firmly planted in the middle of the table as a good not great team. We're not getting a lot of value here at all as a matter of fact the value is probably on CLG based on the season so far but I'm loving Cloud 9 to get into form in the second half of the season and show that they're in a tier above the rest of the LCS besides Liquid.

Moneyline: Cloud 9 -196 (3 units)(put in Friday)

Again, I feel that OpTic are better than they've looked in the last couple matches and think that TSM have been overperforming a bit. I also think that Crown is one of the few mid laners that can handle Bjergsen. I rate TSM as a slightly better team than OpTic. I'm going to put a unit on OpTic here because I think we're getting some crazy value on OpTic. This line should be like -130 TSM at worst. I'll take a flier on OpTic.

Moneyline: OpTic +162 (1 unit)(early wager)

Two similar teams that had awful starts and have looked to finally get it together. I expect both of these teams to remain competitive even if they don't make playoffs if for no other reason than pride and potential future employment for some of them. I think FlyQuest are a better team and that FakeGod is going to have a really REALLY difficult time with Viper. This should probably be even money and we're not only getting value with FlyQuest but I happen to think they have the largest mismatch on the map weighing in their favor. 

Moneyline: FlyQuest +113 (3 units)(early wager)

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Parlays:

Parlay (2): Sandbox -1.5 + Afreeca -1.5 @ +105 (2.5 units)

"Long Shot #1" Parlay (5):
Kingzone ML + Griffin ML + Afreeca -1.5 + Sandbox -1.5 + Invictus ML @ +951 (0.5 units)

"Long Shot #2" Parlay (5):

RW +1.5 + RNG ML + Kingzone ML + Griffin ML + IG ML @ +1294 (0.25 units)



NA LCS Saturday #1 Parlay (3): OpTic ML + Liquid ML + Cloud 9 ML @ +163 (1 unit)

NA LCS Saturday #2 Parlay (4):
OpTic ML + Liquid ML + Cloud 9 ML + FlyQuest ML @ +534 (0.5 unit)

Betting: July 19th (LCK, LPL, LEC)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 6 Day 2

Game 1: 41:08, 15 kills to 3 kills

Game 2: 30:38, 11 kills to 4 kills

Game 1: 26:37, 14 kills to 3 kills

Game 2: 27:53, 11 kills to 2 kills

Game 1: 30:39, 11 kills to 1 kill

Game 2: 25:57, 11 kills to 5 kills

These are SK Telecom's last three matches against Gen.G, Hanwha Life, and and KT Rolster. That's six in a row under 18.5 kills and five out of six under 31 minutes against bad teams that are all better than Jin Air. You'd say regression to the mean should kick in at some point but I tend to read this as SKT are in full on New England Patriots "FU" mode and unfortuantely for Jin Air they're in the way of the warpath. SKT are more or less in a situation, because of their Spring Split championship and 90 circuit points, where they have to simply make the playoffs and it would stave off a lot of scenarios that would prevent them from having at least the 3rd Korean seed for Worlds. I won't go into all of them right now but getting into playoffs would help a lot and winning a round of playoffs to get the 40 circuit points would eliminate a lot more. The point I'm getting at is that SKT are motivated and that they are, by no means, guaranteed a spot at Worlds just because they won the Spring split. Combine that with the slow start they had to this season and SKT are in full on tryhard mode right now.

I'm going super heavy on the unders here both as a trend play and because I think SKT are going to just speed run Jin Air and I don't think they can afford to use subs and punt a game here. Don't  be fooled by Jin Air/SKT series of the past this is going to be a biblical beatdown.

(from Leaguepedia)

O/U: Map 1 UNDER 31:00 @ -125 (3 units)

O/U: Map 1 UNDER 18.5 total kills @  -116 (3 units)

O/U: Map 2 UNDER 31:00 @ -125 (3 units)

O/U: Map 2 UNDER 18.5 total kills @ -116 (3 units)

The last team these two teams met it was a bit of an awkward and blood game one followed by a relatively routine whooping in game two. I expect more of the game two vibe this time around. The counterargument to this is that KT Rolster are currently tied with Hanwha Life and could potentially face relegations once more without some wins before season end. There's a chance they're extra motivated for this matchup and they do actually lineup well against Afreeca on paper with their strong solo lanes. The difference to me is that Kiin has been so much better than Smeb and Dread has outperformed any iteration of KT's jungle situation. I'm playing this one aggressive. We're getting plus money on Afreeca to sweep which I think is far and away the most likely outcome here. Afreeca are also going to be motivated with Gen.G and SKT biting at their heels for the 5th playoff spot in a ridiculously competitive LCK Summer. A couple weeks ago I had Afreeca as a dark horse to win the Summer split. That hasn't changed. I think this team is doing a lot of things right and their playstyle can punish this region so so badly if they're executing well. I think Afreeca are just as good as most of the top table teams if not better than some. Love me some Afreeca Freecs!

Spread: Afreeca -1.5 @ +102 (4.5 units BOOK MAX)

O/U: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -109 (1 unit)

O/U: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -109 (1 unit)

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LPL Summer 2019 - Week 7 Day 4

OMG are perplexing. Their individual talent makes me want to believe that this team should at least be competitive compared to teams like LGD and Vici. I keep billing this team as one that "punches up" to their competition. That's been the case in about half their games. OMG are still very inconsistent but I think they've shown us they're a bit better than a Vici team that looks like it's going to finish dead last in the LPL. I'm not sure if and when Vici will get a match win this split and against who that will be but I am fairly certain that they are the worst team in the LPL. That's not to say they haven't shown some spunk this split. They managed to take a game off of Invictus on Monday, something that we've grown all too acustomed to IG doing against bad teams, and took a game off of TOP in week one was well. Southwind is a quality player and one of the better supports in the league but I just don't see any other redeeming characteristic to this team. They finished the Spring split with a 2-13 match record and 12-28 game score. Currently they're 0-8 and 4-16. Trends would tell you that this team is going to win at some point so I wouldn't fault you for taking Vici here. I just have a lot of hope for this OMG squad and we now know that Icon is back in for this match (via Twitter).  I just don't see how Vici deal with Curse and Icon, two budding stars with a lot to prove with their solo lanes and jungle setup currently. 

I'd advise you not to tail on this as this is more of a gut feeling/eye test bet. OMG should sweep this but they're a little to inconsistent for me to like that so I'm... I can't believe I'm doing this but I'm going to lay -200 and take OMG. This line opened at -244 so I actually think we're getting some value with OMG. I could totally understand taking Vici here. This is essentially their Super Bowl (that or RW or LGD). They also have more roster continuity but I'm placing a chip on the stars to perform here.

Moneyline: OMG -200 (3 units)

Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +134 (1 unit)

TOP Starters: Moyu, Aki, Knight, Loken, QiuQiu
LGD Starters: Lies, Kui, Yuuki, Kramer, RD

Aki and QiuQiu debut in spectacular fashion completely dominating JDG. They weren't carried by the TOP starters either they were creating plays on their own and looked phenominal. Moyu got some play in two games at Rift Rivals and played three games during the Spring split but has yet to play in the Summer besides Rift Rivals. LGD is starting Kui in his third game this split at jungle and moving their jungler RD to support in what I can only call weird flex but ok.

TOP just wiped the floor with JDG and that was with two emergency subs at jungle and support. Aki and QiuQiu looked very impressive in their debut (QiuQiu on an off role, he plays ADC). I was really impressed to see them so quickly and seemlessly integrate. TOP honestly looked like the same team and that's really impressive not just for the subs but for the three starters to look like nothing was different. The point is TOP are legit and whether or not they start subs or not no longer scares me. They weren't a team that did that much anyway (this was the first time this season) but I'm not confident that even if they rest the starters against bad teams like LGD that TOP won't miss a beat. TOP are also one of these teams that we label as one that doesn't take games off against bad teams like Invictus or RNG tend to do sometimes. The style they play isn't as volatile and is much more consistent by design. 

I put this wager in earlier this week and while I'm a bit scared we get a more down to earth performance from the two rookies Aki and QiuQiu in their second outing, I'm actually a bit more concerned with Moyu. TOP should still be able to take care of this. LGD aren't marching out their main lineup either and honestly LGD don't even really have a main lineup to speak of with all the turmoil within their roster this season. Knight and Loken are still worlds better than any other player in this game and I'm rather respectful of Yuuki and Kramer. Knight and Loken are world class, elite players and I think with the performance we saw from Aki and QiuQiu we don't need to consider them a liability. I'm not hedging this and even though I think one of these games could get competitive I think TOP are still very likely to 2-0 this so we're going to let it ride. 

Spread: TOP -1.5 @ -143 (4 units)

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LEC Summer 2019 - Week 5 Day 1

Figured I'd discuss the Fnatic/Rogue game since that's the talk of the town with the news of Rekkles sitting for the day and Nemesis moving to ADC to allow MagiFelix to start a match. There are a few angles at play here. No this does not mean Rekkles is being phased out. No it doesn't mean he's done, he's literally starting again Saturday as per their announcement. This is simply a chance for them to see their developmental players on the stage while they're in a comfortable place in the standings and with some time before playoffs. I also think people tend to overrate substitutes being in. Sometimes the subs are extra dialed in because it's a chance to earn a job somewhere. Sometimes they're just fine players. And still other times, like in the case of Fnatic, the position they're playing isn't as big a factor. Look, Fnatic have a long and storied history of exceptional carry players mostly Febiven, Caps, and Rekkles. Rekkles is the entrenched veteran star but the truth is this iteration of Fnatic is fascilitated by top, jungle, and support. Fnatic haven't been a carry centric team all calendar year and even last year. There is a difference between having good carries and being carry centric. Splyce and Vitality are carry centric, Fnatic are not.

The reason I'm saying all of this is that I think people are too quickly jumping to the automatic conclusion that this is a lock for Rogue. Rogue have looked good, Fnatic are shifting a position and starting a minor league player. It's understandable people have this reaction. I'm simply telling you that the carry roles on Fnatic are very plug and play. It's not a high demand position for that team and I expect Fnatic likely won't miss a beat. THAT SAID.... I am on Rogue here. I was on Rogue for half a unit before this news broke simply based on momentum and line value for a team that's playing confident and looking improved. I'm adding just one unit to my play on this. I'm not going berserk. I actually think Fnatic still have a good chance to win this game in fact I'd say they might be favored still but given the situation and the odds I'm still going to take Rogue.

Moneyline: Rogue +276 (1.5 units, 0.5 early, 1 add on)

I'm also taking Vitality at +103. We talked about it on the podcast but Vitality are going to remain competitive and improve regardless of whether or not they make playoffs this split. Oh, and by the way, they're currently tied for the 6th spot so let's not rule that out so fast. I think SK Gaming are stagnant and Vitality are improving and will end up somewhere in that 3-6 range we had them at before the season started. Schalke are a team I was high on but they too seem to be stagnating, the difference is that they have good enough players that they'll likely still be one of the better teams in the league. I have these two teams rated evenly. It's a bit agnostic to their performance this split. Before the season started I had them more or less even. I also think that stylistically Schalke have trouble with teams like Vitality that force the issue early. I like the dogs for a unit here.

Moneyline: Vitality +103 (1 unit)

John made a really good point on the podcast about how Origen tend to handle bad teams even if we don't trust them to beat the elite teams. That's exactly what a good 3rd-5th place team does most of the time. Origen are very by the book and consistent and SK Gaming to me have looked worse than the three wins they've accrued this split. I actually think SK look like one of the bottom teams in the LEC. Consistent and good against overrated and poor I'm going to take Origen laying the -204 here for my best of one max three units. It feels kind of bad to be honest but I'm confident it's the right side.

Moneyline: Origen -204 (3 units)

(UPDATE: I realized I accidentally had this wager in twice so... I guess we're 6 units on Origen!)

I could see the argument for putting a lottery ticket on Excel at +554. That's a pretty obscene number for a best of one but I'm just going to pass it. Hard to bet against G2. I'm going to just pass on Spyce/Misfits but if you think the new Misfits lineup can surprise then go for it. I also think if you look forward to Saturday that you should probably consider your narrative. If you think Misfits new lineup is good and takes down Splyce then you're going to lose line value on them Saturday so bet it now. If you think they're good enough to win Saturday but lose against Splyce maybe just wait and you could get some points your way.

No wager (lean Excel ML)

No wager (Splyce/Misfits)

---------------------

Parlays:

Parlay (2): Afreeca ML + TOP ML @ -179 (5 units)

Parlay (2): Afreeca -1.5 + TOP -1.5 @ +243 (2 units)

Parlay (3): SKT -1.5 + Afreeca -1.5 + TOP -1.5 @ +305 (1 unit)

Eastern Weekend Slate Favorites ML Parlay (7): 
Afreeca ML vs KT + TOP ML + Kingzone ML + Griffin ML + Afreeca ML vs JAG + Sandbox ML + SKT ML @ +407 (1 unit)

Betting: July 18th (LCK)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 6 Day 1

As most of you know by know I'm just avoiding Gen.G but I'll still write on this game anyway.

Before discussing this specific matchup I need to dispel a few things about Gen.G. First, the Volibear support is not a new thing, it's something that's been picking up steam in high level solo queue in both Korea and China but Gen.G are getting all the credit for "innovating" it because they just happened to be the first to try it in pro play in a great spot for it. Was it out of character for them? Yea sure it was but I also don't think it's a particularly groundbreaking strategy. Second, is this idea that Gen.G are a changed team just because they've shown any proactivity whatsoever in a few games. A couple games does not a new team make and I'd bet a large sum of money that they turn back into a pumpkin at some point. Third, this team is still the same team we've seen all year, Fly or not. Yes they've been better but they still just want to scale, still just want to let you screw up, and still aren't a particularly great defensive team. It's a bad combination.

Gen.G are particularly volatile right now so if you believe in variance then this is actually a great spot to take them. They've actually looked pretty good in their most recent series although I'll admit at least one of these games was spoon fed to them with an absolutely absymal draft. CuVee does this thing for about two weeks every summer season over the course of his career where he looks like the best top laner on the planet and then swiftly turns back into a pumpkin. It's been about a week and a half. If you want to play the guessing game of when that happens feel free but I won't be. The other angle to this series is that Sandbox haven't looked too sharp in their last two outings and their drafts have been suspect. If you think their coaching staff gets their draft priorities straight and they don't dig their own grave then I absolutely love Sandbox here. My opinion (and that's why you're here isn't it?) is that Sandbox don't make the same mistakes again, stop doing what all the good teams in Korea are doing and just scale and wait for mistakes, and absolutely take it to Gen.G here. I expect Sandbox to come in with an uptempo gameplan perhaps around Olaf or Lee Sin and just completely blow Gen.G out of the water.

For reasons stated last week I'm staying away from Gen.G for the time being. I simply can't get anything right with this team and I'm done smashing my head into a brick wall.

No wager (strong lean Sandbox -1.5)

This line has since moved to -588 / -1.5 @ -192 which, honestly I'd still fire on. Kingzone look like the best or second best team in Korea right now and after shutting down the red hot DAMWON's win streak it's pretty hard to argue that this team isn't great. Hanwha are the exact opposite of great. As a matter of fact, while Hanwha might not be as bad as Jin Air I'd argue they're even more disappointing. Hanwha have players and they just have no identity whatsoever. It's frustrating. I'm not saying they'd be a playoff team or anything like that with this roster but they could at least be competitive. Instead they're lethargic and outside of a couple instances of random aggression just seem to kind of roll over and die in games. Kingzone should wipe the floor here. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth this is easy.

Spread: Kingzone -1.5 @ -147 (5 units)(early wager)

-------------

Parlays:

Unfortunately I didn't get parlay bets in before the Kingzone line went through the roof but I'm still going to fire these off. Kingzone and SKT destroying the two bottom teams is about as surefire a thing as we get in League of Legends anymore so we're going to take the opportunity to fire heavy on some heavy favorite parlays something I've had a ton of success with this year (especially as a way to work around limits)

Parlay (2): Sandbox -1.5 + Kingzone -1.5 @ +247 (1 unit)

Parlay (2): Kingzone -1.5 + TOP -1.5 @ +158 (2 units)

Parlay (2): Kingzone -1.5 + Afreeca -1.5 @ +207 (2 units)

Parlay (3): Kingzone -1.5 + SKT -1.5 (tmw) @ -127 (3 units)

Parlay (3): Kingzone -1.5 + Afreeca -1.5 (tmw) + SKT -1.5 (tmw) @ +262 (1 unit)

The Thursday-Friday Sweep Parlay (4): 

Sandbox -1.5 + Kingzone -1.5 + SKT -1.5 + Afreeca 1.5 @ +726 (0.5 unit)

The Non-Gen.G Thursday-Friday Sweep Parlay (4):
Kingzone -1.5 + SKT -1.5 + Afreeca -1.5 + TOP -1.5 @ +516 (0.5 unit)

Betting: July 17th ( LPL)

LPL Summer 2019 - Week 7 Day 3

This is not an overreaction to LNG's decisive loss to EDG. I put this bet in before that match even took place. I've talked a lot about LNG and how I don't necessarily think they're a bad team. In fact they've rather impressed me this split and I don't think their hot start was a fluke. That said I do think that they're going to regress and that this team will end up somewhere in the 7-9th range in the LPL. They had a few surprise wins against good teams but aren't exactly a clean or perfect squad. They make a lot of mistakes. 

OMG are sort of in the opposite camp. They're a team most people were down on but they added top laner Curse who looks to be a budding star and in combination with their star mid laner Icon now have duel threat solo lanes that are wreaking havoc on their enemies. Curse looks good... like really really good and Icon we were high on last season. I think OMG are on the up and up and might challenge for a playoff spot. OMG also happen to be a team that is rather proactive. I like this quite a bit because it gives them a better chance to upset stronger teams than say a team like Victory Five who rely more on straight up laning power. If OMG could clean their macro play and decision making up a little I'd actually like this team as a favorite to make playoffs. They remind me quite a bit of DAMWON, perhaps not as good as DAMWON but the idea of individually gifted players coming together as they figure it out is intriguing to me and I like them as upset kings. This team can only get better.

To me these are two teams trending opposite directions. I'm not saying LNG are going to crash and burn but I do think they're going to start losing. OMG are looking to progress up the standings if they can keep this momentum up and continually improve. By the season's end I think these two teams will be right near each other in the standings battling for a playoff spot. So why is this line this far apart? Perception. This is an absolutely obscene value to me because I actually think this matchup is very VERY close to 50/50. If I was handicapping this game I'd have LNG something like -125 or -130. They're the better and more consistent team so maybe I'd bump that up to -140 but I absolutely LOVE OMG to upset here. The spot is great with both teams trending opposite directions and OMG are built to have spike performances and I think this could be one. As good as Plex has been this season since coming over from Korea I think Icon is one of the young players on these lower ranked teams that people aren't respecting yet. Icon is really REALLY good and I actually think with the way Curse has been performing in his first few games he could potentially stomp on Flandre. The bototm lane I'll give to LNG no matter what OMG marches out but I think the top side of the map for OMG could potentially just run away with a few games. I love OMG to take a game here and am going to put a unit on them to win this outright. This is a classic case of record creating a deception. LNG are good but not great. OMG look bad but should be significantly better moving forward with the changes and momentum they've gained recently.

Spread: OMG +1.5 maps @ -139 (2 units)

Moneyline: OMG +211 (1 unit)

The other day we took the Rogue Warriors moneyline against Victory Five citing the spot and momentum for RW and expected regression for Victory Five. Rogue Warriors didn't exactly look great in this series but did manage to take a game. Victory Five didn't really do a lot to create advantages on their own they were just sort of spoon fed to them from RW for the most part. Victory Five are very similar to JDG in that their solo lanes are where they get the majority of their advantages. Those that don't know, V5 are more or less running two solo lanes instead of dedicated top and mid laners. Windy and Mole have been performing adequately in this situation and it presents a unique challenge for certain teams in the draft however I think this is more solvable than people are giving it credit for. They haven't really played a tank in any role and while tank top laners aren't exactly a meta decision at the moment for most professional teams I think it's pretty safe to say that this isn't as "unpredictable" as it seems so let's all cool the jets on these "innovators."

Victory Five have played, in my opinion, two and a half difficult matchups so far this season. One was FunPlus who they impressively took a game off of and the other was BiliBili who they were completely destroyed by. Coincidentally BiliBili are built in much the same way EDG are. The half game was Invictus without Baolan and Victory Five defeated them 2-1 but as we all remember that IG squad looked checked out and just going through the motions. Nonetheless a noteworthy win. The point I'm making is the Victory Five haven't exactly had the hardest schedule and while they might be solidifying themselves as a potential "better than the rest" squad and possibly a lower playoff seed they simply don't measure up to the elite teams in this league and Edward is an elite team right now.

Victory Five rarely creates on their own so I don't even like them to be able to punch up to higher competition unlike somebody like OMG who I think are proactive enough to create on their own and have exceptional solo lane talent. Windy and Mole are good not great and in a league with such deep solo lane talent that they're going to have a tough time doing their best JDG impression. Hell JDG are having a tough time doing a JDG impression. EDG just whooped on the similarly constructed and hot starting LNG and I fully expect them to lay the smack down on another team that's had a solid start that's due for regression in Victory Five. 

Spread: EDG -1.5 maps@ +119 (2 units, temp MAX)(initial bet)

Spread: EDG -1.5 maps@ +103 (0.5 units) add on

------------------

Parlays:

Parlay (2): EDG -1.5 + OMG +1.5 @ +249 (1 unit)

Parlay (2): EDG -1.5 + OMG ML @ +537 (0.5 unit)

Parlay (3): EDG ML + OMG +1.5 + Kingzone -1.5 (tmw) @ +290 (1 unit)

Parlay (3): EDG -1.5 + OMG +1.5 + Kingzone -1.5 @ +487 (0.5 unit)

"Long shot" Eastern Strong picks Parlay (7): 
EDG -1.5 + OMG +1.5 + Kingzone -1.5 + SKT -1.5 + Afreeca -1.5 + OMG ML (vs Vici) + TOP -1.5
@ +3645 (0.25 unit)

Betting: July 16th (LPL)

LPL Summer 2019 - Week 7 Day 2

This is a tad aggressive given the abysmal start we've seen from Dominus but the general idea of this wager is that I don't think World Elite are this much better than anybody. I'm not typically a pure value bettor. It's a factor, and a large one at that, but it's not something I'm blindly loyal to. I think in this case we're getting such an overwhelming value that I can't say not to firing on it. 

Dominus have three game wins this season. I think this team lacks leadership and their macro is a bit suspect because of it but they do have really solid players. I look at Dominus as similar to Victory Five. They've got the chops they just don't always use them in the most efficient way. Both teams had good starts to their Spring split and then were "figured out" over time but I just can't see Dominus being this poor. They were 21-14 in games last split and finished the season fourth in overall game score. Notably, although it was a long time ago back in week one of Spring, Dominus won a slugfest game one against WE and then utterly stomped them in game two with... Lulu mid... 

The point I'm making is that while I think Dominus are going to need to make some changes for this roster to challenge for the top half of the LPL we saw that just good players was a good enough formula to get them to a solid record in the Spring. I also think the efficiency metrics for these two teams are much closer than this spread implies. I don't want to blame Dominus' schedule for their poor start as they lost to Suning and punted a game to Vici but if you look at the rest of this schedule they've faced all of the top teams besides RNG (Note: IG was playing the subs so they're not the same strength.) 

This is a combination of regression to the mean and aggressive value betting. Dominus aren't a last place team. They're better than Vici, I think they're better than Rogue Warriors, LGD, maybe not OMG anymore but honestly after those teams I think its JDG and WE and Victory Five and quite frankly I think Dominus could end up better than all of those. This team has had a bad start and while they got smashed by BiliBili in their first game coming off the break I'm confident that they at least take a game here and think there is about a 50/50 chance they take this series outright against a WE team that I feel is constantly overrated. 

Moneyline: Dominus +153 (1 unit) (early wager)

Moneyline: Dominus +172 (1.5 units) 

Spread: Dominus +1.5 @ -164 (4 units)

Prop: WE to win ZERO maps @ +402 (0.5 units)

Prop: OVER 2.5 maps played @ +120 (1 unit)

It's really important for those that actively watch league to hunt for lines in advance when they can because the value is obscene. I unfortunately write these in a structure and outside of the ocassional early tip on Twitter can't write up this early a lot of the time so you don't get to always see the same lines but this is a great example. I got this line at BiliBili +115. It's actually since moved to as high as -154 for BiliBili. To me JDG not only look like a hot mess since Rift Rivals, but a hot mess in general. They just got utterly destroyed by two emergency subs in the top and jungle for TOP and while TOP have exceptional laners, JDG do as well and it just hasn't shown recently. I don't know what's going on with this team. Perhaps it's just that they are who we thought they were. As a matter of fact I actually do think that's the case. I've been saying all along that this JDG team is tremendously overrated and they caught lightning in a bottle and made the most miracle of miracle runs to the finals last split. I hate to say it but I told you so.

Not all is lost. JDG do have an excellent top half of the map... when it's functioning. Flawless is back in for this game so perhaps the Kanavi experiment might be over or Flawless just needed some rest. The thing is BiliBili and TOP are built very similarly. They have exceptional solo laners, intelligent and patient macro play to force you into errors on the map and unfortunately for the ever clumsy JDG, they often play into these types of errors. This is a really bad stylistic matchup for JDG. In matches where JDG's solo lanes can't get enormous advantages they just fold either to mistakes or their bottom lane being a huge liability. BiliBili are a smart team that isn't going to play your rough and tumble non-sense and feed you kills AND their solo lanes are just as good if not better than JDG's. 

I think BiliBili completely stomp this game. You could argue that JDG have to turn it around at some point but I'm treating JDG as if they have always been this bad and just caught lightning in a bottle. I'll admit they performed better than expected at Rift Rivals so perhaps that's a ray of sunshine to hang your hat on but this team is ultimately a bad team that I think will miss playoffs this season. I think the spiral has already started and that they're more or less only going to beat teams that have worse solo laners than they do and there aren't even many of those in the LPL anymore. This is a Dominique Wilkins slam dunk! I even think it's fine to bet BiliBili at -154 and I might add on to this.

Pick of the Week!

Moneyline: BiliBili +115 (3.5 units) (early wager)(POTW)

Prop: Exact BiliBili 2-0 @ +242 (1 unit) (early wager)

-------------------

Parlays:

Parlay (2): BiliBili ML + Dominus +1.5 @ +175 (1 unit)

Parlay (2): BiliBili -1.5 + Dominus ML @ +662 (0.5 units)

Parlay (3): BiliBili ML + Dominus +1.5 + EDG ML @ +263 (1 unit)

Parlay (3): BiliBili ML + Dominus +1.5 + EDG -1.5 @ +449 (0.5 units)

Betting: July 14th (LCK, LPL, NA LCS)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 5 Day 5

This one has moved a ton since Griffin's 2-0 loss but I also think a lot of people had the same thought I did and that's that Afreeca don't deserve to be as big a dog as they were against anybody. This is also a challenging matchup stylistically for Griffin since Afreeca are one of the better uptempo teams in the world. I need to be crystal clear about this and I said it on the podcast this week but to me this isn't an overreaction to Griffin's loss to Gen.G. Gen.G played the best series they've played all year long and I didn't even think Griffin played that badly. It happens. I will say, however, that Gen.G just exploited something that hopefully a lot of the LCK teams knew already and that's the Sword has just been a priority player this split. It's fine and all but it's predictable so it will be interesting to see if Griffin mix it up or if Afreeca choose to attack in the same way.

The long and short of it is that I think Griffin win this series but that the odds were way too off when I bet this. I consider Griffin one of the best teams in the world but I also think Afreeca are. They're one of the best uptempo teams on the planet in any region and I think that's a potent threat. This will be a measure of Afreeca potent offense against Griffin's stoic defense and could go either way. At these odds I'd probably still fire on this but I'm not adding to my previous wager.

Moneyline: Afreeca +472 (0.75 units)

Spread: Afreeca +1.5 @ +150 (1.5 units)

Gen.G SHOULD 2-0 this but this team has a knack for playing down to their competition. Hanwha have looked absolutely dreadful but as I mentioned on Twitter the other day I need to just limit my exposure to Gen.G. I seem to never have the right read on this team. They've taken more of my money over the last two years than any other team on the planet and after Griffin on Friday you can consider me a little tilted. 

I'm passing on this but the correct play is probably Gen.G 2-0 at these odds. We're not getting enough for HLE to take a game to take the +1.5. 

No wager

---------------------------------

LPL Summer 2019 - Week 6 Day 3

We discussed this on the podcast where EDG were my pick of the week. EDG are a top five team in the LPL to me. I know they don't really look like it recently with Hope coming in and out at ADC  but I think a combination of the time off and lineup swaps has dulled the perception of this team. LNG are sort of the opposite. They've impressed me and I don't think their hot start was a fluke or anything like that. They've fixed a lot of their problems. That said I still think this team is due for some regression and because of their hot start we're getting a TON of value on EDG here. While I think the concept is overstated most times I do think the break almost had to be worse for LNG, sort of in the same vein as OpTic in NA. When you're running hot and overperforming a break is the worst thing you want to see. It's not really affecting my wager that much but it's just an additional factor to consider. 

I think EDG are a way better team. They have better players in every single position. We will start to see them settle themselves into the top of the table with this series.

 As Chris said on the cast, "You can change your logo, you can shed your skin, but you're still Snake." 

Pick of the week!

Moneyline: EDG -132 (5.5 units, Book MAX)

Spread: EDG -1.5 @ +192 (1.5 units, Book MAX)

UPDATE: Aki and QiuQiu have been announced as the jungle and support for TOP and Kanavi in jungle for JDG. I'm going to half hedge all of my exposure on TOP, parlays and straight wagers. I tend to give more credit to subs than most people do unless it's one that's a known liability. I still think TOP can take this down but I'm just going to cut back on my exposure. Sucks but it is what it is.

UPDATE 2: Apparently the TOP sub situation was more of an emergency than a week off. Xx sick and Ben having visa issues post Rift Rivals

An interesting matchup between two teams coming back from Rift Rivals. As I mentioned the other day I actually thought JDG looked better than I thought they would at Rift Rivals but that doesn't mean I think they're a good team. TOP are a good team and almost more importantly they're a disciplined team that takes care of business against weaker teams. TOP have a hard time beating the other elite teams in the LPL but they tend to smash anyone we consider worse than they are. I also think this is a stylistically challenging matchup for JDG who typically rely on their solo lanes and jungle to get advantages. TOP are one of the few teams in the LPL that can just straight up outlane JDG. 369 isn't always impressive but he's an incredibly good neutralizer in much the same vein as 2018 Impact and Knight and Xx are perhaps the best mid/jungle duo in the LPL. 

TOP are not only a stronger team but have had extra time off compared to JDG who had to play earlier this week and looked pretty awful in their first series back. It wouldn't surprise me to see JDG take a game but we're getting good enough odds on the TOP sweep that I'm going to fire on both the sweep and the moneyline here. 

Moneyline: TOP -200 (6 units)

Spread: TOP -1.5 maps @ +110 (2.5 units)

-------------------

NA LCS Summer 2019 - Week 6 Day 2

I have a surprising amount of action on the NA LCS tomorrow and even had some today. My biggest weekend of the Summer split in NA from a liability standpoint. First up tomorrow we have Liquid and FlyQuest. I like the momentum and confidence FlyQuest is playing with but I'm not going to bet them against a Liquid team that's two cuts above the rest of this league. I'll be hard pressed to bet against Liquid the rest of the season.

Cloud 9 and TSM I put a bet in on before Cloud 9's embarassing loss to Echo Fox just now so there is a good chance you'll find a better number than I did. I'd assume Svenskeren is going to play after that performance yesterday. C9 usually play well with their subs but Blaber's last few times out haven't looked so hot. The thing is it's not like TSM's jungle situation will be any better. I had a best of one max three units on Cloud 9 to win this before this performance and while I'm a little less confident after today's match I also think we're going to get better odds on them once the books reopen. TSM aren't a great team either even if it means they're probably a playoff team in NA. I consider Cloud 9 to be in their own tier below Liquid but above the rest of the LCS when they're on and after today I expect them to turn it back on tomorrow so I'm not going to hedge my previous bet. I'd still bet it considering we'll prolly get something more like -125 now.

UPDATE: This line is now C9 -115/TSM -110. LOVE C9 at that number

Moneyline: Cloud 9 -145 (3 units)

Golden Guardians just look off. I can't put a finger on what it is but there's just something about this team that screams stagnation. They're a smart macro team but they just haven't been getting lane leads so it puts a lot of pressure on their macro and jungle play to manufacture leads which creates an inconsistent team. CLG are firing on all cylinders. Maybe that just means "are a playoff team" in NA because I'm not sure how much room this team has to grow but they're solid, consistent, and clean. I'm not sure I'd bet this at -175 but I got in at -159 for a unit.

Moneyline: CLG -159 (1 unit)

As I'm writing this 100T and OpTic are in champion select but we're almost certainly going to get some value on this after the Echo Fox beat C9. Echo Fox didn't win that game nearly as much as Cloud 9 threw it to me. Cloud 9 looked like they were clowning around a bit too much yesterday. Their heads didn't appear to be in the game, chasing kills, making cheesy picks in game (not picks in draft), and just generally looking distracted. I absolutely love 100 Thieves in this spot regardless of how this OpTic series turns out. I think if they lose we're going to get a TON of value off of this with the combined Echo Fox win + 100 Thieves loss. If that's the case I'm going to actually fire on this and exceed my best of one limit of three units to add one or two more. 100 Thieves might not make playoffs but they've found their lane and look a lot better. Even last week against a tough schedule they looked great in their losses. Echo Fox are the worst team in the league. I'm in on 100 Thieves regardless of the result. I put this bet in earlier this week but might pile on depending on how the odds change.

Moneyline: 100 Thieves -182 (3 units, might add more)

I love OpTic here. I think people are assuming this teams hot start was a fluke but I think this team is better than public perception. They are no longer one dimensional from a composition standpoint and even if their jungle/mid focus is predictable it's difficult to stop when you have a player like Crown involved. Clutch look like a team with no direction. I thought the promotion of their assistant coach might change some things but that sort of thing doesn't happen overnight and it appears that they're not approaching draft any differently. I know TSM cheesed them a bit with the Azir top but Clutch are becoming predictable. They need to simplify things and just play easier to execute compositions but they don't appear to think that. I love OpTic here. Again I'm higher on them than most people are but Clutch look like a bottom three team and OpTic are firmly a playoff team and a tier better. It's rare we get odds this good it's just because of OpTic's recent losses.

Moneyline: OpTic -149 (3 units)

----------------

Parlays:

I'll be putting a handful of parlays out on the Eastern slate because I feel rather strongly about it. I'll be combining various moneylines, spreads, focused on the four LCK and LPL matches.

Parlay (2): EDG ML + TOP ML @ +166 (2 units)

Parlay (4): Afreeca +1.5 + GenG ML + EDG ML + TOP ML @ +647 (1 unit)

"Exacta" Parlay (4): TOP -1.5 + Gen.G -1.5 + EDG -1.5 + Afreeca +1.5 @ +2886 (0.1 unit)

Parlay (3): Gen.G ML + EDG ML + TOP ML @ +261 (2 units)

Parlay (3): TOP -1.5 + EDG -1.5 + GenG -1.5 @ +1343 (0.5 units)

Parlay (4): Griffin -1.5 + GenG -1.5 + EDG -1.5 + TOP -1.5 @ +2338 (0.25 units)

Parlay (3): Afreeca ML  + EDG ML + TOP ML @ +1002 (0.25 units)

NA Parlays will be later once books reopen.

"HEDGE" Parlays for TOP news:

Parlay (2): JDG +1.5 + EDG ML @ +167 (1 unit)